September 2012 Open Thread

Time for more thread.

Comments

  1. #1 el gordo
    September 18, 2012

    Good effort BJ and they closed the thread down….admit it, you’re just a troublemaker.

  2. #2 Bernard J.
    September 18, 2012

    Further to the Archibald nonsense.

    A large part of the motivation behind it (and I think that Carter was involved too) was to sway the State Government with respect to the controls that local councils are attempting to put on to future coastal developments.

    Archibald’s lobby group was successful – a couple of weeks ago the NSW environment minister moved to remove the need during development assessment to consider IPCC sea level rise figures.

    Councils can jettison UN sea-rise rules

    by: Ean Higgins
    From: The Australian
    September 08, 2012 12:00AM

    THE O’Farrell government will ditch UN sea-level rise predictions as the basis for coastal management, after local council decisions based on what climate change might do by the end of the century shattered waterfront property values.

    The move, foreshadowed by The Australian in March, is likely to lead to renewed national debate on the application of long-term greenhouse effect forecasts to actual planning policy.

    In an announcement today, the state government will say that climate change science is “continually evolving”, producing uncertainty surrounding sea level rise predictions.

    The change follows an extensive review by a cabinet committee that re-examined the science of coastal processes.

    It comes after revelations in The Weekend Australian owners of 62 beach-front properties at Lake Cathie on the NSW mid-north coast had suffered huge drops in the value of their homes after the Port Macquarie-Hastings council placed notations on their planning certificates saying they were at risk of coastal erosion. Another 17 home-owners at Lake Cathie had faced eviction, when a Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation study recommended “planned retreat” in the face of erosion, a proposal later rejected by the council.

    Lake Cathie was one of 15 coastal erosion “hot spots” on the NSW seaboard identified by the former Labor government.

    Local councils covering those areas are in varying stages of developing coastal zone management plans, and have been required by laws introduced by Labor to take into account sea-level rise predictions of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

    These laws compelled coastal councils to prepare for a forecast sea-level rise of 40cm by 2050 and 90cm by the turn of the century.

    Planners apply a formula known as the Bruun Rule, which estimates that every centimetre of sea-level rise will bring the tide a metre inland based on a standard beach, leading to coastal erosion.

    Special Minister of State Chris Hartcher will announce a new coastal management policy that would free councils from having to rely on the IPCC predictions.

    In a statement, Mr Hartcher says “the heavy-handed application of Labor’s sea-level rise planning benchmarks for 2050 and 2100 would go”.

    “The NSW Chief Scientist and Engineer has identified uncertainty in the projected rate of future sea-level rise given that the scientific knowledge in the field is continually evolving.”

    Based on the long-term IPCC predictions, the Port Macquarie-Hastings council in 2008 placed “Section 149″ notations on houses at Lake Cathie warning they could be subject to coastal erosion, although they are separated from the beach by a 60m-70m strip of bushland and are nine metres above sea level.

    The notations had caused property values to fall by an average of 44 per cent based on sample valuations of four houses.

    “There has been concern about the negative impacts on property values from these unclear Section 149 certificate notations,” Mr Hartcher says in the statement.

    The NSW government would issue advice to all councils to guide the preparation and use of section 149 certificates.

    “This will provide much-needed certainty for local communities on how these certificates refer to future coastal erosion hazard,” the statement says.

    The government will announce further changes to coastal management policy. Councils preparing coastal zone management plans will be given an extra 12 months to complete them.

    If there was any justice, people affected in the future would be able to sue the estates of anyone who willingly and willfully promotes benefit for the rich against the best scientific advice, and at the expense of those people who will otherwise have to pick up the bill in the future.

  3. #3 Jeff Harvey
    September 18, 2012
  4. #4 Bernard J.
    September 18, 2012

    On the matter of the Arctic, it’s salient to recall Peter Sinclair’s summary from a few years ago about what was happening with the walrus in the Arctic:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaXDzOl6Iog

    This year will be unimaginably worse.

    I no longer have any patience for the pathological denialism of the self-indulgent libertarians and ideologues who do want to have to be responsible. Frankly, in most cultures that sort of behaviour would be socially unacceptable if it were conducted in any other context, and it would attract anything from a birch or a strap to a stoning.

    It’s time to call them what they are – genocidal and biocidal maniacs.

  5. #5 el gordo
    September 18, 2012

    “This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates”.

    At least we have a clear date for the warminista tipping point.

  6. #6 John
    September 18, 2012

    We certainly have the denier tipping point in 2015. That’s when you now claim temperatures are going to plunge by 1.5 degrees in four years.

    Why are you such an alarmist Gordo?

  7. #7 Nick
    September 18, 2012

    Bernard J,contrary to the impression given in The Oz’s article on PM-HC’s coastal strategy,more than half the properties affected by the zoning are less than 9m above sea level,and have much less than 60-70m of coastal reserve between them and the sea. Northern part of the zone is perilously close to the sea,you could spit over the reserve onto the sand.

    But,for Ean Higgins and editors, it’s more important to beat back the UN’s one-world-government extremists than get actual and factual.

  8. #8 el gordo
    September 18, 2012

    ‘That’s when you now claim temperatures are going to plunge by 1.5 degrees in four years.’

    I don’t think so, you’re just making shit up. A couple of years ago I said we have a decade before we reach those depths… so its 2020 vision.

