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Tim Lambert's weblog
Tim Lambert (deltoidblog AT gmail.com) is a computer scientist at the University of New South Wales.
January 31, 2003
Category: More Guns Less Crime
Natalie Solent is disappointed in Lott, but is still impressed by More Guns, Less Crime. Unfortunately, the 98% figure is not an aberration. It is typical of the remarkable carelessness with facts that Lott displays and his refusal to back...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:58 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 30, 2003
Category: MaryRosh
[Editor's note: A couple of the posts in this long exchange between Huntress and Rosh have been left out. Some of the posts have had some extraneous discussion removed.] More information about Mary Rosh/John Lott is here. Introduction Last January,...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 8:33 PM • 1 Comments • 0 TrackBacks
Category: MaryRosh
A couple of interesting things about the Mary Rosh postings. First, in her book review Mary Rosh refers to "Professor Lott". At that time he was a John M. Olin Fellow at Chicago and certainly not a professor. In another...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 6:54 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: MaryRosh
Meanwhile, over in talk.politics.guns some folks are in denial about Mary Rosh. "The confession must be a forgery!" they said, prompting this exchange: Clayton Cramer: I asked Dr. Lott about it the other night, and he confirmed it. He also...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 6:54 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 29, 2003
Category: survey
ArchPundit continues to ponder on Lott's amateurish surveys. One further point you might like to consider: If the surveyors in Lott's 2002 survey were aware that it was vital for Lott to reproduce his low firing rate result, then that...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:05 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 28, 2003
Category: links
Kevin Drum has persuaded Lott to consider doing an interview. I think that is an excellent idea. With no-one in blogspace defending him, Lott needs a way to get his point of view across. Atrios points his readers at Mary...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:48 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: survey
Mark Kleiman has a excellent summary of the recent developments. Mark ends with a plea to gun-rights folks ---they should consider cutting Lott loose. (I would add, either that, or defend him---right now, Lott's side is losing the argument by...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:05 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 27, 2003
Category: survey
Lott has made some more responses to some of the questions asked and comments made. First, he has responded to my remaining questions I asked a while ago. Let's see how he went: Why did Lott repeatedly make false claims...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:05 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 26, 2003
Category: links
Atrios takes a swipe at the publisher of Lott's new book and it looks like Mary Rosh has started a blog....
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:48 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: survey
James Lindgren makes some interesting points in the comment section to this Jane Galt post. First, he comments on this Lott claim about his tax returns: As to deducting these costs on my income taxes, my 1997 tax form, which...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:05 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 25, 2003
Category: More Guns Less Crime
If you are interested in the question of whether Lott's claim that passing concealed carry laws reduce crime, you might want to read this article, which reports that a new book, Evaluating Gun Policy will be published in February contesting...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:58 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: files
From: John Lott Sent: 1/26/03 1:44 PM Subject: Response to Lindgren's "Lott's Tax Arguments" Response to Lindgren's "Lott's Tax Arguments"...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 8:33 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: survey
Julian Sanchez is on the case again. This time he has a bit more detail from Mustard. The key point is that Mustard is "fairly confident" that Lott told him in 1997 that he had done a survey. This suggests...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:05 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 24, 2003
Category: survey
From: John Lott Sent: Saturday, January 25, 2003 2:49 PM Please post Claims by archpundit (apparently reflecting similar claims made in other places):...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 8:33 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: survey
Robert Stacey McCain has a disgraceful whitewash of the affair in the Washington Times. The most important thing about this affair has always been whether Lott's 98% brandishing claim is true. By any objective reading of the existing evidence it...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:05 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: survey
Atrios has a disturbing report on David Gross. He is an extremely active pro-gun activist and was involved in a dirty trick that stole the name of a pro-control organization. Ouch. Well, I may start getting many more emails from...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:05 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: MaryRosh
And, from the surely-it-can't-get-any-weirder department: After John Lott made people promise not to reveal the questions in his new survey, Mary Rosh posted the questions from the new survey to Usenet. I'm imagining it went something like this: Lott: Nasty...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 6:54 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: MaryRosh
Tom Spencer comments on Glenn Reynolds curious reluctance to mention Mary Rosh, apparently because it is not "actual news". Well, actual people have changed their minds about Lott because of his Mary Rosh deception and the associated lying. One of...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 6:54 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: MaryRosh
Bloggers just can't get enough of Mary Rosh. We have Andrew Conway, Tim Dunlop and Jane Finch. G. Beato even has a picture of Mary....
Posted by Tim Lambert at 6:54 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 23, 2003
Category: survey
Ok, so what about this witness being a pro-gun activist? Well, he made it perfectly clear to me that he was strongly pro-gun and greatly admired John Lott in the long message that was sent to firearmsregprof. I should have...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:00 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: survey
Julian Sanchez drops another bombshell: the person who came forward saying that he believed that he had been surveyed is a pro-gun activist. Julian's revelations prompted John Quiggin to change his mind---he thinks Lott's employer should fire him....
