There really is no excuse for this, from Michael Duffy:

Global warming stopped six years ago. It might start again tomorrow, but from 2002 until now, average global temperatures have remained fairly constant. This is in contrast to the previous period when, as everyone knows, the temperature trend was upwards.

Look at the graph below, showing 8-year trends for each 8-year period in the data. (Graph is from RealClimate.) Notice that the eight year trend is sometimes negative. That’s because an eight year trend can be greatly affected by an unusually warm or cold year or two. But Duffy doesn’t say that warming stopped in the 80s and again in the 90s. Instad he says “the temperature trend was upwards”. Which is only true if you look at trends longer than ten years.

i-40fd335381b1ef2b239dfe5e3758ba0d-weather_vs_climate.png

Oh and notice that the current 8-year trend is for strong warming — you have to go to just six years if you want to find a trend that doesn’t show warming.

Duffy is aware of Fawcett and Jones explanation that warming hasn’t stopped:

A good source for this position is the paper Waiting For Global Cooling, published last month by Robert Fawcett and David Jones of the National Climate Centre at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

And some blog that’s been going on on this simple point for years now:

The mainstream view is represented by the University of NSW’s Tim Lambert at scienceblogs.com/deltoid

But he doesn’t seem to understand. Look:

It’s worth reflecting on the number of scientists who are certain about what the temperature trend will be in a 100 years, yet in 2001 were unable to predict what would happen in the next six.

I can’t tell you with any accuracy the percentage of heads you will get if you toss a single coin, but I can tell you that you will get close to 50% heads if you toss a thousand coins. I guess Duffy would argue that if I can’t tell you the result of one toss I can’t possibly predict the result of a thousand tosses.

Here’s Michael Ashley’s letter to the Sydney Morning Herald (He’s a Professor of Astrophysics at UNSW):

Michael Duffy (“New climate figures would make a great debate”,
SMH, 3 May 2008) is convinced that there is a global conspiracy to
hush up results from the UK’s Hadley Center that show that the earth
cooled in the six years from 2002.

If he had investigated further he would have found that the
Hadley data also show that global warming stopped in six-year or
longer periods beginning in 1941, 1951, 1959, 1969, 1979, and 1987.

After each of these periods the earth warmed up to more than
compensate for the drop.

The conclusion? Not a global conspiracy of the world’s scientists and
media to protect the orthodoxy against Duffy’s pioneering scepticism,
but simply that six years isn’t long enough to measure the long term
trend.

And here’s Andrew Dessler also explaining it:

There has been a lot of nonsense written about the lack of much if any warming over the last few years. It’s not a new argument — in fact, I blogged about it here — but like an axe-wielding psycho from a cheap horror flick, it just keeps coming back. …

A close look at the plot shows that this situation is not abnormal. In fact, global warming has stopped repeatedly over the last 150 years — meaning that there are many instances when the temperature reached a maximum that took many years to surpass.

The reason is clear. A warming rate of 3 degrees C per century corresponds to an annual average rate of warming of 0.03 degrees C per year. At the same time, interannual variability, such as El Niño events, are of the order of 1 degree C per year. Thus, over short time scales, the slow upward trend can be completely swamped by the large year-to-year variability.

Over the course of several decades, however, the slow warming trend dominates, and you end up with significant warming. Thus, to determine if global warming is occurring, you have to look at time periods of decades, not years.

Comments

  1. #1 Betula
    May 4, 2008

    No, it didn’t stop……perhaps it’s been put on hold for the next 10 years until the policies are in place.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=aU.evtnk6DPo&refer=home

  2. #2 david s
    May 4, 2008

    Similarly science claims that it gets warmer in the US between January and July, but upon closer examination you can see the temperature actually goes down most evenings between 10pm and sunrise.

  3. #3 Mick
    May 4, 2008

    Check out the famous painting of Washington crossing the Delaware. Note the Delaware is frozen. This was the Little Ice Age and we are experiencing a warming trend out of it.

    I can’t believe warmists believe that warming after an ice age(!!) is unprecedented and alarming.

  4. #4 Betula
    May 4, 2008

    david s and Mick…..

    I suggest you don your MOPP gear for the strike that is coming…..LEVEL 4 would be most appropriate.

  5. #5 guthrie
    May 4, 2008

    betula, I’m pretty sure David S is being sarcastic.
    As for Mick, he clearly knows nothing about the science.

    Hey MIck, would you like to produce your evidence that the warming is due to coming out of the little ice age?

  6. #6 cohenite
    May 4, 2008

    Actually Betula and guthrie, the chestnut of great temp divergence daily has some validity; tamino has just posted a fairly muted, for him, analysis of the climatic significance of daily variations in temp; this slots into the current dispute about base period analysis to substantiate trends and therein AGW.

    As to the Maunder Minimum; since temps were colder than today, warming must be because the globe is “coming out” of the little ice age; NASA have a good paper on it;
    http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/shindell_06/

  7. #7 Boris
    May 4, 2008

    I see, it can’t be the well documented radiative effect of CO2, it’s because we are coming out of an ice age that really wasn’t an ice age. Magic beans again.

  8. #8 guthrie
    May 4, 2008

    Cohenite, a quick scan (I’m off to bed in a minute) of the link you give shows no sign of any relation to claims that we are still coming out of an ice age. Perhaps you have something else in mind, given that all the models and stuff show that we can’t have had the past 30 years of warming without CO2 etc?

  9. #9 Nigel
    May 4, 2008

    Here’s a post with some sample data of short and long term trends with the 1C annual variation on top of 0.03C long term trend.
    http://skepticssa.wordpress.com/2008/05/05/a-note-about-long-term-trends/

    Anyone claiming 6 years of (wrong) data have overturned a long term trend need a big cup of shut the f%$# up and need to come up with better arguments as to why there is no long term trend.

  10. #10 cohenite
    May 4, 2008

    guthrie; I’m not sure what you want; CET data shows that it was cooler during the tail end of the MM (since CET begins in 1659) than today; Keigan has a paper on sea surface temp during the MM and the medieval warm period which shows it was cooler during during the MM and warmer during the warm period than today;
    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/274/5292/1503

    Oddly enough when I look at my local BoM temp history for Newcastle, which goes back to 1862 and is one of the longest continuous records in Australia, I see that the slightly warmest years were in the late 19thC and the slightly coolest in the late 20th.

  11. #11 John Mashey
    May 4, 2008

    While I wouldn’t want to be guilty of claiming that similarity of chart appearance proves anything, I do recommend looking at [Holzhauser et al](http://www.unige.ch/forel/PapersQG06/Holzhauser2005.pdf)
    Figure 2, on Great Aletsch glacier, whose chart of glacier length is more-or-less upside-down version of CET, although the glacier length does the smoothing naturally, has some lag time (~24 years), and of course depends on precipitation, not just temperature.
    Finally, one would expect some differences in sulfate aerosols between Central England and the Alps.

    As for why there might be jiggles, I think Ruddiman’s hypothesis about pandemics is much further developed than it was in “Plows, Plagues and Petroleum”. See the 37-page ["The Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis: Challenges and Responses", Section 10.](http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006RG000207.shtml)
    ($ reqd, sorry, so I’ll say more):

    Fig 21 shows CO2 deltas computed from pandemics and reforestration estimates, aligned with CO2 concentrations from the Law Dome, i.e. [as in](ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/law/law_co2.txt)

    Ruddiman says: “In summary, pandemic-driven reductions in atmospheric Co2 can explain half or more of the ~7ppm drop between 1200 and 1700. Depending on the highly uncertain size of the global mean cooling during this interval, this anthropogenic forcing could account for anywhere in between 16% and 66% of the total cooling.”

    In this case, the relevant pandemic would be the native American one, i.e., Europe’s problems with the Little Ice Age maybe have been partially self-inflicted by bringing smallpox to America.

