October 2012 Open Thread

More thread.


  1. #1 Lionel A
    October 15, 2012

    Point is people, how can we call out people like Rose so that he becomes too ashamed to repeat?

    Yes I appreciate that maladapted creatures (not evolved beyond stone age cognitive processes) like Rose have no sense of shame or a conscience. The comments thread at the base of that article is depressing reading and notable by all the sensible and informed comments being voted down to the bottom by the ignoratti. These ignoratti need a kick up the fundament too.

    Never in the field of human history will so many be afflicted because of the lumpish actions of so few. The few being those bankrolling this type of propaganda.

  2. #2 Wow
    October 15, 2012

    Denial isn’t just for the science. It’s of everyone who criticises them.

    Look to the fundie mantra of how anything and everything is “proof” of their persecution. This not only allows them to ignore the criticism but also allows them to “prove” to themselves they must be on to something.

  3. #3 Lionel A
    October 16, 2012

    Patrick ‘CO2 is good for plants’ Michaels has produced more misleading smoke screens to divert the attentions of, mainly, US politicians from the realities of climate change as is currently being pointed out at Rabett Run and Climate Denial Crock of the Week blogs.

    Michaels’ ally Chip Knappenberger seems incensed that people at Skeptical Science should cast due doubt on the motives of these prime examples of devious denialists.

    Knappenbegers’ attempts at excuses can be found here and more especially here .

    What thin skins these creatures have who seem so eager to sling insults at others. And yes Knappenberger and Michaels, distorting the work of other scientists is insulting in the extreme and you deserve every condemnation heaped upon you.

    Chip and Pat you are also insulting assaulting the world and all other organisms that inhabit it.

  4. #4 Wow
    October 16, 2012

    Maybe Pat is distancing himself from his “CO2 is plant food” with all these plants dying in the USA despite an abundance of this “food”.

  5. #5 lord_sidcup
    October 16, 2012

    Point is people, how can we call out people like Rose so that he becomes too ashamed to repeat?

    I have little faith in the process but Leo Hickman has tweeted that 3 complaints have been submitted to the UK Press Complaints Commission. Given that the article only appeared 2 days ago there will likely be more. The usual get-out-of-jail-free card when climate change denial is published in the UK press is that it is an opinion piece. I can’t see anything – at least in the web version – to indicate it is an opinion piece and (amazingly) it was published under science.

    Most likely outcome is the Fail will publish a small clarification which the PCC will deem as sufficient remedial action.

  6. #6 Wow
    October 16, 2012

    Despite Top Gear, in defence of their hack-job on the Tesla electric car (‘cos they’re all a bunch of old aged boys), maintained they were known to be an entertainment not factual review programme.

    Despite STILL being listed under “Factual” in the BBC iPlayer app…

  7. #7 lord_sidcup
    October 16, 2012
  8. #8 IANVS
    October 17, 2012


    Thought you & the gang might appreciate what Tom Harris is up to these days.

    “It is misleading for IANVS to write concerning my article on the serious flaws in the climate science poll last week, “And that from the Executive Director of the International Climate Science Coalition (ICSC), another climate change denier PR org… etc.”


  9. #9 IANVS
    October 17, 2012

    Forgot this leaden nugget:

    Uncritically, Media Accepts Misleading Global Warming Poll

  10. #10 Olaus Petri
    October 17, 2012

    I think a paraphrase of the first comment in “Jonas thread” is in order:

    “Deltoid, the place were climate scare trolls are dead”.

    Only handful staggering zombies left (not right?) in this dungeon of conspiracies and hatred. 🙂


    Can’t be fun being so completely out of fashion. 😉 Why not give the blogg a more suitable name? Desertoid perhaps? Could it be that people now understand that there isn’t a well funded right wing conspiracy working against climate science and that there is no one that wants to destroy mother earth?

    Take care!

  11. #11 Wow
    October 17, 2012

    Olap, grow up and stop being a twat. You exhibit all the signs of this:


  12. #12 lord_sidcup
    October 17, 2012

    I do believe Olaus has developed a sense of entitlement towards Tim’s blog. Wow – I think it is more a case of this:


    but I suppose the 2 aren’t mutually exclusive.

  13. #13 bill
    October 17, 2012

    Please, Olaus, don’t slam the door on your way out.

  14. #14 chek
    October 17, 2012

    in this dungeon of conspiracies

    Looks like they just can’t help confirming Lewandowsky’s paper with every dribble.

  15. #15 Wow
    October 17, 2012

    “but I suppose the 2 aren’t mutually exclusive.”

    Well, the insistence on using smilies is definitely a part of the tactic of passive aggressive and nothing to do with narcissism.

