September 2012 Open Thread

Time for more thread.

Comments

  1. #1 Lionel A
    September 15, 2012

    And Wow, you are creating a stain on good manners and sensible debate.

    Now I know why your moniker is Wow, because sooner or later those engaging with you think, ‘Wow what a xxxx….’. Fill in with an expletive of choice.

  2. #2 Lionel A
    September 15, 2012

    I was going to add to my last with the observation that the way you derail threads is sad and here is another once informative and useful thread that you have sent off into the weeds. Now that is very sad.

  3. #3 el gordo
    September 15, 2012

    ‘here is another once informative and useful thread’

    I have noticed the sceptics are unhappy about the ice loss in the north, but at least they can claim Antarctica is still intact.

    It’s probably the ‘saw tooth’ effect.

  4. #4 Wow
    September 15, 2012

    OK, where have you been Lionel?

    Your fake outrage and pissant attitude are, really, quite false when you talk on here with the evidence seen.

    When you stop hyperventilating, get back to me.

  5. #5 Wow
    September 15, 2012

    PS histrionics doesn’t suit you.

  6. #6 bill
    September 16, 2012

    I very much doubt Lionel’s outrage is ‘faked’. Mine certainly isn’t. You might also notice the other negative reviews you’re garnering; but, by all means, carry on and learn nothing from the reactions of your peers.

    Tim, I’m sorry it has come to this.

  7. #7 el gordo
    September 16, 2012

    Can we at least agree that gorebull worming has stopped and its a travesty.

  8. #8 Vince Whirlwind
    September 16, 2012

    El Gordo, I think we’re all agreed that such statements are the work of cranks.

  9. #9 el gordo
    September 16, 2012

    Hi Vince, its been awhile.

  10. #10 bill
    September 16, 2012

    ‘gorebull worming has stopped and its a travesty.’ And this guy isn’t a Poe?

  11. #11 Lotharsson
    September 16, 2012

    Now, either you wanted pixel perfect positioning or you’re using it as a web bug.

    I am sure you are smart enough to work out where the fallacy in that claim lies.

    But due to other factors, I am not at all convinced that you will.

    You’re repeatedly jumping to emphatic conclusions and failing to take on board even gentle hints that (a) you may have missed something that undermines the certainty of your conclusions, and that (b) your interaction style demotivates anyone predisposed to help.

    As I have better things to do I consider that I have contributed enough to this line of discussion.

  12. #12 el gordo
    September 16, 2012

    Poe’s Law Rules

    I demand smiley faces…

  13. #13 Wow
    September 16, 2012

    Well when lional whines about how I dragged yet another thread into the weeds on **DELTOID** where Duff KMS and GSW appear regularly indicates that there’s something other than my lack of grace at the dispticks who ruined web development for the disabled for nearly a human generation involved.

    I reckon GSW et al all make such ludicrous statements that they don’t really latch on, but there is more than a grain of truth to what I said and that hurts.

  14. #14 Wow
    September 16, 2012

    “I am sure you are smart enough to work out where the fallacy in that claim lies.”

    I’m sure that if there was one that was defensible you are smart enough to realise that putting it down in writing would be of much more use than alluding to some unsaid property.

    Then again, I’m sure there isn’t.

  15. #15 Lionel A
    September 16, 2012

    OK, where have you been Lionel?

    Your fake outrage and pissant attitude are, really, quite false when you talk on here with the evidence seen.

    When you stop hyperventilating, get back to me.

    Wow, you seem to be taking lessons from the Anthony Watts textbook on how to bully and intimidate. But with me you fail as I have experienced far worse in reality and dealt with it and thus your comments do nothing more than expose your own insecurities.

    As for histrionics – the evidence here is clear a classic case of projection once again from the denier play-book. It is you who appears to be in auto-rotate and having lost your tail rotor at that.

    Now this is quite enough on this sorry theme.

  16. #16 Vince Whirlwind
    September 16, 2012

    Wow’s a bit liked that.

    I tend to come on here to admire the elegant expert refutations of denier-bullshit by the likes of Jeff Harvey and so on.

    I’m not so sure reams of emotionalising about 1990′s web development is doing much for me. If that’s what it’s about. Hard to tell really. Pretty sure I’m drinking my red slower than Wow2′s been drinking his.

    ANyway, El GOrdo, where have you been?
    And why are you suddenly sounding like you’re making fun of your previous convictions?
    Are we witnessing a U-Turn here?

