Steve McIntyre, down in the quote mine

The phrase “hide the decline” from the stolen CRU emails has been taken out of context and construed to refer to a decline in temperatures this century when in fact it was a reference to a decline in tree-ring density since 1961. Steve McIntyre knows this, but instead of a correction, he offers another misrepesentation of its meaning, quote mining the stolen emails to argue that the IPCC was hiding stuff:

IPCC Lead Authors met in Arusha, Tanzania from September 1 to 3, 1999 … at which the final version of the “zero-order” draft of the Third Assessment Report was presented and discussed …

No minutes of this meeting are available, but Climategate correspondence on Sep 22-23, 1999 provides some contemporary information about the meeting.Mann noted that “everyone in the room at IPCC was in agreement that the [decline in the Briffa reconstruction] was a problem”

But Mcintyre has mislead his readers by leaving out the parts of the emails that show that his intrepretration of them is false. Deep Climate has the bits that McIntyre deliberately left out:

But even a cursory examination of the emails in question shows that the discussion was really about other aspects of the reconstruction, specifically obvious discrepancies between Briffa’s reconstruction and the other two under consideration over the major part of the reconstruction’s length. Thus, once again, McIntyre’s speculations are shown to be utterly without foundation. …

Even worse, McIntyre left out intervening sentences within the actual proffered quotes in what appears to be an unsophisticated attempt to mislead.

Seriously, any time one sees McIntyre using elipsis it’s a good idea to check it out.

Comments

  1. #1 dhogaza
    December 11, 2009

    If he’s going to copy tricks from creationists, he should learn to copy them fully and leave out the ellipsis, as it makes it so much harder to detect quote mining …

  2. #2 Tim Lambert
    December 11, 2009

    Then there’s the Brent Bozell trick of using an ellipsis to cover [28 pages of text](http://www.dailyhowler.com/dh112003.shtml).

  3. #3 ali baba
    December 11, 2009

    CA has a case of OCD for that diagram. It’s just nuts.

  4. #4 carrot eater
    December 11, 2009

    They’re OCD for anything paleoclimate, period.

  5. #5 Paul H
    December 11, 2009

    This is an egregious quote mine, imo. Not only does he quote mine individual phrases but he puts them together into a complete paragraph to basically say what he wants. That is a true sight to behold.

    I’m half seriously entertaining the idea that someone has hacked CA and created a parody blog it’s that damn awful.

  6. #6 Nick
    December 11, 2009

    So this is how McI earned the “..Mr Mc not entirely there..” tag. Oh, sorry…I mined that. Anybody mind?

  7. #7 Dan Hunt
    December 11, 2009

    Posted this at the Audit. We’ll see if it ever appears…

    Don’t know much about Science Books or the French I took, but I don’t need to to know that clipping this:

    We want the truth. Mike thinks it lies nearer his result (which seems in accord with what we know about worldwide mountain glaciers and, less clearly, suspect about solar variations). The tree ring results may still suffer from lack of multicentury time scale variance.

    out of that:

    A proxy diagram of temperature change is a clear favourite for the Policy Makers summary. But the current diagram with the tree ring only data somewhat contradicts the multiproxy curve and dilutes the message rather significantly. We want the truth. Mike thinks it lies nearer his result (which seems in accord with what we know about worldwide mountain glaciers and, less clearly, suspect about solar variations). The tree ring results may still suffer from lack of multicentury time scale variance. This is probably the most important issue to resolve in Chapter 2 at present.

    and appending the newly robbed-of-context statement to the former sans disclosure would get you thrown out of respectable company. And it would take quite the chancer indeed to lie in such a transparent and public way smack in the middle of impugning the integrity of a number of scientists not so inclined. Which certainly rules out any pangs of conscience ever having been felt in these quarters.

    There is one way I’d consider ever taking seriously any utterance of Steve McIntyre’s ever again: if he released all his climate science related emails (both that ostensibly about the science, and that with other groups keen on discrediting mainstream climate science/scientists). Being so true a friend of transparency, surely no argument could be made against such a disclosure…?

  8. #8 WotWot
    December 11, 2009

    Pretty shameless dishonesty. And they wonder why they are treated with contempt and ridicule? Totally deserved, IMHO.

  9. #9 David Kane
    December 11, 2009

    The phrase “hide the decline” from the stolen CRU emails has been taken out of context and construed to refer to a decline in temperatures this century when in fact it was a reference to a decline in tree-ring density since 1961.

    Come on Tim! Your readers are not so stupid. The only reason people care about a “decline in tree-ring density” is because “tree-ring density” is used as a proxy for temperature. So, “decline in temperatures” and “decline in tree-ring density” are scientifically identical claims.

  10. #10 Paul H
    December 11, 2009

    Umm, David, the only reason the decline is known to be a decline is that the tree ring proxies diverge from the temperature proxies. That’s why it’s called “divergence”.

    Anyway, high latitude phenomenological evidence supports the temperature record not the tree ring proxies over this time period.

    For possible causes of divergence read Briffa’s article from 1998 and 1999 discussing these boreal forest tree ring proxies. Sorry, don’t have a more specific citation handy.

  11. #11 DavidK
    December 11, 2009

    Well, there’s at least one reader that’s stupid.

  12. #12 DavidK
    December 11, 2009

    Actually, I’m sure that David Kane and the other so called ‘sceptics’ don’t understand what the “divergence problem” really means. That in itself doesn’t make them stupid, just ignorant.

    What makes them stupid is that once they’re told, or pointed in the right direction – they just close their eyes, block their ears and shout to the heavens … I can’t hear you!

  13. #13 AJStrata
    December 11, 2009

    It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the fraud by alarmists. But then again, it doesn’t hurt. Compared to exploring the universe, the alarmists are a bunch of science amateurs.

    http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/11844

  14. #14 AjStrata
    December 11, 2009

    Actually, you know it is more than just splicing raw data over statistical models. It is more than undocumented and unpredictable code. It is really just about the basics, and how not to do real science:

    http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/11824

    If anyone on the alarmist side wants to present a real error/uncertainty analysis, a professional one, they could convince me in a heart beat to support AGW.

