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Tim Lambert Tim Lambert (deltoidblog AT gmail.com) is a computer scientist at the University of New South Wales.

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October 31, 2006

An Inconvenient Success

Category: Global Warming

Tim Blair writes: Consider the tragic environmental cost: I had a strange experience on Monday. I went to see Al Gore's slide show, as he affectionately refers to An Inconvenient Truth, his exposé on global warming. For the first...

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More answers from Les Roberts

Category: LancetIraq

The BBC did not publish all of Les Roberts' answers. Here are the rest: It seems the Lancet has been overrun by left-wing sixth formers. The report has a flawed methodology and deceit is shown in the counting process. What...

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October 30, 2006

Peiser admits he was 97% wrong

Category: Global Warming

In 2004, Naomi Oreskes looked at a sample of 928 papers in refereed scientific journals and found that not one disagreed with the scientific consensus: that humans are responsible for most of the warming in the last few decades. Benny...

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Les Roberts answers questions about Lancet study

Category: LancetIraq

The BBC has Les Robert's answers to questions sent in by readers. Some extracts: A research team have asserted in an article in Science that the second Lancet study is seriously flawed due to "main street bias." We worked hard...

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October 27, 2006

Les Roberts on Lancet methodology

Category: LancetIraq

This is a talk about the methodology of the 2004 study, but most of it applies to the new study as well. It's 46 minutes long....

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October 26, 2006

46th Skeptic's Circle

Category: Skeptics Circle

Kevin Leitch decided to hold the 46th Skeptic's Circle in heaven!...

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October 25, 2006

Flypaper for illiterates

Category: LancetIraq

Tim Blair isn't going to let go of his claim that Richard Garfield criticised the Lancet study. He offered this quote: "I'm shocked by the levels they (the investigators) reached," said Garfield. "Common sense, gut level, says it is...

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Josh Dougherty gets an Instalanche

Category: LancetIraq

In my comments Iraq Body Count's Josh Dougherty throws a tantrum: Tim, you're a bald-faced liar ... do you really need to be such a monumental fraud and liar to puff up this Lancet study? Glenn Reynolds has studiously ignored...

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Easterbrook on Lancet study

Category: Gregg Easterbrook is an idiot

Obviously anything Gregg Easterbrook writes about the Lancet study is going to be really stupid, and sure enough, he gives us this: The latest silly estimate comes from a new study in the British medical journal Lancet, which absurdly estimates...

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Tim Blair claims Richard Garfield criticised Lancet study

Category: LancetIraq

Tim Blair, whose reaction to the Lancet study was to reject the entire concept of random sampling offers us this: Among other Lancet critics: Paul Bolton, a professor of international health at Boston University; Stephen Apfelroth, professor of pathology...

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October 24, 2006

IBC's campaign against Lancet study

Category: LancetIraq

In May I analysed the press coverage of the Iraq Body Count and found that the IBC numbers were usually misreported as the number of deaths and the IBC maximum was often reported as an upper bound on the number...

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Guardian story on alleged "main street" bias

Category: LancetIraq

Sarah Bosely writes in the Guardian: The critics argued that the Lancet paper does not indicate that the researchers moved far enough away from the main street. "The further away you get, the further you are from the convoys that...

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October 22, 2006

Slate's war on epidemiology continues

Category: LancetIraq

The editors at Slate really don't like epidemiology. Not content with Christopher Hitchens' clueless attack on the Lancet study they've published another attack on the study. And this one is by Fred Kaplan, the man who made such a dreadful...

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Lancet Links

Category: LancetIraq

Daniel Davies was on the radio talking about the Lancet study. Richard Miniter interviews Gilbert Burnham. Deena Beasley reports what experts in cluster sampling think of the study: "Over the last 25 years, this sort of methodology has been used...

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October 21, 2006

Science on Lancet study

Category: LancetIraq

I guess that the next time a new physics study comes out Science will ask epidemiologists what they think of it. You see, John Bohannon, the reporter for Science, decided that opinions from a couple of physicists and an economist...

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October 19, 2006

Burnham answers questions about Lancet study

Category: LancetIraq

The Washington Post has hosted a on-line discussion with Gilbert Burnham. Some snippets: "One last point that is hard for many people to understand. The number of people or households interviewed and the number of clusters used does NOT depend...