    Ruddiman writes:

    “An estimated 80-90% of the pre-Columbian population (50-60 million people) dies between 1500 and 1750, with the highest losses probably occurring in the 1500s.” By adding up various specific cases, he estimates ~13.8 Gigatons of C sequestered via reforestration. Given the lag times between people dying and reforestration, what you’d expect is a dip in CO2 towards the end of the 1500s, as forests re-establish themselves, and then later, get back into steady-state. Then, after a while, European settlers start cutting enough trees to be noticeable.

    From the Law Dome records:

    From 1006 to 1570, CO2 usually stayed above 280ppm, with two points below (279.4 in 1006 and 279.6 in 1465). and an average of 281.8. Then:

    1589 278.7
    1604 274.3
    1647 277.2
    1679 275.9

    1794 281.6 (first time back above 280.0)

    (Maybe someone can find a 1000AD-2000AD graph of Law Dome CO2, which makes it really obvious that CO2 fell off a small cliff into 1600AD.

    Now, it *could* be an accident that the biggest drop in CO2 in the last 1000 years just happens coincide with the reforestration from the biggest die-off in human history…

    Sorry, if someone can look at that graph and tell me that current temperature rise is just “rebound” from LIA … then they’re the sort who wouldn’t be surprised if dropping a ball 1 foot caused it to rebound 5…

  12. #12 cohenite
    May 4, 2008

    I certainly don’t say that current temps are a ‘rebound’ from the MM, but they are certainly different. I do say it is incredibly speculative to suggest past population fluctuations of humans and their consequent deforrestation habits is responsible for CO2, and therefore climate oscillations; you may as well say that fluctuations in animal herd numbers, and their effect on plant life, had an impact.
    BTW, here is a CO2 graph which covers the 1000-2000 period and puts it into some sort of perspective;

    http://bp0.blogger.com/_0oNRupXJ4-A/SANF6KuP1sIAAAAAAAAATQ/FP8y3DPkssY/s1600-h/images277.gif

  13. #13 Nick
    May 4, 2008

    That proves it then; Newcastle stopped coming out of the LIA in the late 19th century.

  14. #14 cohenite
    May 4, 2008

    Sorry, having trouble getting that graph up; the perspective will have to wait.

  15. #15 Steve L
    May 4, 2008

    In response to the realclimate 8 yr trend figure, and I guess in support of AGW-deniers, there are only a few (5) negative slopes shown and they are associated with strong sulfate injections (via vulcanism). The point is well-taken that the current/recent 8 yr trends are positive, but the connection to questions regarding how unusual is the most recent 6 yr trend is pretty weak. I suppose a complete comparison for the purposes of rebutting AGW-deniers would also include other estimates of global temperature (whichever one they support most at the time).

  16. #16 Amaranthus
    May 4, 2008

    The issue of this global cooling nonsense has also been addressed here:
    http://www.aussmc.org/Is_the_Earth_Cooling.php

    It was interesting that Andrew Bolt cottoned on to that above and misleadingly painted it as a tet-for-tet debate between Brook and Kininmonth only – a balanced debate!

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/warm_under_the_collar/P20/

    (By the way, how to you embed links here – my standard method on other forums of [url=insert link] [/url] is not working here)

  17. #17 John Mashey
    May 4, 2008

    re: #12 cohenite

    Ruddiman’s work is clearly labeled, by him, as early hypotheses, and he may be right or wrong, and as data as appeared, he has modified his hypotheses (somewhat, and I’m working from his very latest piece), but he *is* a world-class (Google scholar: WF Ruddiman) paleo-climatologist who has:

    — worked through the gory details of the ways in which this interglacial different past ones

    — looked hard at the methane from animals and rice paddies

    — studied deforestration/reforestration patterns, down to the amount of land needed to support a person at various levels of farming
    technology

    — and published a lot of such work in credible peer-reviewed journals

    His ideas are taken seriously by people like Richard Alley, James Hansen, Ray Pierrhumbert, Jon Overpeck, Stephen Schneider … whose opinions carry some weight in this turf. What weight should we ascribe to the anonymous opinions?

    [IUOUI: Ignore Unsupported Opinions of Anonymous Individuals :-)]

    Suggestion: read what he says before opining on it. The book will cost you less than $20, and you might learn a lot, as it’s quite well-written, and accessible even if you don’t have much math or physics background. If you want more, you can look at the more detailed technical papers, many of which are freely accessible, or at least look him up in Wikipedia.

    Have you read his book and the papers, and maybe even corresponded with him? In which case, let’s go debate the details, as they are quite interesting, and the process by which hypotheses evolve is well-illustrated here.

    If not, then for you to dismiss all this as “incredibly speculative” hints of Dunning-Kruger Effect to me, but at least that’s curable with some study.

  18. #18 Chris O'Neill
    May 4, 2008

    Mick:

    I can’t believe warmists believe that warming after an ice age(!!) is unprecedented and alarming.

    I wasn’t aware that we were still experiencing an ice age in the 1950s and 1960s. Thank you Mick, you are so informative.

  19. #19 dhogaza
    May 4, 2008

    I do say it is incredibly speculative to suggest past population fluctuations of humans and their consequent deforrestation habits is responsible for CO2, and therefore climate oscillations

    Ah, yes, the incredibly accurate instrumental record from the mid-1600s to the mid-1700s being quoted by a denialist who undoubtably will also argue that the modern instrumental record is so inaccurate as to be useless …

  20. #20 dhogaza
    May 4, 2008

    I do say it is incredibly speculative to suggest past population fluctuations of humans and their consequent deforrestation habits is responsible for CO2, and therefore climate oscillations

    Not to mention that this is a strawman, since only denialists claim that the science proclaims that CO2 concentration is the only driver of climate …

  21. #21 cohenite
    May 5, 2008

    Well, can strawmen suffer from Dunning-Kruger effect? The Ruddiman/Broecker-Stocker debate seems to have an element of tautology inherent since no matter what correlation exists between nominated anthropogenic activity and CO2 levels any causality remains moot; as dhogaza has so graciously pointed out by implication CO2 is not the only driver of climate; as an aside, since I agree with this, I must not be a denialist (what an ugly term).
    Far be it for me to denigrate GISS temp records, so let me query historical records for CO2 instead. The Lawdome results have been criticised by Jarowosky, who in turn has been criticised by everyone at RC; I won’t even mention Beck, but it is still undeniable that at the beginning of the Tertiary CO2 levels were at 1000 ppm.
    The other relevant historical context is that the Holocene is still coming second to the Eemian; will the H beat the E? Is it desirable for humanity that it do so? If so, is there anything humanity can do to prolong the H and delay the Milankovitch crunch. This is has been the missing element of this debate; namely that warmth is better for humans than cold, but the attitude towards heat since this debate has began has been decidedly frosty; so ladies, that is the question; and ignoring the strawman of runaway, is the recent heating (and again I’m ignoring the debate about whether there has been some) a desirable, on balance event?

  22. #22 guthrie
    May 5, 2008

    COhenite- I’m talking global, or at least hemispherical temperatures. Reffering to the CET is irrelevant. You are aware are you not that the majority of the contiguous USA has warmed very noticeably, except for a state or two in the East, which have in fact cooled. This is entirely to be expected.

    Moreover, as dhogaza has pointed out, the old temperature record has major problems, and that Sargasso sea paper you pointed to covers the Sargasso sea, and nobody is denying that some parts of the northern hemisphere were pretty warm 1,000 years ago, its just that there is no evidence to suggest that the entire hemisphere was warmer than the late 20th century.

  23. #23 Jeff Harvey
    May 5, 2008

    Cohenite writes: “I do say it is incredibly speculative to suggest past population fluctuations of humans and their consequent deforrestation habits is responsible for CO2, and therefore climate oscillations; you may as well say that fluctuations in animal herd numbers, and their effect on plant life, had an impact.”

