Tim Lambert (deltoidblog AT gmail.com) is a computer scientist at the University of New South Wales.
Joe B. Simpson said:
The New England Journal of Medicine. 1991 Dec 5. 325 (23). pp 1615-1620. Special Article: Effects Of Restrictive Licensing Of Handguns On Homicide And Suicide In The District Of Columbia. Loftin-Colin. McDowall-David. Wiersema-Brian. Cottey-Talbert-J.
Note that the study showed an immediate decline in homicide and suicide rates after enacting the ban.
Which is a LIE, because the suicide RATE in DC was the same after the ban as it was before the ban, though the rate in surrounding areas not affected by the ban fell 10%. The GUN suicide rate in DC fell more than the GUN suicide rate in the other areas, but the fact that the overall suicide rate in DC remained constant illustrates perfectly the substitution principal.
So that we can see who is lying, here are the changes in the rates (data from Appendix B of Loftin et al's article):
DC (age adjusted rate per 100k population)
before after
Suicide 11.4 10.5
Gun suicide 4.1 3.5
Non-gun suicide 7.3 7.0
Maryland-Virginia (rate per 100k pop)
before after
Suicide 10.6 10.0
Gun suicide 5.2 5.0
Non-gun suicide 5.4 5.0
This certainly does NOT support the substitution hypothesis, which predicts an increase in DC non-gun suicides to compensate for the decrease in gun suicides. The decrease in overall rates was also larger in DC than in the surrounding areas, falsifying your other claim.
