Still working on an the US navy is all out this week
when listening to heated rhetoric from DC, it is interesting to keep half an eye on what is actually happening on the ground.
US doctrine calls for an ability to strike any where on the globe within 24 hours, a time they'd like to shorten to one hour (for non-nuclear strikes), but realistically for any sustained effort against a national power, the US need to move assets into place weeks or days before anything can happen.
It is also effectively US doctrine to attack first at night, and near or just after the new moon, because that maximises the advantages of stealth bombers. This also makes it slightly predictable when the US could be likely to launch military attacks.
The reason to worry about such things is that US politicians are talking up a bluster, and have some recent history of actually carrying out threats, especiallyeven if the threats are moronic.
So... I was a wee bit surprised by the status of the Navy (dynamic page link) this morning.
First: 2/3 of the attack subs are at sea! With 21 deployed, 36 at sea.
This is in part because all the carriers afloat are at sea! (and each one has at least one sub in escort)
The US has eight aircraft carriers underway this morning (3 are in dock and 1 is not yet finished).
That is slightly unusual.
The Enterprise is doing exercises in the Persian Gulf with two amphibious warfare ships (heli carriers) - exercise is aimed at clearing the Straits of Hormuz.
The Kitty Hawk is off Japan on fall deployment - regular autumnal outing around Taiwan and Korea etc.
The Truman deployed this morning in the Atlantic, going to the mid east, where it will overlap with the Enterprise.
The Lincoln is getting ready to go in the Pacific in the near future (weeks? - they're still doing exercises).
One other Atlantic carrier (I think the Eisenhower??) will deploy soon (this month??).
According to news.
One minor curiousity, the Lincoln took on a new "search and seize" helicopter unit, one of half-dozen being formed.
The Nimitz just got back from the Gulf, but is toodling around off California I guess.
The Reagan is just out of an upgrade and doing sea readiness exercises (including how to turn on a dime).
Which leaves the Washington - which might be the other Atlantic carrier about to deploy, or may be in ready reserve. The Washington was also upgraded recently and should go to Japan next year to replace the Kitty Hawk which is to be retired.
Be interesting to see if-and-when the Truman and/or the other Atlantic carrier go through the Med. But the US could have five carriers on station in the next few weeks, if they hustle. Or they could finish their warmups and mostly go back to port, leaving 2-3 in usual deployment.
But, we're not done yet, eight out of the ten amphibious warfare ships are at sea - two out of the three Tarawa class and six out of seven Wasp class.
That is a lot of ships to be out all at the same time. If they're all loaded, that is a full Marine division at sea. The Wasp and Kearsarge are in the Persian Gulf on exercises, with a brigade of Marines, doing reinforcement exercises for the Emirates and other fun stuff. Nassau and Iwo Jima are in the Atlantic and the Essex is in the Phillippines, but Peleliue, Boxer and Bonhomme Richard are in the Pacific.
Hopefully 2-3 of those are heading home to the US. Haven't poked to see which, be evident enough in a few days which direction they are going.
On a more cheerful note, the "Golden Dragons" should have returned to New York last night, though I haven't heard from lt. Joe.
Notices that the 1st Brigade is shipping out, and one company is going to Kirkuk - this might be one of those awkward situations when they arrive, where they might have to call home to ask which direction to attack in.
Might be un-fun.
Oh, and the local National Guard brigade is shipping out next year, one of eight(!) called up. Saw their new toys (Strykers) delivered a few weeks ago, hope they work as advertised, some guys I know are going to be riding in those.
Haven't heard the USAF is doing anything scary, though I saw some logistics units are shipping out around now. Hard to tell what is up with those (duh!), they are small and decentralised, difficult to tell when it is just rotation of company sized units, and when it is an increase in capability. Funny that.
Y'know - I really don't think W. should attack Iran until the USS George Bush is read to go... gotta have some poetry when being foolish.
PS: it is conventional wisdom that diffuse knowledge of imminent sillyness provides additional indicators of when the balloon might go up - like stock markets going into a slide, or oil prices, and more importantly, oil futures, suddenly spiking more sharply than expected from apparent market conditions... so, no worries, eh?
