Mike Steketee bucks the groupthink at The Australian with an article on why it is necessary to adapt to the coming global warming. Christopher Monckton responds with a Gish gallop of 24 points where he alleges Steketee got it wrong. Steketee’s response is devasting: again and again and again he shows that Monckton misrepresented what Steketee wrote. Even Andrew “confirmation bias” Bolt, after at first being convinced that Monckton had shown Steketee to be wrong, was compelled to concede that Monckton had verballed Steketee. Though I’m sure Bolt will believe with all his heart and all his soul the next silly claim that Monckton makes.
Let me pick up on one of Monckton’s claims. I picked this one because I thought that Monckton had scored a point and I was writing something to that effect when I want back and checked what Steketee had written and discovered that Monckton had misrepresented him again. Monckton claims that Steketee stated:
- EVEN IF GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS WERE TO STABILIZE AT LITTLE MORE THAN TODAY’S LEVELS, 2 CÂ° OF FURTHER WARMING WILL OCCUR – FOUR TIMES THE INCREASE OVER THE PAST 30 YEARS.
Monckton then proceeds to calculate the equilibrium warming if CO2 was kept at current levels of 390 ppm. His calculations are a bit off, but it is generally agreed that there is about 0.5 of a degree of warming in the pipeline even if CO2 levels don’t increase any more.
I thought Monckton had a point here, but look at what Steketee actually wrote:
Even if the world achieved what so far has proved beyond it – a mechanism to stabilise greenhouse emissions at 450 parts per million of CO2 – global temperatures still will rise by an estimated 2C; that is, four times the increase that has occurred in the past 30 years.
Steketee specifically said 450 ppm. There is simply no excuse for Monckton to pretend that Steketee said 390 ppm. If climate sensitivity is 3 degrees for a doubling of CO2 (the IPCC’s best estimate), then stablising at 450 ppm will result in 3*log2(450/280) = 2 degrees C, just as Steketee said.