The Cycle 19 demand curve

Every year we contemplate the Hubble Call for Proposals demand curve.

Four years ago we started to quantify the demand curve

the calm rational analysis soon broke into a nerd gambling frenzy

we then started theorizing about proposal scale invariance which annoyingly enough apparently works

by then Julianne was analyzing the observations of the proposal submission rate – this was back in the good old days when blogging was hot and we had time to actually do stuff

so, can’t let a good analysis down:

i-2cbecaf67c32e08b1a2ccb3b29ebbc47-prop19.jpg
this is the linear plot, the time is in theorist units, rounded
data collected anecdotally from facebook…

i-53ebdca0e8145c12b25fa75a7f1d6364-lprop.jpg
and the log-lin plot.

Damn, we’re predictable…
the break from approximate e(t-t0) seems a bit stronger this year, which is not surprising given the two extensions (first from 8 pm to 10 pm EST and then till 3 pm the next day).
I suspect though that the curve won’t asymptote much higher than the naive extrapolation, sounded like people were burned out by the time the extensions were announced.

More data is needed, in particular more low numbers and denser sampling during that critical last hour, though I fear this year’s extrapolation will be hopelessly corrupted by the capricious extensions…

Comments

  1. #1 AK
    February 26, 2011

    #955 at 02:45:33 GMT

    #988 at 03:12:48 GMT

  2. #2 Caryl
    February 26, 2011

    Here are some more culled from Facebook and my e-mail (you’ve seen some of these already):
    #113 ~Wednesday afternoon
    #576 @ 2:58 pm EST
    #584 @ 3:06 pm EST
    #734 @ 5:45 pm EST
    #943 @ 9:36 pm EST
    #959 @ 9:51 pm EST
    #967 @9:56 pm EST

  3. #3 Anonymous
    February 26, 2011

    967 @ 02:55:46 GMT

  4. #4 Anonymous
    March 2, 2011

    158 thursday 16 21 GMT
    297 friday 5 55 GMT
    386 friday 15 46 GMT
    429 friday 17 11 GMT
    470 friday 18 16 GMT
    599 friday 20 24 GMT
    616 friday 20 55 GMT
    849 friday 23 30 GMT

  5. #5 Anonymous
    March 2, 2011

    ID 73 at 2011-Feb-22 06:26:23 EST and ID 74 at 2011-Feb-22 06:35:32 EST