    I’m channelling Archibald.

  9. #9 Chris O'Neill
    September 18, 2012

    el who cares:

    the same goes for the GBR, it will have to migrate south to cooler waters or PERISH

    No problem then.

  10. #10 el gordo
    September 18, 2012

    ‘No problem then.’

    Species will be saved through human ingenuity (where necessary) or suffer at the hands of natural selection.

    It is now simply an academic exercise to see if its continued warming or a mini ice age…and its happening on our watch.

    The northern hemisphere is where we would expect to see a build up of snow and ice.

    http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=6

  11. #11 Wow
    September 18, 2012

    “or suffer at the hands of human ignorance”

    FTFY.

  12. #12 Karen
    September 18, 2012

    lol…. so much for gwowbull warming :)

    Cmon fella’s, I need a good laugh, pray tell what are your ridiculous excuse’s for the icecapade’s down south ?

    Why aren’t the canary’s dropping dead both sides of the ecuator. ? hehehehe

    Here is some more info the dumbtiod nuffies.

    Antarctic sea ice reaches record high while IPCC models predicted the opposite

    http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png

    Journal of Climate 2012 ; e-View
    doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00068.1
    An Initial Assessment of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in the CMIP5 Models
    John Turner, Tom Bracegirdle, Tony Phillips, Gareth J. Marshall, and J. Scott Hosking
    British Antarctic Survey, National Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK
    Abstract
    We examine the annual cycle and trends in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) for 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models that were run with historical forcing for the 1850s to 2005. Many of the models have an annual SIE [sea ice extent] cycle that differs markedly from that observed over the last 30 years. The majority of models have too small a SIE at the minimum in February, while several of the models have less than two thirds of the observed SIE at the September maximum. In contrast to the satellite data, which exhibits a slight increase in SIE, the mean SIE of the models over 1979 – 2005 shows a decrease in each month, with the greatest multi-model mean percentage monthly decline of 13.6% dec-1 in February and the greatest absolute loss of ice of -0.40 × 106 km2 dec-1 in September. The models have very large differences in SIE over 1860 – 2005. Most of the control runs have statistically significant trends in SIE over their full time span and all the models have a negative trend in SIE since the mid-Nineteenth Century. The negative SIE trends in most of the model runs over 1979 – 2005 are a continuation of an earlier decline, suggesting that the processes responsible for the observed increase over the last 30 years are not being simulated correctly.

    “) “) “) “) “) “) “) “) “) “) “)

  13. #13 Lionel A
    September 18, 2012

    The Kraken awakes – well would be good if it did.

    Kraken picks a cherry for it only to turn into a lemon, here have a look at this numpty-dumpty:

    Sea Ice Index Animation Tool
    Animate Monthly Extent, Concentrations, Anomalies, and Trends
    , now what do you notice?

    Play back through the months and years Krakenpot.

    Whatever, you do realise that the Antarctic continent is losing ice mass year on year just like Greenland do you not? And yes the phases are different its called seasons you ignoramus or obfuscater – you chose.

    Way past time to being polite to you louts when the ecology of the globe is falling apart faster than the ice.

  14. #14 lord_sidcup
    September 18, 2012

    This deserves publicity. Roger Helman, member of the European parliament and successor to Monckton as UKIP climate change spokesperson, tweets:

    Black Solar PV panels absorb sunlight and get hot. So do they add to global warming? Very little solar energy becomes electricity.

    https://twitter.com/RogerHelmerMEP/status/248038830425378816

    :-))

  15. #15 Bernard J.
    September 18, 2012

    Helman should be tried for crimes against the human gene pool.

  16. #16 Lionel A
    September 18, 2012

    Bernard J on Helmer

    seconded. Now for the vote.

    Which is similar to my reply to prokaryotes over at CP with this story: False Balance Lives: In Worst Climate Story Of The Year, PBS Channels Fox News where Watts is allowed to get away with murderous actions.

    Way past time to be playing mister nice guy with these soulless jerks.

  17. #17 Lionel A
    September 18, 2012

    Black Solar PV panels absorb sunlight and get hot.

    Wait for Watts to pick this one up as a cause of the UHI effect.

    Still shaking head in disbelief which is not helping me wipe the coffee off the screen.

  18. #18 FrankD
    September 18, 2012

    I need a good laugh, pray tell what are Karen’s ridiculous excuses for the icecapades up north?
    http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

    Karen deploys her “special” maths again to suggest that plus-2 standard deviations in Antarctica outweighs minus-6 standard deviations in the Arctic.

    Anyway, her ridiculous “question” has been answered before. Did she not understand? Perhaps the answer used words that were a bit big for poor widdiw Kawen’s bwain…

  19. #19 Wow
    September 18, 2012

    “‘Black Solar PV panels absorb sunlight and get hot.‘”

    And internal combustion engines burn coal and get VERY hot.

  20. #20 John
    September 18, 2012

    I’m “making shit up”? Suffering from a bit of projection there old buddy?

    You claimed that your big freeze would kick off immediately. In four years it would be obvious to everyone, you said.

    You prediction failed (I am in shock). You changed the start date of your big freeze to 2015, meaning you only have four years for the claimed 1.5 degree plunge which, I should point out, is impossible short of perhaps an asteroid hitting the planet.

