Politics

UPDATED The update includes adding actual delegate counts for races so far, recognizing that for Pennsylvania this means only 17 delegates out of 54, even though he won there, because Pennsylvania is strange. Also, some other revisions. This estimate still uses a combination of polling data and information in this discussion at FiveThirtyEight by Nate…

As you know, I’ve been applying a model to predict the outcome of each of the Democratic Primary contests, and have done pretty well at predicting results. All of the future contests are primaries, not caucuses. It turns out that the two modes have very different patterns. Many have suggested that this has to do…

EDITED AFTER NEW YORK PRIMARY NOTE: UPDATED AND IMPROVED VERSION OF THIS ANALYSIS IS HERE There is almost no way that Donald trump will get to the Republican National Convention with anything less than a fairly strong majority of pledged delegates. But can he get there with the 1237 delegates needed to lock the nomination…

Or at least a certain corner of Canadian politics. For some definitions of “blow up.” For those not followong Canadian politics, our more-or-less socialist party, The New Democratic Party, recently held a policy convention where they also held a leadership review vote. The current leader, Tom Mulcair, lost the vote and as a result the…

How does the “southernness” of a state affect the Democratic Primary? Clinton has been doing well in “The South.” Of course, defining what “The South” is is pretty tricky. I divided up the states by “Deep South” vs. Other, so all the usual orginal deep south states count as “southern” except Florida. You know what…

Democratic Primary and Size of State

When either candidate wins a state, that candidate’s supporters celebrate and underscore the significance of that win. The other candidate’s supporters generally proceed to explain how it was not a significant win, or in some cases, come up with conspiracy theories about how the election was stolen. So, here is an interesting question: Does one…

A while back Vox produced a tax modeler that would tell you how your taxes would change with Sanders plan. It raised most people’s taxes by a few thousand dollars. But the modeling was misleading because the same plan would probably reduce health care costs for those same individuals. I pointed that out back at…

Everybody loves Joe Biden, and the main thing you’ve got to love about him is that he has stuff in his head and then says it out loud, like a normal person. And here is one of those moments. And, as you can see, some of Joe has rubbed off on Barack.

… and why we never got the Equal Rights Amendment. Donald Trump is a very good Republican candidate. In terms of both style and substance, Trump does a good job of representing that part of the Republican Party that has been in charge of that party for several years, the Tea Party. The Republican Party…

April 2016 Open Thread