  17. #17 el gordo
    September 16, 2012

    These days I hang out at The Daily Trash (we laff a lot) and I also spend time at Cafe Whispers.

    They are essentially left wing blogs, but Trash is more open to different views.

    Coming here was a shock…only a month ago Deltoid was robust and amusing.

  18. #18 Lionel A
    September 16, 2012

    I also savour the enlightening comments from Jeff Harvey and thank him for his input.

    I will most definitely not be responding to any more of Wow’s rants so that Deltoid can preserve its good reputation amongst all those interested in truth and countering the lies and distortions from ‘the usual suspects’.

  19. #19 Wow
    September 16, 2012

    I note that you still couldn’t manage to find the fallacy in that statement, Vinny.

    Is it possible you were incorrect, or that the only gaps required special pleading?

  20. #20 Wow
    September 16, 2012

    When BPW turned up here and went all “oh, why don’t you all come up with some reasonable and sensible ideas rather than swear and be childish”, the wave of “TONE TROLL ALERT!” responses abounded.

    Yet many of those doing so then are doing a BPW now.

    Me? I’m not a hypocrite. I accorded BPW had cause to note swearing but that this wasn’t reason to discard the discussion.

    But here you are, doing a BPW and insisting that there is never anything being said by someone who uses robust language.

    Tone troll alert indeed…

  21. #21 John
    September 16, 2012

    The weirdest thing just happened.

    Seventeen hours ago Steve McIntyre posted a blog article entitled “Lewandowsky’s Pogrom”.

    In the hours since the article and URL have been renamed (to “Lewandowsky’s Cleansing Program”). Surely McIntyre couldn’t be comparing the actions of Dr. Lewandowsky to a murderous regime?

    No, of course he is.

    Apparently the use of the word “pogrom” is a-ok because we use “denier”, a word which in the context we use it in has nothing to do with the holocaust.

    What a sad, desperate man McIntyre has become since his humilation at the hands of the villainous Lewandowsky.

  22. #22 John
    September 16, 2012

    Welcome back El Gordo! Hey, remember three years ago when you claimed the planet would cool by 1.5 degrees in ten years?

    By my calculations the global average should have gone down by nearly 0.6 since then. It hasn’t! Instead we had the hottest year on record (it was a scorcher!), the warmest La Nina year on record (it was a blinder), the US has had its worst drought in history, arctic ice extent has bottomed out to a record low and dagnabbit, now we’re heading back into an El Nino event that, I’m reliably informed, is unlikely to achieve the climactic conditions you heartily predicted.

    Looks like I was right and you were wrong. Tough to swallow, eh? Hey, I’m sure it will snow soon and you can crow about that til your jolly little heart’s content.

  23. #23 el gordo
    September 16, 2012

    ‘remember three years ago when you claimed the planet would cool by 1.5 degrees in ten years?’

    Patience…there is a lag, I expect to see a tipping point within a couple of years.

  24. #24 el gordo
    September 16, 2012

    David Archibald has a couple of posts up at Watts on the approaching cool spell.

    http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/clip_image012.gif

  25. #25 John
    September 16, 2012

    No, you expected cooling within four years. You blamed the sun and babbled on about coming ice age catastrophes.

    That would give us one more year that, shucks, is widely predicted to be an El Nino fueled scorcher.

  26. #26 John
    September 16, 2012

    Yes Gordo, I know your Archibald prediction will work out as well as these former claims:

    we can expect La Nina to dominate the coming decade

    The latest temperature data is up at Roy Spencer and its down slightly, so I’m thinking that will continue and a trend should become obvious within a year.

    now we will experience cooler weather.

  27. #27 Lionel A
    September 16, 2012

    Can we at least agree that gorebull worming has stopped and its a travesty.

    I think you have missed a message or two, perhaps you don’t understand the implications of this years record Arctic ice melt. Here are some clues.

    And cue for the near future calls that the planet is cooling because somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere gets more snow this coming winter. Will there be enough for Inhofe to build another igloo, I wonder?

  28. #28 Lionel A
    September 16, 2012

    Ice blogger Neven now joins in lambasting Bastardi (his name popped up whilst creating my last post) about his Rookie Mistakes in ‘Joe Bastardi found a cherry’. Well that cherry turned out to be more of a lemon IYSWIM.

