Heed the bureau. John Quiggin in The Australian Financial Review yesterday:
Tragically, while only a few people have been silly enough to ignore the Bureau [of Meteorology]’s warnings about this cyclone, a great many have ignored equally dire warnings about the long-term impact of climate change, including more extreme weather events. Climate models that have predicted the warming of the past two or three decades are dismissed as spurious. Worse still, the bureau and other bodies have been accused of faking or fudging data to promote their case for motives that range from the venal (more funding for climate research) to the sinister (obscure plots for global domination).
Since [the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001 report] there has been a growing number of studies that indicate a consistent signal of fewer tropical cyclones globally in a warmer climate.
Look! How clever! The BOM contradicts Quiggin! Except, of course, that if you read their site, they don’t. Look:
There have been three recent studies producing projections for tropical cyclone changes in the Australian region. Two suggest that there will be no significant change in tropical cyclone numbers off the east coast of Australia to the middle of the 21st century. The third study, based on the CSIRO simulations, shows a significant decrease in tropical cyclone numbers for the Australian region especially off the coastline of Western Australia. The simulations also show more long-lived eastern Australian tropical cyclones although one study showed a decrease in long-lived cyclones off the Western Australian coast.
Each of the above studies finds a marked increase in the severe Category 3 – 5 storms. Some also reported a poleward extension of tropical cyclone tracks.
So there might be a decrease in overall numbers, but there is likely to be an increase in the severe storms. The ones like Yasi. Funny how Cut and Paste didn’t paste in any of that.
Cut and Paste continues with this:
Changing climate? Ross Garnaut at the National Press Club Address, July 4, 2008:
The draft report has a rather prosaic title, Draft Report. It almost had an exciting title. When our team in Melbourne finished the draft of the draft a few weeks ago, we held a naming competition and the winner by acclamation was No Pain, No Rain. But we are a conscientious lot; someone said, No Pain, Greatly Reduced Rain and someone else: No Pain, Probably Greatly Reduced Rain.
Or changing forecast? Garnaut yesterday:
The odds seem to favour the proposition that cyclonic events will be more intense in a hotter world.
Ha ha! Gotcha! Garnaut changed his forecast! Except that if you read Chapter 4 of the 2008 report you find this:
Tropical cyclones are likely to increase in intensity and to generate greater
precipitation in their vicinity.
Little wonder that the person responsible for this dishonest quoting hides behind a cloak of anonymity.