The Australian‘s War on Science 41

Despite her training in law, Janet Albrechtsen was not able to figure out that the Copenhagen treaty wasn’t going to impose a COMMUNIST WORLD GOVERNMENT, so you just know that she has no chance in hell of understanding a scientific question. Albrechtsen claims that it is a “fact” that “Sea levels have remained constant for the past 30 years”. Study the graph below from the CSIRO to see that measurements from tide gauges and satellites contradict this claim.

i-4cee748b4930226cc78482d1044c7fab-sealevel.png

So how did Albrechtsen get it so completely wrong? Well, her authority, Nils Axel-Morner, completely ignored all direct measurements of sea-level from tide gauges and satellites. Simply really. Details in a previous post.

Graeme Readfearn (who, like Albrechtsen, works for News Limited) observes

wasn’t inquisitive enough to find out that Morner is treated like something of a joke among most oceanographers and quaternary scientists.

Albrechtsen tries to invest Morner with some authority because of his association with INQUA, but Readfearn gets a statement from the president of INQUA:

Dr Morner was, quite some time ago, president of one of INQUA’s commissions, indeed, the commission on sea-level changes. That commission no longer exists, as such, but is now part of our Commission on Coastal and Marine Processes. Dr Morner’s views concerning sea-level change are his own and are not endorsed by the current Executive Committee of INQUA, nor have previous INQUA Executive Committees endorsed Dr Morner’s views. On several occasions INQUA has requested of Dr Morner that he not inadvertently represent his views on sea-level change as if they have some connection with INQUA.

Comments

  1. #1 Dappledwater
    November 8, 2009

    Yup, bet she also neglects to mention Axel-Morner’s belief in water divining too.

  2. #2 GSJ
    November 8, 2009

    Axel-Mörner had a poster at EGU 2006 and it was a joke. It was on sea level, of course, and one of his plots was tilted relative to the page – I’ve never seen that. All of his references were to his own work.
    The fun part was that I and others were dissing his poster when he walked up… Much amusement followed.

  3. #3 sod
    November 8, 2009

    well, facts simply can t stop her.

    the “one single ecpert” approach has become a denialist credo. about 99% of the stuff found on denialist websites, is based on a single disagreeing expert.

  4. #4 Hank Roberts
    November 8, 2009

    > one of his plots was tilted relative to the page

    I hope someone took a photograph of that. Anyone? Please?

  5. #5 ben
    November 8, 2009

    Wow, sea levels have risen almost 8 cm since I was born back in the early 70s. We are frickin’ doomed! Quick, cap and trade!

  6. #6 Thomas
    November 8, 2009

    While the belief in dowsing may be amusing, I suspect his opposition to nuclear power in Sweden may be more efficient to point out to the kind of people who like to refer to Mörner as an authority. He has his own ideas about geology and the possibility of safely storing nuclear waste too…

  7. #7 GSJ
    November 8, 2009

    Here’s Mörner’s abstract from that meeting:

    http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU06/08637/EGU06-J-08637.pdf

    Unfortunately, I did have my camera but didn’t take a picture. Sorry.

  8. #8 Neil White
    November 8, 2009

    You can see Morner’s tilted graph
    in his evidence to the UK House of Lords

    Neil White

  9. #9 GSJ
    November 8, 2009

    Yep, that’s the one. Thanks, Neil.

  10. #10 el gordo
    November 8, 2009

    Morner is banking on the link between solar minimum and ‘the general speeding up of the earth’s rotation.’ This idea may have legs, but won’t get up anytime soon.

  11. #11 Alan
    November 8, 2009

    I expect CSIRO will write a rebuttal of Albrechtsen’s nonsense and submit it, with that graph, to The Australian. To ensure speedy delivery, they will deliver it by flying pig.