    The more edifying option here is you’re a troll who babbles crap to get a reaction. I’ll go with that one, chum.

  21. #21 el gordo
    September 18, 2012

    ‘you’re a troll who babbles crap to get a reaction’

    That’s simplistic, like you I’m trying to warn people of the dangers ahead…its not a ‘look over there’ thingy to upset my old comrades here.

    Anyhoo…we should see Archibald’s theory starting to come good by 2015 and from memory we can expect a decrease of 1.5 degrees in New Hampshire not Delhi.

  22. #22 el gordo
    September 18, 2012

    And for those among you worried about species extinction, should we save the humble fruit fly?

    ‘Many species of fruit fly lack the ability to adapt effectively to predicted increases in global temperatures and may face extinction in the near future, according to new research.

    ‘In a study published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences….’

    Watts has the story.

  23. #23 bill
    September 19, 2012

    Bubbles still burbles…

  24. #24 Bernard J.
    September 19, 2012

    ‘Many species of fruit fly lack the ability to adapt effectively to predicted increases in global temperatures and may face extinction in the near future, according to new research.

    ‘In a study published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences….’

    Watts has the story.

    He also seems to deliberately miss the point.

    And he has a bunch of completely Dunningly-Krugered armchair ‘professors’ spouting off about something about which they have no clue. Richard Courtney – industry shill as he is for fossil fuel billionaires – especially leaps into the vat of logical fallacy.

    I have a lot more to say about this, but I’m a bit pressed for time so it will have to wait. I’m sure that Jeff has a few thoughts on the matter too, so perhaps he might like to comment.

    Oh, and Fat-Head, if it were a crime to knowingly and with aforethought spread disinformation about science that has serious repercussions for the future integrity of the biosphere, you’d be hanging from a gibbet or smoking in an electric chair.

    As would Willard and many of his self-interested cronies.

  25. #25 Chris O'Neill
    September 19, 2012

    el gordo:

    The northern hemisphere is where we would expect to see a build up of snow and ice.

    http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=6

    We’re already aware that you’re delusional about the cause of this.

  26. #26 el gordo
    September 19, 2012

    ‘We’re already aware that you’re delusional about the cause of this.’

    How do you account for it?

  27. #27 bill
    September 19, 2012

    Sunspots. Definitely sunspots. And the UHI.

    Sorry, I’m genuinely at a loss as to why anyone is allowing this patent fool to jerk them around willy-nilly.

    That having been said “a bunch of completely Dunningly-Krugered armchair ‘professors’ spouting off about something about which they have no clue” dums up (intentional mis-spelling) the Denier lumpenintellectual experience perfectly.

    Whereas the winged monkey here is just their useful idiot… fly my pretties

  28. #28 Jeff Harvey
    September 19, 2012

    I’ll deal with Watts and his completely asinine behavior with respect to fruit flies and climate change later. I am off to work soon.

    With respect to Archibald, I checked up his publication list on the web of science. Predictably, its thin. VERY thin. Indeed, I could only come up with his Energy and Environment screed. No wonder he’s reduced to guest slots over at Anthony ‘weather man’ Watts’ crapola corner.

    Its been said many times, but it is worth repeating: very, very few of the so-called prominent climate change deniers are statured scientists. What I said about the academic fringe the other day sums them up more with every passing day. Should Archibald’s stuff be therefore taken seriously? In academic circles, the answer of course is a resounding ‘no’. But in denier circles anything goes, so long as the answer remains the same.

  29. #29 el gordo
    September 19, 2012

    But…but…. I thought we were organising a bet on 2015 AD, will the NH be snow free or snowed in?

    Bill seems nice.

  30. #30 bill
    September 19, 2012

    I am. I’m a real sweetie. Not a big fan of time-waster trolls, though…

  31. #31 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    “Sorry, I’m genuinely at a loss as to why anyone is allowing this patent fool to jerk them around willy-nilly.”

    We’re troll baiting.

    el-g meanwhile is probably jerking around his own willy-nilly…

  32. #32 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    “You changed the start date of your big freeze to 2015, meaning you only have four years for the claimed 1.5 degree plunge which, I should point out, is impossible short of perhaps an asteroid hitting the planet.”

    How about el-g state how certain he is. Given that lives are on the line if we do nothing, will he put HIS life on the line if his prediction is wrong?

    We shall have to know who and where he is so we can watch him suicide (his choice of method) in 2015. Or chicken out because he will.

  33. #33 Bernard J.
    September 19, 2012

    El Poco Gordo.

    I offered you a very tasty wager on the previous page, at time stamp September 17, 12:06 pm.

    You were too gutless to accept it, so you have no moral high ground from which to cast bets at anyone else.

    Like a stinky fart you are all wind and no substance – how very typical of the denialist position. And if perchance there is ever any substance, it’s always just a skid mark to the bottom. Again, typical of the denialist position.

  34. #34 Jeff Harvey
    September 19, 2012

    I painfully waded into Judith ‘I have seen the contrarian light’ Curry’s den of iniquity yesterday and the discussion of the precipitous decline in Arctic ice. Let me say that it was a painful experience. The D-K mob thrives over there. One guy was honestly arguing that its been cooling since 2000, so whay the decline in ice? SERIOUSLY. Forget the critical aspects of scale and time lags.

