Not sure what to make of this, as the prediction appears to be based entirely upon the intuition of an experienced pediatric infectious disease specialist. It is reported on Medscape (open access, free registration required).
May 4, 2009 (Baltimore, Maryland) — Pediatric infectious diseases specialists and public health experts used the stage of the Pediatric Academic Societies’ annual meeting to update their colleagues on the latest statistics and projections on the H1N1 “swine flu” outbreak.
“I believe that we will see [H1N1 cases] die down over the next month or two, with a reemergence in the fall,” predicted James Cherry, MD, pediatric infectious diseases specialist at the University of California at Los Angeles School of Medicine.
“I’ve lived through 4 shifts of influenza A,” Dr. Cherry told a heavily attended special symposium here. The current strain appears to be more similar to the 1957 strain, when deaths were largely attributed to coinfection with Staphylococcus aureus, than it does to the better recognized 1976 swine influenza outbreak, he said.
As I read that, I thought, ‘in 1957, we did not have methicillin-resistant staph aureus, but now we do. This could be trouble.’ Sure enough, the next part reads:
“I think we are going to see this strain reemerge in the fall, with MRSA [coinfection]. I believe MRSA will play a major role in morbidity and mortality,” Dr. Cherry warned.
“This is real. This is going to happen. We need vaccines. We should move ahead with vaccine development as fast as possible. Antivirals are not going to manage it,” he said.
Dr. Cherry became board-certified in Pediatrics in 1962, with added qualification in Pediatric Infectious Diseases in 1994. He’s a Professor of Pediatrics at UCLA, and a co-author of Feigin and Cherry’s Textbook of Pediatric Infectious Diseases. He speaks with authority, although I should add that what he is saying is really an authoritative guess.