  12. #12 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  13. #13 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  14. #14 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  15. #15 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  16. #16 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  17. #17 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  18. #18 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  19. #19 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  20. #20 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  21. #21 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  22. #22 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  23. #23 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  24. #24 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  25. #25 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  26. #26 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  27. #27 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  28. #28 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  29. #29 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  30. #30 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  31. #31 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  32. #32 Hot & Bothered
    November 8, 2009

    The war continues – front page spread on Saturday (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/science-is-in-on-climate-change-sea-level-rise-17mm/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202916).

    Des Moore appears in today’s letters in support of the article – http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php .

    The IPA must be very pleased.

    BTW Tim here is a more up-to-date graph http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html which shows rapidly rising sea levels in recent years.

  33. #33 Michael
    November 8, 2009

    Making adjustments to the axis is perfectly good blog-science,
    http://denialdepot.blogspot.com/2009/09/arctic-sea-ice-staggering-growth.html

  34. #34 Michael
    November 8, 2009
  35. #35 TrueSceptic
    November 8, 2009

    2 GSJ,

    Hey, that’s [Denial Depot Quality!](http://denialdepot.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2009-09-12T04%3A39%3A00-07%3A00&max-results=5>

    Blog Science wins again!

  36. #36 Michael
    November 8, 2009
  37. #37 TrueSceptic
    November 8, 2009

    15 me.

    I screwed up the [link](http://denialdepot.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2009-09-12T04%3A39%3A00-07%3A00&max-results=5) but Michael got there first anyway. ;)

  38. #38 Tim Lambert
    November 8, 2009

    The *Weekend Australian* (which is the home of the really rabid denialists at *The Australian*) article on sea level rise will be the subject of TAWOS 42. As you might guess, it was a whopper of a cherry pick.

  39. #39 GSJ
    November 8, 2009

    Looks to me (as a Seppo) that Oz has the same sort of deluded morons that we do. Most disturbing – I thought the ‘States were fairly unique (and unfortunate) to have these kinds of knuckle-draggers.

  40. #40 Gaz
    November 8, 2009

    – I thought the ‘States were fairly unique (and unfortunate) to have these kinds of knuckle-draggers

    Of course the owner of The Australian *is* a US citizen.

    I wonder how he feels about his employees working so hard to ensure little Grace and Chloe will grow up in a world beset by an environmental catastrophe, and all the misery and violence that entails.

  41. #41 Jimmy Nightingale
    November 8, 2009

    Just like some of the denail crowd like to graph the current amount of warming against the Kelvin temperature scale, I’m surprised that they haven’t graphed the increase against the average depth of the ocean.

  42. #42 Donald Oats
    November 8, 2009

    When I read some articles about sea levels, picked up from some geological journals, PNAS and the like, they don’t reflect Nix-Axel Morner’s conclusions at all.

    When it comes to what is happening for a particular location, the Maldives for example – which Morner holds up as poor countries blackmailing richer countries – whatever happens there in the short-term is unlikely to have any noticeable impact upon the Global Mean Sea Level index.

  43. #43 JennieL
    November 8, 2009

    #8:

    You can see Morner’s tilted graph in his evidence to the UK House of Lords

    My. That’s, uh, not subtle, is it?
    The caption to that graph claims that it is “tilted back to original level,” and in the paragraph preceding he says

    When we three years later have the same record extended into year 2003 on the Webb, a tilt has been introduced. This tilt does not originate from the satellite altimetry readings, however, but represents an inferred factor from tide-gauge interpretations. In order to get back to true satellite data, we have to tilt the whole record back to its original data of Fig 4.

    I’m trying to work out what’s going on here. Is he really saying, “Oooh, the line in Fig 4 appears to be going up – that can’t be right! Better tilt the graph until it appears flat. There. Now I have proof that the line isn’t going up!”

    Because, uh… hmm.

    And Jimmy Nightingale @21 – don’t give them any ideas! Soon they’ll be coming around blustering about how that’s a perfectly valid thing to do, and why don’t we just prove that it isn’t.