    Are you being serious here? Really, honestly, truly serious here? Or is this a joke, a punch line?

    To be rather blunt, human impacts across the biosphere make the cumulative effects of mammalian herbivore ‘grazing’ appear like a drop in a very large ocean. There’s virtually no doubt that the current spiking of atmospheric CO2 levels is due to widespread human alterations – read ecological simplification – across the biosphere. Human activities are profoundly affecting biogeochemical and hydrological cycles over exceedingly large spatial and temporal scales. Many of these changes are unprecendented in hundreds of thousands or millions of years, and certainly there is no evidence that any other evolved inhabitant in the planet’s history has been able to manifest such effects. Stanford ecologist Peter Vitousek’s 1994 McCarthur Award winning article in the journal Ecology gives more details that I will here.

    Therefore, I hope that your grazing comment was made with your tongue firmly in your cheek…

  24. #24 cohenite
    May 5, 2008

    guthrie; in respect of US warming; are we talking the USHCN or the NOAA versions?
    Jeff; I never stand between a man and his hope.

  25. #25 Bernard J.
    May 5, 2008

    Cohenite, demonstrating that he has a brain made of bakelite, spewed forth:

    This is has been the missing element of this debate; namely that warmth is better for humans than cold, but the attitude towards heat since this debate has began has been decidedly frosty; so ladies, that is the question; and ignoring the strawman of runaway, is the recent heating (and again I’m ignoring the debate about whether there has been some) a desirable, on balance event?

    1) I am calling you out on your sexist, or rather, misogynistic use of the word ‘ladies’.

    Defend yourself.

    2) Upon what evidence do you presume that a warmer average global temperature would benefit humanity, let alone the biosphere?

    Aside from the fact that you are such a cosseted, etiolated nimrod that you feel ‘better’ if it is warmer.

    Come on – evidence?

    And in the process you might include your ecological, medical, epidemiological and/or demographical bona fides. If you are able to.

    Idiot…

  26. cohenite posts:

    This is has been the missing element of this debate; namely that warmth is better for humans than cold, but the attitude towards heat since this debate has began has been decidedly frosty

    levite answers:

    The question is not whether some hypothetical warmer climate would be the best in some objective sense; maybe it would be. But that’s completely irrelevant to the issue. We are adopted to THIS climate; to the unusually stable climate we’ve had for the past 10,000 years. A change up OR DOWN would disrupt things unpredictably, except in the very broad outlines. Our agriculture and our economy depend on a stable climate.

    The very broad outlines predicted for global warming are increased droughts in continental interiors (ask the Europeans the Australians), more violent weather along coastlines, and sea level rise. Their combined effects are going to kill millions of people and cause trillions of dollars worth of property damage. That’s the issue.

  27. Hmm, am I seeing yet another round of iterative backpedalling by the climate inactivists?

  28. Sorry, I meant “adapted,” not “adopted,” of course.

  29. #29 cohenite
    May 5, 2008

    My, my, so much attitude, and heat;

    bernard; you seem the most excitable with your witty ad hominem approach: misogynism, no? Just a playful little deference to Denzel Washington in “Training Day”; you really need to get out more.

    Both happy bernard and Barton ask, or at least, dispute the virtues of a warmer climate; at the risk of being offensive, although the tone has already been set, a better man than both of you has clearly indicated the advantages of heat over cold: Lomborg in both his books presents the facts; in “Cool It”, his European comparison is instructive: in 2000 across 6 European countries there were 1219 deaths attributable to cold; at the same time there were 11560 deaths from heat. Sorry, barton but you couldn’t be further from the truth; the success of humanity dosn’t depend on stability, but on energy, warmth and technology.

  30. #30 WotWot
    May 5, 2008

    the success of humanity dosn’t depend on stability, but on energy, warmth and technology.

    How warm?

    And your claim about (climate?) stability not being important to human welfare and success is pretty, umm, interesting.

  31. #31 guthrie
    May 5, 2008

    He sort of has a point- in olden days, stability was important in terms of avoiding starvation, but it can clearly be seen in Western Europe that development continued all the way through the little ice age.

    Of course this aside, he (I assume its a he) ignores the fact that most oil refineries and nuclear plants are built beside the sea, and will become rather vulnerable over the next few decades.
    Here in Scotland, there are several railway lines and roads which will be destroyed by the sea level rise over the coming century. We are already having to fit new, larger drains to cope with the more concentrated rainfall brought about by climate change.
    The issue is not whether we are going to go extinct; but how much money shall be wasted on adapting after the fact to changes which have been predicted, as well as the reactions of the many millions whom climate change will adversely affect.

    As for US data, choose whatever you like, it’ll show the same thing.

  32. #32 cohenite
    May 5, 2008

    That, of course, should be 1219 deaths from heat, and 11560 deaths from cold. Is my face red.

  33. #33 Ian Gould
    May 5, 2008

    “in 2000 across 6 European countries there were 1219 deaths attributable to heat; at the same time there were 11560 deaths from cold.” (Quote altered in line with #32)

    And what were the figures from 2000 (or any other year) for South Asia and subsaharan Africa?

  34. #34 dhogaza
    May 5, 2008

    his is has been the missing element of this debate; namely that warmth is better for humans than cold, but the attitude towards heat since this debate has began has been decidedly frosty

    How much warmer? 1000 degrees C warmer? 10000?

    Can’t you see how stupid your argument is?

  35. #35 Nick
    May 5, 2008

    August 2003 was a bit warm for about 35000 Europeans…

  36. #36 Daryl
    May 5, 2008

    Cohenite (Cohey), Please come back to Andrews’s blog, your not ready for this – these people will tear you to shreds.

  37. #37 Bernard J.
    May 5, 2008

    Guthrie, I take your point in #31 above, but I think that the post-mediaeval Western development (which involved a fair bit of pinching of colonial resources and novel crops) is just a small part of the modern story. After all, most of the world is not Western!

    Cohenite – for better or worse, humanity is dependent on a stable climate. Not convinced? Well, we need stability for global agricultural production reasons, and for any semblance of stability in the world’s ecosystems upon which we irrefutably rely for fisheries, timber, novel pharmaceuticals, crop genetic diversity, water purification… and this is just for starters.

    As a random example, a few days ago I linked to a paper printed in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in which the researchers found a 10% drop in rice yield with a 1ºC increase in average minimum diurnal temperature. Given that the world is currently on a bit of a knife-edge as far as food production goes (although many fat Westerners such as we, who tippy-type at out keyboards, are blissfully unaware of it), an apparently insignificant phenomenon such as this could bring shortage to many people. It wouldn’t even need to apply to all rice varieties to have a huge impact.

    Maybe the technology with which I worked for many years can bring some GE answer to the table, but in any shift from current climate stability we will be playing catch-up, and we will only be addressing those issues that affect the technological societies the most.

    A change in climate would also have profound impact in the distribution and emergence of diseases (big issue), and on the distribution of water – another Big Issue. There’s no easy way to technology ourselves out of these, even with a Great Big Pot-full of DDT.

    And given that another of your tripod’s leg’s, energy, is showing signs of termite activity, our technology’s reliance on energy to actually drive tech development is definitely looking to be compromised down the track. And that is apart from our direct requirement for energy simply to grow food, to make what nik-naks we currently consume, to warm ourselves (usually more than is physiologically necessary) and to move from A to B.

    So even if we didn’t need climate stability (and only a crazy person would claim this), we definitely need energy stability. Um, isn’t this why we are kicking seven colours of snot out of folk who have the dubious fortune to own the hydrocarbons we so crave? If societies that aren’t ‘technological’ are suffering themselves from an unstable climate, they might take umbrage at our shenanigans in contributing to it. And guess what, such societies are where we get our go-go juice and our chocy-treats and much other ‘stuff’ from…

    Stability seems written into the equation where you like it or not.