    It may be that the passive aggressive is more likely to be narcissistic, since they do not want any strong proof for or against their words since that would crack their self-image, hence it is better to be a passive aggressive and let fake victimhood allow you to wave away criticism with “Oh, you’re being a bully, so you MUST be wrong on this!”.

  16. #16 Kevin
    October 17, 2012

    Hey everyone. On a lighter note, this pretty funny climate science vid just went up: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIsjbQCptF0&sns=em


  17. #17 bill
    October 17, 2012

    If it wasn’t for Science, I could fly like a blue heron!

    Yep, the haterism sure is unsustainable…

    Thanks Kevin – I’ll spread that one around!

  18. #18 Dave McRae
    October 18, 2012

    The Loon Pond is a lovely blog that covers the crazy in the press so I don’t have to 🙂

    She picks up Murdoch’s Oz for the re-running that favourite denier, “but I’m not longer a denier but please continue subsidising fossil fuels because I’m so smart”, Lomborg


    I would not recommend following Loon Pond’s link to the Lomborg piece like I did :). Summary: after alot of words on GM foods means that the Climate Vulnerability Monitor 2012 report is thus flawed and thus investing in a clean energy future will mean poor people die by burning dung.

  19. #19 Bernard J.
    October 18, 2012

    Well, it seems after the first three months of operation that those opposed to pricing carbon will be choking on humble pie. There has been a notable drop in carbon emissions in Australia with the introduction of the price:


    Interestingly, it’s apparent that consumers started their reduction in power use just prior to the price engaging, showing that people are indeed motivated by the true cost of goods and services when those costs are actually passed on, and more interestingly the economy hasn’t yet collapsed from the price. In my own circle, my friends’ and relatives’ bills haven’t increased at a rate any greater than in previous periods, and they’ve had the offset to sweeten the fact that most are actually quite energy efficient.

    What’s worrying some of them though is that further costs of infrastructure repair seem to be looming. They’re as nervous as Barney Stinson on Slapsgiving…

  20. #20 bill
    October 18, 2012

    those opposed to pricing carbon will be choking on humble pie

    Lots of egg destined for so many sneering faces…

    Sadly, the oblivious morons that hang around here are a reliable guide that such mentalities are incapable of comprehending – let alone acknowledging – error. They’ ll merely double-down on bullshit.

    The ever-increasing tension between the epistemic-bubble of the gloating idiots’ wrongheaded ‘reality’ and actual reality significantly diminishes any appeal they may still have to those who want to engage with the world as it really is, however.

  21. #21 Olaus Petri
    October 18, 2012

    Yesterdays news I presume? 🙂


    Blame it on the right wing illuminati, right? 😉

  22. #22 Wow
    October 18, 2012

    No, more denialist groupwanking, Olap.

  23. #24 bluegrue
    October 19, 2012

    The Australian Communications and Media Authority has reigned in Alan Jones (patron of the Australian Galileo Movement) of station 2GB in Sydney. Stephan Lewandowsky has the details.


  24. #25 bill
    October 19, 2012

    Olaus, you’re the little fat sneering kid in the class that just won’t shut up and thinks his farts are hilarious. You keep claiming you’re going away – no-one would miss you if you did, so do it.

    Ah, poor old Alan – now the ‘cyber-bullies’ have made him have to take facts into account, thus changing the habits of a lifetime. What an outrageous blow to Free Speech™, or, remembering his starring role in Cash-For-Comment, Fee Speech.

    No doubt the narcissistic little thug will manage to feel genuinely sorry for himself; the rest of us may well see it as too-little, too-late.

  25. #26 StevoR
    October 19, 2012

    I have just submitted this emailed letter to the editor :


    Dear editors (& hopefully readership)

    In his Thursday ‘Advertiser’ column (Page 24, “Pause for warming effect” inset box 2012 October 18th) Andrew Bolt claimed that new data show a lack of warming over the past 16 years. Mr Bolt is entitled to his own opinion but not his own facts – empirical observed evidence collected by NASA NOAA and the CSIRO among others flatly contradicts this false claim. For example, search the NASA website and anyone can find reference to the fact that 2010 was the hottest year on record tying with 2005 and last year was globally the hottest recorded La Nina cycle year. This year as many know but Mr Bolt apparently missed saw the lowest Arctic sea ice extent on record, another key indicator of the reality of our current artificially induced planetary overheating. Bolt’s piece was factually inaccurate and highly misleading and 98%. of qualified climatologists, individuals who have spent decades studying and working on understanding the facts and processes and nature of Earth’s climate are agreed that Global Overheating is real and a serious concern. I strongly believe it is overdue that we listened to those climatologists who actually know what they’re talking about on this topic not ideologically blinkered polemicists and request the Advertiser please consider this in future and ideally both issues a correction and runs a counter-piece by a reputable climatologist preferably in Mr Bolt’s place.

