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I am a professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University and author of Bayesian Data Analysis (with John Carlin, Hal Stern, and Donald Rubin), Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks (with Deborah Nolan), Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models (with Jennifer Hill), and, most recently, Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do (with David Park, Boris Shor, Joe Bafumi, and Jeronimo Cortina).

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« Some ESP-bashing red meat for you ScienceBlogs readers out there | Main | "Finding signal from noise": Dr. Bancel responds »

"It would be as if any discussion of intercontinental navigation required a preliminary discussion of why the evidence shows that the earth is not flat"

Posted on: November 15, 2009 3:36 PM, by Andrew Gelman

I've been ranting lately about how I don't like the term "risk aversion," and I was thinking it might help to bring up this post from last year:

This discussion from Keynes (from Robert Skidelsky, linked from Steve Hsu) reminds me of a frustrating conversation I've sometimes had with economists regarding the concept of "risk aversion."

Risk aversion means many things, but in particular it is associated with attiitudes such as preferring a certain $30 to a 50/50 chance of having either $20 or $40. The standard model for this set of attitudes is to assume a nonlinear function for money. It is well known that reasonable nonlinear utility functions do not explain this sort of $20/30/40 attitude (see section 5 of this little article, for example); nonetheless the curving utility function always comes up in discussion, requiring me to waste a few minutes before going on, explaining why it doesn't explain the phenomenon.

It would be as if any discussion of intercontinental navigation required a preliminary discussion of why the evidence shows that the earth is not flat. . . .

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