  44. #44 dan satterfield
    November 8, 2009

    There is a [well known cartoon on the internet that sums up this kind of junk in the Australian](http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/upload/2009/03/indonesia_the_stupid_it_burns/thestupiditburns.jpg)

  45. #45 MarkB
    November 9, 2009

    Flat sea level over 30 years? Do these folks have no shame?

  46. #46 Jimmy Nightingale
    November 9, 2009

    Re #23

    Sorry JennieL, it just amazes me that it is exactly the kind of bizarro logic that they seem to enjoy. It makes me wonder what they’ll do when the sun starts cranking up into Cycle 24 and we get a decent El Nino again.

    Re #25

    I’m sure that they have no shame at all. Doesn’t Plimer argue that it is all some kind of rebound from the last ice age? I’ve also heard wierd things like the moon is getting closer to the Earth, meaning that the gravitational pull is increasing and is the cause. Complete and utter bollocks. I’m half tempted to write a bodgey paper on this for comedic value and see if I can get it published (a la the Quadrant hoax recently).

  47. #47 Marco
    November 9, 2009

    @Donald Oates: what is happening in the Maldives according to Mörner is rather questionable. One year after Mörner published his claims on the Maldives, a paper was published by Philip L. Woodworth questioning its conclusions.
    Another fun thing: in the 2004 paper Mörner referred to a “reef woman” as evidence that the sea level had been 60cm higher in the ‘recent’ past (a few hundred years ago, note that this was one single point on one island he took as evidence as somehow befitting for a long period). In 2007 in another paper, he linked that same woman to a tsunami event…

  48. #48 Snoof
    November 9, 2009

    You can’t fool me! That data’s been fiddled! Why else would the satellite records from 1870 to 1990 be missing, hmmm?

  49. #49 Gaz
    November 9, 2009

    Here is the link to [that cartoon](http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/upload/2009/03/indonesia_the_stupid_it_burns/thestupiditburns.jpg) referred to in Dan Satterfield (#24).

  50. #50 Janet Akerman
    November 9, 2009

    You warmists just don’t get it.

    If AGW were true then why would every piece of evidence be so flawed that it could be attacked so readily by the likes of Dr Morner and Dr Oressengo?

    Surely if AGW were true there would be some evidence that was beyond attack.

    Where there is smoke there is fire, and I find so much smoke about the flawed evidence in AGW that it just can’t all be wrong. QED the sceptics must be right.

    When you think about it, how could so many blog-critics, columnist and lobbyists be so wrong. Think about it people, they can’t all be that stupid!

  51. #51 Dave
    November 9, 2009

    @Janet

    Have a care, please – don’t you realise that if you say the name Dr Orssengo three times he appears in your thread and Rands you into submission?

  52. #52 Marco
    November 9, 2009

    Girma! GIRMA! GIIIIIIIRRRRRMAAAAA!

  53. #53 Dan R
    November 9, 2009

    [Mörner's sea level claims corrected in the literature](http://www.imedea.uib.es/goifis/OTROS/VANIMEDAT/documentos/intranet/Bibliography/Nerem_et_al_Global_Planet_Change_2007.pdf)

    Worth a read, if only to learn where he went wrong.

    [Also, Church et. al 2006 addresses Mörner's problems](http://staff.acecrc.org.au/~johunter/Church_et_al_2006_published.pdf)

    Again, worth a read.

  54. #54 Donald Oats
    November 9, 2009

    Since reading Janet Albrechtsen’s brilliant article demonstrating how to be a fawning sycophant, er sorry, on how to bring Morner’s insightful opinions on the reality of water divination to the ignorant masses, I have been happily walking around outside in the 38C day with a funny-shaped stick (looks like a little “y”, but that should be close enough, right? I mean, this is science!) looking for water. I knew I’d find some because Morner is a professor who knows how to divine for water and he knows something about how to find sea levels, I reckon – afterall, sea levels are all about water, right?