    Best regards :

    (My details – ed.)


    In response to Andrew Bolt’s extraordinarily wrong claim in a recent column and thought folks here may like to know / respond similarly / provide feedback?

  26. #27 Olaus Petri
    October 19, 2012

    Dear Bill, thanks for sharing your insights about fat kids. It can’t be easy knowing all the signs of evil like you Deltoids do.

    Anything on Gergis? 😉

  27. #28 Marco
    October 19, 2012

    On Gergis: resubmitted, and if my sources are right, with little change in the results.

    Expect major outcry in pseudoskeptic blogosphere.

  28. #29 Jeff Harvey
    October 19, 2012

    Yes, I notice Olaus consistently comes back here with his witless wisdom and links to right wing anti-environmental blogs in tow. He clearly reads everything said on Deltoid, and, like the other clowns who deny AGW, seems to think that his vacuous quips actually resonate on an intellectual level with some readers here.

    Mesage for Olaus: They don’t. Well, with a caveat: they do but only with those (like you) whose political biases trump scientific facts. You clearly don’t read the primary literature, a point I have made a million timers, but instead saunter your way through the contrarian blogs because these bolster your own retarded beliefs. You claim – whilst refusing to read any of the evidence provided and there is a helluva lot of it out there – that polluting industries and those with vested interests in denial invest huge sums of money to influence public policy on the issue of climate change. This is what raises a red flag for me – I have recommended numerous books and other sources of information but you clearly refuse to read them. And on this platform of ignorance you then deride comments about a well-funded industry of denial. Next thing you’ll tell me is that there’s no proof that dozens of corporations fund political candidates to the tunes of billions of dollars in the United States. Of course, they do, but so long as you keep a paper bag over your head, you can forever claim that its a lie.

    Get a life, dopey. If you aren’t willing to read anything a scintilla of a millimeter outside of the box you’ve constructed for yourself, then don’t expect people to try and engage with you in some form of meaningful discussion.

  29. #30 Olaus Petri
    October 19, 2012

    Marco, I’m sure we all can appriciate if its resubmitted.

  30. #31 Jeff Harvey
    October 19, 2012

    Correction: Olaus refuses to believe that industries invest…… and so on!

  31. #32 GSW
    October 19, 2012

    Thanks for the Jo Nova link Olaus. Made me laugh 🙂

    Yeah the “This is what 95% certainty looks like in climate science”, well, exactly. Thought about a discussion we had on another thread about that very point, where is he these days by the way? 😉

    As for “yourself [jeff] not letting your conspiracies and intolerant personality take the better of you?” Your asking him to stop being jeff!. Too far gone I think to consider a personality transplant at this late stage.

    Also, for those of you who follow NH sea ice extent, and attach great significance to records etc, seems to be bouncing back quite nicely after the summer low!


    Some observers claim it’s the fastest refreeze since records began! wow!

  32. #33 Jeff Harvey
    October 19, 2012


    No, I don’t ‘make up facts’ – I do what any person should do when challenged: look for the evidence themself. You belittle statements referring to the anti-environmental slush fund on the basis of your own inherent biases, and then, in tried and trusted contrarian fashion, when this is exposed go after the messenger. There’s piles of evidence that climate change – along with a suite of other other environmental threats – are part of an emormolusly well funded industryof denial. Sharon Beder, Andy Rowell, Dave Helvarg, Sheldon Rampton and many others have done the maths. You refuse to read them. That’s your problem. You don’t want to read them and the other relevant literature because it will shatter your world view. Next thing you’ll say is that the tobacco industry didn’t invest millions to downplay the effects of smoking on human health. Why? Because you didn’t read anything about it. Therefore it didn’t happen. Great strategy that, eh?

    I take your bemused smears with a piunch of salt, on the simple basis that (and this is what you really hate) I am a respected scientist and am, certainly wsell known in my field of endeavor. Dorks like you also routinely ridiclue Paul Ehlrich, Michael Mann, Ed Wilson, Peter Raven, Tom Lovejoy, anf other scientists who have made an impact.

    Its funny how clowns like you and GSW claim that Deltoid is dead but appear to hover around here like vultures and check the threads almost constantly. Do you guys actually have lives? Or are you sad deniers stuck in your own timke warps?

  33. #34 GSW
    October 19, 2012


    Can’t speak for Olaus, but I come back here every now and then for entertainment purposes- You guys defending the indefensible, and seeing “Portents of Doom” in every new piece of “trivia de jour”. Best of all, it’s free! sort of a Conspiracy theory, Comedy Channel combo!

    Best Wishes Jeff!