  38. #38 luminous beauty
    May 5, 2008

    How about 2003? Heat/cold related deaths in Europe?

    http://www.lomborg-errors.dk/coolitBchap2heat.htm

  39. #39 climatepatrol
    May 5, 2008

    I have two “excuses” or points for Michael Duffy:

    1) Temperatures from 2002 through 2007:
    0.46, 0.46, 0.43, 0.48, 0.42, and 0.40. And here is the comparing graph of the two datasets along with IPCC projections: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/material/globaltemperatures.pdf as posted at Realclimate.org according to Rahmstorf et al., Science 2007. How much is the 8-year trend of both Hatcrut3 land-ocean and Gisstemp land-ocean? It was Hatcrut3, not Gisstemp Duffy was referring to.

    2) The new German paper as published in “Nature” on May 1, 2008 and is probably described best online at BBC News under the heading “The Earth’s temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade, as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase, scientists have predicted.”
    (Keenlyside, N. S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, 2008: Advancing Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector. Nature, 453, 84-88). The paper was reviewed by Richard Wood from the Hadley Centre, who cautions that “this kind of modelling is in its infancy; and once data can be brought directly from the Atlantic depths, that may change the view of how the AMO works and what it means for the global climate.” So contrarry to what went into the latest IPCC report, a 60-70 year cycle called AMO was finally taken into account as an event that has a decadal cooling effect over the average of the whole globe. I am fully aware that the European scientists managed to “assimilate” unchanged climate models with new ocean data and thus claim that the climate will warm again fast after 2020. But why is the claim that the warming trend since 1976 has stopped (as supported by the newest figures and science), is in itself wrong?

  40. #40 luminous beauty
    May 5, 2008

    But why is the claim that the warming trend since 1976 has stopped (as supported by the newest figures and science), is in itself wrong?

    “Not even wrong.”
    —Wolfgang Pauli.

    It is a claim that is statistically meaningless, i.e., empty noise.

  41. #41 Betula
    May 5, 2008

    Bernard.

    You stated….”Upon what evidence do you presume that a warmer average global temperature would benefit humanity, let alone the biosphere?”

    The question could easily be asked…..Upon what evidence do you presume that a warmer climate would only be detrimental to humanity?

    This from page 96 of Climate of Fear……
    http://www.cato.org/pubs/books/climate/089-102.pdf

  42. #42 guthrie
    May 5, 2008

    bernard- my not so well expressed point was more to close off another avenue of argument early.

    Betula- a variety of scientific evidence, such as in post #37, show that warming on the scale anticipated will be bad for large chuncks of the worlds population.
    Some will benefit. Many won’t. The world is already uneven and painful enough without us adding to it.

  43. #43 luminous beauty
    May 5, 2008

    Ethics according to Betula:

    A few more nice spring days in northern cities balances out unspeakable death, destruction and disorder for millions in tropical and sub-tropical populations.

  44. #44 cohenite
    May 5, 2008

    So much pessimissm at this place.
    dhogaza; 10000? I presume you mean centigrade? I did say, ignoring the strawman of runaway. Craig O’Neil in April 2008 Australian Science does a tectonic comparison between Venus and Earth to establish runaway is not possible on Earth. Anyway, if it was going to happen as a response to CO2 levels, it would have already in the geological past when CO2 levels were 10 times what they are today and the cooling point of Anarctica was not in place. Jeffery Glassman has done an interesting piece on thermohaline circulation and ocean storage capaity of CO2 which should be read in conjunction with O’Neil. O’Neil notes:

    Water, absorbed into the oceanic crust as hydrous minerals, follows the plate into the mantle. Similarly, dissolved carbon dioxide in the oceans can precipitate to from calcite, which is then deposited on the plate and likewise recycled into the mantle.

    For O’Neil “plate tectonics act as an essential regulator of atmospheric composition and thus a thermostat for the planet’s temperature throughout history”. Even so, the fact that CO2 levels have been so much higher in history simply negates the dominance of CO2 as a climate driver (ie not the only driver).

    bernard; I should have said that humanity relies on energy, warmth and technology, with as much stability as we can get. But we are not going to get stability. Ruddiman may or may not be right about the Holocene being possibly extended by AGW, but the fact is the interglacials are shortlived. I think you also underestimate human ingenuity while, rightfully, focusing on some of the inequalities. But I must say there is a strong Clive Hamilton undercurrent of disapproval in your comments; “fat Westerners” and “nik-naks” indeed. You also ignore the massive dislocation and cost which will occur if kyoto is implemented; even if there is a disease, the cure may be worse, which is Lomborg’s point.
    luminous, I appreciate your your link and will look at this issue of warmth being better than cold further and get back.

  45. #45 brightmoon
    May 5, 2008

    “I can’t believe warmists believe that warming after an ice age(!!) is unprecedented and alarming.”

    with CO2 levels at 380 ppm …and rising …im surprised that were not having more trouble that we are

    they’ve KNOWN that this increase in CO2 levels would be a problem since the 1950s

    the IPCC was started BECAUSE those early climate change preditions from the 50s started coming true

  46. #46 dhogaza
    May 5, 2008

    “I can’t believe warmists believe that warming after an ice age(!!) is unprecedented and alarming.”

    Scientists don’t give a flying fuck about your personal inability to understand science.

  47. #47 z
    May 5, 2008

    “This is has been the missing element of this debate; namely that warmth is better for humans than cold, but the attitude towards heat since this debate has began has been decidedly frosty”

    yes, the polar bears also, as they can take off those expensive warmup suits. somewhere darwin is weeping as he spins like a top.

  48. #48 Ken
    May 5, 2008

    These debates sound a lot like slow versions of fiddling while Rome burns. Denialism has been very effective – despite lots of good evidence that AGW is really happening (I’m talking things like borehole temperatures, ice loss from ice sheets and glaciers, all the phenological evidence of changes, measured sea level rise etc, not theoretical stuff) – real policy action in Australia is still being deferred at the same time as new coal mines are being brought on line. No restrictions of coal exports to those consumers that use CCS (does it even exist?). Fossil fuels are not being phased out or replaced and R&D money is going mostly to CCS (does it even exist?) whilst real Australian energy innovation finds anywhere to be better than here – Ausra to California, Vanadium redox batteries to Canada, Crystalline Silicon on Glass to Germany. It’s a good bet that, just as fuel prices are making hybrid and electric vehicles a sensible option, taxes on petrol and diesel will be cut in order to improve electoral chances, voted in by people who find the anti science of denialism much more attractive than the best science reflecting reality.
    Short term expediency is going to keep winning out over long term sustainability, at least in Australia. The US, which demands the world be followers of their lead, isn’t any better. Should we be looking more to Europe? I suspect their long history of Civilisation makes them more receptive to understanding there are limits and consequences to ignoring them. The exploitative economies, reliant on abundant resources and ignoring long term consequences, like the US and Australia, will continue to rely on denying those consequences are significant.

  49. #49 Chris O'Neill
    May 5, 2008

    “climatepatrol”:

    And here is the comparing graph of the two datasets along with IPCC projections

    You just don’t get it do you. IPCC projections do NOT predict El Niños or La Niñas or other short term fluctuations. How many times do you have to be told this?

  50. #50 Richard Simons
    May 5, 2008

    “The question could easily be asked…..Upon what evidence do you presume that a warmer climate would only be detrimental to humanity?”

    I do not believe anyone has made this claim. Can you back it up with a link?

    “This from page 96 of Climate of Fear…… ”

    You do realize that this is a work of fiction? By the way, I’ve given a brief extract of one of Crichton’s other books to undergraduate students to see if they could find the five blunders on the one page. He is not as informed about science as he and many of his readers would like to believe.