    Since I got back from the local hospital, thirsty and rather sun-burned, it being 38C and a heatwave in spring, I’m inclined to give water divining away and leave to the experts. If I hadn’t fainted from heatstroke and been taken away in the ambulance I’m confident that I would have found water nearby. I guess the permanent water restrictions cut my opportunities somewhat. Anyway, I am confident more than ever in just how skillful Prof Morner must be to able to divine water so easily; I mean, I couldn’t find any in the 6 hours of trying, so it must need the well-trained expert.

    Cheerio, from Murray Bridge SA,

    Donald Oats

    PS: Go Janet Albrechsten, you are a deadset legend!

  55. #55 David
    November 9, 2009

    *sigh* it is so embarrassing as an Aussie that one of our “premier” newspapers has filled its pages with such crap (Janet is a major perpetrator of repeat offenses). If anyone wants to get even more aggravated and/or saddened for Australia – check out The Australian’s articles on a human rights act for Australia (we don’t have one nationally, and actually have very little rights outlined in our constitution).

    It doesn’t worry my own personal convictions on what I read in The Australian about the evidence of AGW or the importance of declaring the rights of Australians in plain language law but people like my father and father-in-law read this shit and take it as gospel. I quite literally have asked them to consider anything they are about to posit as an argument, if they read it in The Australian I am extremely likely to shoot it down in flames and they will once again feel shown up and immasculated by a younger man.

  56. #56 inks
    November 9, 2009

    Loving the tilted graph!

    I saw the Denial Depot spoof a while back but it’s awesome to see the original.

  57. #57 Alan D. McIntire
    November 9, 2009

    Sea levels have been rising since the end of the last ice age, what does AGW have to do with it? Based on this University of Colorado site, sea levels haven’t risen at all since 2005

    http://sealevel.colorado.edu/

  58. #58 sod
    November 9, 2009

    If AGW were true then why would every piece of evidence be so flawed that it could be attacked so readily by the likes of Dr Morner and Dr Oressengo?

    those attacks are seriously flawed. Oressengo made the claim, that the earth is losing mass, because animals transform matter into energy…

    by endorsing him, you have become part of the crowd that obviously knows absolutely nothing about science or climate. one day, one of the slightly more educated “sceptics” will tell you the truth, and you will be seriously ashamed of what you wrote about him.

    i would pay a small fortune, if i could watch the people accompanied his “career” and gave him his PhD, while they read the nonsense that he wrote on Deltoid.

    Surely if AGW were true there would be some evidence that was beyond attack.

    you don t understand science at all. proof is basically impossible. evidence that is beyond attack is either extremely rare or non-existing.

    Where there is smoke there is fire, and I find so much smoke about the flawed evidence in AGW that it just can’t all be wrong. QED the sceptics must be right.

    i will follow your logic, and apply it to the works that you support. they get trashed, and they get trashed by competent people and they get trashed in scientific papers.

    logic is not your strong point either?

    When you think about it, how could so many blog-critics, columnist and lobbyists be so wrong. Think about it people, they can’t all be that stupid!

    actually they are.

  59. #59 sod
    November 9, 2009

    Sea levels have been rising since the end of the last ice age, what does AGW have to do with it?

    increasing temperature expands water.

    why don t you share your data sources with us? many scientists will live to see your detailed informations about sea levels since the last ice age..

    BRING IT ON!

    Based on this University of Colorado site, sea levels haven’t risen at all since 2005 http://sealevel.colorado.edu/

    i eyeball this graph, and i am pretty sure that you are wrong. shall we take a closer lok?

  60. #60 Gaz
    November 9, 2009

    sod’s golden rule of trend estimation:

    *Unless the latest value in a series is higher than all previous values, the series is falling.*

    sod, do you really believe what you’re saying? Honestly? You can tell me – I promise I won’t tell anyone else. It can be our little secret.

  61. #61 Jimmy Nightingale
    November 9, 2009

    Re #37 and #40.

    Fair dinkum, the golden rule in statistics is to never start a trend line from an outlier. It’s “it’s been cooling since 1998″ all over again.

    It’s the trend that is the important thing (hint – it’s the black line on that graph) and if you think that is falling, then you had better buy yourself a white cane and a labrador.