  34. #35 Jeff Harvey
    October 19, 2012


    Until you read something apart from WUWT and Joanne Nova (is this it?!), then why discuss anything with you? Same goes for your sidekicks.

    John Mashey was correct when he said that deniers hate scientists. They really do. Especially those with some pedigree. The knives come out when scientists stand up to those who have no scientific background at all. The venal hatred. The deniers are left with snarky remarks suggesting that the scientists are ‘too far gone’ (GSW) and hence ignored. This coming from a person who made a number of profoundly error ridden comments about the status of amphibians and polar bear demographics, topics of which he clearly knows nothing. I countered this nonsense, and out come the knives. Why?

    Humiliation. GSW, who has no background in the life sciences, expects his comments to be taken literally. No exceptions. I did this, and it must have hurt. No attempt was made to counter my arguments because he couldn’t. So what was left? AHA! Smears. Ridicule.

    You deniers are so predictable. I’ve been encountering you since my postdoctoal days back in Wisconsin in the 1990s, and nothing has changed. On one website back then some contrarian clown claimed the world could easily sustain a population of one trillion people. When I countered this with arguments that it was absurd, out came the knives. The smears. The insults. Another person suggested that humans had evolved beyond any dependence on biodiversity. Again I responded with science – and again out came the smears and insults.

    GSW, Olaus and Co. are par for the course. Its boring really, because its so easy to humiliate their lack of knowledge, so they have to resort to poems and other forms of attack to soothe their souls.

  35. #36 Olaus Petri
    October 19, 2012

    Dear Jeff, you invent facts. You just did. Again. As usual. For starters, where did you get the idea that I don’t care about the environment? Or that I don’t think that climate changes?

    And Deltoids only spring to life when we throw some bones in your direction. 😉

    @ GSW 🙂

  36. #37 Jeff Harvey
    October 19, 2012

    “I come back here every now and then for entertainment purposes”

    Good for you. I do the same for the sites you tend to find succor in – comedy sites like Nova’s, WUWT, Bishop’s Hill etc. where there isn’t a statured scientist in sight. Just a lot of politically camouflaged mumbo-jumbo. Its been a terrible year for climate change deniers, what with the record-extending heat wave across the US and the shocking minimum in Arctic ice cover. I understand how you right wing free market absolutists need all of the comfort you can get as humans continue to push our planetary life support systems towards the brink.

  37. #38 Jeff Harvey
    October 19, 2012

    Lousey boy,

    Don’t put words in my mouth. Your non-sequiters aren’t funny except to you and a few hangers on. You know exactly what I mean. If you care about the environment, then your version isclearly ‘slacktivist’. Look it up. Perhaps too much for your muddled Swedish brain.

    The only bones you throw in our direction are insults. Glad you like my ‘arm-candy’ though. Ity goes with playing death metal. I need to blast away on my BC Rich after a day being exposed to your kinds of insidious logic.

  38. #39 Vince Whirlwind
    October 19, 2012

    Does Tony Abbott still prefer to go on a radio show run by a liar than he does to go on the ABC?

  39. #40 chek
    October 19, 2012

    “Some observers claim it’s the fastest refreeze since records began”

    And there you have it, laid out in plain site. For all the voluminous text avalanches of blog piffle from the aggregated ranks of the WattsNovaMontford axis, you get an ‘understanding’ of the issue with all the depth of the gold plating on a fairground bauble.

    Deniers don’t actually need to be ‘attacked’, they’re more than capable of proclaiming their own depths of stupid without any assistance.

  40. #41 Lotharsson
    October 19, 2012

    Also, for those of you who follow NH sea ice extent, and attach great significance to records etc, seems to be bouncing back quite nicely after the summer low!

    What, no record?

    Even so, the “bounceback” doesn’t change the dire prognosis.

    But you knew that.

    Or should have – in which case, as chek says:

    Deniers … [are] more than capable of proclaiming their own depths of stupid without any assistance.

    For someone who claims (IIRC) to teach physics you seem remarkably ignorant of the import of volume and trend and mechanism, focusing instead on cherry-picked area metrics.

    It’s also interesting that you and your fellow travellers have all declined to take up any of Bernard J’s bets.

  41. #42 Bernard J.
    October 19, 2012

    Some observers claim it’s the fastest refreeze since records began.

    “[S]ome observers” were preempted about two months ago by scientific commentators with a genuine understanding of physics, and who pointed out the nature of seasonal re-icing from a record low baseline with the current combination of climatic forcings.

    For your future reference, future record low summer Arctic ice parameters are likely to be followed by more record or near-record re-icings. Even a pithed toad could understand why, so it will be entertaining to see whether you can explain it to the thread.

    The stage is yours. Show us what you know.

  42. #43 Wow
    October 19, 2012

    Why does winter always come as such a shock to deniers?

