Posted by Tim Lambert on January 14, 2010 Possum Comitatus has noticed a very interesting change in Roy Spencer’s presentation of his satelite temperature data.
This is the November version:
And this is the December version:
Spot the difference!
Update: Gavin reminds me that in April Spencer was using a ridiculous degree 4 fit to the data:
If he’d stuck with that, the current graph would look like this:
The polynomial is still decreasing at the end, but the divergence from the data is striking.
Doesn’t that Sept 2010 figure now take his current 13-month moving average to above the 1998 13-month moving average?
Time for a new average? Something on the order of 60 months might bring it back down to a more acceptable level, don’t you think?
Yes, the Sep 2010 figure sets a record high for the 13 month moving average. The 25 month one is even worse for Spencer now – it reached a record high in July which was broken in August and again in September.
Just looking at [Spencer's site](http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/02/uah-update-for-january-2011-global-temperatures-in-freefall/) – has he just changed the baseline too?
Yes. He’s now using a 30 year baseline.
October 7, 2010
October 7, 2010
February 4, 2011