  29. #29 Wow
    September 16, 2012

    “David Archibald has a couple of posts up at Watts on the approaching cool spell.”

    OK, are you talking about *winter* here, or is this yet another Groundhog Day “Oh, it’ll cool down any moment now… Any day… Just watch it.. It’ll cool… Any moment, it’ll become cooling… Just watch… Any minute… Really, trust us… Just after this peak, it’ll be cooling… Any…. moment… now… OK, not yet, but soon…”.

    It was supposed to be cooling ever since 1998. Still hasn’t happened.

  30. #30 Vince Whirlwind
    September 16, 2012

    “Patience…there is a lag, I expect to see a tipping point within a couple of years.”

    What a bizarre belief.

    What expert advice are you basing it on, precisely?

    It can’t be solely David Archibald who inspires such certainty in you, because his paper was rubbished and it turned out the rubbishers were correct: Archibald’s predictions have turned out to be complete nonsense.

  31. #31 Vince Whirlwind
    September 16, 2012

    I get it – El Gordo’s face-saving strategy is to pretend he was trolling the whole time.
    Who are you trying to kid?

  32. #32 el gordo
    September 16, 2012

    Steady on, I’m not a professional troll.

    ‘It was supposed to be cooling ever since 1998. Still hasn’t happened.’

    Even as CO2 continues to rise…temperatures have remained flat…

  33. #33 Robert Murphy
    September 16, 2012

    “Steady on, I’m not a professional troll.”

    Yet it does seem to be your calling.

  34. #34 el gordo
    September 16, 2012

    Robert…politically I’m from Labor’s left faction and I voted for joolya at the last election. When she stitched up a deal with Brown to bring in that fkn tax (so that she could remain PM) I walked on a single issue.

    Just because I have a different perspective on the science of CC is no big deal, the broader electorate share my belief and labor will be punished.

  35. #35 Robert Murphy
    September 16, 2012

    My statement didn’t depend on your political leanings.

  36. #36 Vince Whirlwind
    September 16, 2012

    “Even as CO2 continues to rise…temperatures have remained flat…”

    Is that just trolling, or do you need us to explain why that is a spectacularly stupid statement?

  37. #37 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    Just give me a reliable graph, Vince, I don’t have much time for words at the moment.

  38. #38 Wow
    September 17, 2012

    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.gif

    Do you have time for thinking? Or is that being a bit hopeful?

  39. #39 Wow
    September 17, 2012

    “Steady on, I’m not a professional troll.”

    Purely amateur status, then?

    Hey, if you “knew” it had been cooling, how come you don’t know what the temperature trend is?

    Or are you just a mouthpiece for whatever convenient meme strolls by?

  40. #40 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    The NASA graph shows temperatures have flattened over the past decade.

  41. #41 bill
    September 17, 2012

    This ‘ice age is coming; no, really’ stuff cracks me up!

    Speaking of cracking up, here’s a whole collection of graphs for you, Mr. Broader Electorate; now, what do they all say?

    Cheer up; this may well result in dismal non-summers in Britain – I know, it’s hard, isn’t it? not Talkback-radio shouty ‘commonsense’ at all! never mind, you can always punish the thinking people at the polls! – for many years to come, and buffoons can then merrily claim that means it’s an Ice Age. No, really…

  42. #42 ianam
    September 17, 2012

    playing the gimp card

    [Bites lip harder.]

  43. #43 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    ‘….you can always punish the thinking people at the polls! ‘

    Not sure, have you seen the latest boost in joolya’s poll numbers and all because of a big trawler?

  44. #44 Bernard J.
    September 17, 2012

    “Joolya”?

    You’re no more left wing than is Alan Jones or Andrew Bolt.

    And you stretch the truth just as much as they do.

  45. #45 bill
    September 17, 2012

    ‘I was one of you’ / ‘more in sorrow than in anger’ tone-trolling. Boring.

  46. #46 Chris O'Neill
    September 17, 2012

    1998 was in the last decade. You learn something everyday from el gordo.

  47. #47 Chris O'Neill
    September 17, 2012

    the broader electorate share my belief and labor will be punished.

    With a 50-50 preferred in a latest poll, they’re obviously going to get punished. Sure, if you say so, el gordo. Let’s have Mr Wall Punch.