  43. #44 Robert Murphy
    October 19, 2012

    The person who did the calculations for the “fastest refreeze since records began” doesn’t know how to calculate percent increase. They say that an increase of 2.62409 million km^2 over an initial value of 3.36855 million km^2 at the minimum amounts to a 43.8% increase. Read that again. The actual increase is about 78% over the minimum, not 43.8%. They can’t even do 5th grade maths.

    And of course, the percent increase (from the minimum) of sea ice extent at day 31 from the minimum is a trivial number. If the ice had melted completely, any recovery would be infinite! See? No problems with Arctic sea ice! No need to look at long term trends or maybe the volume…

    The deniers are getting desperate.

  44. #45 Jeff Harvey
    October 19, 2012

    “The deniers are getting desperate”

    That’s an understatement…. the so-called recovery doesn’t take into account how thick the new (or old) ice is, or that the biggest concern was that the oldest ice has been lost at remarkably rapid rates.

    But we have to accept the fact that climate change deniers are a metaphor for the ice loss in the Arctic: they will deny, deny, deny and then deny some more as their arguments melt all around them. The only time they will acknowledge that they’ve been wrong all along is at the very last minute, as the water goes over their heads (cue Robert DeNiro as Max Cady in the remake of Cape Fear). Its stunning how they have distorted, spun, weaved, twisted, and dodged the science in their desperate attempts to downplay the quite stunning and frightening rate of summer ice loss in the Arctic. The time scale we are talking about for this event is completely and utterly shocking. Yet the deniers pontificate as if its nothing exceptional.This lot of sordid idiots would have probably though that the impact of the asteroid that brought about the demise of the dinosaurs was nothing exceptional. I’m sure most of them don’t consider the loss of 50% of the world’s tropical wet forestsin the past 100 years to be that serious either. Anything to downplay the human footprint.

  45. #46 Wow
    October 19, 2012

    Short memories these deniers have.

    Not only does winter become an eternal suprise to them every year, but they also forget that they harp on about how the peer reviewed papers are no good for finding “the truth” about AGW because anything “supporting the cause” is accepted, as evidenced by them crowing about a retraction of a paper that agrees that AGW is real and a problem.

    This, of course, is no evidence that their claim about peer review is wrong.

  46. #47 John Mashey
    October 19, 2012

    Some people assign zero credibility to the peer-reviewed literature, and 100% credibility to other things, then pile more on top of unsupported claims. For example, see <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2012/10/17/1943/&quot;?We have to get rid of the MWP for the propagation and enhancement of David Deming’s claim from my favorite dog astrology journal, which found its way into Andrew Montford’s book.

    People may also peruse Brian Sussman’s interview with Deming, revealing Sussman’s expertise in explaining that boreholes are holes in trees for tree-ring studies.

  47. #48 John Mashey
    October 19, 2012
  48. #49 bill
    October 19, 2012

    That ‘borehole’ stuff is priceless! The contrarian cretins that frequent this blog despite constantly claiming its irrelevance have no idea what the joke is, though…

  49. #50 bill
    October 20, 2012

    ‘An Overpeck’ could well become an official unit of tendentious recollection, Your Honour – though this would surely be more justly assigned as ‘A Deming’?

  50. #51 bill
    October 20, 2012

    Stuck in the 20th Century at #Ozfail

    Graham Lloyd channels GWPF shock!

    I repeat: News Limited is a right-wing thinktank whose house journals have been sold to us as newspapers.

  51. #52 Lotharsson
    October 20, 2012

    Part way through this article we find:

    The publication of the virtually unchanged domestic economic forecasts will further pressure Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, who has already been asked to explain why his predictions of ”almost unimaginable” inflation and job losses resulting from the carbon tax have not materialised.

  52. #54 Jeff Harvey
    October 20, 2012

    Potholers clip is priceless. Brilliant stuff; his narrative is devastating to the Dunning-Kruger acolytes out there, several of whom unfortunately dispense their ignorance here.

  53. #55 Chris O'Neill
    October 20, 2012

    Petri dish:

    Blame it on the right wing illuminati, right

    Yes, it must be the right wing illuminati. They have been so successful at shutting down paleoclimatic science (pp 484-497).

  54. #56 Lionel A
    October 20, 2012

    John Mashey,

    I have been looking into William Ruddiman’s work starting with ‘Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum’. I do wish sources were cited more comprehensibly, the bibliography is thin and the Index leaves much to be desired – but that latter is a common feature of books from the Princeton UP as titles by David Archer, Wallace Broecker and Richard Alley are similarly short. All still worth reading though.

    So having had a search around I am finding bits from or associated with Ruddiman including his 2001 paper, with Thomson, and the 2003 and 2005 follow ups. I am now trying to track down the papers that, at first, seemed to undermine his thesis.

