Tim Lambert (deltoidblog AT gmail.com) is a computer scientist at the University of New South Wales.
Dr. Paul H. Blackman writes:
Yes, I'm sure [Kleck] would dispute Annest, because he would assume injuries not treated in emergency rooms, and he'd probably stick with an estimate starting around 150,000 -- unless I've misunderstood non-peer-reviewed conversations.
So how does he reconcile this with his earlier estimate of 10,000-20,000 such woundings? That estimate was computed from his estimate of 1400-2800 self-defence killings and the estimate of 15% wound mortality. Does he know believe that there are 30,000 self-defence killings or that wound mortality for defensive shootings is only 1%? Surely neither figure is credible.
If you compare the death rate from gunshot wounds now with that of a century ago it is quite obvious that medical treatment (most notably the use of antibiotics) makes an enormous difference. If criminals never get their wounds treated then you would expect a much higher death rate from gun shot wounds than the 15% estimate that Kleck uses in "Point Blank". If we conservatively use that number for the death rate, it follows that at least 30,000 criminals are killed by civilians. Where do all the bodies go?
Criminals don't "never" get their wounds treated; they avoid treatment whenever possible.
The Annest figures are compatible with at most 10,000 wounded criminals getting hospital treatment. (Assuming that at most 20% of the intentional shooting wounds treated at hospital are of criminals shot in self-defence.) That is, if there are 200,000 such wounded criminals only 5% of them get hospital treatment. It seems unlikely in the extreme that 95% of such wounds are trivial ones that allow the criminal to escape and require no treatment or just basic first aid.
While medical treatment has clearly improved since a century ago, there have also been improvements in non-professional treatment for injuries; general preventive activities not necessarily involving a post-shooting trip to the doctor (tetanus shots, etc.); and today's bullets are much cleaner than yesteryear's. In addition, criminals may seek out medical treatment which doesn't get reported, something possibly akin to backroom abortions of pre-Roe/Wade days.
Even if there is a backroom gunshot wound treatment industry that is larger than the hospital one AND provides treatment every bit as good, then we would expect to see 30,000 dead criminals each year. I ask again: Where do all the bodies go?
