Casaubon's Book


This is an interesting paper indeed – a new PNAS paper argues that before an abrupt climate change, there is a characteristic SLOWING DOWN of climate change that might be a warning sign:

Putting our results in an even wider perspective, it is important that slowing down is a universal property of systems approaching a tipping point. This implies that our techniques might in principle be used to construct operational early warning systems for critical transitions in a wider range of complex systems where tipping points are suspected to exist, ranging from disease dynamics and physiology to social and ecological systems.

Well worth a read.  Hat tip to Stuart Staniford for pointing it out.


  1. #1 Gary Rondeau
    March 13, 2013

    Basically the same mathematical concepts show up in Steve Keen’s work with economic modeling. His models predicted a “great moderation” as a prelude to an economic depression, much like we experienced in the run-up to the “Great Recession”.
    It’s nice to see math work across such disparate subjects!

  2. #2 hit
    March 14, 2013


  3. #3 Rebecca
    March 14, 2013

    There’s a reason for the phrase “the calm before the storm.” It’s not just a cliche.

  4. #4 vidare till sidan
    March 15, 2013

    You actually make it seem so easy with your presentation but I find this matter to be actually something that I think I would never understand. It seems too complicated and extremely broad for me. I am looking forward for your next post, I

  5. #5 Neil Craig
    March 19, 2013

    “If itswarmer thatts global warming; if its drier thats global warming; if its wetter thats global warming; if its colder thats global warming.”

    is now being joined with
    If the globe is getting warmwer thats global warminmg and if the globe isn’t getting warmer thats global warming too.

    An interesting demonstration of the “environmentalists'” respect for the scientific method.

    Also further proof, if any were needed, that the ecofascists on “scienceblogs” and elsewhere have not the tiniest trace of honesty let alone respect for science

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