People can argue about what the latest job numbers mean. Some see signs of recovery; others do not. I say the data are too noisy, but my take on it is that it is more bad than good. Some say that employment tends to be alagging indicator, but that is onlypart of the story.
The most comprehsensive look at the employment numbers that I've so so far, is here: Employment Is NOT A Lagging Indicator. It's good for people who like graphs. There is a slideshow that slices and dices the employment data 14 ways. It indicates that the only employment number that is truly a laging indicator is the BLS civilian unemployment rate. But there are many numbers pertaining to employment. Most tell a different story.
The number of initial claims tends to be a leading indicator. That has fallen lately. But the author says this could be misleading: In prior recessions, the number peaked quickly, then dropped quickly. This time, the peak was slow to develop, and it is not dropping very much, or very quickly. Because the behavior of this metric is so different than it has been, historically, it would be hazardous to think it means the same thing at this point in time.
Politics