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Les Roberts responds to Steven E Moore

Category: LancetIraq

I asked Les Roberts to comment on Moore's piece. He wrote: I read with interest the October 18th editorial by Steven Moore reviewing our study reporting that an estimated 650,000 deaths were associated with the 2003 invasion and occupation of...

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Iraqi bloggers on Lancet study

Category: LancetIraq

river The responses were typical- war supporters said the number was nonsense because, of course, who would want to admit that an action they so heartily supported led to the deaths of 600,000 people (even if they were just crazy...

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Nature: Iraqi death toll withstands scrutiny

Category: LancetIraq

Jim Giles talked to epidemiology experts about the Lancet study. (Nature subscription required): Data from other conflicts show that such sampling is much more accurate than media reports, which usually account for no more than 20% of deaths. "Random counts...

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October 18, 2006

Flypaper for innumerates: WSJ edition

Category: LancetIraq

It never ceases to amaze me the way the Wall Street Journal combines superb news coverage with a completely clueless editorial page. To balance an excellent news article by Carl Bialik on the first Lancet study, we have an innumerate...

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Stats.org on the Lancet study

Category: LancetIraq

Rebecca Goldin: While the Lancet numbers are shocking, the study's methodology is not. The scientific community is in agreement over the statistical methods used to collect the data and the validity of the conclusions drawn by the researchers conducting the...

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David Kane claims Lancet study is likely fraudulent

Category: LancetIraq

If you read the comment threads on the Lancet study you will know that David Kane frequently pops up with dark hints the authors committed some sort of fraud. Well now he has argued that the Lancet study is likely...

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October 17, 2006

Lancet post number 100

Category: LancetIraq

Anthony Wells: So, what could have gone wrong? The more excitable fringes of the US blogosphere have come out with some interesting stuff. Let's look at criticisms that don't hold water first. Firstly, the turnout is unbelievably high. The report...

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US Senate cites Lancet study

Category: LancetIraq

Bill S.2125 was unanimously passed by the Senate and promotes relief, security and democracy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It states: (5) A mortality study completed in December 2004 by the International Rescue Committee found that 31,000 people...

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Slate's war on epidemiology

Category: LancetIraq

You would have hoped the editors of Slate would have taken into account the way Fred Kaplan's innumerate criticism of Lancet 1 was shredded, but they've gone and published an attack on the study by Christopher Hitchens, who knows less...

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On the IBC attack on the Lancet study

Category: LancetIraq

Lenin on the IBC attack on the Lancet study I had anticipated that the team behind Iraq Body Count would react to the latest survey on Iraqi mortalities published in the Lancet by trying to minimise their import and undermine...

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Inhofe: Not America's dumbest congressman, but close

Category: Global Warming

Radar has a list of America's Dumbest Congressmen. Number 3 is Inhofe: Inhofe is best known for his categorical claim that global warming is "the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people" -- a rhetorical flourish he recently refined...

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Tripoli Six Update

The Tripoli six are five doctors and a nurse who were tortured until they confessed to deliberately infecting their patients with HIV. Revere has the latest on the campaign to free them. Mike Dunford list things you can do to...

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October 16, 2006

Another Lancet Roundup

Category: LancetIraq

Mark Kleiman: Yes, the survey projected 600,000 excess deaths based on 547 actually reported deaths. That's what "sampling" means, doofus. Every four years, pollsters in the U.S. project the results of voting by 100,000,000 people based on samples of 1000...

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October 15, 2006

Goldblatt on Lancet study

Category: LancetIraq

Mark Goldblatt mounts an attack on the Lancet study: The JHBSPH study attempts to calculate the number of civilian deaths "above what would have occurred without conflict." I wonder, therefore, if the survey group was taking into account the effects...

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More from Les Roberts

Category: LancetIraq

There is an interview with Randi Rhodes on the study. The BBC's Paul Reynolds now has a response from Roberts to some of the criticisms:...

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October 14, 2006

When proofreaders attack

Category: LancetIraq

Lindsay Beyerstein spanks Tim Blair: Having dismissed statistical reasoning, Tim Blair goes on to reject peer review. It's amazing the lengths some folks will go to avoid believing that the invasion of Iraq killed hundreds of thousands of people....

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Lancet podcast

Category: LancetIraq

Richard Horton and Gilbert Burnham are interviewed in the Lancet's podcast on the Lancet study....