    I have come across articles at RealClimate and also this comment of yours at Skeptical Science, but not under its original article sadly:


    I’m not interested in MWP hypothesis by Ruddiman. I’m interested in another one Ruddiman’s famous for: Tibet and Himalayan uplift speeding up igneous rock weathering and creating the late Cenozoic cooling.

    Did you find anything to assist you here?

    Now I am still progressing through ‘Golden Holocaust’, and wonder if you are at all interested in the POV of a once long term smoker, one time RN with Duty Frees, who chose to smoke unfiltered by choice – now I know my instincts were spot on except for the not quitting bit until almost too late.

    As an aside Proctor makes an excellent point about the role of those, such as statisticians and academics who suffer little professional damage from colleagues and almas and how this should change. This may bear quoting at some time in some post somewhere for it has a direct bearing on how the climate change perception is being twisted by some in public forums who should know and behave better.

    Email me on the tobacco bit if you prefer.

  55. #57 Geoff Beacon
    United Kingdom
    October 20, 2012

    The BBC’s Roger Harrabin reports

    “We used to say we had a traditional flood season in winter – now often it’s in summer. This is an integrated problem – there’s no one thing that’s going to solve it. The situation is changing all the time.”

    But scientists present from the Met Office and CEH said not much could be read into the weird weather. Terry Marsh from CEH said: “Rainfall charts show no compelling long-term trend – the annual precipitation table shows lots of variability.”

    Sarah Jackson from the Met Office confirmed that it did not discern any pattern that suggested Man-made climate change was at play in UK rainfall – although if temperatures rise as projected in future, that would lead to warmer air being able to carry more moisture to fall as rain.

    She said that this year’s conditions were partly caused by a move to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which would be likely to lead to more frequent cold, drier winters – like the 1960s – and also wetter summers for 10-20 years.


    Is this correct?

  56. #58 adelady
    October 21, 2012

    Geoff, the big problem here is that it’s a variation in weather.

    We can wait for 30ish years and see if it’s a climate rather than transient weather signal.

    We could then wait a few more years to see if that climate persists.

    Or we could look at rainfall events around the whole globe over the last 10-15 years and see if there’s a detectable change in precipitation patterns now. Even then, we couldn’t be certain that any change thus detected would certainly persist along that trajectory.

    But sensible people would look at rising sea levels and say regardless of whether it persists at this rate or precipitation becomes more or less variable, we’d need to find ways our rivers and stormwater systems could be adjusted to ameliorate the impact on infrastructure.

  57. #59 Wow
    October 21, 2012

    Alternatively, consider this scenario.

    You’re feeling a little unwell. Your stools are sloppy and you’re going to the toilet more often than usual today. Next day too. And the third day.

    But this is entirely possible given the varied and unusual diet of humans.

    But do you wait until you see more extreme symptoms (blood in the water, coughing, dehydration and an inability to eat) before going to the doctor, or do you go early on?

    And if the doctor says “This could be dysentry” do you deny it all and proclaim that you are clean and run a clean home and CANNOT EVER catch dysentry, point to the symptoms that haven’t turned up yet (e.g. “Death”) and say this PROVES it isn’t dysentry and that you don’t need this expensive medical treatment for a disease “produced” by something you can’t see and makes up a miniscule fraction of your body weight?

    The problem is selfish people don’t see it happening to them, therefore they refuse to act because it will cost them (money, prestige, comfort or even pride), but boy will they scream loud when they get hit, demanding OTHERS pay for their disaster.

    New Orleans claimed disaster. Ask Pakistan about floods. That was barely a damp floor. But still claimed a “DISASTER!”.

  58. #60 Olaus Petri
    October 21, 2012

    Wow, when are you going to follow your own advice? Sure you have suffered enough? Time for change?

  59. #61 Lionel A
    October 21, 2012


    Harrabin does not have a particularly good record of portraying an accurate picture from his interviews with climate scientists as demonstrated by this exchange:

    Q&A: Professor Phil Jones in which we find this:

    B [Harrabin] – Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming

    [Jones] Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.

    Of course the denialosphere by not understanding the significance of a ‘95% significance level’ twisted this, and is still doing so as seen with the latest David Rose nonsense, to make the ignoratti believe that there had therefore been no warming over the previous 15 years. This is bad enough but totally ignores the heat capacity of other elements of the climate system especially the oceans. Latent heat not being within the conceptual framework of most.

    When it comes to other not well appreciated factors where humans could have induced the MCO (Medieval Climate Optimum) and the LIA (Little Ice Age), both of which have varied periods attributed to them depending on study and location covered, then take up William Ruddiman as pointed to in my October 20, 2012 post above.

