There are lies, damn lies and statistics. Last week, the newspapers were filled with stories about rising divorce rates. It was widely reported that couples that married in the 1970's had a less than even chance of celebrating their 25th wedding anniversary. But those statistics were misleading. Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers report:
The story of ever-increasing divorce is a powerful narrative. It is also wrong. In fact, the divorce rate has been falling continuously over the past quarter-century, and is now at its lowest level since 1970. While marriage rates are also declining, those marriages that do occur are increasingly more stable. For instance, marriages that began in the 1990s were more likely to celebrate a 10th anniversary than those that started in the 1980s, which, in turn, were also more likely to last than marriages that began back in the 1970s.Why were so many analysts led astray by the recent data? Understanding this puzzle requires digging deeper into some rather complex statistics.
The Census Bureau reported that slightly more than half of all marriages occurring between 1975 and 1979 had not made it to their 25th anniversary. This breakup rate is not only alarmingly high, but also represents a rise of about 8 percent when compared with those marriages occurring in the preceding five-year period.
But here's the rub: The census data come from a survey conducted in mid-2004, and at that time, it had not yet been 25 years since the wedding day of around 1 in 10 of those whose marriages they surveyed. And if your wedding was in late 1979, it was simply impossible to have celebrated a 25th anniversary when asked about your marriage in mid-2004.
If the census survey had been conducted six months later, it would have found that a majority of those married in the second half of 1979 were happily moving into their 26th year of marriage. Once these marriages are added to the mix, it turns out that a majority of couples who tied the knot from 1975 to 1979 -- about 53 percent -- reached their silver anniversary.
Why is divorce getting less common? That's a good question. My guess is that part of the answer is that more couples are now living together before they get married. Co-habitation is good training, and gives you a much more accurate sense of how you and your partner will get along thereafter. (I know of several couples who lived together before getting married only to discover that they couldn't live together.) In other words, it's good to live in sin, at least for a little while.
See more on Wolfers and divorce here.
Comments (12)
I still want to know what the data say about divorce and marriage rates in countries/states that allow gay marriage. Seems to me some recent states legalizations may have provided us with pristine data sets by now, but I haven't seen them reviewed as of yet. Anybody? Anybody? Beuuuuuler?
Posted by: boojieboy | October 1, 2007 11:44 AM