Tim Lambert (deltoidblog AT gmail.com) is a computer scientist at the University of New South Wales.
robert i kesten said:
Could you give the date(s) and an 11 year (5 before, first year of implementation, 5 after) table of homicide rates. If possible I'm interested in Australia as a whole, not just NSW or any other state.
Here are the states for which I have data.
(Data for WA and Tas are incomplete in ways that make them useless for evaluating gun laws.)
Qld and SA figures come from "Source Book of Australian Criminal & Social Statistics 1900-1980" Mukherjee. Victoria from "Victorian Year Book" volumes for 1901,1902,1903,1904, etc. NSW from "Homicide:The Social Reality" Wallace. -1 means no data available. All are rates per 100,000 pop. NSW, Vic are for homicides, SA for homicides including manslaughter by driving, Qld are for charges for murder and manslaughter.
NSW Qld SA Vic
1920 1927 1929 1921 <- gun laws introduced
1900 1.5 7.0 -1.0 -1.0
1901 1.4 9.0 -1.0 2.6
1902 2.3 7.5 -1.0 2.2
1903 1.0 7.1 -1.0 1.2
1904 3.0 7.5 -1.0 1.9
1905 1.8 6.6 -1.0 3.3
1906 2.1 6.1 -1.0 1.6
1907 3.0 7.4 -1.0 1.7
1908 3.0 6.8 -1.0 1.5
1909 3.1 4.4 -1.0 1.2
1910 2.6 4.6 -1.0 3.1
1911 2.7 4.0 -1.0 1.8
1912 2.4 3.1 -1.0 2.1
1913 2.1 4.4 -1.0 1.8
1914 2.4 4.0 -1.0 1.6
1915 2.6 3.9 -1.0 1.7
1916 2.1 4.2 -1.0 1.4
1917 1.9 4.9 -1.0 1.3
1918 1.4 5.3 -1.0 1.3
1919 2.7 3.8 -1.0 1.8
1920 2.7 3.5 -1.0 1.2
1921 1.8 3.8 3.4 1.4
1922 1.6 2.9 3.0 1.5
1923 1.0 3.6 2.0 1.3
1924 0.9 5.1 5.1 1.1
1925 1.1 3.7 3.7 1.3
1926 1.6 5.1 4.0 2.0
1927 1.6 6.1 3.0 1.8
1928 1.9 3.8 2.8 1.8
1929 1.7 3.7 3.9 2.0
1930 1.7 2.6 1.2 1.1
1931 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.3
1932 1.3 3.3 1.6 0.9
1933 1.5 2.5 1.1 1.6
1934 1.4 2.5 1.8 1.4
1935 1.8 2.4 0.9 1.3
1936 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.0
1937 2.0 2.5 2.5 1.0
1938 1.2 3.3 1.5 1.3
1939 1.3 3.3 0.6 0.8
1940 1.7 3.6 0.8 0.6
You might also be interested in the following breakdown of the homicide rate for NSW, gleaned from the NSW statistical register.
NSW, rates per 100,000 population. Column 2 firearm homicides Column 3 cutting or piercing instrument homicides Column 4 Other means homicides Infanticide and justifiable homicides excluded (except that 1928-30 includes justifiable homicides) 1910 0.6 0.2 1.2 1911 0.4 0.1 1.3 1912 0.7 0.1 0.8 1913 0.8 0.1 0.8 1914 0.7 0.3 0.9 1915 0.9 0.3 0.8 1916 0.5 0.4 0.8 1917 0.4 0.1 0.6 1918 0.3 0.1 0.7 1919 1.0 0.3 1.0 1920 1.1 0.3 1.0 1921 0.6 0.1 0.8 1922 0.1 0.0 0.9 1923 0.1 0.1 0.6 1924 0.5 0.4 1.1 1925 0.2 0.2 0.5 1926 0.3 0.3 0.5 1927 0.5 0.2 0.8 1928 0.5 0.3 1.0 1929 0.6 0.4 0.7 1930 0.7 0.1 0.8
t tests comparing 1910-20 with 1921-1930 show significant decrease in firearms rate, overall rate (excluding infanticide and justifiable), and firearms percentage. Changes in sharp instrument, and other means rates were not significant.