  62. #62 Dave
    November 9, 2009

    @sod

    I believe that Janet was joking.

    On a slight deviation:

    > Oressengo made the claim, that the earth is losing mass, because animals transform matter into energy…

    I held off from saying this at the time (for the same reason that it is pointless to discuss the finer points of the orbital mechanics of the solar system with a geocentrist), but there is an element of truth to this. Not that the planet is losing mass – obviously that’s utter garbage and Girma seemed to be under the misapprehension that chemical energy works the same way as fission and fusion – but there is a infinitessimal matter/energy conversion taking place. Remember: a compressed spring weighs more than an uncompressed spring.

  63. #63 Gaz
    November 9, 2009

    sod, sorry that should have been “Alan D. McIntire’s golden rule of trend estimation”, and a query as to whether Alan actually believes what he says.

    Please, please forgive me. My brain stopped working for a moment.

    And sorry to waste your time too, Mr Nightingale. No need for a dog or a cane, just better proofreading by me.

  64. #64 Jimmy Nightingale
    November 9, 2009

    Re #43

    No worries Gaz. Sorry to lump you in with Mr McIntyre. Perhaps he could do with an extra white cane and labrador (and no offence intended to any blind people out there).

    I also apologise for being a bit feisty. The stupid comments from Nick Minchin last night and covered in the media this morning have me fired up. I’m in the throes of writing to both he and Turnbull about it.

  65. #65 Steve Chamberlain
    November 9, 2009

    sod (38): I think ‘Janet’ may be indulging in a bit of chain-pulling. Again ;-)

    Janet’s apparent bi-polarity makes me wonder if she’s not a ghost-writer for some trollumnists at The Oz – whether her syndrome is a necessary condition or an inevitable result I really couldn’t comment on :-)

  66. #66 el gordo
    November 9, 2009

    Back on the topic: The Australian ran the Four Corners scoop last night before the show went to air. They banner headlined it.

    Search The Age or SMH and there is hardly a murmur. Now that’s what I call balance.

  67. #67 Bernard J.
    November 9, 2009

    What’s [your point](http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/11/the_australians_war_on_science_42.php#comment-2061058) Fatso?

    That the Australian previewed Four Corners for reasons of balance?

    You obviously do not understand The Oz’s motivations…

  68. #68 JennieL
    November 9, 2009

    #44:
    Oh yes, last night’s 4 Corners was a doozy.
    For those who missed it, the transcript is up here. But for all the nutty goodness you really need to see the show. Hilarious and infuriating in equal measure.

    Minchin was a highlight of course, but I think Tony “People Skills” Abbott takes the cake for complaining about the “evangelical fervour of climate change alarmists.”

    I think those of us in Coalition-held electorates (and even those outside, ha!) should be demanding from our ministers a clear and unequivocal answer to two questions:
    (1) Do you accept or reject the hypothesis that there is a trend towards increasing global average temperatures;
    (2) If your answer is yes, do you accept or reject the hypothesis that anthropogenic CO2 is a significant cause of this warming trend.

  69. #69 Donald Oats
    November 9, 2009

    I can’t argue with that, JennieL 48. To the point.

  70. #70 Janet Akerman
    November 9, 2009

    >*logic is not your strong point either?*

    sod, I don’t need logic to be my strong point when my views are aligned with those of dispropotionate wealth and power.

    That is why lobbying has more influence on decision makers in our current political process than science.

    If you want to argue with logic, then that leaves me with more time, space, and column inches to recruit tea baggers, and the angry disaffected, clinging to their relgion and guns.

  71. #71 Chris O'Neill
    November 9, 2009

    I think those of us in Coalition-held electorates (and even those outside, ha!) should be demanding from our ministers a clear and unequivocal answer to two questions… (2) If your answer is yes, do you accept or reject the hypothesis that anthropogenic CO2 is a significant cause of this warming trend.

    The Age article pointed out that Minchin says most in the Liberal party are science denialists.

