With US combat troops withdrawing from Iraq’s cities it is time to compare the 4639 coalition casualties with the predictions made by warbloggers before the war:

John Hawkins: “Probably 300 or less”
Charles Johnson:”Very few”
Henry Hanks: “Less than 200”
Laurence Simon: “A Few hundred”
Rachael Lucas: “Less than three thousand”
Scott Ott: “Dozens”
Glenn Reynolds: “Fewer than 100”
Tim Blair: “Below 50”
Ken Layne: “a few hundred”
Steven Den Beste: “50-150”

And there were roughly a million excess Iraqi deaths.


  1. #1 Betula
    July 28, 2009


    Is the following plagiarism?

    To treat your facts with imagination is one thing, but to imagine your facts is another.” ~John Burroughs

    Reality leaves a lot to the imagination. ~John Lennon

    How many legs does a dog have if you call the tail a leg? Four. Calling a tail a leg doesn’t make it a leg. ~Abraham Lincoln

    How reluctantly the mind consents to reality! ~Norman Douglas

    There is a fine line between dreams and reality, it’s up to you to draw it. ~B. Quilliam

    There’s something beautifully soothing about a fact – even (or perhaps especially) if we’re not sure what it means. ~Daniel J. Boorstin

    I believe in a real, physical world. I figure if the world existed only in my mind, it would pay more attention to me. ~Robert Brault, http://www.robertbrault.com

    Every time I close the door on reality it comes in through the windows. ~Jennifer Yane

    An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it. ~Mahatma Gandhi

    Or how about this?


  2. #2 Mark
    July 28, 2009

    > Bluegrue…

    > Is the following plagiarism?


    > Posted by: Betula

    Petula, was that what you did in the post you’re accused of plagiarism?


    So it appears that you DO know how to avoid plagiarism it is just you don’t do it all that often and then whine squal and bitch about being brought up on it.

  3. #3 Betula
    August 5, 2009


    You ask me…”Petula, was that what you did in the post you’re accused of plagiarism?”

    Yes, it’s exactly what I did, selectively copy and paste consolidated quotes from a website. All quotes cite who said them……the website isn’t cited.

    I accept that is difficult for you to understand, and if you were in the vicinity, I would buy you an ice cream cone and a balloon.

  4. #4 bluegrue
    August 5, 2009


    From their homepage
    >The Quote Garden: A Harvest of Quotes for Word Lovers – http://www.quotegarden.com
    Copyright © 1998-2009

    Is this a new game you play, Betula? Find the page Betula plagiarized this time?

  5. #5 Lee
    August 5, 2009

    “Is the following plagiarism?”

    Yes, it is. Also, copyright violation, I suspect.

    Selection and organization of facts (quotes, listings of names and phone numbers, etc) are creative work and protected by copyright, even in the person organizing them does not have copyright over the facts being organized.

    Someone did the work of finding, selecting, entering, attributing, and making available, the quotes on that page. That is creative work that demands attribution to avoid plagiarism.

    One of my technical papers cites a fact that originated in an obscure old journal and paper, a strange and surprising observation that seems never to have been followed up. The datum was relevant and important, I found it as I was writing up my work, my work replicated it, extended it and gave it additional meaning, and it was important to cite it.

    The original paper probably exists in some archives somewhere, but despite a lot of effort trying I could not get the original – I found the fact in a single full sentence that was quoted, cited and properly attributed in a paper by a different group, published contemporary with the original. I cited it by quoting the sentence, and attributing it to “X, as quoted in Y.”

    To have left out the qualifier without having gotten and cited directly from the original, would have been plagiarism – denying the contribution of the intermediary author who quoted it and therefore made it available for me to find. As bad, it would have been intellectually dishonest, implying that I had directly and personally verified the accuracy of the quote when I quoted it.

    Standards may be looser on the Intarwebs, and Google often makes it easy to find the source of the plagiarized cut and paste. But loose acceptance of plagiarism on the internet, doesnt make it any less plagiarism.

  6. #6 Betula
    August 5, 2009


    The web site you linked has a copyright on quotes from Mahatma Gandhi, Abraham Lincoln and John Lennon?

    Now that is impressive.

    For you, I would buy an ice cream with sprinkles.

  7. #7 bluegrue
    August 5, 2009

    It’s not about the quotes, it’s about the compilation.

    Chocolate, vanilla, please.

  8. #8 Betula
    August 5, 2009

    At open thread 29 comment #39 we have this quote posted by Luminous Beauty……

    “The Earth’s natural climate is like a wild and angry beast. The goal is to not be poking it with sticks.”

    Unlike the quotes I posted, this quote is not cited by LB. This, from what I can understand of Lee’s logic, would be double plagiarism, since any site that contains this quote is also not cited by LB.

    Of course, not a peep from Lee or anyone else about that.

    You will also note, at open thread 29 comment #43, bluegrue attributes the above quote to Wallace Broecker, without ever mentioning the fact that LB didn’t cite it.

    This, which must be obvious to Lee, would make bluegrue an accessory to plagiarism.

    I feel as if I’m learning so much from this tight knit community at Deltoid and it’s selective plagiarism accusations…..that I wish I could take you all out for ice cream. You supply the nuts.

  9. #9 Lee
    August 5, 2009

    I just googled:

    “”The Earth’s natural climate is like a wild and angry beast. The goal is to not be poking it with sticks.””

    The only two hits are LB in that open thread, and Betula in this thread.

    If I remove the quote marks, there are a couple quotes that are clearly in the same family – I see it attributed in one form to Wally Broker, but there are other variants out there as well, and it is not easy to see where it originated.

    Yes, it would have been formally correct for LB to have said something like “it has been said that…”

    Also Betula, I’m not accusing you of anything. As I said, standards on the internet are rather loose – it usuay only amtters to me if the work is presented in a way that implies originality, or if the cut and paste is used to imply expertise that the person quoting it does not have.

    You asked if your cut and paste was plagiarism, and I answered your question – yes, it is.

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