Tim Lambert (deltoidblog AT gmail.com) is a computer scientist at the University of New South Wales.
Frank Crary said (referring to changes in homicide rate in NSW and Qld):
The sharp drop you claim to see, is (in my opinion) not significant compared to the background variations. While this may have been real effect of gun control laws, in is at least as likely that it is a coincidence.
Could the changes be caused by noise? This calls for a t test, to see if the average homicide rate changed.
The significant events were:
1920: NSW controls all guns
1927: Queensland controls handguns and NSW drops controls on long guns
So, I took three groups of years 1911-1920 (pre-control), 1921-1927 (NSW controls, no Qld controls), 1928-1937 (both controls)
The means:
NSW Qld
1911-1920 2.3 4.1
1921-1927 1.4 4.3
1928-1937 1.6 2.7
Probability chance could cause the change:
In NSW between 11-20 and 21-27: 0.0003
In NSW between 21-27 and 28-37: 0.09
In Qld between 11-20 and 21-27: 0.57
In Qld between 21-27 and 28-37: 0.002
Both states recorded significant declines in the homicide rate following gun control. If some other factor caused the declines, then it did not operate in both states simultaneously. (The change in NSW after 1927 is of borderline significance, but it was an increase.)