  15. #15 jre
    December 11, 2009

    I see that it took only 24 minutes for someone to point out to David Kane that he was mistaken in saying that

    “decline in temperatures” and “decline in tree-ring density” are scientifically identical claims.

    Spectacularly mistaken, in fact, since the divergence between tree-ring density and temperature is the central issue here.
    And embarrassingly mistaken, in that he compounded his ignorance with the brassy “Come on Tim! Your readers are not so stupid.”

    Of course, in the past David Kane has shown himself to be … how shall I put this? A little thin on the basics, perhaps? Multiple similar humiliations have not quenched his ardor for a good fraud allegation, so the fact that he mixes into this one is not in itself surprising.

    But I still have to wonder — what in the world did David Kane think Tim meant by that passage?

  16. #16 Nils Ross
    December 12, 2009

    There were some denialists at the Perth Walk Against Warming talking up the CRU hack. They simply refused to acknowledge that dendrochronology could be left out of the record entirely and that you’d still see warming. Classic case of not being able to reason someone out of something they didn’t reason themselves into.

    Oh, and apparently the middle ages were warmer, there’s more ice in the Arctic than ever before, and the Urban Island effect wasn’t extensively corrected for in thermometer readings. Who knew? I guess all those journals I’ve been reading have been cutting into my denialist website reading time.

  17. #17 Stephen Berg
    December 12, 2009

    Shows how intellectually dishonest (not to mention scientifically dishonest) these “skeptics” are. How on Earth are they even taken seriously anymore?

  18. #18 IceShelf
    December 12, 2009

    Show us your and CA emails SteveM, all of them. You’ve tried to deceive once too many times and in your jealous zeal have overplayed your hand. Your little mind game is up. What little credibility you ever had has just tanked. Yet some devout MM acolytes will still try and defend your continued deception.

    You have nothing to fear/hide right SteveM? So time to fess up. If your and CA emails are clean, you may redeem some integrity. Then again, you could simply print a public retraction and apology.

    SteveM’s moles, you can relay this message to him.

  19. #19 pough
    December 12, 2009

    Come on Tim! Your readers are not so stupid. The only reason people care about a “decline in tree-ring density” is because “tree-ring density” is used as a proxy for temperature. So, “decline in temperatures” and “decline in tree-ring density” are scientifically identical claims.

    My days of not taking you seriously are definitely coming to a middle.

  20. #20 Marion Delgado
    December 12, 2009

    It’s not even close to all tree-ring data that diverges. It’s not even close to most tree ring data. This is so Creation Science 101. It’s such a close parallel to their attacks on carbon dating, I suspect that Climate Audit just goes to the Discovery Institute and does a search and replace in the Young Earth pamphlets nowadays.

    Before the era of Teabagger Science, this would have been described as simply pointing out which trees, at which altitude, had started varying from other temperature indicators, and when, and what to do about it.

  21. #21 Bernard J.
    December 12, 2009

    I read this on Steve McIntyre’s blog:

    I… am… the… real… climate… fraud.

    Similarly, I saw Anthony Watts say:

    [m]y… analysis… is… a… fraud

    It’s all there on there postings – one simply has to “read between the lines”.

  22. #22 Bernard J.
    December 12, 2009

    Erm, I had a “there” burp.

  23. #23 Donald Oats
    December 12, 2009

    Man O’ Man Tim, how do you keep up with these guys? Their collective spew-put is something fearsome to behold (although their good-put is somewhat less than machine epsilon, in units of bits per year). Since Copenhagen started, and the well-known D-graders writing in various newspapers went crazy over the CRU theft, I’ve found it way too difficult to keep up.

  24. #24 Harald Korneliussen
    December 12, 2009

    I saw on a blog, I think it was desmogblog, where he asked in a post what if our side did stuff like that. That was in response to cherry picking years (if we picked the lowest year, drew a line through it to the highest year, analogous to what many denialists do we could get “evidence” of a truly insane temperature increase.) but it might be a good idea for other distortions as well, such as the 28 page ellipsis!.

    It could even be a theme for a blog or a series of posts. I think it’s an effective putdown to those who take a faux position of neutrality and claim “denialists” on their one side and “alarmists” on the other.

    Alarmists that are denialist-level crazy hardly exist, certainly not among climate scientists.

  25. #25 Ender
    December 12, 2009

    “The only reason people care about a “decline in tree-ring density” is because “tree-ring density” is used as a proxy for temperature. So, “decline in temperatures” and “decline in tree-ring density” are scientifically identical claims.”

    So obviously David Kane and the other deniers, when they want to know what the temperature is, immediately run out and drill a hole in the nearest tree to see how hot it is. This could be a bit of a problem for apartment dwellers.

    Other people, since about 1700, have used a thermometer which is a much more accurate proxy for temperature than tree rings.

  26. #26 Ryan
    December 12, 2009

    It’s strange that in all this ‘hide the decline’ quoting no one actually quotes the source of it.


    Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,
    Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or first thing tomorrow.
    I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land
    N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.
    Thanks for the comments, Ray.

    Cheers
    Phil

    I’ve quoted too much because now if you don’t then you’re guilty of misquoting.

    There’s no ambiguity here, he’s plugging in real temperatures into other series’. By inference the others would be proxy series’ as you wouldn’t plug real into real, and importantly also, a chart was used by the IPCC at this time which showed Keith Biffa’s proxy stop at 1960.

    Note he’s says “temps”, not densities.

    Now I’ve seen further debate regarding McIntyre’s interpretation of other quotes – he may have got something wrong there, but in relation to “hide the decline” it was definitely about hiding a temperature decline (which contrasted with the real temp hence casting some doubt on the accuracy of the method)

    Believing anything else will make you look like a fool.

  27. #27 Ezzthetic
    December 12, 2009

    It should be pointed out that McIntyre has amended his post now to give the quotes in full.

  28. #28 Paul UK
    December 12, 2009

    An ellipsis trick:

    “There’s no ambiguity here…he may have got something wrong..it was definitely about…Believing…you look like a fool.”

  29. #29 Joseph
    December 12, 2009

    but in relation to “hide the decline” it was definitely about hiding a temperature decline

    It was definitely about truncating apparently poor data that is only unreliable in recent times.

