Andrew Bolt is desperate to prove that the floods in Queensland had nothing to do with global warming, even though the science suggests that warming will make floods worse. So has fully embraced an argument advanced by hauntingthelibrary:
If warming caused these floods, why didn’t warmists predict them?
Two years ago Queensland’s warmist Office of Climate Change issued this report on what the state should expect from global warming, and not once did it mention floods. It did predict a slight increase in “extreme” weather events in the north, but not in the south of the state where the worst floods have occurred. Elsewhere it has warned of a slight increase in rainfall during extreme events, but overall it predicted less rain, and not these months of more.
Report: “drought” mentioned 24 times…
Report: “flood” mentioned zero times.
Someone less gullible than Bolt might have noticed that the report he links to seems to start on page 21. Someone less gullible than Bolt might have noticed that it was actually just chapter 4 of a longer report.
Someone less gullible than Bolt might have checked the website of the Queensland Office of Climate Change. Right on the front page you find:
On 10 November, the Queensland Government released a new report that will help local governments plan for increased risk of flooding from extreme events due to climate change. read more Â»
The plan states:
This study provides Queensland local governments with a climate change factor for increased rainfall intensity for incorporation into flood studies. It proposes a 5 per cent increase in rainfall intensity per degree of global warming. …
Using this climate change factor, the Inland Flooding Study developed recommended policy options to incorporate climate change into the flood risk management framework for Gayndah. These options are included in a draft flood constraint code for assessing development applications, which defines four flood hazard areas linked to the 1 per cent (Q100), 0.5 per cent (Q200) and 0.2 per cent (Q500) AEP flood levels. [Q100 means “floods once every hundred years”.] …
This approach is based on the current 0.5 per cent AEP (Q200) approximating the 1 per cent AEP (Q100) level by 2050 and the current 0.2 per cent AEP (Q500) approximating the 1 per cent AEP (Q100) level by 2100.
That is, by 2100 “once every 500 years floods” will happen every 100 years and we need to plan for this. Gayndah, by the way, experienced its worst flood in 50 years the month after the report was published.
Directly after the item about the report on flood risk there’s this:
On 28 October, the Queensland Government released a new report highlighting the latest climate change science and the likely impacts of climate change on Queensland. read more Â»
“flood” appears 125 times in that report, for example:
Climate change is also likely to affect extreme
rainfall in south-east Queensland (Abbs et al.
2007). Projections indicate an increase in two-hour,
24-hour and 72-hour extreme rainfall events for
large areas of south-east Queensland, especially
in the McPherson and Great Dividing ranges, west
of Brisbane and the Gold Coast. For example, Abbs
et al. (2007) found that under the A2 emissions
scenario, extreme rainfall intensity averaged over
the Gold Coast sub-region is projected to increase
by 48 per cent for a two-hour event, 16 per cent for
a 24-hour event and 14 per cent for a 72-hour event
by 2070. Therefore despite a projected decrease in
rainfall across most of Queensland, the projected
increase in rainfall intensity could result in more
So what about the report that Bolt linked to? Well that was just chapter 4 of their climate strategy report, which has stuff like:
There is also predicted to be increased flooding … The IPCC has assessed south-east Queensland as being a key ‘hot spot’ for climate vulnerability by 2050, with risks of losses to the built environment from flooding, sea-level rises and storm surges (IPCC, 2007a).
But kudos to hauntingthelibrary for finding a chapter in that report that doesn’t have the word “flood” in it. No kudos for fooling Andrew Bolt — that’s like taking candy from a baby.