  48. #48 Bernard J.
    September 17, 2012

    Frieler et al have published a paper that says what I and many of my ecology colleagues have been saying for several years now:

    Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs

    Mass coral bleaching events have become a widespread phenomenon causing serious concerns with regard to the survival of corals. Triggered by high ocean temperatures, bleaching events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Here, we provide a comprehensive global study of coral bleaching in terms of global mean temperature change, based on an extended set of emissions scenarios and models. We show that preserving >10% of coral reefs worldwide would require limiting warming to below 1.5 °C (atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) range: 1.3–1.8 °C) relative to pre-industrial levels. Even under optimistic assumptions regarding corals’ thermal adaptation, one-third (9–60%, 68% uncertainty range) of the world’s coral reefs are projected to be subject to long-term degradation under the most optimistic new IPCC emissions scenario, RCP3-PD. Under RCP4.5 this fraction increases to two-thirds (30–88%, 68% uncertainty range). Possible effects of ocean acidification reducing thermal tolerance are assessed within a sensitivity experiment.

    Free to access.

    http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1674.html

  49. #49 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    The projected ‘underlying global warming rate is ≳0.2°C/decade’, except if El Nino remains relatively quiet for a decade.

  50. #50 Jeff Harvey
    September 17, 2012

    “The NASA graph shows temperatures have flattened over the past decade”

    Try explaining that to many of the species inhabiting the Arctic, where ice extent has reached a record low, or elsewhere across much of the temperate world, where they are responding to your ‘it hasn’t warmed in a decade’ by continuing to expand their ranges polewards or to higher elevations, experience much higher rates of winter survival (in the case of thermophilic insects), to initiate reproduction significantly earlier in the season, to persist longer in the season, and to experience phenological disruptions as a result of species-specific responses in tightly lined trophic interactions. This is just a snippet of what’s happening in the natural world as a result of ‘no warming since 1998′.

    Typical of el Gordo to eventually return here with his brand of willful ignorance.

  51. #51 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    Warming has stalled, presumably because of the cool PDO.

    Species suffering from CC have to adapt, as they did during Medieval warming, Roman warming etc etc. And the same goes for the GBR, it will have to migrate south to cooler waters or perish.

  52. #52 bill
    September 17, 2012

    Do you reckon it would be possible to train a monkey to repeat these ‘talking points’? And is this actually what we’re dealing with here?

    Dull – unless, of course, you really are a chimp, in which case your remarkable skills are being exploited, Bubbles…

  53. #53 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    At the LGM our corals blended nicely with New Guinea and obviously during warmer times they moved further south than Brisbane.

  54. #54 Vince Whirlwind
    September 17, 2012

    The assertion, “warming has stalled” is completely stupid. Nobody who is mentally competent could possibly conclude such a thing from the data which is available.

    Data which shows this decade you mention is the warmest ever measured.

    The warmest decade in history, and your conclusion is that “warming has stalled”?

    You’re a moron.

  55. #55 Wow
    September 17, 2012

    There’s yet another idiot newly found the scienceblogs. Over at Starts With A Bang and A Few Things Ill Considered kai is currently displaying all the bad things about homeschooled teabaggers.

    He’s not even amusingly inventive.

    Be careful out there.

  56. #56 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    ‘The warmest decade in history, and your conclusion is that “warming has stalled”?’

    Ocean temperatures are a better indicator of climate change.

    http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/figure-10.png

  57. #57 Wow
    September 17, 2012

    “The projected ‘underlying global warming rate is ≳0.2°C/decade’, except if El Nino remains relatively quiet for a decade.”

    Since El Nino is not a source of energy, the unerlying trend continues even if El Nino deepens, it’s just that the addition of the OSCILLATION OVER A DECADE that is the PDO (guess what the D and O stand for, lipstick) will make the temperature graph display a lower trend.

    Then, when the OSCILLATION turns the other way and puts extra warmth in the atmosphere, the tenperature graph will display an even higher trend.

    Meanwhile the deniers will insist that there is nothing going on.

  58. #58 Wow
    September 17, 2012

    “Ocean temperatures are a better indicator of climate change.”

    Prove it.

  59. #60 Wow
    September 17, 2012

    No, all youve proven is that the sea isn’t measured throughout its depth and that it isn’t warming as fast as the air.

    You haven’t proven your assertion that it is a better indicator of climate change.

    PS you may want to look up “latent heat capacity” and compare the masses of the ocean to the atmosphere. This will help you understand why the oceans lag the atmosphere.