    The point is that it does not refer to thermometer readings, and the public should not be mislead about this.

  30. #30 TrueSceptic
    December 12, 2009

    9 David,

    This is a strange claim, given that we all know of the “divergence problem” and we know that McIntyre does too, as he has blogged on the topic several (or many?) times.

    I fact, I’d say that McIntyre has probably done more than anyone to publicise the problem.

  31. #31 Vasilios
    December 12, 2009

    Factcheck has covered this.

  32. #32 D. C. Sessions
    December 12, 2009

    Shows how intellectually dishonest (not to mention scientifically dishonest) these “skeptics” are. How on Earth are they even taken seriously anymore?

    They’re telling people what they want to believe. The most basic principle of any con.

  33. #33 dhogaza
    December 12, 2009

    But the current diagram with the tree ring only data somewhat contradicts the multiproxy curve and dilutes the message rather significantly. We want the truth. Mike thinks it lies nearer his result (which seems in accord with what we know about worldwide mountain glaciers and, less clearly, suspect about solar variations). The tree ring results may still suffer from lack of multicentury time scale variance.

    So Briffa’s reconstruction was, in a sense, an outlier, and they were suspicious of it, and were discussing leaving it out of the report being prepared at that time.

    And later work by Briffa, if I’m understanding correctly, using his RCS analysis technique that does a better job of extracting the low-frequency signal from the data, led to later papers that showed reconstructions that fit better with non-tree ring reconstructions, and these results eventually were used?

    Is that about it or am I seriously off-track here?

    If I’m more or less right, how is this evidence of “fraud”?

  34. #34 Alexander the Good Enough
    December 12, 2009

    Eh. “If one is willing to cut and paste enough one can make a telephone directory say anything one wants it to.” I’ve used that line very effectively to shut up Jesusists when they start spouting fragmented “scripture,” a very well known and popular pastime among that bunch. It seems somehow odd that many of the climate change deniers are some of the biggest Christian believers. Go figure. Sadly, disastrously even, emotion trumps intellect nearly every time.

  35. #35 Deech56
    December 12, 2009

    RE dhogaza

    So Briffa’s reconstruction was, in a sense, an outlier, and they were suspicious of it, and were discussing leaving it out of the report being prepared at that time.

    And later work by Briffa, if I’m understanding correctly, using his RCS analysis technique that does a better job of extracting the low-frequency signal from the data, led to later papers that showed reconstructions that fit better with non-tree ring reconstructions, and these results eventually were used?

    From the e-mails, the first part is exactly right. What is interesting is that the two figures displayed by McIntyre (draft and final) have different Briffa citations (1998 vs. 2000). It would be interesting to follow the progression of Briffa’s analyses; the idea that science progresses seems to be foreign to some, but I guess it’s so much easier to still be attacking the 2001 TAR in 2009. Is this about science or undermining the credibility of the scientists?

    If I’m more or less right, how is this evidence of “fraud”?

    Hardly, but that doesn’t stop the accusations. Every re-examination of an analysis is fraud; every choice of statistical tests is fraud, every new piece of information that supersedes the old is fraud, and disagreements in interpretation among collaborators mean that there was fraud or that fraud is being planned. New rules; didn’t you get the memo?

  36. #36 Mark Francis
    December 12, 2009

    McIntyre blogged on the divergence back in 2005. It’s all a conspiracy, of course.

    Of course, McIntyre can’t use Google? Here’s an editorial I found with little effort from CO2 Science, 2004, completely and openly laying out the tree ring proxy divergence issues:

    http://www.co2science.org/articles/V7/N41/EDIT.php

    “The year of coldest growing-season temperature in Briffa et al.’s reconstruction was 1912, after which temperatures rose in zigzag fashion to about 1930, whereupon they flattened out until approximately 1945, after which they declined in zigzag fashion to somewhere in the late 1970s, where they began to fluctuate about a well-defined mean that persisted to the end of the century. At the dawning of the new millennium, therefore, Briffa et al.’s proxy temperatures were considerably below the peak warmth of the 1930s and early 40s, in striking contrast to the instrumental temperatures, which soared to new heights in the 1980s and 90s to achieve the century’s highest values, which were several tenths of a degree Centigrade greater than the temperatures derived from the 10,000 trees’ maximum latewood density data. And, of course, it was the instrumental temperatures that Mann et al. (1998, 1999) used in lieu of the proxy temperatures over the latter part of the century to arrive at what they have called the “unprecedented” warming of its last two decades.

    The dilemma we thus face is this: is it appropriate to “switch horses” part-way through the century and compare “apples and oranges,” i.e., early-century proxy temperatures with late-century instrumental temperatures, to reach the conclusion that the 20th century experienced unprecedented warming over its final two decades, as Mann et al. do? Or is it more appropriate to finish the dance with the parameter with which you began, which course leads to the conclusion that the end of the century was likely no warmer than it was in the 1930s and early 40s?”

    I read through McIntyre’s several blog posts on this issue over the years, and he never states that the data for the tree ring proxies is rejected because it divergences from the more reliable instrumental record. He makes it all appear to be illegitimate data manipulation.

    I’m all for questioning science, but this is nothing but false defamation. Whether on purpose, or just through incompetence, I leave t others to judge.

  37. #37 dhogaza
    December 12, 2009

    And later work by Briffa, if I’m understanding correctly, using his RCS analysis technique that does a better job of extracting the low-frequency signal from the data

    Briffa published on RCS as far back as 1992, and the technique predates him, so his later reconstructions improved for some other reason, apparently.

    However, the storyline’s the same – his later work supplanted his earlier work, and those reconstructions are more in line with the non-tree ring ones.

    As Deech56 says, clear evidence of fraud :)

    Every re-examination of an analysis is fraud; every choice of statistical tests is fraud, every new piece of information that supersedes the old is fraud, and disagreements in interpretation among collaborators mean that there was fraud or that fraud is being planned.

  38. #38 D. C. Sessions
    December 12, 2009

    It would be interesting to follow the progression of Briffa’s analyses; the idea that science progresses seems to be foreign to some, but I guess it’s so much easier to still be attacking the 2001 TAR in 2009. Is this about science or undermining the credibility of the scientists?

