Tim Lambert (deltoidblog AT gmail.com) is a computer scientist at the University of New South Wales.
Bill Gray said:
[talking about Orlando gun training]
Anyway, during the period after the training when the rapes dropped so dramatically, none of the women ever fired their weapons. Moreover, none of them shot a husband or boyfriend, nor were any children harmed with these firearms.
I personally called the Orlando PD to confirm as much of this as I could, and it checks out with their records department. There was an increase in homicide the same year, but the base numbers were so low that even one or two additional would come out to the 22%--in short, it wasn't like they dropped 122 compared to the previous 100, but more like 17 instead of the previous 14. It was not considered statistically significant by the statistician I spoke to at the Orlando PD anyway.
On the basis of what is known, it is hard to see a down side of the Orlando experience. It is pretty clear--as clear as these things ever get--that the well-publicized ability of a small percentage of the potential victims to repel assault provided protection to nearly all of that class of potential victims. It is also clear that there was no societal cost--aside from the trivial expense to the police of providing the training (which may have been offset by fees charged--I do not know if the classes were gratis or not); certainly the increase in homicide was not related to the women being armed.
To summarize your argument:
the increase in homicides was not statistically significant -- the actual number of homicides was small enough that increases of 20% or more were not uncommon.
None of the women killed anyone.
Hence you conclude the increase in homicides was unrelated to the training. Fair enough. I agree with you.
However,
the decrease in reported rapes was not statistically significant -- the rape rate fluctuated wildly in the years before the training program. It even decreased 100% one year.
None of the women used her gun to defend against rape.
So why are you so sure that the gun training caused the reduction in the rape rate?
Certainly, it is possible that some criminals were so scared by the news of armed victims that they gave up rape for a year or more, so the reduction in rapes, though not statistically significant might have been caused by the training.
It is also possible that some unarmed criminals were so scared by the news of armed victims that they armed themselves and ended up shooting someone, so the increase in homicides, though not statistically significant might have been caused by the training.