  51. #51 Betula
    May 5, 2008

    Richard Simons….

    Yes, I can back it up…..see #25, question #2.

    As for the second part of your comment…..do you realize predicting future catastrophies is a work of fiction?

  52. #52 Bernard J.
    May 5, 2008

    Guthrie.

    Your points do seem to be steering the wingnuts in other directions: they’re not getting back to you, and in particular I was hoping that at least one of them would comment on your point about the cost of remediation under a BAU scenario. But of course, if the climate is not going to change (or only change in a cooler direction) then no cost against warming will ever be incurred…

    I wonder what the insurance companies think about this premise? Hmmm…?

    Where I live even a 10cm increase in mean sea-level over a century would profoundly resculpt the coastal landuse for both humans and the ecosystems here. The local governments are seriously concerned; and I am sure that they run the numbers past as many bean counters as they can, yet they don’t seem to think that an Ice-age is imminent.

    Cohenite, I hardly think that mention of the simple fact of the weight of the average Westerner (very much an elephant in the room!), or the fact that we are a particularly acquisitive society, requires an invocation of Clive Hamilton or by implication the ‘extremeness’ that the conservatives label him with. These are two simple facts, and the processes that make these two simple facts a part of our culture have profound implications for the future progress of our society, especially if we anticipate that it will continue as it has for the last century or so.

    I am well aware of the ‘costs’ of implementing Kyoto: I am also well aware of the costs of not implementing it if even the best case scenario of warming were to occur. Of course, you and your friends are not convinced of the fact of warming, so I would ask a several simple questions of you:

    1) Is CO2 a greenhouse gas?
    2) If you said ‘no’ to (1), upon what evidence do you reach your conclusion?
    3) If you said ‘yes’ to (1), what forcing to you ascribe to CO2?
    4) Will the concentration of CO2 increase over the coming decades and centuries?
    5) If you said ‘yes’ to (1), at what point in the future do you predict that the combination of CO2 greenhouseness and CO2 concentration increase will result in a warming that you are prepared to acknowledge is warming?
    6) How far into the future do you think that we need to be concerned about anthropogenic changes to climate, if indeed we do have an impact upon climate?

    Betula, using “Climate of Fear” as a reference is probably the worst thing that you could do if you desired to retain credibility.

    It’s even worse that someone quoting Lomborg as an ecological/environmental reference.

  53. #53 cohenite
    May 6, 2008

    Bernard, I was once tested by a census taker and I invited him in for a nice bottle of chianti; I suppose you’d like next week’s lotto numbers as well? I think CO2’s heat retention and distributive properties are limited by Wien and Beer and Stefan-Boltzmann, and I don’t think atmospheric stratified thermal equilibrium, through a disparity between the rate of CO2 excitation and collisional deexcitation, prevents the effect of CO2 being limited. I think the carbon cycle is subordinate to the larger H2O cycle. I think the natural negative feedbacks and reservoirs are drastically underestimated, and I refer to O’Neil’s and Glassman’s pieces again; and I think natural variations and cycles such as the PDO/IPO’s will swallow humanity’s influence. I am far more concerned about localised and regional issues of pollution which I think have been neglected while AGW has held centre stage.

    As to non-carbon energy sources and future limits to anthropogenic CO2, one of the benefits of AGW is the growth of R&D in this area; personally, I’m a fan of thorium.

    Returning to the warming issue; AGW theory predicts that the coldest months will become warmer more than the warmer times; the CET data shows some conformity with this thesis; if AGW, lessons both seasonal and regional extremes, surely that is a good thing?

    As to sea levels; a local council, Lake MacQuarie, has just declared that it will impose a levy on all new developements; this will substantially increase the cost of building new homes

  54. #54 Chris O'Neill
    May 6, 2008

    cohenite:

    I think the natural negative feedbacks and reservoirs are drastically underestimated

    Instead of being a “thinking” ignoramus, why don’t you find out what many scientists have measured climate sensitivity to be without using models. James Annan has a very good survey of other papers in his paper.

  55. #55 climatepatrol
    May 6, 2008

    You just don’t get it do you. IPCC projections do NOT predict El Niños or La Niñas or other short term fluctuations. How many times do you have to be told this?

    That’s right. I just don’t get it. Whenever I talk about multidecadal events such as 60 to 70 year AMO and sometimes PDO cycles (5-20 years according to NASA), I am being referred to single El Niños or La Niñas. And how about a cold AMO phase coinciding with a cold PDO index coinciding with a looming weak solar cycle 24 coinciding with growing worldwide cloud cover? Are you suggesting that such possible examples of medium to long-term natural climate variations (not to say the word “climate shifts”) should be treated like short-term natural noise when looking at a 30 and/or 200 year trend line in global mean surface temperature? Come to think of it, so far I understand that the 30 year temperature trend from 1978 to 2008, as I understand the majority of people posting here, is considered as 100% human induced and bad, with short-term ENSO and major volcanic events being “noise” in that trend, is it not?

  56. #56 climatepatrol
    May 6, 2008

    @ Chris O’Neill
    Sorry, didn’t address it. Above post is in answer to your #54.

  57. #57 cohenite
    May 6, 2008

    Thanks for that chris; I am steadily educating myself out of the “ignoramus” stage; I found this paper to be of some assistance in respect of forcings and climate sensitivity:

    http://www.john-daly.com/forcing/forcing.htm

    I see you haven’t considered the O’Neil and Glassman references. Perhaps you can be more selective once you graduate from the ignoramus stage.

  58. #58 Ian Gould
    May 6, 2008

    “I think the carbon cycle is subordinate to the larger H2O cycle. ”

    Do you think the rate of change in atmospheric H2O levels and associated forcing over the past century has been comparable to the rate of change in carbon dioxide and methane levels?

  59. #59 cohenite
    May 6, 2008

    Good question Ian; I don’t know; ask these guys;

    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007JD008431.shtml

    Plus Joel Norris and Roy Spencer for clouds I guess.

  60. cohenite posts:

    Sorry, barton but you couldn’t be further from the truth; the success of humanity dosn’t depend on stability, but on energy, warmth and technology.

    Yes, cohenite, and our technology depends on our agriculture and our economy, which will be hit hard by global warming. Your simplistic idea that “warmer = better” is what couldn’t be farther from the truth.

  61. cohenite babbles:

    I think CO2’s heat retention and distributive properties are limited by Wien and Beer and Stefan-Boltzmann, and I don’t think atmospheric stratified thermal equilibrium, through a disparity between the rate of CO2 excitation and collisional deexcitation, prevents the effect of CO2 being limited.

    “Atmospheric stratified thermal equilibrium?” What in God’s name does that mean? After studying atmosphere physics for ten years I’ve never run across that one. Stratified atmospheres, yes. Thermal equilibrium, yes. But one has nothing whatsoever to do with the other.

    As far as CO2 being limited, in practice there is no upper limit; among the known terrestrial planets there is none that will not become hotter if you add more CO2 to its atmosphere. Even Venus has been hotter at times (900 K compared to the present 735 K, see Bullock and Grinspan’s many papers).

    And neither Wien’s Law, nor Beer’s Law (the Beer-Lambert-Bouguer Law), nor the Stefan-Boltzmann relation put any clear upper limit on a carbon dioxide greenhouse effect; certainly Beer’s Law doesn’t. From Wien’s Law you might possibly argue that the peak radiation of a very hot (2000 K or so?) planet would be in a CO2 absorption window. That has little relevance to the Earth, or to Venus, for that matter. BTW, the location of the windows also changes with temperature, and at high pressures and temperatures all kinds of minor CO2 lines come out of the woodwork and have to be accounted for.