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Johnson's statement of defence against Ball

Category: timball

DeSmogBlog has Dan Johnson's statement of Defence against Tim Ball's lawsuit. Johnson has uncovered more examples of Ball embellishing his academic record. For example, Ball claimed he was an Emeritus Professor when he wasn't. Part of his defence is that...

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October 13, 2006

New Canadian Astroturf Group

Category: Global Warming

Jim Hoggan has the details on a brand new Canadian astroturf group, the Natural Resources Stewardship Project. The chairman is none another than Tim Ball, who is still puffing up his resume. The executive director is Tom Harris, whose other...

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More Lancet

Category: LancetIraq

Zeyad: One problem is that the people dismissing - or in some cases, rabidly attacking - the results of this study, including governmental officials who, arguably, have an interest in doing so, have offered no other alternative or not even...

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October 12, 2006

Lancet Roundup

Category: LancetIraq

Daniel Davies: This is the question to always keep at the front of your mind when arguments are being slung around (and it is the general question one should always be thinking of when people talk statistics). How Would One...

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Les Roberts interview on Lancet Study

Category: LancetIraq

Democracy Now has an interview with Les Roberts. On the methodology: I just want to say that what we did, this cluster survey approach, is the standard way of measuring mortality in very poor countries where the government isn't very...

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Stupid Beyond Belief

Category: LancetIraq

Latest Tim Blair attempt to refute the Lancet study: Lancet's number of documented deaths in Iraq, upon which the respected medical journal based its Iraqi mortality study, is but a mere 0.0835% of Lancet's estimated post-invasion death total. The...

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Flypaper for innumerates, part 2

Category: LancetIraq

It seems that war supporters with actual knowledge of statistics aren't willing to criticise the new Lancet study, leaving the field to folks who don't know what they are talking about. John Howard: Well, I don't believe that John Hopkins...

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45th Skeptic's Circle

Category: Skeptics Circle

Karl Mogel put together a podcast of the 45th Skeptic's Circle. You can hear the voices of all your favourite skeptical bloggers introducing their posts....

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October 11, 2006

Flypaper for innumerates

Category: LancetIraq

If you followed the debate over the first Lancet study you know that it featured numerous attacks on the study from folks who manifestly did not have a clue about statistics. The new study gives us much more of the...

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How many Iraqis have to die before it is front page news?

Category: LancetIraq

The Washington Post buried the story of 650,000 excess deaths in Iraq on page A12. I don't know what inside page the story appeared on in the New York Times, but look what they had on their website (image to...

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Lancet study released

Category: LancetIraq

The Lancet study on deaths in Iraq has been released. Get it here. Here's the summary: Background An excess mortality of nearly 100 000 deaths was reported in Iraq for the period March, 2003-September, 2004, attributed to the invasion of...

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600,000 Violent Deaths in Iraq

Category: LancetIraq

The Washington Post reports on a new Lancet study on excess deaths in Iraq. (Though it buries it on page A12.) A team of American and Iraqi epidemiologists estimates that 655,000 more people have died in Iraq since coalition forces...

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October 6, 2006

Hacky Night in Canada

Category: astroturf

Via Sarah Pullman, a handy guide to the history and practice of Canadian Astroturf....

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Tina Rosenberg misleads again

Category: DDT

Tina Rosenberg has an extremely misleading article in the New York Times touting DDT as a magic bullet against malaria. The give away in such articles is the way the author never mentions resistance to DDT. Here's the only mention...

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October 5, 2006

Bolt's abuse of science

Category: Global Warming

One of the things that gave Andrew Bolt 0 out of 10 on global warming was his misleading account of Severinghaus' research. Crikey reports: Severinghaus told Crikey that he doesn't make a habit of Googling his own research, but Bolt...

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Aussie astroturf in action

Category: astroturf

Last year I wrote: The Australian Environmental Foundation is a brand new environmental organization. Unfortunately they have chosen a very similar name to the long established Australian Conservation Foundation, so similar that the ACF has sued for trademark infringement. Probably...

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October 4, 2006

More Nonsense about CO2

Category: Global Warming

Warwick Hughes has a post claiming that there were high CO2 levels in the atmosphere in the 1940s "contrary to IPCC science" pointing to a something by E-G Beck. Here's Beck's graph: Now, a normal person looking at that would...

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