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Tim Lambert's weblog
Tim Lambert (deltoidblog AT gmail.com) is a computer scientist at the University of New South Wales.
October 31, 2006
Category: Global Warming
Tim Blair writes: Consider the tragic environmental cost: I had a strange experience on Monday. I went to see Al Gore's slide show, as he affectionately refers to An Inconvenient Truth, his exposé on global warming. For the first...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 12:18 PM • 13 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
The BBC did not publish all of Les Roberts' answers. Here are the rest: It seems the Lancet has been overrun by left-wing sixth formers. The report has a flawed methodology and deceit is shown in the counting process. What...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 10:45 AM • 68 Comments •
October 30, 2006
Category: Global Warming
In 2004, Naomi Oreskes looked at a sample of 928 papers in refereed scientific journals and found that not one disagreed with the scientific consensus: that humans are responsible for most of the warming in the last few decades. Benny...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 12:57 PM • 29 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
The BBC has Les Robert's answers to questions sent in by readers. Some extracts: A research team have asserted in an article in Science that the second Lancet study is seriously flawed due to "main street bias." We worked hard...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 12:16 PM • 2 Comments •
October 27, 2006
Category: LancetIraq
This is a talk about the methodology of the 2004 study, but most of it applies to the new study as well. It's 46 minutes long....
Posted by Tim Lambert at 12:59 PM • 1 Comments •
October 26, 2006
Category: Skeptics Circle
Kevin Leitch decided to hold the 46th Skeptic's Circle in heaven!...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 3:46 PM • •
October 25, 2006
Category: LancetIraq
Tim Blair isn't going to let go of his claim that Richard Garfield criticised the Lancet study. He offered this quote: "I'm shocked by the levels they (the investigators) reached," said Garfield. "Common sense, gut level, says it is...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 3:00 PM • 30 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
In my comments Iraq Body Count's Josh Dougherty throws a tantrum: Tim, you're a bald-faced liar ... do you really need to be such a monumental fraud and liar to puff up this Lancet study? Glenn Reynolds has studiously ignored...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:40 PM • 11 Comments •
Category: Gregg Easterbrook is an idiot
Obviously anything Gregg Easterbrook writes about the Lancet study is going to be really stupid, and sure enough, he gives us this: The latest silly estimate comes from a new study in the British medical journal Lancet, which absurdly estimates...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:11 PM • 9 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
Tim Blair, whose reaction to the Lancet study was to reject the entire concept of random sampling offers us this: Among other Lancet critics: Paul Bolton, a professor of international health at Boston University; Stephen Apfelroth, professor of pathology...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 12:11 AM • 32 Comments •
October 24, 2006
Category: LancetIraq
In May I analysed the press coverage of the Iraq Body Count and found that the IBC numbers were usually misreported as the number of deaths and the IBC maximum was often reported as an upper bound on the number...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:47 PM • 46 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
Sarah Bosely writes in the Guardian: The critics argued that the Lancet paper does not indicate that the researchers moved far enough away from the main street. "The further away you get, the further you are from the convoys that...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 5:35 AM • 45 Comments •
October 22, 2006
Category: LancetIraq
The editors at Slate really don't like epidemiology. Not content with Christopher Hitchens' clueless attack on the Lancet study they've published another attack on the study. And this one is by Fred Kaplan, the man who made such a dreadful...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:15 PM • 21 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
Daniel Davies was on the radio talking about the Lancet study. Richard Miniter interviews Gilbert Burnham. Deena Beasley reports what experts in cluster sampling think of the study: "Over the last 25 years, this sort of methodology has been used...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 12:23 AM • 30 Comments •
October 21, 2006
Category: LancetIraq
I guess that the next time a new physics study comes out Science will ask epidemiologists what they think of it. You see, John Bohannon, the reporter for Science, decided that opinions from a couple of physicists and an economist...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 3:28 PM • 89 Comments •
October 19, 2006
Category: LancetIraq
The Washington Post has hosted a on-line discussion with Gilbert Burnham. Some snippets: "One last point that is hard for many people to understand. The number of people or households interviewed and the number of clusters used does NOT depend...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:49 PM • 62 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