    Religious authorities become more authoritative as you go back in time and as they get closer to the Original Revelation. Since all else depends on the infallibility of that Revelation, the standard method for attacking a religious opinion is to attack the farthest-back point of divergence from your own.

    Sadly, the great majority of the world’s population thinks this way; it may be the default for our species for all I know.

    Now, consider that quite a few of the people we’re talking about do subscribe to the religious epistemology, and even those who don’t themselves know that their audience (Fox News plus our governmental Lords and Masters) do — and thus pitch their material to appeal to that.

    In that light, is it surprising that we see so many messages targeting Al Gore (as if he matters)? Is it really surprising that they lean so heavily on argumentum ad hominem?

    The fact that earlier scientific work has known problems just makes it better for them. They get the benefit of an easier target (and later work has found the weak spots for them) plus the public actually considers an attack on the “root” to discredit all further work.

  39. #39 Boris
    December 12, 2009

    “For possible causes of divergence read Briffa’s article from 1998 and 1999 discussing these boreal forest tree ring proxies. Sorry, don’t have a more specific citation handy.”

    Rob Wilson’s paper (2007 I think)is a good one.

    Possible causes of divergence:
    Man made:
    1. global dimming
    2. local pollution effects
    Natural:
    3. Snowpack decline
    4. Breakdown in temp/growth connection at higher temps.

    One thing that skeptics never get right is how limited the divergence effect is. It only occurs in boreal forests above 50N and not even in all of those. As a result of that and the fact that year to year growth rates still correlate with temperature, option 4 is unlikely. Options 2 and 3 have not been demonstrated through any correlation to my knowledge. Option one might be most plausible since global dimming has been theorized to affect plant growth the most in the arctic and subarctic.

    This is my understanding of the issue, but I read Wilson’s paper a couple years ago and I might be forgetting something or getting something wrong. The denialist argument that all proxies demonstrate divergence is simply wrong.

  40. #40 dhogaza
    December 12, 2009
  41. #41 Mercurius
    December 12, 2009

    Quote mining is fun!

    Look, the Bible actually mentions Steve McIntyre. The answers are in Genesis:

    Your…mother…fornicates with…two of every animal.

  42. #42 Lee A. Arnold
    December 12, 2009

    DeepClimate’s posting of the other parts of the email exchange appears deeply damaging to ClimateAudit’s imputation of dishonest motives to the scientists. McIntyre claims to bring “context” to the emails, but he does not. He can hardly claim to bring context, without using all the available emails.

    Reading it all, we can see the real motive, which is that the scientists think the tree-ring discrepancy (or “divergence”) is not important. Why do they think that? Because there is so much other evidence. The hockey stick still exists without using any tree ring data, at all.

    So, what did they do with one of the data-sets that diverges at one point for unexplained reasons? Well, they decided to mention these problems in a part of the IPCC report that actually begins with THIS SENTENCE: “Several important caveats must be borne in mind when using tree-ring data for palaeoclimate reconstructions.” –IPCC TAR (i.e. Third Assessment Report,) Ch 2, p. 131 (2001) And containing all the citations to the papers where the discrepancy is discussed.

    Where’s the beef?

    I think there are growing grounds for a major psychological study and big book deal for a bright young scholar: It would concern this new combination of complex science misunderstanding, self-interested policy entrepreneurism, and emotional political economics, that is arising in our times.

    The most charitable face to put on it, would be this: That basically the denialists are learning the science of climatology for free on the internet, by concocting false hypotheses that the teachers are compelled to work-out, without pay, on the public blackboard — because now, if it isn’t taught correctly, it infects the public conversation.

    But there seems to be more to it than that.

    Because the real science looks simple and clear: The decline in the Briffa construction IS a problem, and it is a WONDERFUL problem, because we still have to FIGURE IT OUT. We should be GLAD for problems, because that means we have to THINK more. Though unfortunately in this case it is thinking about TREE RINGS, and not about MUSIC or SEX.

    And it is NOT critical to the temperature record.

    Q’s.: So, without using tree rings, do we still have a temperature hockey stick, that MATCHES a CO2 hockey stick? With both of them going straight up — and much, much too fast? And for thousands of years there was nothing like the one, and for millions of years nothing like the other? And do we see a basic theory of physics that links them tightly?

    Yes yes yes yes.

    Ans.: Then give proof for another “climate forcing” right now, or else, go and learn the science at school. Sorry for yelling, but, like, you know.

  43. #43 Lee A. Arnold
    December 12, 2009

    Pardon me for hogging the electrons, but what interests me most, is something which is unlikely to interest anyone else, and that is the “methodological atomism” in the paradigm of Denialist Scientism. It spreads over the entire enterprise. It’s a sort of random atomising, where you dive into any bunch of ideas and data, and start stringing them together in the order of your own importance.

    But also look at the psychological atomism of taking email quotes out of context (“mining quotes, quote-mining”) and then building the motives outward from each atom, each sentence, until they join into a conspiracy. It’s the same epistemological pattern, a sort of roving mechanism of simple addition to build up to a “proof.”

    The U.S. has seen the same thing in public opinion about economic policy, for a long time. There is an atomistic strategy of taking certain economic indicators and stringing them into your own favorite explanation of things. In these instances, there has been less correction by real economists, and sometimes I chalk it up to the rather close analogy here of atomism with methodological individualism.

    Of course it’s been seen in both the left and the right, but in anti-climatologists it’s sometimes hooked-up with right-wing libertarianism, fantasizing about a world communist menace.

    What comes first, the bad economics or the bad climatology? Attribution study, anyone?

    Indeed even the soberer critics get the real economics wrong, about the effects of the proposed climate policy. Because no matter how you look at it, from the neoclassical accent on capital investment to spur innovation, or from new growth theory’s accent on private/public partnerships to spur innovation, there is NO downside to adjusting carbon prices (by carbon tax or cap-and-trade) to spur innovation. It is almost inconceivable that the full cost/benefits won’t be a net plus — a BIG net plus. Yet even critics like Lindzen and Dyson have fallen into the fear (though to be fair, they may be worrying about laws which start at zero-carbon — yet here again to be fair, that’s never been possible, so you have to wonder how well they’re thinking it through.)

