Deltoid

Jim Zoes was kind enough to send me the data on English homicide rates that he obtained from the Home Office. I've typed it in and included it at the end of this message.

The numbers are certainly higher than those recorded in the WHO Statistical Yearbook. I'll try to find out why, but for now I think we should consider the Home Office data to be more reliable.

Anyway, there is plenty of data to let us look at the question of whether English homicide rates were lower before the introduction of gun control than after. Fortunately, the answer turns out to be yes and no, so debates here about it can proceed endlessly.

Here the average homicide rates by decade:

1860 means decade starting 1860 i.e. 1860-1869
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
 1.7  1.6  1.5  1.1  0.9  0.8  0.7  0.8  0.8  0.7  0.7  1.0  1.2  1.4

The homicide rate in England declined after gun control was introduced in 1920, though this could have been the continuation of a long term trend. The rate increased again after 1970 and is now almost as high as is was in the 1880s.

Compare 1910-19 with 1920-1929 and the rate went down.
Compare 1910-19 with 1990-1993 and the rate went up.
Compare 1857-1919 with 1920-1993 and the rate went down.

Homicide rate per 100k, England/Wales, Home office data
(Technically this is the rate for "offences initially recorded as
homicide" ) 
1857 1.26
1858 1.58
1859 1.42
1860 1.44
1861 1.36
1862 1.62
1863 1.76
1864 1.67
1865 1.96
1866 1.82
1867 1.85
1868 1.71
1869 1.74
1870 1.43
1871 1.78
1872 1.7
1873 1.58
1874 1.69
1875 1.55
1876 1.63
1877 1.53
1878 1.65
1879 1.51
1880 1.52
1881 1.61
1882 1.57
1883 1.57
1884 1.57
1885 1.49
1886 1.56
1887 1.37
1888 1.43
1889 1.07
1890 1.17
1891 1.02
1892 1.08
1893 1.13
1894 1.02
1895 1.13
1896 1.08
1897 0.98
1898 1.04
1899 1.01
1900 0.97
1901 1.05
1902 1.0
1903 0.94
1904 0.94
1905 0.84
1906 0.77
1907 0.77
1908 0.92
1909 0.85
1910 0.81
1911 0.81
1912 0.86
1913 0.91
1914 0.73
1915 0.75
1916 0.69
1917 0.61
1918 0.54
1919 0.79
1920 0.83
1921 0.66
1922 0.64
1923 0.68
1924 0.71
1925 0.82
1926 0.76
1927 0.75
1928 0.72
1929 0.79
1930 0.75
1931 0.72
1932 0.72
1933 0.88
1934 0.86
1935 0.77
1936 0.88
1937 0.74
1938 0.74
1939 0.85
1940 0.7
1941 0.75
1942 0.96
1943 0.76
1944 0.84
1945 1.15
1946 0.81
1947 0.86
1948 0.78
1949 0.68
1950 0.79
1951 0.75
1952 0.91
1953 0.74
1954 0.7
1955 0.63
1956 0.7
1957 0.71
1958 0.58
1959 0.59
1960 0.62
1961 0.57
1962 0.64
1963 0.65
1964 0.63
1965 0.68
1966 0.76
1967 0.86
1968 0.86
1969 0.81
1970 0.81
1971 0.94
1972 0.98
1973 0.95
1974 1.22
1975 1.03
1976 1.15
1977 0.98
1978 1.09
1979 1.28
1980 1.26
1981 1.12
1982 1.25
1983 1.11
1984 1.24
1985 1.25
1986 1.33
1987 1.37
1988 1.29
1989 1.25
1990 1.32
1991 1.42
1992 1.37
1993 1.31