    Curry of course downplayed the current data, and then said that she would discuss the ecological implications of the decline in a future posting. I wait with baited breath for her pearls of wisdom in that field of endeavor.

    With respect to Watts and his puerile smearing of the fruit fly study, what can one say? As Bernard said, the D-K mob is out in full force on that one. Many of these dolts are ridiculing the paper’s findings, even though it was published a very prestigious journal (PNAS). Common taunts over at WUWT are to the effect that insects are ‘expendable’ as far as humans are concerned (totally and utterly wrong: its actually the other way around as far as the health and vitality of natural systems is concerned) and similar flippant remarks.

    There is a large and growing data base showing clearly how the recent warming is harming biodiversity, and not only at the taxonomic or species level, but more importantly at the level of species interactions. We are witnessing phenological disruptions, and differential physiological/behavioral responses of species in tightly interacting food webs. The consequnces of these effects are likely to be borne out in terms of unraveling or fraying food webs, a reduction in systemic resilience and resistance and ultimately local ecosystemic collapse. More worrying will be the loss of critical ecosystem services that nurture and sustain humanity.

    Fruit fly responses are merely just another symptom of the global experiment. And of course fruit flies are also integral parts of food webs, harboring their own guilds of natural enemies and being intimately involved in a myriad of biotic interactions. Next thing you know, the WUWT brigade will be mocking nitrogen fixing bacteria in the soil, leguminous plants that fix nitrogen, or marine phytoplankton. After all, these are all tiny organisms, right? They aren’t important as far as humans are considered. Or are they?

    I would be interested to know what Watts and his merry band of idiots thinks about the loss of wild bees across much of the temperate world as a result of intensive agricultural practices (as well as other anthropogenic stresses). Heck, many of these wild bees are tiny critters, so we don’t need ‘em do we? This is the prevailing mentality on denier sites, as well as amongst a few unwanted strays that come over here like Karen, Betula, Mack and el Gordo. Forget that our crop production hinges critically on pollinator servcies carried out industriously by these bees and some other tiny seemingly unimportant critters. No, the D-K armchair brigade think that sitting in a warm room in an urban house somewhere whilst being insulated from any aspects of the natural world is a given. They lead their material lives, divorced from the nuanced reality that their existence – from the gases we breathe to the food we eat and clean water we drink to the materials that build our homesand cities – all depend on a stupendous array of biotic interactions occurring over quite different scales of space and time across the biosphere.

    Venturing into denier sites is a painful exercise for me. I try to avoid it. There are enough idiots from those sites wandering over to here on occasion to give me severe heart burn without me having to spend time amongst the purveyors of ignorance in their weblogs.

  35. #35 el gordo
    September 19, 2012

    ‘….will he put HIS life on the line if his prediction is wrong?’

    Its the tipping point year, there is nothing to do. If you are correct then we can expect a massive methane release in the next decade and the end of the world as we know it.

    On the other hand, if Archy is right, we can expect longer ski seasons.

    There might be some mild dislocations, but generally there shouldn’t be mass starvation…food security is of the utmost.

  36. #36 el gordo
    September 19, 2012

    ‘I would be interested to know what Watts and his merry band of idiots thinks about the loss of wild bees across much of the temperate world as a result of intensive agricultural practices (as well as other anthropogenic stresses). ‘

    He said it was a virus and his merry men were relieved.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jun/07/honey-bees-virus-varrora-destructor-mites

  37. #38 el gordo
    September 19, 2012

    A par from that link…

    ‘A new paper, published in the Journal of the Kansas Entomological Society, offers a ray of hope for native bee species. In this research, Droege and his colleagues compiled a list of 770 species that are historically native to the eastern U.S. They sent this list to a network of bee experts, asking them to note which species they had found within the past 20 years. The survey revealed that 95 percent of the bee species that lived 150 years ago have not gone extinct. Thirty-seven species were nowhere to be found, but the researchers pointed out that those bees had been rare to begin with and were often subject to taxonomic confusion. The paper offers “a clarification to the ‘all pollinators are going to hell’ point of view,” Droege says.’

  38. #39 N Harris
    Australia
    September 19, 2012

    About David Archibald: the following is copied from Climate Institute
    David Archibald
    Credentials: BSc in 1979.  Archibald is described as a scientist operating in the fields of cancer research, climate science, and oil exploration.   After graduating from Queensland University in 1979, Archibald worked in oil and then joined the financial industry as a stock analyst. Archibald has been CEO of multiple oil and mineral exploration companies operating in Australia. In oil exploration, he is operator of a number of exploration permits in the Canning Basin, Western Australia.  He has not published any scientific articles on climate change or its impacts in peer-reviewed journals.

    Some time ago I challenged a claim in the CADA website that Mt Pinatubo emitted more carbon dioxide than the total emitted in the whole history of human burning of fossil fuels. I was asking them for their reference which they obviously could not find, so they passed me on to Archibald, one of their consulting experts. Here is his complete reply:

    “I am a geologist and a climate scientist.  Natural things cannot emit pollution.
     
    Therefore Mt Pinatubo cannot have emitted pollution.
     
    For your interest, please find attached my last lecture on climate and energy security.”

    It is an argument that does not even rise to the level of a non sequitur. Mind like a steel trap – rusted shut. “Cancer researcher”, Climate scientist”, adviser to the likes of Rinehart, IPA and Alan Jones all on the basis of a BSc in Geology. What can they possibly be thinking – or smoking?