  62. #62 jodyaberdein
    May 6, 2008

    RE: 53 cohenite

    ‘I think natural variations and cycles such as the PDO/IPO’s will swallow humanity’s influence’,

    So busness as usual until 2100 will not cause ANY warming even comparible to the natural variability? What’s your best estimate for climate sensitivity then?

  63. Great, now we know where cohenite is getting his misinformation from — the late John Daly’s crackpot web site, “Still Waiting for Greenhouse.” For a good review, check this out:

    What’s Wrong with Still Waiting for Greenhouse

  64. #64 Chris O'Neill
    May 6, 2008

    That’s right. I just don’t get it. Whenever I talk about multidecadal events such as 60 to 70 year AMO

    Last time I checked:

    2002 through 2007

    was much shorter than a multidecadal period.

    a cold PDO index

    So you’ve come back to life with PDO. Before I remind you where you got to last time with PDO, check “It’s Pacific Decadal Oscillation”.

    Are you suggesting that such possible examples of medium to long-term natural climate variations (not to say the word “climate shifts”) should be treated like short-term natural noise when looking at a 30 and/or 200 year trend line in global mean surface temperature?

    The surface temperature graphs you cited were not trend lines, they were of the annual temperatures.

    the 30 year temperature trend from 1978 to 2008 …. is considered …. bad

    Outside of my area of expertise. But I do understand the concept of risk.

  65. #65 cohenite
    May 6, 2008

    Very good barton, the ad hominem character assasination continues after death; well O’Neill is still alive and he is adamant that Earth could never be like Venus; I’ll stick with him for the time being, especially, and, any provocation is coincidental but still appreciated, since this source shows that atmospheric CO2 has been many times greater in the past with no correlative, let alone indisputable causal, connection with temp, or, gasp, runnaway:

    http://www.junkscience.com/images/paleocarbon.gif

  66. #66 guthrie
    May 6, 2008

    So Cohenite makes a lot of claims, but can’t back them up with anything.
    Why am I not surprised?

  67. #67 climatepatrol
    May 6, 2008

    @Chris O’Neill
    Thank you very much. That very informative link with graphs makes me finally understand your point regarding PDO and trends.

  68. #68 Betula
    May 6, 2008

    LB…..
    Sorry,I must have missed this one….

    “Ethics according to Betula:”

    “A few more nice spring days in northern cities balances out unspeakable death, destruction and disorder for millions in tropical and sub-tropical populations.”

    Your entire comment is unspeakable…. you are speculating on hypotheticals….and perhaps suffering from a bout of Fear of Future Phobia.

  69. #69 Ðano
    May 6, 2008

    this source shows that atmospheric CO2 has been many times greater in the past with no correlative .

    We should always consider policy responses based on analyses of conditions at a time when 90% of current species didn’t exist, and man was a tiny mammal scurrying about on the jungle floor of a continent in a vastly different position than today.

    Son, are you a parody character, created by a still-out-of-work Hollywood writer trying to stay in practice?

    Best,

    Ð

  70. #70 Ðano
    May 6, 2008

    Ah. Briefly scrolling upthread, we have:

    I am steadily educating myself out of the “ignoramus” stage; I found this paper to be of some assistance in respect of forcings and climate sensitivity:

    http://www.john-daly.com/forcing/forcing.htm

    Yup. This person is a made-up character.

    Mr Sockpuppet author sir, will you please practice your craft on stage or other traditional venues, and cease and desist here?

    This comedy is old and stale, has been seen many times before, and becomes no fresher when exposed to this air.

    Thank you in advance.

    Best,

    Ð

  71. #71 Chris O'Neill
    May 6, 2008

    cohenite:

    I see you haven’t considered the O’Neil and Glassman references.

    I wasn’t interested in responding to a strawman troll.

    Perhaps you can be more selective once you graduate from the ignoramus stage.

    cohenite on the other hand can be selective while still in the ignoramus stage. As well as saying “I think .. I think .. I think ..” while still in the ignoramus stage.

  72. #72 Chris O'Neill
    May 6, 2008

    cohenite:

    since this source shows that atmospheric CO2 has been many times greater in the past with no correlative connection with temp

    And did that source bear much relationship to the Phanerozoic temperature shown here. Maybe you should ask yourself a few questions before swallowing whole anything put up by junkscience.

  73. #73 Michael
    May 6, 2008

    There is much confusion over these temps…

    The UK Meteorological Office’s Hadley Center for Climate Studies Had-Crut data shows worldwide temperatures declining since 1998 not 2002. However, NASA shows a record increase since 1880.

    More confusion includes; Earth-orbiting satellites UAH (University of Alabama at Huntsville) and RSS (Remote Sensing Systems.) Both show of these show decreasing temperatures over the last decade, with present temperatures barely above the 30 year average.

    Why is it that scientists who report measurements of the earth’s temperature within one one-hundredth of a degree be unable to concur if the temperature is going up or down over a period of time? I believe revising the data over the years has helped screw the data. IPCC for example revised the temp data for the 1950’s which made them look cooler than previous data. This also resulted in higher warmer trends in other decades.

  74. #74 JM
    May 6, 2008

    Thanks Tim, very useful

  75. #75 Brian D
    May 6, 2008

    Michael (#73):

    No, HadCRUT doesn’t show a decrease since 1998; although 1998 is its hottest, it also omits most of the arctic. They only appear to show decreases if you’re eyeballing the short-term (noisy) data instead of performing statistical analysis on the whole dataset (i.e. they show up if you’re cherrypicking and doing poor analysis).

    Hop on over to Open Mind and look around — Tamino’s perhaps the most accessable data analysis source around when it comes to understanding what’s going on. Specifically, I’d suggest starting here.

    There’s a difference between a casual lay reader being confused and the professionals being confused.

  76. #76 Ðano
    May 6, 2008

    Why is it that scientists who report measurements of the earth’s temperature within one one-hundredth of a degree be unable to concur if the temperature is going up or down over a period of time?

    and then

    There’s a difference between a casual lay reader being confused and the professionals being confused.

    Correct. The people who do this for a living know that 1998 had a reason for being so noisy, and _climate_ is not a ten-year trend. Sure, one can say the RATE of warming is slowing, but to claim cooling (compared to what baseline? An already high recent baseline or, say, 1941?) is plain wrong.

    A case of laypeople attributing [projecting?] their confusion to professionals for whatever reason.

    Best,

    Ð

  77. #77 Hank Roberts
    May 6, 2008

    Michael, where are you getting what you believe? Why do you consider your source reliable?

    When I paste chunks of what you’re writing into Google, for example like this

    http://www.google.com/search?q=Center+for+Climate+Studies+Had-Crut+data+shows+worldwide+temperatures+declining+since+1998+not+2002

    Google finds those words and phrases consistently most often in sources that are advocacy/PR sites.

    If you can cite your beliefs to sources of support in published science journals — primary sources, not second-hand opinions — please do.

    If you’re repeating what you find as though you knew it to be reliable, consider the source, eh?

  78. #78 cohenite
    May 6, 2008

    Some of you guys don’t have a clue; there is a serious amount of scorn emnating from the prevailing attitude here that ‘we’ are the experts, and you “laypeople’ can go about your inconsequential, inferior lives while we high priests devise the science to substantiate the unheaval, economically and socially which will flow from our decisions. Oh, and by the way morally, we are better as well. I’ve already alluded to a local council decision based on ipcc sea level predictions, which will take $100,000 out of my pocket, more than enough to get a hollywood blockbuster to the concept stage; thanks dano for that idea, instead of building houses I should make movies; a sequel to “The Day After” perhaps!

