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I am a professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University and author of Bayesian Data Analysis (with John Carlin, Hal Stern, and Donald Rubin), Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks (with Deborah Nolan), Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models (with Jennifer Hill), and, most recently, Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do (with David Park, Boris Shor, Joe Bafumi, and Jeronimo Cortina).
January 27, 2010
Following up on our recent discussion (see also here) about estimates of war deaths, Megan Price pointed me to this report, where she, Anita Gohdes, Megan Price, and Patrick Ball write: Several media organizations including Reuters, Foreign Policy and New...
Posted by Andrew Gelman at 3:45 AM • 0 Comments • 0 TrackBacks
January 26, 2010
You've all heard about how you can predict all sorts of things, from movie grosses to flu trends, using search results. I earlier blogged about the research of Yahoo's Sharad Goel, Jake Hofman, Sebastien Lahaie, David Pennock, and Duncan Watts...
Posted by Andrew Gelman at 10:49 AM • 0 Comments • 0 TrackBacks
January 23, 2010
First the scientific story, then the journalist, then my thoughts....
Posted by Andrew Gelman at 3:44 PM • 1 Comments • 0 TrackBacks
Alan Turing is said to have invented a game that combines chess and middle-distance running. It goes like this: You make your move, then you run around the house, and the other player has to make his or her move...
Posted by Andrew Gelman at 2:47 PM • 4 Comments • 0 TrackBacks
January 22, 2010
Stephen Dubner reports on an observational study of bike helmet laws, a study by Christopher. Carpenter and Mark Stehr that compares bicycling and accident rates among children among states that did and did not have helmet laws. In reading the...
Posted by Andrew Gelman at 3:43 PM • 5 Comments • 0 TrackBacks
I posted a note the other day about the difference between internal and external coherence of political ideology. The basic idea is that, a particular person or small group can have an ideology (supporting positions A, B, C, and D,...
Posted by Andrew Gelman at 3:42 PM • 0 Comments • 0 TrackBacks
January 15, 2010
One of the most fascinating things about political ideology is the following juxtaposition: 1. An ideology typically makes complete sense to the person holding the ideology--that is, it is internally coherent. 2. Different people have all sorts of different ideologies;...
Posted by Andrew Gelman at 4:44 AM • 11 Comments • 0 TrackBacks
January 14, 2010
Interesting. The numbers should be rounded to the nearest percent--in a survey, you'll never get the precision to say anything like "45.2%"--but otherwise it's a clean display. Follow the link above for context and further discussion....
Posted by Andrew Gelman at 8:52 AM • 2 Comments • 0 TrackBacks
January 10, 2010
Coblogger John Sides quotes a probability calculation by Eric Lawrence that, while reasonable on a mathematical level, illustrates a sort of road-to-error-is-paved-with-good-intentions sort of attitude that bothers me, and that I see a lot of in statistics and quantitative social...
Posted by Andrew Gelman at 4:12 PM • 2 Comments • 0 TrackBacks
January 8, 2010
One thing I learned in econ class in 11th grade was that government policy should be counter-cyclical (spending more in recessions and cutting back in boom times), but that there's a lot of pressure to be pro-cyclical, which will tend...
Posted by Andrew Gelman at 3:37 AM • 1 Comments • 0 TrackBacks
denialism blog 02.14.2012
respectful insolence 02.14.2012
uncertain principles 02.13.2012
confessions of a science librarian 02.13.2012
starts with a bang! 02.13.2012