  39. #40 Karen
    September 19, 2012

    Oh……I see Jeff thinks we hate bee’s sheeezzzzzz, lol what a dippie.

    Also you have quite a few spelling mistake’s there again Jeffery, hehe I’m still amazed that all the critters made it past the Holocene :)

  40. #41 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    Just die, trolls. Die in a horrible accident with all your family supurating their internal organs around you.

    You deserve no better.

  41. #42 Karen
    September 19, 2012

    Hat Mr Gordo, nice to meet you :)

    The bunch of B’s in here are shakin’ in thier boot’s at the thought of a confrontation with a varroa mite, it could mean the extinction of the alarmist cult, hehe

  42. #43 Karen
    September 19, 2012

    err, sorry

    Hello Mr Gordo, nice to meet you :)

  43. #44 John
    September 19, 2012

    Gordo, not so keen to defend your failed predictions?

    I believed you buddy. I believed the planet was about to plunge into an ice age and that you were the only one brave enough to tell us the truth.

    Now you turn out to be another false prophet peddling ideologically-driven nonsense.

    I am deeply disappointed in you, son.

  44. #45 Jeff Harvey
    September 19, 2012

    “On the other hand, if Archy is right”….

    Consideing that IMHO the guy’s a crank, one might as well go to a witch-doctor, palm reader or astrologer who probably have about as much expertise as Archibald.

    To reiterate, a dearth of relevant qualifications sums up many of the so-called prominent deniers quite well.This is why they are to be ignored.

    Karen: you and your brethren in the ignoranti don’t hate biodiversity; you just take it for granted, as well as the conditions that allow you to exist (sad thought, that) that are generated and emerge from natural systems (ecosystem services).

    The climate change deniers, by-and-large are anti- environmentalists, and its hardly a surprise that many of those denying human effects on the climate are also deniers of other human-induced stresses on the naturasl economy and their attendant effects. As Lewandowsky also showed, the climate change denail blogosphere is littered with pundits on the far right end of the political spectrum. Again, this sordid bunch typically hate science that produces results suggesting more, not less, regulation of corporate activities is required.

    On the wild side all is certainly NOT well, El dummo. There is certainly profound concern over poillinator declines as a result of intensive agriculture. In western Europe wild solitary bees are declining. I was recently in Hungary where extensive agricultural methods are still in common use and I was amazed at the huge diversity of insects I observed in flowering meadows. Many species of butterflies, for instance. Here in Holland, aside from 3 species of pierids, its hard to find any wild butterflies in large numbers. A colleague of mine is studying wild bee populations and he asserts the concern of regional population declines that may have implications for pollinator services. And bees are not the only insects providing important service functions that are in trouble, as I said above. Climate change is also causing asymmetric shifts in the distributions of some specialist herbivores and their food plants. Dipsticks like El Gordo sit in front of their computers, find one of two studies, then arrogantly assert that ‘all is well’. Sorry, fatty, but it does nto work this way.

    Karen, the time you mouth off about dippies may I suggest you take a good, long hard look in the mirror. You’ll be staring at a mega-dippie right in the face.

  45. #46 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    “On the other hand, if Archy is right”

    There are nearly an infinite number of wrong answers.

    The chances of Archy being right are, appropriately, astronomical.

  46. #47 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    What if the IPCC are right?

  47. #48 el gordo
    September 19, 2012

    Hi Karen, nice to meet you too.

  48. #49 el gordo
    September 19, 2012

    ‘As Lewandowsky also showed, the climate change denail blogosphere is littered with pundits on the far right end of the political spectrum.’

    :-) Lew

    Anyway its not true, I’m of the political left and walked on a single issue…AGW and that fkn tax.

  49. #50 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    Hasn’t someone cleaned the earth of your infection yet, El-G?

  50. #51 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    “and that fkn tax.”

    So you object to paying to clean up any mess you cause?

    You sure don’t like personal responsibility, do you.

  51. #52 Karen
    September 19, 2012

    Wow has his poodah switched on 24 hours a day and he thinks that by paying more for his electricity he will save the world, lol

  52. #53 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    There are psychologists who would just LOVE to know where that “idea” came from, spots.

    It is the mother and father of all segues. Completely divorced from any conceivable prior.

  53. #54 Jeff Harvey
    September 19, 2012

    This article,and the references therein, sums it up and pretty well demolishes El Gordo’s feeble exercise:

    http://unaf-apiculture.info/presse/dossier_Gallai_2009_EcolEcon_68_810.pdf

  54. #55 Lionel A
    September 19, 2012

    We are witnessing phenological disruptions, and differential physiological/behavioral responses of species in tightly interacting food webs.

    That statement of Jeff’s should be emblazoned on the forehead of ‘the crackpot’ brigade here. But heck I doubt that they understand what you are on about Jeff – ‘Phenotype what’s that? I hear grinding in their little grey cells. They cannot cope with more than one variable at a time so the thought that two species, maybe from different branches of the tree of life and geographically seperated, could become developmentally disjointed by one reacting to a change in temperature and the other by the timings of changes from day to night and back again.

    Throw in the additional problems of migration caused by changing wind and weather patterns and the barriers erected by humans and you have an entire ecological web under stress. Then there are the issues of over-harvesting, pesticides, neonicotinoides – think of tobacco dangers thereof -etc.