I asked Les Roberts to comment on Moore's piece. He wrote: I read with interest the October 18th editorial by Steven Moore reviewing our study reporting that an estimated 650,000 deaths were associated with the 2003 invasion and occupation of...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 11:49 AM • 48 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
river The responses were typical- war supporters said the number was nonsense because, of course, who would want to admit that an action they so heartily supported led to the deaths of 600,000 people (even if they were just crazy...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 11:25 AM • 19 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
Jim Giles talked to epidemiology experts about the Lancet study. (Nature subscription required): Data from other conflicts show that such sampling is much more accurate than media reports, which usually account for no more than 20% of deaths. "Random counts...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 10:13 AM • 14 Comments •
October 18, 2006
Category: LancetIraq
It never ceases to amaze me the way the Wall Street Journal combines superb news coverage with a completely clueless editorial page. To balance an excellent news article by Carl Bialik on the first Lancet study, we have an innumerate...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 11:50 AM • 73 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
Rebecca Goldin: While the Lancet numbers are shocking, the study's methodology is not. The scientific community is in agreement over the statistical methods used to collect the data and the validity of the conclusions drawn by the researchers conducting the...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:23 AM • 14 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
If you read the comment threads on the Lancet study you will know that David Kane frequently pops up with dark hints the authors committed some sort of fraud. Well now he has argued that the Lancet study is likely...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 6:18 AM • 16 Comments •
October 17, 2006
Category: LancetIraq
Anthony Wells: So, what could have gone wrong? The more excitable fringes of the US blogosphere have come out with some interesting stuff. Let's look at criticisms that don't hold water first. Firstly, the turnout is unbelievably high. The report...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 10:49 PM • 4 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
Bill S.2125 was unanimously passed by the Senate and promotes relief, security and democracy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It states: (5) A mortality study completed in December 2004 by the International Rescue Committee found that 31,000 people...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 1:35 PM • 18 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
You would have hoped the editors of Slate would have taken into account the way Fred Kaplan's innumerate criticism of Lancet 1 was shredded, but they've gone and published an attack on the study by Christopher Hitchens, who knows less...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 11:28 AM • 16 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
Lenin on the IBC attack on the Lancet study I had anticipated that the team behind Iraq Body Count would react to the latest survey on Iraqi mortalities published in the Lancet by trying to minimise their import and undermine...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 7:03 AM • 45 Comments •
Category: Global Warming
Radar has a list of America's Dumbest Congressmen. Number 3 is Inhofe: Inhofe is best known for his categorical claim that global warming is "the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people" -- a rhetorical flourish he recently refined...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 1:41 AM • 17 Comments •
The Tripoli six are five doctors and a nurse who were tortured until they confessed to deliberately infecting their patients with HIV. Revere has the latest on the campaign to free them. Mike Dunford list things you can do to...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 1:02 AM • 1 Comments •
October 16, 2006
Category: LancetIraq
Mark Kleiman: Yes, the survey projected 600,000 excess deaths based on 547 actually reported deaths. That's what "sampling" means, doofus. Every four years, pollsters in the U.S. project the results of voting by 100,000,000 people based on samples of 1000...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 1:10 PM • 31 Comments •
October 15, 2006
Category: LancetIraq
Mark Goldblatt mounts an attack on the Lancet study: The JHBSPH study attempts to calculate the number of civilian deaths "above what would have occurred without conflict." I wonder, therefore, if the survey group was taking into account the effects...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 7:45 AM • 41 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
There is an interview with Randi Rhodes on the study. The BBC's Paul Reynolds now has a response from Roberts to some of the criticisms:...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:40 AM • 9 Comments •
October 14, 2006
Category: LancetIraq
Lindsay Beyerstein spanks Tim Blair: Having dismissed statistical reasoning, Tim Blair goes on to reject peer review. It's amazing the lengths some folks will go to avoid believing that the invasion of Iraq killed hundreds of thousands of people....
Posted by Tim Lambert at 12:43 PM • 12 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
Richard Horton and Gilbert Burnham are interviewed in the Lancet's podcast on the Lancet study....
