Perhaps more importantly, they also have a post that contains an analysis of the implications for the supply of fuel (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel).
Implications of a Ten Day Refinery Outage
Posted by Gail the Actuary on September 13, 2008 - 6:21pm
Where is our gasoline and diesel supply headed? Even before Ike hit, quite a few areas of the US were starting to see gasoline shortages. The impact of Ike can only make shortages worse. Most likely, it will take refineries at least a week or two to get production back to normal levels after a storm of this type, considering the impacts of electrical outages and flooding. In this article, I will examine some of the issues that seem to be involved. Based on my analysis, fuel supply shortages are likely to last well into October, and are likely to get considerably worse before they get better... [emphasis added]
One of her main points is that we are likely to get a preview of the eventual impacts of peak oil.
Even though she does not yet know how much down time there will be due to Ike, she provides enough background information to show how this is likely to play out. The big question -- which cannot be answered yet -- it how long this will go on.
My suggestion: whatever you do to adapt to the shortages, please keep doing that, even after the shortages are alleviated. There will be a spike in shortages after Ike. Then things will seem to return to normal. But it is not really a spike; it's a preview.
People who ought to understand this, often do not. I was reminded of this when I was trying to learn more about the damage to the energy infrastructure, and read this:
Ike Forces Shutdown of 19% of U.S. Refining Capacity
By Jordan Burke and Aaron Clark
...Gasoline shortages may occur across the southern U.S. up to Washington because of the closures caused by Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall Sept. 1 in Louisiana, and now Ike, Kevin Kolevar, assistant secretary for electricity delivery and energy reliability at the U.S. Department of Energy, said on a conference call yesterday."We expect to see constrained supplies of refined products,'' he said. "The administration will utilize every tool at our disposal to lessen the likelihood of limited fuel supplies,'' including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve."...
Opening the SPR might be called for, eventually, but it misses the point. The most acute problems will be caused by loss of refining capacity, not a shortage of crude oil. The government is helpless in the face of a sudden loss of refining capacity. In the face of inadequate refining capacity, it will not help to provide oil from the SPR. Really, the only thing to do, would be to try to import a greater quantity of refined oil products. That would be an enormously expensive proposition, and it may not be possible. The capacity to move vast quantities of such products is limited, and it cannot be ramped up quickly.
Theoretically, they could mandate the construction of more refineries. But, for one thing, that will never happen. Plus, it would not help anytime in the next few weeks or months.
I suspect that Kolevar mentioned the SPR because he wanted to say something reassuring. But it is not reassuring to hear statements that imply that an important government official fails to understand the problem.
Environment