    As somebody as interested in history as science I had long pondered the probable impact of human activities as agriculture and the making of bronze and then iron spread, all activities requiring the cutting of much timber, along with a steadily rising population. That there was a great plague during medieval times did not escape me and I consider that Ruddiman has some strong points by pointing out that the decimation of large communities would have allowed a grow back of forest with the resultant draw down of CO2 causing temperatures to fall.

    The difference between then and now is of course that large populations and the gigantic size of crop-lands, livestock holdings and industry to support our ever increasing, and mostly unnecessary, consumption will have more widespread effects as we are now seeing.

    The difficulty with climate studies and global warming is that meteorology is only one facet of the bigger picture and many specialists have too narrow a focus.

    William Ruddiman in the book cited above makes the excellent point that scientists should ‘give themselves time to think’ and to thoughtfully study more recent papers from scientific disciplines other that in which the scientist is directly involved in. It is well know that such cross-disciplinary thinking often allows a new perspective which leads to an advance in the fund of human knowledge.

    Giving yourself time to think is brought out early in this video by Jerry Mitrovica, Harvard University quoting Nicholas Shackleton.

    Although some have said that the timber felled for agricultural purposes, heating and cooking outweighs that used for construction, including ships, by about ten to one I do wonder about the veracity of that the ships factor given my study of maritime history and the shear scale of tree felling not just of the deciduous hardwoods for structural timbers but of the spruce and pines for masts and for making tar.

    The associated consumption of timber for charcoal production in the casting of iron cannon, and then the forging of structural components to eke out the ever shrinking supply of hardwoods is another factor.

  60. #62 Wow
    October 21, 2012

    What on earth is going on in that soup you have in your cranium, Olap?

    1) If I did follow my own advice, as has become apparent many times before, you will do nothing about it. It won’t change you at all, so why the hell should I do what you demand?

    2) What on earth are you whining about? Are you still pissed off that there’s a nigger in the whitehouse, rather than in your outhouse picking your cotton while you laze about?

  61. #63 Wow
    October 21, 2012

    And note: to do what you demand I’d first have to have some nutbar raving to englush dictionary to work out what the hell it is you’re demanding.

  62. #64 Olaus Petri
    October 21, 2012

    Three miles into Deltoid:



  63. #66 Wow
    October 21, 2012

    Ah, we can always rely on Olap to find the latest in complete arse-bollocks.

  64. #67 Lionel A
    October 21, 2012

    David Rose stirs with some more at the Mail:

    The REALLY inconvenient truths about global warming. Last week we explosively revealed a 16-year ‘pause’ in rising temperatures – triggering a bitter debate. You decide what the real facts are…

    Don’t look there for any facts.

    Why the Mail use an ITN Production of a NASA originated video of warming since 1884 when one could just look directly at the NASA version?

    Oh I did compare them, and just like Pat Michaels recent effort the ITN-Mail have erased the Arctic and the Antarctic too.

    See the NASA version here NASA Finds 2011 Ninth Warmest Year on Record.

    Does Rose and the Mail think that 2012 will show a cooling?

    Another point of deception is that the name of the originator of that cartoon graphic, which Rose describes as a graph, in the first such article ‘Ben Weller’ has vanished in this new reproduction.

    It seems that Rose would not acknowledge real facts if he fell over them.

    …a 16-year ‘pause’ in rising temperatures…‘ Rose and the Mail do not make it so not matter how hard they try to miss quote others and distort the graphics.

    UP U OP.

  65. #68 Lionel A
    October 21, 2012


    Oh I did compare them, and just like Pat Michaels recent effort the ITN-Mail have erased the Arctic and the Antarctic too.

    [Preview please people]

  66. #69 John Mashey
    October 21, 2012

    1) Much research by a bunch of people has happened since 2005.
    See special issue of The Holocene from Aug 2011.

    2) PPP was a popular-audience book, hence light on refs.
    His next one on this is a heavily-ref’d textbook, and I do believe the whole process is a classic example of real science in action.

  67. #70 chek
    October 21, 2012

    Yup, prroven innaccurate reporting by proven suspect reporters in unrespected tabloid newspapers. That’s what deniers are now reduced to ‘citing’.
    Congrats on scoring another own goal, Olap.

  68. #71 Bernard J.
    October 22, 2012

    Lionel A above re Phil Jones.

    I made a comment about Jones over on Skeptical Science which is relevant to your own comment.

    And I’m getting thoroughly sick and tired of reminding Idiot Servants of Denialism about the issue of signal versus noise, but it’s probably worth pointing these Criminals Against Humanity and Biology to the response by Tamino and especially to Ron Broberg’s post at the Whiteboard which is posted in the comments at Tamino’s.