    Barton I’ve checked your site and noted the list of papers which deal with forcing from CO2 and climate sensitivity; excluding the Moller and Idso papers; the average temp increase for a doubling of CO2 is 2.73C, with extremes of 5.2 for the Wison and Mitchell effort and .1 for the Sellers effort, although he does have another go and comes up with 1.32; a bit like ipcc and GISS, having another go to get it right; which is my point; it’s not as though the ipcc concept hasn’t landed on its snout several times; a game of hockey anyone? It, and you advocates are hardly infallible, despite the claim that this a new religion. As a ‘layman’ with some big vested interests, I want some more clarity before I sell up and move to the Himalayas; and please, no snide comments about greedy capitalists; I’m small time but I still put the hours in.

    By the way Barton, youoverlooked one paper on Climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling; be warned though, his conclusions are at the lower end:

    http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/Conf2007/Hammer2007.pdf

    Guthrie; noone has come back about the O’Neill reference.

  79. #79 z
    May 6, 2008

    ” I think the natural negative feedbacks and reservoirs are drastically underestimated”

    And I think that the present climate is only metastable, the closest thing to a feedback stabilized climate the earth has had in its history being ten degrees warmer; the main reason the earth’s temp is where it is now, being that 80% of the carbon which was once in the atmosphere has been buried as fossil fuel for a few hundred million years.

  80. #80 Bernard J.
    May 6, 2008

    Cohenite.

    I lived in Lake Macquarie, NSW, for over three and a half decades, and I would suggest that if the Council have recently made a development policy decision that is tied to future sea level rise, then they probably did so with the wisdom arising from future potential litigation, aside from any other consideration. Because if you are still around when any negative effect of sea level rise impacts upon your development, you are sure to be one of the first at their doorstep with your gaggle of lawyers in tow.

    I would also suggest if you were thus affected by a policy decision, and that you are out of pocket (because you have interests that conflict with (even ‘possible’) future sea level rise), that you were quite probably aiming to (re)develop land that would best be left alone. The Lake itself is almost a little version of the Murray, although few people are truly aware of the extent of its degradation.

    Now it’s your turn to have a hissy-fit.

  81. #81 Chris O'Neill
    May 6, 2008

    cohenite:

    By the way Barton, youoverlooked one paper on Climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling

    You are never going to get anywhere until you understand the difference between peer-reviewed scientific papers and stuff served up by lobby groups such as the Lavoisier society. You can swallow whole stuff put up by lobby groups if you like but don’t expect everyone to agree with you.

    noone has come back about the O’Neill reference.

    I did. I pointed out that it was a strawman. That’s because it dealt with geological processes that consequently have geological timescales. The processes at issue are much faster than geological processes.

  82. #82 Chris O'Neill
    May 7, 2008

    Michael:

    The UK Meteorological Office’s Hadley Center for Climate Studies Had-Crut data shows worldwide temperatures declining since 1998 not 2002.

    It’s not news that 1998 was 0.2 deg C warmer than otherwise because of a short term natural process. Considering that the AGW signal is 0.2 deg C per decade, we wouldn’t expect it to be warmer than 1998 until after 2008 (barring natural variation).

    Your confusion arises from not understanding the difference between the AGW signal and natural noise.

  83. #83 cohenite
    May 7, 2008

    Bernard; the law recognises the efficacy of bringing civil actions only within curtailed time parameters; that is why all civil proceedings have statutory time limits; some as little as 6 months; noone could feasibly bring a legal action against council for something they did or didn’t do 50 years previously; as well, government bodies are generally exempt from legal redress for nonfeance, as opposed for malfeance, where they actually do something badly. This smacks of pagentry.

    BTW, since you have bashed me around the chops with Ruddiman, you may be interested in this paper which takes a slightly different tack with the early man and CO2 thing:

    http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-2486.1995.tb00009.x?journalCode=gcb

    Chris; I don’t expect anyone to agree with me; this AGW is costing me, so I’m informing myself; I deal with engineers and they either give me the thumbs up or down when I show them some of these ‘non-peer-reviewed’ papers; they don’t lapse into this ad hominem, knee-jerk reaction; why don’t you treat them on their merits; this was the case with Barton and the Peter Dietze paper; Dietze runs the gauntlet of academic scrutiny, but just because he was associated with John Daly, who was a middie in a schooner glass, means automatic rejection.

  84. #84 Chris O'Neill
    May 7, 2008

    I don’t expect anyone to agree with me

    So you don’t expect everyone to agree with you swallowing whole the stuff put up by lobby groups. That’s like saying you don’t expect everyone to be as gullible as you are. Well, at least you recognize your own gullibility.

    I deal with engineers

    You’re dealing with one now, BTW.

    ‘non-peer-reviewed’ papers; .. why don’t you treat them on their merits

    It’s hard enough to be sure that a peer-reviewed paper doesn’t have substantial mistakes in it. Without peer-review you’re just rolling a dice and in the case of lobby groups, a loaded dice. If you want to see how peer-review matters, read Peer Review: A Necessary But Not Sufficient Condition and Peer Review: A Necessary But Not Sufficient Condition II.

    BTW, what rate of sea level rise estimate is the basis of your complaint? It’s already rising at the rate of 3.1 mm/year without anything to do with the IPCC. Your council would most likely impose a levy just from that.

  85. #85 cohenite
    May 7, 2008

    You misunderstood me when I anticipated that noone would agree with me; I was being site specific; there must be terrific peer review here with such uniformity of opinion; but here are some peer reviewed efforts:

    http://petesplace-peter.blogspot.com/2008/04/peer-reviewed-articles-skeptical-of-man.html

    As to your figure for sea-level rise of 3.1mm/year; that would be uniform too, I suppose? Certainly not at Port Arthur where it has risen 13 cm since 1841. You would be aware of the notion that large bodies of water behave similarly to water in a bath when subject to forces produced by global motion which causes the water to slosh and rise and ebb at opposite points of the ‘container'; so if it is higher on one side it will be lower on another; as an engineer you should be able to vouch for the validity of that.

    Regardless, sea levels 20500 years ago were 138 metres below what they are today; they had a rapid rate of increase until 5700 yers ago and there has been effectively no sea level increase for the last 2500 years; doesn’t correlate well with anthropogenic CO2 out-put, even if you take into account the retrospective guilt factor of Ruddiman’s work; knock yourself out here:

    http://sahultime.monash.edu.au/explore.html

  86. #86 Gavin's Pussycat
    May 7, 2008

    cohenite babbles:

    As to your figure for sea-level rise of 3.1mm/year; that would be uniform too, I suppose? Certainly not at Port Arthur where it has risen 13 cm since 1841. You would be aware of the notion that large bodies of water behave similarly to water in a bath when subject to forces produced by global motion which causes the water to slosh and rise and ebb at opposite points of the ‘container'; so if it is higher on one side it will be lower on another; as an engineer you should be able to vouch for the validity of that.

    This figure is from recent satellite altimetry observations (Topex/Poseidon, Jason, others) which are in a geocentric frame thanks to GPS positioning of the satellites. They are global averages (with the exception of arctic/antarctic caps), from which the global tidal constituents have been carefully removed. This theory is well understood and consistent with the altimetry. You cannot hide any “sloshing” in there sideways.

    About Port Arthur, no you cannot draw any conclusions from a single station like that. All of them have their own vertical geotectonic motions that get mixed up with the sea level change. It takes careful analysis over a global network of tide gauges to extract the eustatic (i.e., true volume change) sea level rise, e.g., correcting for the specific station motion using GPS. That has been done too, and the results agree with those from the satellites.

    Study, then pontificate.

  87. #87 Rattus Norvegicus
    May 7, 2008

    Cohenite spouts:

    > By the way Barton, youoverlooked one paper on Climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling; be warned though, his conclusions are at the lower end:

    > http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/Conf2007/Hammer2007.pdf

    If you had bothered to take a look at his paper, he stated in the summary that the sensitivity for a doubling from 280 to 560 would be .22C. Hmm… Considering that we are already at 3 times that amount, I’d say he was WRONG!!!!