    No real economist will go up against human creativity. Who would deny that NASA got to the moon in ten years? … Oh … wait a minute!

  44. #44 Boris
    December 12, 2009

    “Your…mother…fornicates with…two of every animal.”
    :) Tell me this is available in bumper sticker form.

  45. #45 Nils Ross
    December 12, 2009

    Good post Lee A. Arnold, but I rather imagine those opposing pricing on carbon dioxide fear that it will lead to at least a short-term drop in consumption as consumers bear the brunt of passed-on costs. Less consumption is less profit — easier to oppose the measures to begin with, then you don’t have to take any action to keep your business growing.

  46. #46 WotWot
    December 13, 2009

    This one manages to invoke pretty well every denier talking point, and in the appropriately ideological, extravagant, and inflammatory rhetorical style.

    http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/12/the_wages_of_climategate.html

  47. #48 pough
    December 13, 2009

    McIntyre claims to bring “context” to the emails, but he does not.

    Sure he does. The only issue is that the context he brings is insulting and inaccurate.

  48. #49 el gordo
    December 13, 2009

    WotWot

    Dunn thinks warming is politically dead. I don’t share his optimism.

    Did you know they found the MWP in New Zealand?

    http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/studies/l1_nzcave.php

  49. #50 Deech56
    December 13, 2009

    WotWot, thanks for messing up my morning ;-). The one thing that Dunn didn’t mention is that there is a reality out there that does not depend on what scientists write in their e-mails.

    Anyway, he made a point that working scientists that wrote in agree with him and he is happy about that fact. Well, this working scientist wrote in to disagree.

  50. #51 G.R.L. Cowan
    December 13, 2009

    Mcintyre has mislead his readers” — er, has misled them.

    (How fire can be domesticated)

  51. #52 Dano
    December 13, 2009

    Nils Ross :

    here in the States we are beginning to see reportage from the field, describing a shift in tactics as Industry fears the EPA endangerment ruling, and instead sees maintenance of profit in the Waxman-Markey ACES bill up for debate in our Senate.

    That is: straight restrictions are more damaging to profit than fiddling with numbers. So I expect Waxman-Markey to pass early 2010. Then we can have a Carbon Bubble!

    Best,

    D

  52. #53 luminous beauty
    December 13, 2009

    Burrito Gordito,

    [Here's](http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/sci;326/5957/1256?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=Global+Signatures+and+Dynamical+Origins+of+the+Little+Ice+Age+and+Medieval+Climate+Anomaly&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT) a map of temperature patterns for [the Medieval Warm Period](http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/Temperature_Pattern_MWP.gif) from which you can cherry-pick regions showing warming relative to the present to your hearts delight.

    Knock yourself out.

  53. #55 Dave Andrews
    December 13, 2009

    Wow,

    You guys do like to remain wilfully ignorant.

    Judith Curry, from Georgia State Uni and participant in the IPCC process, says clearly that

    “The defense that the emails don’t change anything in terms of the science or the IPCC report is clearly refuted by what Steve has put together here”

  54. #56 Lee
    December 13, 2009

    Andrews:

    Did yo miss the part where Tim, and many commentors here, have clearly shown that what McIntyre put together was INTENTIONALLY FALSE AND MISLEADING?!

  55. #57 MapleLeaf
    December 13, 2009

    Sad to say it, but Curry has been duped– if what Andrews says is even true. She is not the first one. CA can be very convincing unless one is willing to check the claims made there, and to some of your own homework. She seems to have been sucked into the cult that is CA.

    Have the emails changed the science? Depends what she means by that. Dr. Curry needs to elaborate. Has it changed the radiative forcing properties of GHGs? Has it changed the fact that the planet is warming? Scientists have known for decades, heck since they started that, dendro chronologies have issues. So nothing new there. And they continue to work on those issues. Dr. Curry sadly seems oblivious to coming even close to understanding what it is like to try and do science with people observing your every move and breathing down your neck, harassing you, distorting your words and facts, slandering you, having people sue you. How the hell Mann, Briffa and these guys remain sane is beyond me. The undue pressure and stress imposed on them by the likes of McIntyre is criminal, and only goes to obstruct the advancement of science.

    Can you imagine seeing your name (and associated false accusations) being blasted all over the internet day after day with a bunch of blood thirsty rabid dogs? I for one could not do it.

    I will agree with here that this is going to force scientists to have to engage the public in a whole new way, but the science will be what it is, regardless of McIntyre’s distortion and misinformation

    When asked recently what he thought about AGW, McINtyre was non committal. He said he did not know if we were facing a small, medium or big problem with AGW? Really?! You’d think that someone as omniscient as he would have a much better grasp of the problem and risks involved. But his answer was designed to confuse. Joe soap hears and thinks “Well hell, if SteveM is not sure, why the hell should we do anything”. Mission accomplished– through deceit mind you, but heck, who cares about ethics when the end goal is to win and defeat?

  56. #58 dhogaza
    December 13, 2009

    Did yo miss the part where Tim, and many commentors here, have clearly shown that what McIntyre put together was INTENTIONALLY FALSE AND MISLEADING?!

    Deep Climate has probably the best fisking so far. And he’s following up with another post on it soon.

    I think Curry’s got a crush on McIntyre …

  57. #59 dhogaza
    December 13, 2009

    Dr. Curry sadly seems oblivious to coming even close to understanding what it is like to try and do science with people observing your every move and breathing down your neck, harassing you, distorting your words and facts, slandering you, having people sue you.

    And making death threats …

  58. #60 Deech56
    December 13, 2009

    Ummm….

    Friends, go to American Thinker (h/t to WotWot). I had 3 very polite comments pointing out the error of their ways, including some links to scientific papers showing the evidence behind AGW. They deleted me! Here’s the text of the e-mail I received:

    Dear deech56, we have revoked your American Thinker registration because you have shown in your first three submissions today, December 13, 2009, that your intent to participate in the AT reader forum is not in the spirit of this web publication, a community for thoughtful discussion.

    It’s funny because there are a number of people replying to me. I better wait for the trucks taking me to the gulag. Hey, does anyone know how I can recover my posts?

