More on the British Crime Survey

Jim Henley is still concerned about the possibility that the BCS figures might be cooked. I still consider this possibility extremely unlikely because it would require some sort of conspiracy between the statisticians (who don’t have an interest in crime figures showing some particular result) and the top level people (who do have such an interest). With this many people involved, it would be quite likely that someone who blow the whistle and a major scandal would result. Also, if they were cooking the figures, they would have cooked the police statistics as well. (Recall that these show an increase.)

He also concerned about the explanation the report gives for the increase in police recorded crime. My understanding of their explanation is that the abrupt jump was caused when new offence categories were added to the definition of violent crime, and the increase since then was because of the gradual adoption of new counting rules. Chapter 3 of the report has more details for this, as well as a table showing results once the change in recording has been allowed for.