Posted by Tim Lambert at 8:00 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: MaryRosh
Kevin Drum suggests that the large scale of the Lott/Rosh deception suggests that Lott maybe could have carried off a conspiracy with this witness. Sorry, but I still don't buy it. Lott's a liar, but he's a clumsy one. He...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 6:54 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 22, 2003
Category: survey
Well, after yesterday's revelations, blogspace seems to be split. On the one hand, we have Clayton Cramer, Steve Verdon, Jane Galt, Glenn Reynolds and Marie Gryphon who think Lott has been exonerated. On the other hand Kevin Drum and Tom...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:00 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: MaryRosh
Oh, and in amusing side note, Julian Sanchez uncovered evidence that determined Lott defender Mary Rosh is actually John Lott, and Lott actually confessed. Atrios, Roger Ailes, Kevin Drum and Tom Spencer also seem amused. I've had some discussions with...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 6:54 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 21, 2003
Category: MaryRosh
If you don't know who Mary Rosh is, you might want to read "The Mystery of Mary Rosh". Also of interest might be the blog post that unmasked Mary, and the latest Mary Rosh news. [Editor's note: Most of these...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 8:33 PM • • 1 TrackBacks
Category: files
Tim Lambert's questions: Why did Lott repeatedly make false claims that the 98% figure came from other studies and from Kleck? Even Lott cannot possibly be sure that the correct result of his survey was 98% since there is no...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 8:33 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: survey
Julian Sanchez posts some comments from someone who believes he was surveyed by Lott. Lott is in error when he states that there were no other gun use surveys at that time, but once these have been eliminated, we can...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:00 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 19, 2003
Category: files
From: John Lott Sent: Monday, January 20, 2003 1:58 PM To: Eugene Volokh [Critical Commentary by Tim Lambert. This is a copy of a January 20 email by Lott to the firearmsregprof list. My comments appear in italics like this.]...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 8:33 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: files
[This is an email sent to John Lott that Lott posted to the firearmsregprof mailing list on January 20, 2003.] I believe that in my emails to you and in my conversation with James Lindgren, I have stimulated just about...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 8:33 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: survey
If you haven't looked at the new section 4 in Lindgren's report, you should. In his latest response Lott asks: "There is also a question as to why people have waited so long to ask for this additional information when...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:00 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 18, 2003
Category: More Guns Less Crime
Steve Verdon has responded to my critique of More Guns, Less Crime....
Posted by Tim Lambert at 10:30 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: survey
Lindgren has released a new version of his report. It's long, but it's an absolute must read. If you've read the earlier version, you can skip to section 4 to read Lindgren's description of how Lott is trying to change...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:00 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 17, 2003
Category: survey
Julian Sanchez finds evidence that Lott lost data because of a computer crash. I'm afraid that he hasn't discovered anything new---his time would have been better spent reading Lindgren's report: "I talked with one of Lott's co-authors on another paper,...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:00 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 16, 2003
Category: survey
Jim Henley gets another email from Lott. It's not fair! Roger Ailes asks "how reliable is a self-reporting survey of 'defensive gun use' in the first place?". You're opening a real can of worms here, Roger. Survey estimates of the...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:00 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: survey
Otis Dudley Duncan has sent me these comments, which draw attention to a key point that almost all bloggers have missed: "There are two distinct issues in this case. Lott repeatedly made erroneous statements about the findings of other researchers....
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:00 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 15, 2003
Category: links
Steve Verdon comments on the Ayres and Donahue study I cited yesterday. Unfortunately he doesn't seem to have understood what their conclusions were. Try reading the abstract, Steve: "Estimating more statistically preferred disaggregated models on more complete county data, we...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:48 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: survey
I want to comment further on the email Lott sent to some bloggers. Lott states that he has been responsive and implies that he was somehow ambushed on this issue. Duncan first asked Lott for evidence for his survey last...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:00 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 14, 2003
Category: More Guns Less Crime
Mark Kleiman has an insightful post that is definitely worth reading. Mark observes that even though Lott's work on concealed carry laws does not rely on his alleged survey, destroying his credibility means that people cannot trust the results of...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:58 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: links
Jim Henley has an excellent blog roundup with thoughtful comments and even ratings. Julian Sanchez has an update where he includes a comment from an economic researcher that repeats what I wrote below: if his new survey only has 13...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:48 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: survey
In Lott's latest response, he changes his story again. He originally told Lindgren that hadn't discussed the survey with anyone at the time. Now he has recalled the name of an economist he discussed it with at the time. Unfortunately,...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:00 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 13, 2003
Category: links
John Lott has emailed Jim Henley with another response to Lindgren's report. I'll comment on this below. Julian Sanchez also got the Lott email. I didn't. Comments from Jesse Walker at reason.com, skippy, Guy Cabot, Kevin Drum and Steve Verdon....
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:48 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
Category: survey
Lindgren has updated his report. Main changes are the inclusion of a reply from John Lott and a dissection of Lott's new "Did I say three months? I meant one month. Yeah, that's the ticket!" claim. Lots more people have...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:00 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 12, 2003
Category: survey
After discussion has simmered along via email, Usenet and mailing list, Marie Gryphon has posted a nice summary on her blog. Several blogs have picked up on this: Julian Sanchez, Jim Henley, Jane Galt, Kevin Drum and Thomas M. Spencer....
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:00 AM • • 0 TrackBacks
January 8, 2003
Category: files
Lott's Table 3a from "Confirming More Guns, Less Crime"...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 8:33 PM • • 0 TrackBacks