  59. #61 Nick
    December 13, 2009

    Dave Andrews @# 55,I have sympathy for Dr Curry’s desire to build/re-build bridges,but sadly ,so soon after her gestures,she has been betrayed by the compulsive behavior of those she’d like to help. It is clear that McI’s treatment of the email content is skewed.

  60. #62 Deech56
    December 13, 2009

    Oh wait, I just remembered that in response to a post that contained this nugget:

    Here’s a wonderful dialogue between Lord Monckton and a Greenpeace demonstrator…

    I posted the YouTube video in which Monckton called the young activists Hitler youth. Now if they had just pulled that one post, I would have understood – maybe.

  61. #63 luminous beauty
    December 13, 2009

    Ducky posts what he purports to be a direct quote attributed to Judith Curry:

    >["The defense that the emails don't change anything in terms of the science or the IPCC report is clearly refuted by what Steve has put together here"](http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=UFc&q=judith+curry+%22The+defense+that+the+emails+don%27t+change+anything+in+terms+of+the+science+or+the+IPCC+report+is+clearly+refuted+by+what+Steve+has+put+together+here%22&btnG=Search&aq=o&oq=&aqi=)

    Reference, Ducky?

    What she has [said:](http://camirror.wordpress.com/2009/11/22/curry-on-the-credibility-of-climate-research/)

    >While the blogosphere has identified many emails that allegedly indicate malfeasance, clarifications especially from Gavin Schmidt have been very helpful in providing explanations and the appropriate context for these emails. However, even if the hacked emails from HADCRU end up to be much ado about nothing in the context of any actual misfeasance that impacts the climate data records, the damage to the public credibility of climate research is likely to be significant.

    The difference being that between ‘public credibility’ and ‘science’ in your apparently manufactured quote.

    She further clarifies in [comments:](http://camirror.wordpress.com/2009/11/22/curry-on-the-credibility-of-climate-research/#comment-577)

    >There is nothing in the emails that directly discredits these datasets and findings…

    Much less the IPCC.

    Prove your not a lying sack of pig excrement, Ducky.

    P.S. In skimming that comment thread I’ve decided Judith Curry has the hide of a walrus and certainly deserves a Mother of the Year Award.

    As for myself, my tolerance for [Teh Stupid](http://www.plognark.com/Art/Sketches/Blogsketches/2008/thestupiditburns.jpg) has been exhausted. Expect excessively colorful language directed at the next troll…

  62. #64 frankis
    December 13, 2009

    So the bold-font direct quote purportedly of Dr Curry at #55 is in reality a lie by Dave Andrews?

  63. #65 Michael
    December 13, 2009

    C’mon, give him a break.

    You can be sure it wasn’t Dave’s lie – he just repeated someone else’s.

  64. #66 Janet Akerman
    December 13, 2009

    luminous beauty knows David Andrews well enough to not take anything he presents at face value without first verifying it.

    He hasn’t earned the title “Dirty Dave Andrews” for nothing.

    Until I see that quote in context I’d suspend judgement.

  65. #67 Janet Akerman
    December 13, 2009

    Deech56,

    American Thinker must be an oxymoron in their case. They even [publish Mr O](http://www.americanthinker.com/girma_j_orssengo/) to advance “American Thinking”.

  66. #68 luminous beauty
    December 13, 2009

    In Ducky’s defence I have tracked down the [quote](http://climateaudit.org/2009/12/10/ipcc-and-the-trick/#comment-208573) and it is from Judith Curry.

    Nonetheless, Ducky omits a fair bit of context. To wit:

    >Is this scientific fraudulence as some people in this thread have suggested, or is something more complex going on here? In the assessment process, scientists infer pressure from policy makers to reduce the uncertainty.

    And so on. Judith proceeds to climb on her personal hobbyhorse…

  67. #69 Mark
    December 13, 2009

    Dave Andrews writes:

    >Judith Curry, from Georgia State Uni and participant in the IPCC process, says clearly that

    >>**”The defense that the emails don’t change anything in terms of the science or the IPCC report is clearly refuted by what Steve has put together here”**

    Dave, what is Curry refering too? If you wanted to release us from our “wilful” ignorance, how about presenting what ever it was that Steve “put together” that Curry was refering to?

    And if it is as meaty as you infere, why not smack us with it, rather than relying on your selection of a Curry quote?

  68. #70 Janet Akerman
    December 13, 2009

    Thanks LB,

    Goes to show that even Curry can be lead by insertion of strategic ellipsis and misleading quote mining.

  69. #71 Janet Akerman
    December 13, 2009

    In case anyone missed it,

    Dave Andrews believes people are wilfully ignorant if they checkout the orignal quotes, and discover the [misrepresentation made](http://deepclimate.org/2009/12/11/mcintyre-provides-fodder-for-skeptics/).

    Where as Curry has been relieved of “wilful ignorance” and been enlightened by reading McI, and taking what he presents at face value.

  70. #72 frankis
    December 13, 2009

    OK tnx. I don’t read Dave’s stuff (and doubted I was missing much), but a straight out lie rather than mere decontextualisation or peddling of nonsense sounded like the setting of a new low. That caught my attention!

  71. #73 Vasilios
    December 13, 2009

    Apparently, the days where scientific misconduct was assessed by scientific groups in impartial investigations is no longer applicable – it’s now McIntyre and his raging mob that decide fraud!

  72. #74 el gordo
    December 13, 2009

    luminous

    I was under your spell until I reached the point where the earth became a hell. That looks a bit dodgy, everyone knows (including Tim Flummery) that the world has been cooling for the past decade.

    Sorry, I’ll have to fail you. Falsus in unum, falsus in omis.

  73. #75 Pterosaur
    December 13, 2009

    “everyone knows (including Tim Flummery) that the world has been cooling for the past decade.”

    Evidence ?

  74. #76 Vince Whirlwind
    December 13, 2009

    El Gordo’s a silly troll.

  75. #77 Lee
    December 13, 2009

    elgordo, its bad enough when you simply use bad logic applied to poor scholarship to reach your absurd opinions, but please don’t resort to also using statements that are simply false. The world is NOT cooling over the last decade – not in any of the analyses.