Posted by Tim Lambert at 12:23 PM • •
Category: timball
DeSmogBlog has Dan Johnson's statement of Defence against Tim Ball's lawsuit. Johnson has uncovered more examples of Ball embellishing his academic record. For example, Ball claimed he was an Emeritus Professor when he wasn't. Part of his defence is that...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 8:37 AM • 10 Comments •
October 13, 2006
Category: Global Warming
Jim Hoggan has the details on a brand new Canadian astroturf group, the Natural Resources Stewardship Project. The chairman is none another than Tim Ball, who is still puffing up his resume. The executive director is Tom Harris, whose other...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:04 PM • 7 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
Zeyad: One problem is that the people dismissing - or in some cases, rabidly attacking - the results of this study, including governmental officials who, arguably, have an interest in doing so, have offered no other alternative or not even...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 11:55 AM • 49 Comments •
October 12, 2006
Category: LancetIraq
Daniel Davies: This is the question to always keep at the front of your mind when arguments are being slung around (and it is the general question one should always be thinking of when people talk statistics). How Would One...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 11:57 PM • 78 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
Democracy Now has an interview with Les Roberts. On the methodology: I just want to say that what we did, this cluster survey approach, is the standard way of measuring mortality in very poor countries where the government isn't very...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 11:06 PM • 16 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
Latest Tim Blair attempt to refute the Lancet study: Lancet's number of documented deaths in Iraq, upon which the respected medical journal based its Iraqi mortality study, is but a mere 0.0835% of Lancet's estimated post-invasion death total. The...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 3:39 PM • 32 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
It seems that war supporters with actual knowledge of statistics aren't willing to criticise the new Lancet study, leaving the field to folks who don't know what they are talking about. John Howard: Well, I don't believe that John Hopkins...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:11 PM • 37 Comments •
Category: Skeptics Circle
Karl Mogel put together a podcast of the 45th Skeptic's Circle. You can hear the voices of all your favourite skeptical bloggers introducing their posts....
Posted by Tim Lambert at 11:23 AM • •
October 11, 2006
Category: LancetIraq
If you followed the debate over the first Lancet study you know that it featured numerous attacks on the study from folks who manifestly did not have a clue about statistics. The new study gives us much more of the...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:57 PM • 122 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
The Washington Post buried the story of 650,000 excess deaths in Iraq on page A12. I don't know what inside page the story appeared on in the New York Times, but look what they had on their website (image to...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 12:44 PM • 40 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
The Lancet study on deaths in Iraq has been released. Get it here. Here's the summary: Background An excess mortality of nearly 100 000 deaths was reported in Iraq for the period March, 2003-September, 2004, attributed to the invasion of...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:02 AM • 1 Comments •
Category: LancetIraq
The Washington Post reports on a new Lancet study on excess deaths in Iraq. (Though it buries it on page A12.) A team of American and Iraqi epidemiologists estimates that 655,000 more people have died in Iraq since coalition forces...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 12:34 AM • 63 Comments •
October 6, 2006
Category: astroturf
Via Sarah Pullman, a handy guide to the history and practice of Canadian Astroturf....
Posted by Tim Lambert at 9:39 PM • 7 Comments •
Category: DDT
Tina Rosenberg has an extremely misleading article in the New York Times touting DDT as a magic bullet against malaria. The give away in such articles is the way the author never mentions resistance to DDT. Here's the only mention...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:12 PM • 18 Comments •
October 5, 2006
Category: Global Warming
One of the things that gave Andrew Bolt 0 out of 10 on global warming was his misleading account of Severinghaus' research. Crikey reports: Severinghaus told Crikey that he doesn't make a habit of Googling his own research, but Bolt...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 2:57 PM • 15 Comments •
Category: astroturf
Last year I wrote: The Australian Environmental Foundation is a brand new environmental organization. Unfortunately they have chosen a very similar name to the long established Australian Conservation Foundation, so similar that the ACF has sued for trademark infringement. Probably...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 11:19 AM • •
October 4, 2006
Category: Global Warming
Warwick Hughes has a post claiming that there were high CO2 levels in the atmosphere in the 1940s "contrary to IPCC science" pointing to a something by E-G Beck. Here's Beck's graph: Now, a normal person looking at that would...
Posted by Tim Lambert at 11:03 AM • 48 Comments •
Greg Laden's Blog 11.24.2009
The World's Fair 11.24.2009
Effect Measure 11.24.2009
Starts With a Bang 11.23.2009
ERV 11.23.2009