    Cohenite, do you have any critical thinking capabilities at all?

  88. #88 jodyaberdein
    May 7, 2008

    I don’t wish to pour scorn, and would hope that my attitude was predominantly one appropriate to a scientific discussion i.e. expecting a reasonable answer to plainly stated question:

    So sensitivity, and by extension temperature under BAU until 2100?

  89. #89 cohenite
    May 7, 2008

    “Study, then pontificate.” I like it, I’ll do better.

  90. #90 cohenite
    May 7, 2008

    Um, Rattus, that figure of .22 is not Hammer’s figure for sensitivity; Hammer says that looking at all the absorbing lines, the “mean relative sensitivity should be less than .05 for CO2 concentrations between 280 and 560 ppm” (p.9). He converts that to a CO2 forced temp increase of .22C at 560 ppm. He gives H2O a sensitivity of .12 which he calculates would give a combined temp increase due to both CO2 and H2O of .48C. Anything above that would be due to natural forces, or alternatively, if it isn’t reached natural forces would be suppressing it; a scenario which ipcc is suggesting is happening now in our wonderful La Nina.
    Boy, ‘discussing’ things with you guys reminds me of Wilson Mizner’s description of working at Warner Bros; that’s for you dano since you’re a movie buff.

  91. #91 Chris O'Neill
    May 7, 2008

    here are some peer reviewed efforts (doubting AGW)

    So now the goal posts have shifted away from non-scientifically-peer-reviewed papers and I have to believe your list contains reviewed papers. In five seconds I can see a paper that was not subject to peer scientist review. Energy and Environment does not subject its papers to review by scientists working in the fields of its papers. How do I know your list is not just another dishonest global warming denialist list?

    As to your figure for sea-level rise of 3.1mm/year;

    It’s not my figure, it’s a satellite measurement.

    that would be uniform too, I suppose?

    You’re so presumptuous. No. Have a guess what might make the rate of rise accelerate. You can’t blame the IPCC for saying sea level is rising at 3.1 mm/year. Your council could easily slug you without the help of the IPCC.

  92. #92 Chris O'Neill
    May 7, 2008

    He converts that to a CO2 forced temp increase of .22C at 560 ppm.

    This is an illustration of the garbage that can be put into non-peer-reviewed papers emanating from lobby groups. The temperature sensitivity of CO2 alone can be calculated without climate models as 1.2 K/CO2 doubling.

  93. #93 cohenite
    May 8, 2008

    “Presumptuous.” Who are you, the pope? If the oceans are rising then the water isn’t coming from the Antarctic:

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/mar/global.html#seaice

    Maybe the water is coming from O’Neil’s tectonic recycling process; yes, I know the process completes on geological timescales, but it is continuous.

    As to CO2 temp forcing, I doubt it, given the temp rise last century was less than that; the reason why may be in this paper, which needs to read in conjunction with the Ferenc Miskolczi and Stephen Schwartz papers:

    http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0707/0707.1161v3.pdf

    Presumptous; coming from someone who throughs wiki at people; read what Lawrence Soloman has to say about wiki; peer review indeed.

  94. #94 Rattus Norvegicus
    May 8, 2008

    Cohenite spews, the slurps:

    > He converts that to a CO2 forced temp increase of .22C at 560 ppm. He gives H2O a sensitivity of .12 which he calculates would give a combined temp increase due to both CO2 and H2O of .48C. Anything above that would be due to natural forces, or alternatively, if it isn’t reached natural forces would be suppressing it; a scenario which ipcc is suggesting is happening now in our wonderful La Nina.

    You still don’t get it do you? We’ve already warmed by about .74C and we aren’t even halfway to 580ppmv. No matter how you spin it he’s still wrong. It is cute that he provides an out: natural variations are enhancing the currently observed warming, even though we are in the strongest La Nina since 1975. Well, if natural variation is such a huge influence on long term trends, we should see a strong drop in the trend, eh? But where is it? See Tamino for an analysis of recent trends. Or you could just look at the graph which this article references. The reason we don’t see such a big influence on decadal+ trends is that variablility of decadal+ scales is quite small, even annual variablility can be quite large. If you would actually bother to learn anything about climate you might be able to write something intelligent. Until then, don’t bother.

  95. #95 saurabh
    May 8, 2008

    I was given to understand that sea level rise is due largely to thermal expansion rather than added water, the harmful effect of which is mostly related to temperature and salinity changes. As such, the water doesn’t have to ‘come from’ anywhere – it’s already there. No?

  96. #96 cohenite
    May 8, 2008

    Ah Rattus; so temp has increased by .74C; that would depend on your source, which is one of the issues, isn’t it? I thought Tamino had changed his name to Bristlecone; anyway, I prefer an expert on PDO’s and IPO’s such as Easterbrook or Franks.

    As to strongest La Nina; I beg to differ:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

  97. #97 Gavin's Pussycat
    May 8, 2008

    “Study, then pontificate.” I like it, I’ll do better.

    You could start now.

    About Stephen Schwartz:

    G. Foster, J. D. Annan, G. A. Schmidt and M. E. Mann, Comment on `Heat capacity, time constant and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system’ by S. Schwartz, in press, JGR-D (Atmospheres):
    http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d5/jdannan/comment\_on\_schwartz.pdf

    Do you agree or disagree with this comment? Do you even understand it, or parts of it? If not… time for study :-)

    About Miskolczi, “Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Metrological Service.” I see nobody bothered with that one yet, there’s only so much nonsense that fits in a working day. Says Raymond Pierrehumbert:

    http://www.realclimate.org/?comments_popup=538#comment-83167

    …and see also two comments lower.

    (To be clear, the Schwartz study is not nonsense, just flawed.)

  98. #98 Bernard J,
    May 8, 2008

    Saurabh at #95.

    The interesting thing is that, aside from the fact that most rise is from thermal expansion as you note, there is an underlying loss of water of about 0.55mm/yr, according to Chao et al (Science 11 April 2008: 320(5873) pp. 212-214), resulting from the impoundment of water in the world’s artifical reservoirs. Apparently humanity has hindered ~10,800 cubic kilometers of water from reaching the oceans by its damming activities.

    I think that cohenite is going to have to selectively link even harder than he has thus far if he wants to try to make even a skerrick of a point.

  99. cohenite babbles:

    Very good barton, the ad hominem character assasination continues after death;

    Sorry, cohenite, but John Daly’s site is a crackpot site. That’s not either ad hominem or character assassination. I’m describing the argument, not the person. Deal with it.

    well O’Neill is still alive and he is adamant that Earth could never be like Venus

    No shit, Sherlock. In the short run, it can’t be. The Earth will become like Venus in a couple of billion years, as Solar luminosity rises. No one is saying global warming will cause a runaway greenhouse effect. The danger of global warming is of massive disruption to our agriculture and economy. You just need a few degrees rise for that to happen.

  100. cohenite writes:

    By the way Barton, youoverlooked one paper on Climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling; be warned though, his conclusions are at the lower end:

    http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/Conf2007/Hammer2007.pdf

    I read the paper. I recommend everyone here who knows at least a little radiative transfer theory read it — it’s an excellent example of “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.” The well-formatted paper, with charts, equations, and diagrams, would be convincing to someone who knows no radiative transfer theory, apparently including cohenite.

    What the author does, essentially, is to ignore the actual theory (e.g. the Beer-Lambert-Bouguer law), make up some equations of his own, and create an algebraic layer model based on his equations. He then uses that to prove that CO2 doubling would cause 0.12 K temperature increase by itself and 0.22 K with feedbacks, as opposed to the actual figure of 1.2 K (see, e.g., Houghton 2004) without feedbacks and 2-4.5 with.

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