Tim Lambert (deltoidblog AT gmail.com) is a computer scientist at the University of New South Wales.
Edgar Suter writes:
Dr. Kellermann's subsequent research "finding" that a gun in the home increases risk used a method that cannot distinguish between "cause" and "effect." Kellermann's illogical conclusion would be like finding more insulin in the homes of diabetics and so concluding that insulin "causes" diabetes. Interestingly Kellermann's own data show that when a homeowner is killed only rarely is the "gun in the home" the instrument of the homeowner's death.
Untrue. See table 1 of the paper.
How then can the gun "cause" the death? Does the gun magnetize murderers to the homeowner's doorstep? Does the gun emit magic rays that cloud the mind of otherwise good people? Of course not.
Amusing speculation, but these bear no relation whatsoever to the actual content of the paper
If we put Kellermann's research in context with all the other scientific evidence, all we can conclude is that fear of crime causes people in high-risk areas to buy guns for protection -- hardly a momentous finding.
The study found that gun ownership was associated with a higher risk of gun homicide and was not associated with a higher risk of homicide by other means. This is inconsistent with your explanation unless you believe that people don't think that guns will protect them against assailants who don't have guns.
Even the National Crime Victimization Survey, one of the studies most cited by the anti-self-defense lobby, shows that guns are the safest and most effective means of protection - safer than not resisting or resisting with less powerful means. All this explains why the 28 states that allow law-abiding, mentally-competent adults to protect themselves outside the home with concealed handguns have lower rates of crime for every category of crime indexed by the FBI.
You have apparently found the method for distinguishing between cause and effect that eluded Dr Kellermann. Can you tell us how you were able to eliminate the possibility that injured crime victims may find it more difficult to resist? Or the possibility that high crime rates might cause states to enact controls on handgun carry?