  72. #72 Jimmy Nightingale
    November 9, 2009

    The Oz has redeemed itself somewhat. Love this quote:

    “Border control is going along a treat and they come out behaving like total f…wits. They don’t know how crazy they look, because crazy people never do”.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/minchin-faces-liberals-backlash-over-climate-change/story-e6frgczf-1225796096325

  73. #73 JennieL
    November 9, 2009

    Chris O’Neill @51:
    Yes, but I think they should be made to say, individually and on the public record, precisely what part of the scientific consensus they reject.
    If, as they keep pretending to think, the Australian public agrees with them, they should be happy to allow their precise views to be publicised.

  74. #74 Janet Akerman
    November 9, 2009

    [Climate change: the Coalition’s new Hansonism](http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/10/the-coalition-need-howards-pragmatism-on-climate-change/)

    >*The best moment in last night’s 4 Corners was when palaeontologist Bob Carter, giving one of his spiels about why climate science is rubbish to a group of rural Queenslanders, asked his audience who was under fifty. Two or three hands went up.*

    >*Turn the sound off, and it could have been footage of a One Nation meeting in the 1990s: old, white, rural people, confused and unhappy.*

  75. #75 Chris W
    November 9, 2009

    Notwithstanding Graeme Readfearn’s excellent article linked above, saw an nice anti-News Ltd bumper sticker down at my local school: “Is what you said true … or did you read it in the Courier Mail?”

  76. #76 Bill O'Slatter
    November 10, 2009

    Yes ,last nights Four Corners was revelatory. It is O.K. for politicians to not believe in AGW, but it it is irresponsible of them to be unwilling to listen to the science or to justify (rationally) their position. The execrable Barnaby Joyce barked a few lunatic catchphrases.Itis certainly revealing of the way these denialist politicians decide a matter, and that is by judging whether it is commie or not.

  77. #77 el gordo
    November 10, 2009

    This is not a Hansonian phenomenon, it is too widespread. Word is, they also have cadres in the cities.

  78. #78 Bernard J.
    November 10, 2009

    El Corpulento.

    In other words, just as there is not bottom to Stupid, there are no boundaries to Ignorance.

    I suspect though that there will still be diagnostic features common to most denialists, whether urban or otherwise. High on the list would be a lack of aquaintance with scientific understanding, and with scientific process.

  79. #79 el gordo
    November 10, 2009

    Being ignorant and stupid is bad, but being ignorant and arrogant is worse.

  80. #80 Alan
    November 10, 2009

    Blanket reply to 56, 57, 58 and 59.

    Amongst commentators on global warming,
    [IQ of speaker + decibels of speech] = universal constant D. I estimate D = 180.

  81. #81 Janet Akerman
    November 10, 2009

    >Being ignorant and stupid is bad, but being ignorant and arrogant is worse.

    From the self aware individual who knows that 99% of climate science is wrong in spite of the overwhelming evidence. And who knows we are heading into a dramatic period of dangerous cooling!

  82. #82 Steve Chamberlain
    November 10, 2009

    Re the increasingly bizarre machinations of the (Oz) federal Coalition (Coagulation?)…

    1) On this morning’s ABC radio current affairs programme AM, Ian McFarlane finally owns up to the fact that CCS is a dead duck (like he and John Winston & co didn’t already know that when they shovelled several hundred milllion taxpayer $$$ into the coffers of the power generation and mining lobby on the pretence it was “research funding” before they got their marching orders). Transcript here.

    2) From Murdoch’s ‘flagship’ rag, more Postcards from Inconsequentia (a small planet way out on the far right edge of the constellation Credulity):

    “But today Liberal MP Bronwyn Bishop joined the attack, backing Senator Minchin’s outspoken comments on last night’s Four Corners program, suggesting it was he and not Mr Turnbull who was speaking for the party.

    “I thought Nick Minchin put the position of the partyroom very well,” she told Sky News….”

    (Bronwyn Bishop? Bronwyn Bishop?!?)