  60. #61 Wow
    September 17, 2012

    Actually, the graph isn’t even showing temperature.

    Did you forget somthing? “Ocean temperatures are a better indicator of climate change.” ring a bell? Notice the words “Ocean Temperature” in there?

    There’s a good boy. Fetch!

  61. #62 Chris O'Neill
    September 17, 2012

    Warming has stalled

    Is that statistically significant?

  62. #63 Chris O'Neill
    September 17, 2012

    At a guess, I’d say the North Pole will probably be accessible by ordinary boat when the Arctic Ocean sea ice gets down to 2 million sqkm extent. That won’t be many years now.

  63. #64 FrankD
    September 17, 2012

    re: el Gordo’s Bob Tisdale link – Tisdale was making an interesting point about the behaviour of the oceans over the medium term.

    Fatboy has just thinks its a new way to climb the escalator the wrong way…

    Anyway, didn’t el Gordo get banned here years ago? Taking advantage of the host’s absence to steal the spoons is frowned upon….

  64. #65 Lionel A
    September 17, 2012

    Pearls of ‘wisdom’ from the swine

    [ 1] Just because I have a different perspective on the science of CC is no big deal, the broader electorate share my belief and labor will be punished.

    If you think the science of climate change depends upon political perspective ideology then you are an ignoramus of the first water.

    This quote from Richard Feynman puts it succinctly, albeit within the context of the space shuttle Challenger disaster:

    For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.

    [2] Species suffering from CC have to adapt, as they did during Medieval warming, Roman warming etc etc. And the same goes for the GBR, it will have to migrate south to cooler waters or perish.

    So please find sources of peer reviewed literature that supports these astonishing assertions.

    Note the differences between the MWP (MCA) and the Romanic period warming, hint geographical area and chronologies of evidence for. Also consider how quickly, or not, species can adapt against the rapidity of the current warming trend. Consider also the other required environmental factors, including geology and pH, necessary for the evolution of coral reefs.

    Vince, I don’t have much time for words at the moment.

    So why are you here at all?

    You seem, to me, to be a drive by time wasting troll who doesn’t appear to consider the old maxim, paraphrased, that, ‘it is better to stay quiet and be thought a simpleton than project ones thoughts and remove all doubt‘.

  65. #66 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    ‘The Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of the East Pacific Ocean, or approximately 33% of the surface area of the global oceans, have decreased slightly since 1982 based on the linear trend.

    ‘And between upward shifts, the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the rest of the world (67% of the global ocean surface area) remain relatively flat. As discussed in my book, anthropogenic forcings are said to be responsible for most of the rise in global surface temperatures over this period, but the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly graphs of those two areas prompt a two-part question: Since 1982, what anthropogenic global warming processes would overlook the Sea Surface Temperatures of 33% of the global oceans and have an impact on the other 67% but only during the months of the significant El Niño events of 1986/87/88, 1997/98 and 2009/10?’

    Bob Tisdale

  66. #67 Marco
    September 17, 2012

    The link to Tisdale’s graph doesn’t even have global ocean temperatures.

    I don’t even want to know the error bars on that trendline either.

  67. #68 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    ‘Fatboy has just thinks its a new way to climb the escalator the wrong way…’

    Yep, that a warm PDO, now its about to come down.

  68. #69 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    What part did Deltoid play in the Lewandowsky Affair?

  69. #70 chek
    September 17, 2012

    “What part did Deltoid play in the Lewandowsky Affair self-embarrassing, all-star crank survey”?

    Fixed that for you El G.

  70. #71 Jeff Harvey
    September 17, 2012

    “Species suffering from CC have to adapt, as they did during Medieval warming, Roman warming etc etc.”

    Where to begin dismantling this unscientific childish gibberish?

    First of all, the MWP and LIA are only acknolwedged as major events in comparison to the current warming amongst the denialati. And the vast majority of those in the denialati are not statured scientists, or are on the academic fringe. Most mainstream scientific debates on AGW – held at conferences, workshops, etc. – don’t consider the MWP and LIA to be major events. Mostly its schmucks like EG that do (who. as was pointed out above, was banned from Deltoid for his stupid assertions once before but has once again slipped the net).