    Something else that should be emblazoned on the foreheads of the jerks are these epithetes:

    ‘I must learn about latent heat and heat capacities.’

    ‘I must find out about ocean and atmospheric circulations and how they can become disrupted.’.

    ‘I must learn about ocean and atmospheric chemistry and physics.’

    ‘A study of oceanography would be a must for me’.

    ‘I need to study ecology and the known facts about the evolution of life’.

    But of course all that takes time and effort and the negotiation of difficult texts containing many new and big words. Indeed considerable effort would need to be expended by the likes of the nuts that show up here – they are starting from a very low base.

  55. #56 Jeff Harvey
    September 19, 2012

    Lionel: excellent post.

    And to follow on from El Gordo’s ‘wild pollinators are fine’ nonsense:

    Still more evidence of a global decline in pollinators…

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/09/120904101128.htm

    I could provide ample evidence also for declines in species and guilds involved in a range of other vital ecological processes. It is profoundly frustrating when D-K acolytes try and give the impression of competence in areas they have never studied and of which they know virtually nothing. But the weblogs are full of self-educated wannabes who think they know more than scientists who have spent decades studying various fields. The climate change denial crowd is dominated by them. Every skeptical web site is chock full of ‘experts’ who have never published a paper, or who have never been close to a science lab, workshop or conference in their lives.

  56. #57 Chris O'Neill
    September 19, 2012

    How do you account for it?

    The only thing that has not been falsified.

  57. #58 bill
    September 19, 2012

    Well known Denier, friend of Heartland, and all-round Wing-nut Cory Bernardi has just resigned as fellow Denier and all-round Wing-nut Tony’s Parliamentary Secretary over his poisonous ravings about gay marriage.

    This buffoon is an embarrassment to South Australia, and the Liberal Party here really ought to be ashamed for dishing up such an unrepresentative extremist as their no. one Senate candidate. The man was born on the wrong continent: he belongs in the Tea Party.

  58. #59 Karen
    September 19, 2012

    Wow
    10:57 am

    The carbon tax was introduced as a way to force users to reduce power consumption and that in turn will (supposedly) reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by .00000000005 ppm within 3624 years and save the bee’s.

    So Wow………..why haven’t you reduced your electricity consumption ?

    Has anybody in here ?

    NO NO NO would be the answer !

    See……….the carbon tax doesn’t even make the alarmist’s reduce their power usage, I reckon that would indicate that none of you are serious about this CO2 thingo.

    Um…….how did the flowers get pollinated during the holocene ?

    Why weren’t we all dead before we were born :)

  59. #60 Karen
    September 19, 2012

    So birdbrain dill, you live in South Australia !

    No wonder you believe in gwowbull warming so ardently, you live in the dessert, lol, hehe, lol

  60. #61 Jeff Harvey
    September 19, 2012

    RE: insidious stupidity: please see Karen’s 2 most recent posts above.

    If many pollinators had become extinct during the Holocene, you moron, then most flowering plants would have followed suit. Without flowering plants, there would have been massive and widespread ecosystem collapse acorss much of the biosphere. Most plants are pollinated by other species – with insects perhaps the most important – and not passively.

    The vast majority of species extant today have been around 100,000 or more years; many have been around for a million or longer. Insects in particular have long shelf-lives under normal circumstances. Your Holocene argument is therefore complete and utter tosh. Please find some reference to suggest that there was a mass extinction event of invertebrates during the Holocene. Like many self-taught pundits, your attempt at dabbling in paleoecology is showing us all here how vacuous you really are.

  61. #62 Karen
    September 19, 2012

    ALARM ALARM ALARM

    DING DING DING

    Hehehe, your a bit (read allot) slow orf the mark Jeff, lol

  62. #63 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    SEE!

    PROOF the deniers are ALARMISTS.

  63. #64 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    “The carbon tax was introduced as a way to force users to reduce power consumption ”

    No it wasn’t. It was to pay for the externalities of the mess you made that you don’t want to take responsibility for.

  64. #65 Lionel A
    September 19, 2012

    So birdbrain dill, you live in South Australia !

    No wonder you believe in gwowbull warming so ardently, you live in the dessert, lol, hehe, lol

    Kraken stop behaving like you have had a lobotomy and consider that there are an awful lot of people who are not laughing because of the climate impacting on their lives such as to destroy their homes, their living or even their families.

    You are becoming increasingly supercilious in a malicious and cold hearted way. Here are some areas where many are not laughing Interactive Wildfire Map Shows Outbreaks in Real-Time.

    Have you no intimation of how serious events such as this are. When the glaciers that feed the watercourses in those areas are gone they will have nothing with which to fight the fires. Permanent evacuation will be the only option, plus extinction for most species.

    But any time soon, as rising ocean waters cause tectonic stresses on coastlines then the whole Cascade fault system could slip into motion with off shore submarine landslides and earth movements that could cause tsunamis that will make the 2004 Boxing Day event in the East Indies seem like a ripple in the bath.

    You really have no idea of the dangers we face.

  65. #66 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    “Kraken stop behaving like you have had a lobotomy”

    This is like asking someone who is drunk not to act like they’re drunk.

  66. #67 Bernard J.
    September 19, 2012

    I see that barnturd still has his fascination with feces, take your pills barnturd.