    And, wait for it… this gem:

    “The climate change stoush comes amid fresh speculation Joe Hockey is positioning himself for the leadership with a speech on God and religion.”

    Holy Clathrates, Batman. I don’t know whether to laugh, cry or just book the next outbound flight and hand in my passport…

  83. #83 Bernard J.
    November 10, 2009

    Alan.

    I am curious to test your hypothesis.

    At what decibel level do you perceive my speech to be delivered?

  84. #84 el gordo
    November 10, 2009

    Remember NSW Premier Bob Carr was initially given the job of ‘caretaker’ opposition leader, until they could find someone better. Joe Hockey will be given the caretaker roll when Malcolm bows out.

    If there is a DD election and both houses are up for grabs, the Coalition party room will choose a winning ticket. They won’t be mucking around, it’s do or die.

    Over the next few months the ‘right’ will begin reforming and purge the Fabians on their front bench.

  85. #85 Bernard J.
    November 10, 2009

    Steve.

    McFarlane said as much about CCS last night on Four Corners, although it basically slipped under the radar.

    More spectacularly was his comment that there would never be another coal-fired power station built in Australia. NOw that was a big call, coming from a previously dyed-in-the-wool denialist!

    Strange times. If only more of the Coalition was as intelligent as McFarlane has demonstrated himself to be.

  86. #86 Chris W
    November 10, 2009

    El gordo @ 59. Yeah I agree, based on last night’s 4 Corners, I think the last half of your claim nails Cory Bernardi perfectly.

  87. #87 Bernard J.
    November 10, 2009

    Gosh, Steve, I missed your comment about Hockey speaking on God and religion…

    Et tu, Brutus?

    Oh my, I’m incapacitated from laughing…

  88. #88 sod
    November 10, 2009

    sod (38): I think ‘Janet’ may be indulging in a bit of chain-pulling.

    i noticed, by now. looks like i was more than half asleep, when i wrote my reply…

  89. #89 anthony
    November 10, 2009

    The Nats can surprise – Tim Fisher was a genuinely decent person and in the case of McFarlane, it’s hard not to like a man with a voice like a gravel truck. There seem to represent a split in rural life between the Hanson crowd and a more thoughtful group of business people who can see the bigger picture.

    Joyce is a clown playing up to the peanut gallery. The telling point was when the National Farmers Federation recognised that climate change was something that had to be dealt with. Who’s he representing? Good question.

  90. #90 Bernard J.
    November 10, 2009

    Chris W.

    Yes, there’s something more than a little disturbing about the way Cory Bernardi (gack!) thinks…

    In fact, the ‘extreme sceptics’ in general are a weird mob. Consider that, as related by Four Corners, a delegation of Australia’s most eminent scientists approached the Coalition in order to educate them about the real science behind AGW – and the most rabid of the Coalition refused to meet with this group.

    [Warning, snarky sarcy alert...]

    What do these denialists think that they know that experts – qualified, trained, and practising in the field – do not know?! Ah, of course… they know that Carter and Plimer are also ‘eminent’ climate scientists!

    Which reminds me. I [misrepresented Carter](http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/11/open_thread_35.php#comment-2059240) previously: what he actually said was “I’m a scientist – I work in the area of climate change”. He did not actually say that he was a climate scientist, although I suspect that any but the most pedantic would not see the difference.

    Nevertheless, using Carter’s weasle words I could probably make the same statement by virtue of the fact that I do some peripheral work on modelling what changes in bioclimatic envelopes will do, in ecophysiological terms, to the animals that I study. So there you are – I “work in the area of climate change”, even though, like Carter, I am not formally trained in climate science, I do not apply for grants to directly study climate science, I do not actually do research (directly) into aspects of climate science, and I do not publish peer-reviewed papers on climate science.

