Barry Bickmore’s three part review of Roy Spencer’s Great Global Warming Blunder is well worth a read. In Part 1 he examines Spencer’s model that supposedly shows that climate sensitivity is low. In Part 2 he looks at Spencer’s claim that climate scientists ignore natural sourcs of climate variation. And Part 3 takes apaprt Spencer’s claim that his climate model, which has four fitted parameters, shows that the PDO and not an increase in greenhouse gasses is the major cause of climate change since 1900.
I’m reminded of the quote from John von Neumann:
With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk.
Update: Arthur Smith analyzes Spencer’s model.
Update 2: Arthur Smith does some more analysis. Spencer’s model is out by six trillion degrees if you hindcast it to 993 AD.