    Oh, the irony…

    barnturd no rational person would take a bet with a mentally challenged numptie.

    I offered you a legally-binding contract taht would be completely impervious to any mental deficiency that you might perceive on my part, and the intercession of an impartial third party to hold the funds in escrow so that neither party could take advantage.

    All that was required of you is that you stand by your claim that the Arctic is not melting at an unprecedented rate. You soiled yourself and ran away.

    To date not a single global warming denier that I’ve challenge to put their money where their mouth is has had the balls to do so. And you know why? It’s because you’re all a bunch of jack-booted, lily-livered, self-indulgent, biocidal maniacs with no functioning intellects to speak of, and an extreme distaste for applying the same rules to yourselves that you seek to apply to others.

  67. #68 Jonas N
    September 19, 2012

    The usual suspects still regurgitating the usual obsessions I see

    :-)

    So, are you better off than four years ago? Or five (if we refer to the last IPCC report)? Are things coming around and finally going your way? Anything catching up with the predictions yet? How far behind schedule is the promissed global mean temperature by now? What chances for it to catch up once more? Or that this trailing is nothing but a temporary and natural fluctuation disguising the real trend?

    It’s been over a year fellows. So how are these alleged and large positive feedbacks coming around? Still there? In all the simulations? Has anybody yet figured out what Jeff H meant by ‘doing something about it’ wrt to glaciers melting? Or about any arctic summer sea ice minimum for that matter?

    Just wondering …

    :-)

  68. #69 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    “It’s been over a year fellows. So how are these alleged and large positive feedbacks coming around?”

    Given the sea ice at the north pole has been on the news everywhere as collapsing even faster than expected, rather odd you should have missed it.

    I guess for you, ignorance is not only bliss, it is the only option.

  69. #70 Lionel A
    September 19, 2012

    As if the PBS special with Muller rolled out and Watts given far too much latitude there is another Muller story kicking about and this time Deep Climate digs into Muller’s CBC broadcast.

    Some while back either here or on another blog I posited that Muller is less trustworthy where opinions on climate scientists are being offered along with a number of other worries. Well colour me stupid but there is Muller supporting the Kochs. Well I’ll be damned!

    For those not with the UK idiom that last expression is an alternative to, well I am not surprised!

  70. #71 el gordo
    September 19, 2012

    ‘MULTI-BILLION-DOLLAR subsidies for solar rooftop panels would be dumped under a plan by some of Australia’s biggest industrial power users, who warn they face an explosion in costs for a federal renewable scheme favouring intermittent wind and solar electricity technologies that only provide part-time electricity supplies.’

    Annabel Hepworth in the Oz

  71. #72 Jonas N
    September 19, 2012

    Wow

    So you believe it has been established that it is CO2 and those alleged large positive feedbacks that have caused the somewhat lower arctic ice summer minimum?

    Well, if that has been in the news I did in fact miss it completely.

    BTW, what is ‘collapsing sea ice’ anywhay? Sounds like Gore-speak to me …

  72. #73 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    Yes and yes, Joan.

    And I would suggest you get a dictionary.

    And a teacher.

  73. #74 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    “Annabel Hepworth in the Oz”

    So what she’s reporting on is alarmism from industry leaders.

    Why tell us?

  74. #75 el gordo
    September 19, 2012

    ‘All that was required of you is that you stand by your claim that the Arctic is not melting at an unprecedented rate.’

    The melting is not unprecedented, but its hard to verify one way or another.

    The Guardian article gave a clear indication that Arctic waters will be free of ice in the summer of 2015 and that’s a worthwhile bet….something which can be easily verified.

  75. #76 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    “The melting is not unprecedented, but its hard to verify one way or another.”

    Then how do you know it is not unprecedented?

    I would suggest you and Joan get together to buy a dictionary and hire a teacher for remedial classes.

  76. #77 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    “The Guardian article gave a clear indication that Arctic waters will be free of ice in the summer of 2015 and that’s a worthwhile bet”

    You’ve already been asked for a bet on something verifiable.

  77. #78 el gordo
    September 19, 2012

    ‘You’ve already been asked for a bet on something verifiable.’

    We need a definitive winner and in this two horse race the 2015 deadline is clearcut.

  78. #79 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    No, you needed something verifiable.

    That is all you wanted.

    Or at least that’s what you SAID.

    I guess you lied.

  79. #80 el gordo
    September 19, 2012

    ‘I guess you lied.’

    Joker.

    Care to bet on a freezing winter in the UK?

  80. #81 chek
    September 19, 2012

    Oh lookee – it’s Jonarse back with his second language (“somewhat lower”, read: record) word-play.

    It can only be a matter of time before his accompanying quotient of remedial-requiring numpties turn up to worship every syllable from the Arse of Jon and take advantage of Tim’s current infirm status. Because that’s the kinda people they are.

  81. #82 Wow
    September 19, 2012

    “Care to bet on a freezing winter in the UK?”

    So you weren’t even interested in the arctic ice, then?

    And odd that you’re not even willing to bet on YOUR prediction of 1.5C increase in global average temperatures by 2015.

  82. #83 el gordo
    September 19, 2012

    ‘…take advantage of Tim’s current infirm status.’

    Its news to me and I’m sorry to hear it.

  83. #84 el gordo
    September 19, 2012

    ‘And odd that you’re not even willing to bet on YOUR prediction of 1.5C increase in global average temperatures by 2015.’