  76. #78 Janet Akerman
    December 13, 2009

    Pterosaur has called you out el gordo. It’s your big chance to slap down your doubters;

    >”everyone knows (including Tim Flummery) that the world has been cooling for the past decade.”

    el gordo’s statements have an often odd relationship with [the evidence](http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1999/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1999/trend/plot/uah/from:1999/trend/plot/rss/from:1999/trend).

  77. #79 MapleLeaf
    December 14, 2009

    Like I said, “Sad to say it, but Curry has been duped– if what Andrews says is even true”.

    Bets way to deal with el gordo, ignore them. If our toddlers are not behaving well, one of the most effective ways to discourage and prevent bad behaviour is to simply ignore said bad behaviour. They figured it out really fast that they were not going to get attention though bad behaviour, and the bad behaviour stops.

    If toddlers can quickly figure it out one would hope that el gordo could figure it out.

  78. #80 WotWot
    December 14, 2009

    So, Dave Andrews is a liar?

    I’m shocked, I tell you, truly shocked.

    Here is your chance to prove otherwise, Dave. Give us a link to the original source for that quote.

  79. #81 el gordo
    December 14, 2009

    Thanks for nothing lads, you’ve just frightened Ms Beauty away. I agree with MapleLeaf, just ignore me.

  80. #82 Lee
    December 14, 2009

    So – gordo ISN’T going to defend his statement.
    Boy am I surprised.

  81. #83 Bernard J.
    December 14, 2009

    [Dhogaza](http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/12/steve_mcintyre_down_in_the_quo.php#comment-2142641).

    DC’s fisking is nice, isn’t it?

    Some of the drive-by ignorants commenting there obviously wish that it were otherwise, but any rational being would acknowledge the utter mendacity of the Denialati’s use of Steve McIntyre’s trick, of subtracting excerpts and adding ellipses to each email from the last ten years or more, to hide the truth.

  82. #84 Deep Climate
    December 14, 2009

    dhogaza said:

    Deep Climate has probably the best fisking so far. And he’s following up with another post on it soon.

    Well, not quite – I updated the original post to show the Briffa et al series from Science 1999, which looks very much like the final series in TAR (warmer than Jones, and terminating in 1960), and already had the processing to retain “low frequency”. More inconvenient evidence against the McIntyre/Daily Mail twaddle that Briffa “changed” in accordance to pressure.

    The context to keep in mind (there’s that word again) is that the original 1998 Nature article was about volcano/temperature relationship, where interannual variations are the main focus. Obviously, a recon that did not capture low frequency variation would be of little use to shed light on the multi-decadal or centennial trends of interest.

    McIntyre’s gone back and filled in the missing sentences. Now the post makes even less sense, since he keeps talking about the “decline” where the emails are clearly talking about other aspects.

  83. #85 Chris O'Neill
    December 14, 2009

    everyone knows (including Tim Flummery) that the world has been cooling for the past decade.

    el gordo follows the Nazi advice, if you repeat a big enough lie enough times then people start believing it.

  84. #86 el gordo
    December 14, 2009

    It was just a slip of the tongue when he said ‘the computer modeling and the real world data disagree.’

  85. #87 Dave
    December 14, 2009

    > everyone knows (including Tim Flummery) that the world has been cooling for the past decade

    Get it right, Gordo. You can’t say “decade” because that excludes 1998. Oh, and you have to cherry-pick the HadCRU dataset and ignore everything else.

    Wait… HadCRU? When all those “rational” commentators have been so utterly horrified by the CRU emails that they no longer trust anything that’s remotely associated with the CRU?

    When they’ve finished sharpening their pitchforks, they might just spot that they’ve stabbed themselves in the foot, what with having to rely on the GISS data and its 1998-beating 2005.

  86. #88 Marco
    December 14, 2009

    @Dave:
    Some in the deniosphere believe they already demolished GISTEMP. That leaves NCDC (but their reconstruction is hardly ever used), RSS, and UAH.

    Expect RSS to be the next victim.

  87. #89 TrueSceptic
    December 14, 2009

    58 dhogaza,

    Y’know, I’ve wondered about that. Didn’t she invite McIntyre to speak at a conference a couple of years ago to try and “bridge the gap” between the scientists and the “sceptics”?

  88. #90 TrueSceptic
    December 14, 2009

    63 lumminous,

    “even if the hacked emails from HADCRU…”?

    How strange. HADCRU is the name used for the jointly produced datasets. The emails were hacked from CRU. There are no “HADCRU” emails. Surely she knows this?

  89. #91 TrueSceptic
    December 14, 2009

    67 Janet,

    And to think that he learnt how to use WoodForTrees here. :-(

  90. #92 dhogaza
    December 14, 2009

    Y’know, I’ve wondered about that. Didn’t she invite McIntyre to speak at a conference a couple of years ago to try and “bridge the gap” between the scientists and the “sceptics”?

    Something like that, I think. Invited him to speak at her university, IIRC. To her department, or to her and her grad students, I don’t remember the exact details.

  91. #93 Dan Hunt
    December 14, 2009

    This were my comments at the Audit:

    *** Don’t know much about Science Books or the French I took, but I don’t need to to know that clipping this:

    We want the truth. Mike thinks it lies nearer his result (which seems in accord with what we know about worldwide mountain glaciers and, less clearly, suspect about solar variations). The tree ring results may still suffer from lack of multicentury time scale variance.

    out of that:

    A proxy diagram of temperature change is a clear favourite for the Policy Makers summary. But the current diagram with the tree ring only data somewhat contradicts the multiproxy curve and dilutes the message rather significantly. We want the truth. Mike thinks it lies nearer his result (which seems in accord with what we know about worldwide mountain glaciers and, less clearly, suspect about solar variations). The tree ring results may still suffer from lack of multicentury time scale variance. This is probably the most important issue to resolve in Chapter 2 at present.

    and appending the newly robbed-of-context statement to the former sans disclosure would get you thrown out of respectable company. And it would take quite the chancer indeed to lie in such a transparent and public way smack in the middle of impugning the integrity of a number of scientists not so inclined. Which certainly rules out any pangs of conscience ever having been felt in these quarters. There is one way I’d consider ever taking seriously any utterance of Steve McIntyre’s ever again: if he released all his climate science related emails (both that ostensibly about the science, and that with other groups keen on discrediting mainstream climate science/scientists). Being so true a friend of transparency, surely no argument could be made against such a disclosure…?