    As for ecological effects, the surface of the planet has been dramatically altered by Homo sapiens over the past 8,000 years, but especially so over the past 100. Trust a brainless boffin like EG to so flippantly dismiss the effects of AGW on biodiversity with a simple ‘it wil have to adapt’. And if much of it doesn’t? As I said, AGW is but one (albeit a major one) of a myriad of huma- inflicted stresses inflicted on complex adaptive systems that generate conditions that sustain and permit human survival. The human approach to the biosphere over the past century has been largely a slash-and-burn/clear-cut/drain/dam/douse in synthetic pesticides/eutrophicate/biologically homogenize/alter the chemical composition of the ait and water/plough/pave approach.This while gaining more and more knowledge of how natural systems maintain conditions that underpin human civilization.

    Against this background we have a bunch of idiots who don’t mind playing economic business-as-usual roulette with nature. The EG’s of this world think apparently that humans can continue the current assault with few or no real ramifications for our short to middle term welfare.They are, of course wrong. But when I read comments like those of EG, it makes me realize the depth of the human dilemma: if his/her views are widespread, then our species is well and truly screwed.

  71. #72 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    John Cook of Sceptical Science is a cartoonist.

  72. #73 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    ‘…then our species is well and truly screwed.’

    Unlikely…but I respect your views as you are probably the only scientist here.

  73. #74 Wow
    September 17, 2012

    Just remembered something to counter those who still whine on about how Venus’ runaway greenhouse effect is solely because of its atmospheric pressure.

    Titan has a denser atmosphere and higher pressure than Mars. Yet the surface of Mars is much warmer.

    If PV=nRT is the entire and sole reason for a surface temperature, then this is impossible.

    (ps el gordo is an idiot)

  74. #75 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    ‘Taking advantage of the host’s absence to steal the spoons is frowned upon….’

    I’m sure Tim won’t mind me hanging around for awhile, ‘you lot’ need someone to abuse otherwise this place will self destruct.

  75. #76 Wow
    September 17, 2012

    He daren’t mind. If he did boot you like T Watts does at his blog to people who disagree with him, you and your ilk would be whining incessantly and using it as “proof” that CO2 isn’t a greenhouse gas or something.

    You are a waste of your daddy’s DNA.

  76. #77 Bernard J.
    September 17, 2012

    Fatso.

    All of your warming-denying mates run away when I ask them to give me their hard-earned money, so maybe you’ll have greater courage of your convictions.

    Back on September 11, 9:55 am (page 1) I offered USKMS a wager. Now it’s your turn – same terms, 24 hours to decide.

    I don’t care with what distortions of science you might want to delude yourself. I’m simply interested in whether your guts are large enough for you to actually stand behind your blather.

  77. #78 Wow
    September 17, 2012

    el gordo’s line there sounds a lot like the religious nutters who go round killing people (e.g. Tony Blair). “If I’ve done wrong, then God will punish me. Since he hasn’t, it must be what He wants”.

  78. #79 Lotharsson
    September 17, 2012

    I’m simply interested in whether your guts are large enough for you to actually stand behind your blather.

    I bet they are not.

  79. #80 Bernard J.
    September 17, 2012

    Lotharsson.

    I bet they are not.

    In which case, he should style himself ‘El Poco Gordo’.

  80. #81 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    Karen was nice, but since her departure this place is dead.

  81. #82 Nick
    September 17, 2012

    el gordo,John Cook is a cartoonist with a physics degree. Snarky old Bob Tisdale forgot that. Bob thinks that because the oceans are warming noisily,AGW and ACO2 have nothing to do with it. That’s the ‘depth’ of his analysis,wrapped in 500 pages of diversion.

  82. #83 bill
    September 17, 2012

    I’m still going with the monkey…

  83. #84 el gordo
    September 17, 2012

    ‘Bob thinks that because the oceans are warming noisily,AGW and ACO2 have nothing to do with it.’

    True dat.

  84. #85 el gordo
    September 18, 2012

    And while I’m at it…the monk is a member of the denialati.

    “The fact that we have had if anything cooling global temperatures over the last decade, not withstanding continued dramatic increases of carbon dioxide emissions, suggests the role of CO2 is not nearly as clear as the climate catastrophists suggest.”

    Tony Abbott, PM in waiting.

  85. #86 Nick
    September 18, 2012

    Abbott thinks this is a fact: “… we have had,if anything,cooling global temperatures over the last decade….” Well,if anything,that’s not a fact,it’s a fiction.

    The clearest ‘ideas’ about the role of CO2 actually come from rejectionists: there is no role for CO2,please. Please.