    Do try and keep up, its 1.5 decrease in New Hampshire around 2020….that’s what Archy said.

    We should see some signs by 2015, so let the cherry picking begin.

  84. #85 chek
    September 19, 2012

    So Jonarse seeks to pretend that satellite observations since 1979 are the sum total of what’s known about arctic ice cover.
    No wonder he and his ilk are so malleable.

  85. #86 bill
    September 19, 2012

    Gee, all the chimps are here for their Tea Party.

    Nice fellow-travellers you’ve got, supposed ‘lefty’ Bubbles.

    If you had any decency, if you really had to return you’d stay in your respective enclosures, and then anyone who wished to while away the hours ‘debating’ you would, at least, be doing it voluntarily, and you wouldn’t be taking advantage of our hosts infirmity.

    That’s a very big ‘if’.

  86. #87 bill
    September 19, 2012

    Meanwhile back in the real world Oberauer and Lewandowsky land some very palpable hits on ‘expert’ McIntyre.

  87. #88 Chris O'Neill
    September 20, 2012

    Karen:

    The carbon tax was introduced as a way to force users to reduce power consumption

    You didn’t get very far at all before saying something wrong (as usual). The primary purpose of the carbon tax is to shift energy production away from carbon-emitting sources and toward non-carbon emitting sources. If it reduces consumption then that helps but it’s not necessary.

  88. #89 Chris O'Neill
    September 20, 2012

    you here who cheer for the potency of CO2

    Another day, another misrepresentation.

  89. #91 el gordo
    September 20, 2012

    A step change in solar indices around 2005.

    http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/281

  90. #92 Jeff Harvey
    September 20, 2012

    Trust fatso to cherry pick Peter Mayhew’s latest study to draw his own conclusions. And also trust him to ignorantly ignore dozens of other studies that draw different short-term conclusions. Science does not work by consensus Gordo. But it does work on the basis of probabilities. And there is an ongoing debate in the scientific community (myself included, since some of my empirical research overlaps with the models Peter is producing) as to the effects of the human experiment on biodiversity over different scales.

    Several points: Peter is a friend and colleague and in no way would he ever argue that AGW is beneficial in terms of its effects on the planet’s complex adaptive systems. His models are certainly open to discussion for the simple reason that they appear to rely heavily on certain parameters – lie metabolic rate, temperature induced stress etc. whilst ignoring others, such as broader phenological processes and non-linear effects on system dynamics. They also don’t pay enough attention in my view to rates of change in temperature, precipitation and other abiotic characters that are invariably important as well. The model also ignores effects of warming at biome edges, as well as on interactions between soil and above-ground biota. No doubt his paper will generate debate but is it the bottom line? Of course not. Deniers like Gordo think that they can pluck a single study from the theoretical and empirical literature and then say it trumps everything else. I am certain that Peter would be pretty dismayed that D-K people like Gordo (and Jonas, who has waded back here with his arrogant brand of willful ignorance) would (ab)use his study to bolster their own short-term political agendas.

    One might say that clear cutting a forest increases local biodiversity in terms of species that thrive in disturbed habitats or habitat edges but is this a good thing? Moreover, is the rate of ice loss in the Arctic unprecedented? Of course we can’t say for sure but the fact that 2/3 of it has disappeared in just over three decades is of profound concern. Given that this is the blink of a temporal eye, it would require some massive external forcing to account for it. Its too bad that uneducated boffins like the deniers who contaminate this site are all non-scientists who do not have a clue about the importance of scale and of the difference between a stochastic process and a deterministic one.

  91. #93 Karen
    September 20, 2012

    New paper shows Canadian temperatures as warm or warmer many times over past 785 years

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2012/09/new-paper-shows-canadian-temperatures.html

  92. #94 Jonas N
    September 20, 2012

    chek, Jeff H and Chris O’Neill …

    Still not even reading what is actually said?

    Jeff H …

    Still in the belief that mentioning D-K is an ‘argument’ in your favour?

    I even notice that some here think mentioning Lewandowsky does the same trick.

    Hilarious!

  93. #95 Wow
    September 20, 2012

    Back on the payroll again, Joan?

  94. #96 Wow
    September 20, 2012

    “Do try and keep up, its 1.5 decrease in New Hampshire around 2020″

    Which bit of New Hampshire.

    And from what period is this shift asserted?

    And you STILL haven’t said that you’re willing to bet on it.

    If you can’t keep up with your OWN statements, how can anyone else be censured for failing?

  95. #97 Wow
    September 20, 2012

    “Wow, have you seen the ice cubes ‘collapse’ in your drink”

    Yes.

    Are you under the impression that the entire ocean fits into a glass tumbler?

    Are you saying that there is ABSOLUTLY NO ICE on land?

  96. #98 Wow
    September 20, 2012

    “Mine just melt … but just maybe yours do collapse.”

    So there was no collapse of the stock market five years ago?

    Or are you just uneducated and unaware of the use of the English language?

  97. #99 Wow
    September 20, 2012

    “Still not even reading what is actually said? ”

    You missed out the “I am” at the beginning there.

  98. #100 el gordo
    September 20, 2012

    ‘Science does not work by consensus Gordo.’

    Really? What about the 97 percent of atmospheric scientists who believe in AGW?