    Of course, Carter might claim that his McLean, de Freitas,& Carter 2009 paper constitutes ‘climate science’, but as has been [discussed previously](http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/07/ahh_mclean_youve_done_it_again.php), most reasonable scientists would very much beg to differ. The only other mildly serious candidates for climate research in his [publication list](http://members.iinet.net.au/~glrmc/new_page_4.htm) are the two papers with he co-authored with Gammon, and if I am not missing my guess I would say that the glacial work is likely Gammon’s PhD project, with Carter as supervisor only.

    Nah, no matter how you take the wrench to it, Carter looks like a stratigrapher and publishes like a stratigrapher.

    Boy, I’m glad that I didn’t step in it…

  91. #91 Hank Roberts
    November 10, 2009

    Oh wow.

    Hey, this suggests a challenge for BlogScience — for someone really good at Javascript, if it’s doable.

    Lay down a line on a standard grid.

    Create a tool that will adjust the graph paper to make the line look the way you want it to.

    I’d guess that for example the ‘hockey stick’ kind of line would look straight, from certain points of view, if plotted on a saddle-shaped graph — something like this:
    http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~scdiroff/lds/AstronomyAstrophysics/SaddleShapeUniverse/SaddleShapeUniverse002.gif

  92. #92 WotWot
    November 10, 2009

    Just watched 4 Corners.

    The conservative side of Oz politics has some serious nutters to deal with. Minchin, McGauran, Joyce (what an utter fool he is, who is likely to be responsible for destroying what remains of the National Party). Etc.

    Credit to McFarlane for some considered and honest comments, and showing that not everybody in the Coalition is creepy moron.

    If there is a DD election and both houses are up for grabs, the Coalition party room will choose a winning ticket. They won’t be mucking around, it’s do or die.
    Over the next few months the ‘right’ will begin reforming and purge the Fabians on their front bench.

    The Coalition currently do not have a chance at the next election, DD or otherwise, especially if they purge the “Fabians” and install the hard right as the dominant force within the party room. Guess it’s die then. Fine by me. They need a long period in the wilderness to bring them to their senses.

  93. #93 bit_pattern
    November 10, 2009

    Oh, the hilarity! Janet is in The Oz today accusing John Pilger of “fearmongering”, pretty ironic considering her hysterical ‘one world government’ conspiracy rant last week.

  94. #94 bit_pattern
    November 10, 2009

    And Tobias Ziegler at Crikey makes an interesting point regarding claims about government funded climate grants, the deniers love to point to people like Karoly as being biased because he has received government grants but beglect to mention their denier experts, like Bob Carter, have also recived government grants

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/purepoison/2009/11/10/we-need-a-climate-of-confidence-in-publicly-funded-research/comment-page-1/#comment-15958

  95. #95 Megan
    November 10, 2009

    Re: Chris W’s comment (no 54).

    Does anyone know where I can get a few of those stickers?

  96. #96 el gordo
    November 10, 2009

    WotWot

    It may happen, as you predict, but there is a danger in being over confident. The Coalition will throw down the gauntlet, accusing the other side of being collectively deluded over global warming. If this is carried to its limit, it will have widespread ramifications.

    People everywhere will be arguing. Make no bones about it, this fight will split families.

  97. #97 Chris O'Neill
    November 11, 2009

    el gordo:

    this fight will split families.

    There’s always been a fraction of families with disfunctional members. Nothing new there.

  98. #98 el gordo
    November 11, 2009

    It’s a big issue, like conscription. There was also the arguments over ‘free trade’ and ‘protection’ in the 1890′s, which saw the birth of the Labor Party. This is one of those elections which could fundamentally change the political landscape.

  99. #99 Neven
    November 11, 2009

    Everyone, don’t forget to vote for DenialDepot (Best Science Blog 2009): http://2009.weblogawards.org/nominations/best-science-blog/

  100. #100 IM
    November 11, 2009

    Wait a moment. Perhaps Australian politics are that different. But did one of the residents inactivists just claim:

    a) that the two center-right opposition parties will force a election

    b) of both chambers

    c) on the issue of global warming, taking a hardline denialist approach?

    Sounds a bit inprobable.

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