    Morgan responded: Why would the inclusion of a statement that amounts to “we want the truth, but don’t know what it is” materially change things? There was pressure not to dilute “the message”, despite the fact that there was (and is) uncertainty regarding its truth.

    I responded: Because the modifier of “most important issue” for Chapter 2 is not “the message” but the scientific matter at issue, which is lost by this edit. This alone calls into serious question McIntyre’s interpretation and yours. Is it really the case that there was pressure not to ‘dilute the message’ by which you infer unscientific political pressure? You have no evidence whatsoever for that assertion fyi, other than your own manifest prejudices. All graphics have messages. This is why they exist- to communicate in pictures what can less effectively be communicated otherwise. I read this excerpt and exchange as saying that the graphic was ineffective at communicating the message of the underlying work due to differences in what the underlying proxies were measuring. Really, if there’s evidence of perfidy here, Steve has done a good job concealing it.

    Quite frankly, if it didn’t change anything, why were these three sentences excerpted in the first place? Was it to save column inches in an already lengthy blog post, or was it to keep from “diluting the message”? And that’s the really irritating things about all this. I read this and was (provisionally) persuaded that others were deceitful by the very tactics they were being accused of. That quite cheeses me off. You can speak for yourself, but I personally don’t like being duped.

    In any case, my request of Steve to release all his private correspondence relevant to this clearly critical issue for humanity stands. He has asked plenty of those he criticizes. He has hardly shown any compunction about diving into other scientists private correspondence, and maligning them on the basis of it, not least on the lengthiest of interpretive stretches. Certainly, unless you can think of and state any clear reason why it should be otherwise, you will join me in petitioning him to do the right thing here. As he clearly believes, this issue is too important to ask anything less. ***

    ——-

    Two things on this issue. First, I think there should be a high profile push on any skeptics wishing to make a big deal out of these emails for their own climate science related emails. Transparency needs to be more properly defined as transparency on the part of anyone with access to a microphone.

    Secondly, Judy Curry needs to be publicly asked whether she indeed meant to comment approvingly under a post in which Steve McIntyre said, amongst other unsubstantiated sleaze, this, “By the following day, matters seem to have settled down, with Briffa apologizing to Mann for his temporary pangs of conscience.”

  92. #94 MKE Dolenz
    December 14, 2009

    McIntyre disagreed with how he is portrayed. “Everything that I’ve done in this, I’ve done in good faith,” he said.

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gRa5F7Lv_zO0ZKaHmbQENlyV3KdgD9CHUS980

  93. #95 ali baba
    December 14, 2009

    Secondly, Judy Curry needs to be publicly asked whether she indeed meant to comment approvingly under a post in which Steve McIntyre said, amongst other unsubstantiated sleaze, this, “By the following day, matters seem to have settled down, with Briffa apologizing to Mann for his temporary pangs of conscience.

    This part of your comment doesn’t appear in the thread.

  94. #96 MarkB
    December 14, 2009

    Just yesterday I read an AP article that quoted McIntyre:

    “McIntyre disagreed with how he is portrayed. “Everything that I’ve done in this, I’ve done in good faith,” he said.

    He also said he has avoided editorializing on the leaked e-mails. “Anything I say,” he said, “is liable to be piling on.””

    [Article](http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gRa5F7Lv_zO0ZKaHmbQENlyV3KdgD9CHUS980)

    Avoided editorializing? He must think people are stupid.

    Regarding the tree-ring divergence problem, here’s a good description (a must-read for McIntyre’s choir):

    [divergence problem](http://www.skepticalscience.com/Hockey-stick-divergence-problem.html)

  95. #97 MarkB
    December 14, 2009

    Regarding Dr. Curry, she recently had a guest post on ClimateProgress. In response to some comments she says she distinguishes between deniers and skeptics, putting McIntyre in the skeptics camp and reserving “deniers” for those associated with advocacy organizations like the Competitive Enterprise Institute. Anyone doing “analysis” (the blogosphere qualifies) automatically exempts one from the “denier” term.

    I suppose my requirements are more stringent. Anyone can pretend to do analysis or do knowingly shoddy analysis. McIntyre’s behavior (insinuating fraud, dishonestly cherry-picking quotes as clearly indicated in DeepClimate’s post, hyping the smallest and most insignificant of errors, etc.) does him no favors. Also, I did not get a response from Dr. Curry when I pointed out that McIntyre is clearly associated with the Heartland Institute, an advocacy organization.

    See post #9 and my response in #26.

    [CP](http://climateprogress.org/2009/11/27/%C2%AD-climategate-judith-curry-open-letter-to-graduate-students-young-scientists-climate-research-hacked-cru-emails/)

  96. #98 MapleLeaf
    December 14, 2009

    MarkB “McIntyre is clearly associated with the Heartland Institute”

    Mark, McIntyre repeatedly claims to be clean. This is the first time someone has stated this in public (to my knowledge). Can you give us some more concrete? This could be huge!

  97. #99 Bud
    December 14, 2009

    All I got from Sourcewatch is that McIntyre spoke at the Heartland Institute “climate conference”. I’m not sure accepting an invitation to speak on someone else’s platform qualifies as an “association”.

    If McIntyre had any formal links with any rightwing thinktanks or special interests, someone would almost certainly have found them by now. That said, his “cleanliness” would not excuse the many times he has engaged in dogwhistle fraud allegations and mudslinging.

  98. #100 MapleLeaf
    December 14, 2009

    Thanks Bud. I know McKitrick has ties to the neocon “think” tank Fraser Institute.

    What I want to know is why the media (especially in Canada) are fawning over McIntyre right now. I smell a rat. Someone is feeding the media these stories (CanWest in particular), and/or the journalists have been told to post stories. Seems said journalists have not done their homework, or have and a) Turned a blind eye to the obvious transgressions at CA, or b) Have been told to turn a blind eye and only report what they want people to think about CA.

    Something fishy is going on.