Bruce Reed observes in Slate today that hot states tend to vote Republican. Does this mean that global warming will inevitably increase the spread of red states? Do sweltering summers cause conservative politics?
21 of the 27 states with an average temperature over the last half century of more than 50 degrees Fahrenheit voted for Bush in 2004, providing 241 of his 286 electoral votes. In the 23 states with an average temperature below 50 degrees, by contrast, Democrats cleaned up in the electoral vote, 141 to 45.The political climate is the same in the House of Representatives. Democrats actually have a 10-seat majority in cold states--and Democratic hopes for reclaiming the House in 2006 rest in large part on seats in Pennsylvania, New York, and elsewhere in the Northeast.
Republicans owe their current House majority to a nearly 40-seat advantage in hot states, as symbolized by two notorious sons of the Sunbelt, Newt Gingrich and Tom DeLay. The margin would be even more lopsided if not for California, the Democrats' one significant inroad into milder climes.
Reed takes consolation in the fact that if global warming continues, the dry West and the deep South will become unbearable, and people will migrate back to the cool blue states of the Northeast. Personally, I don't want former Phoenix residents cluttering up my New England.
Comments (4)
Some Republicans don't mind distancing themselves from Bush and his low ratings on this issue:
Blair, Schwarzenegger sign climate pact
Posted by: wamba | August 1, 2006 4:44 PM