Roy Spencer hides the increase

Possum Comitatus has noticed a very interesting change in Roy Spencer’s presentation of his satelite temperature data.

This is the November version:

i-b056b33caf64ebc19d679130f4dda674-UAH_LT_1979_thru_Nov_09.png

And this is the December version:

i-89f1e575b2a93d355c9302a35693ba2e-UAH_LT_1979_thru_Dec_09.png

Spot the difference!

Update: Gavin reminds me that in April Spencer was using a ridiculous degree 4 fit to the data:

i-5b9616143eedcdce1cfb290839a445e5-uah_lt_since_19792.png

If he’d stuck with that, the current graph would look like this:

i-ac82ab6c9759c4bf75c3810b965ea586-UAH_LT_1979_thru_Dec_09quartic.png

The polynomial is still decreasing at the end, but the divergence from the data is striking.

Comments

  1. #1 P. Lewis
    October 7, 2010

    Doesn’t that Sept 2010 figure now take his current 13-month moving average to above the 1998 13-month moving average?

    Time for a new average? Something on the order of 60 months might bring it back down to a more acceptable level, don’t you think?

  2. #2 Tim Lambert
    October 7, 2010

    Yes, the Sep 2010 figure sets a record high for the 13 month moving average. The 25 month one is even worse for Spencer now – it reached a record high in July which was broken in August and again in September.

  3. #3 Shinsko
    February 4, 2011

    Just looking at [Spencer’s site](http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/02/uah-update-for-january-2011-global-temperatures-in-freefall/) – has he just changed the baseline too?

  4. #4 Tim Lambert
    February 4, 2011

    Yes. He’s now using a 30 year baseline.

Current ye@r *