  86. #87 el gordo
    September 18, 2012

    Did you know that the US has reduced their CO2 emissions back to 1992 levels? Fracking has played a big part in this reduction and it didn’t require a tax on a harmless trace gas.

  87. #88 Dave R
    September 18, 2012

    >By popular request. Comments from El Gordo and folks arguing with him are cluttering up more useful discussions. All comments by El Gordo and responses to comments by El Gordo should go in this thread. I can’t move comments in MT, so I’ll just delete comments that appear in the wrong thread.

    http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/05/16/el-gordo-thread/

  88. #89 el gordo
    September 18, 2012

    guffaw

  89. #90 Craig
    September 18, 2012

    Just reading over David Archibald’s work, and I think I’ve discovered an inadvertant mistake he has made:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/03/quantifying-sea-level-fall/

    Check out the graph for Fort Denison.
    (He has accidentally forgotten to number his Figures. It is Figure 7.)
    You will see that he has accidentally changed the data by accentuating the peaks and reducing the troughs.
    This accidentally modified data allows him to accidentally assert that, “The trend is 0.5mm per annum”. This is unfortunately not true.

    You can contrast David Archibald’s data with the results of a competent analysis here:
    http://www.coastalconference.com/2011/papers2011/Ben%20Modra%20Full%20Paper.pdf

    Which correctly finds a trend of 0.9mm/year.

    I’m sure Anthony Watts would love to know about this mistake appearing on his website so he can correct this mistake and thus make his website slightly less mistaken, but unfortunately comments on that article are closed.

    Maybe somebody could email him?

  90. #91 Craig
    September 18, 2012

    Sorry, let through an incomplete sentence,
    Should say,”…he has accidentally changed the pre-’40s data…”

  91. #92 el gordo
    September 18, 2012
  92. #93 Jeff Harvey
    September 18, 2012

    DaveR: I second that. Since el Gordo can’t apparently tell a mole cricket from a giraffe, and his posts seem to imply that humans are essentially immune from the continued war we are waging against natural systems, he belongs, like Jonas N, in his own little corner.

  93. #94 Jeff Harvey
    September 18, 2012

    ““The fact that we have had if anything cooling global temperatures over the last decade, not withstanding continued dramatic increases of carbon dioxide emissions, suggests the role of CO2 is not nearly as clear as the climate catastrophists suggest.”

    How many times must we go over this crap? It hasn’t cooled over the past decade. Biological responses are proof positive that it is still warming, particularly in temperate biomes. Moreover, for a deterministic system operating at the global scale, 10 years is certainly not a long enough time period to make proper estimations. Stochasticity in many processes can only become deterministic at the proper temporal scale. In terms of global climate control, we are talking about 30 years or more.

    Climate scientists recognize this even if the denialati do not.

  94. #95 Chris O'Neill
    September 18, 2012

    ‘you lot’ need someone to abuse

    el gordo generously wants to remind us that delusion never dies, it just becomes more delusional.

  95. #96 Vince Whirlwind
    September 18, 2012

    I’m not sure, El Gordo, what that is that you are linking to.

    It certainly doesn’t show the Fort Denison sea level data nor does it show the trend from that data.

    As for the unexplained (and inexplicable) forecast…well, Archibald’s last forecast fell flat on its face, so the odds of him being right about another one have lengthened to and even longer length than their previously already very long length.

  96. #97 Vince Whirlwind
    September 18, 2012

    Are you saying, El Gordo, that despite the obviously doctored data Archibald presents in the link provided by my overly-diplomatic colleague, Craig, that you still trust Archibald as a source for information of any sort?

    You *do* know what the opposite of “sceptic” is, don’t you?

  97. #98 Wow
    September 18, 2012

    “el gordo generously wants to remind us that delusion never dies, it just becomes more delusional.”

    An inevitable result when someone is in denial because they think they know better. The more things show them wrong, the more they have to deny.

    Facing up to personal imperfection is impossible for them.

  98. #99 Wow
    September 18, 2012

    “So this is wrong?

    http://wattsupwiththat.files….”

    Yes.

  99. #100 Bernard J.
    September 18, 2012

    Craig, at 4:28 am 18 September 2012.

    You might be interested in an exchange I had – or rather, tried to have – with David Archibald about Fort Denison over at WWWT.

    The guy ran away without saying anything substantive, and leaving his discrepancies and mistakes in the cloud of dust.