    Sadly, as I observe frequently these days, one can lead a horse to water but one can not make it drink.

    On the matter of deforestation I was recently researching carbon fuels derived from wood, and found that the extent of deforestation for tar, charcoal and wood gas production is much under-recognised. In fact Finland’s entire forest cover appears to be less than 300 years old, reflecting the stupendous deforestation resulting from tar manufacture prior to modern coal and oil use. Similar scales of deforestation occurred across Europe, although perhaps not to the efficiency of removal as occurred in Finland.

  69. #72 Olaus Petri
    October 22, 2012
  70. #73 Wow
    October 22, 2012

    So you’re against Genetically Modified Organisms and Adapton to Climate Change now, Olap?

    Just a few weeks ago you were all over this idea. Now, apparently, you’re against it.

  71. #74 MikeH
    October 22, 2012

    Poor old Putri. Always late with the news. Clive Hamilton excoriated the Liao paper back in April.

  72. #75 Wow
    October 22, 2012

    Well, it’s from a philosophy department, Mike, but the deniers think it is a genuine plan by biologists. Despite that, I’d like to know why the deniers are against GMOs now.

  73. #76 Jeff Harvey
    October 22, 2012

    Notice again how Olaus illustrates his sources for science: generally 100% from denial blogs or right wing media sources. His latest is from a site that should be called the ‘nobrainszone’. Another contrarian blog run by another scientifically illiterate pundit with a libertatrian axe to grind.

    Methinks Olaus spends too much of his time searching through the internet from climate change denial blogs, then proundly cutting-and-pasting their gibberish here.

    Olaus: ever hear of the primary literature? Ever read any of the primary literature? Ever visit the Web of Science search engine and login there? Or are we consigned to your witless non-wisdom gleaned from scientifically illiterate blogs? I recall your fawning admiration of Jonas being partly based on the idea that he allegedly discussed the science. Really? How would you know if you don’t read any of the primary literature? Primary in your view must mean WUTW, Bishop’s Hill, Notrickszone, CA, Junk Science, Climate Depot Joanne Nova and other contrarian sites run by politically distorted scribes.

  74. #77 lord_sidcup
    October 22, 2012

    Petri recycles old non-news. Yawn.

    Meanwhile, Monckton’s PR man is upset that The Gilbralter Chronicle won’t publish his libellous letter:


    “You seem to have a very colonial attitude towards Gibraltarians.

    Australians also, presumably.

  75. #78 StevoR
    October 22, 2012

    @Olaus Petri – October 17, 2012 :

    “I think a paraphrase of the first comment in “Jonas thread” is in order: “Deltoid, the place were climate scare trolls are dead”. Only handful staggering zombies left (not right?) in this dungeon of conspiracies and hatred. – Olaus Petri

    Projection much?

    When it comes to conspiracy theories and hatred anyhow.

    Climate change “scare” trolls & zombies? Really? (shakes head ruefully.) Sad.

    “Can’t be fun being so completely out of fashion. Why not give the blogg a more suitable name? Desertoid perhaps?” – Olaus Petri

    Meh, I like the name just as it is and check it fairly regularly tho’ generally lurking or seeing if Tim Lambert has posted something new and interesting. Time is, sadly, often a problematic factor for my participation here.

    “Could it be that people now understand that there isn’t a well funded right wing conspiracy working against climate science.” – Olaus Petri

    Really? Guess you never heard of the Koch brothers, the Murdoch media or the Heartland Institute then?

    “..and that there is no one that wants to destroy mother earth? Take care!” – Olaus Petri

    You don’t have to believe in some hippy “Mother Earth” so much as just understand the reality and the implications it has for the future – not just for children and later generations but even for how things will develop over our own lifetimes.

    Planet Earth will survive for aeons to come. Us humans and the creatures and plants around us, well, we might all be in for a very bad time and a situation that keeps getting worse not better.

  76. #79 MikeH
    October 22, 2012

    @ lord_sidcup
    I see that Lord Wacko is as batty as ever.

    “Lord Monckton also denounced attempts to silence and discredit him pointing to “a lavishly funded campaign in this respect that cost at least a quarter of a million dollars.”

    After obtaining up to two and a half million hits with a You Tube video of one of his most forceful denouncements of the more ‘sinister’ agenda of the environmental lobby, Lord Monckton said two dozen pages of gibberish under the tag – Monckton video – had been uploaded with search engines having been paid huge sums of money to advance them to the top of the rankings in order to bury his message.”

  77. #80 Lionel A
    October 22, 2012

    Thanks Bernard J. That info on tar or rather pitch tar and charcoal harvesting is most interesting. After all it was for sources such as those from Finland that the Royal Navy assaulted Copenhagen (the irony) to ensure the supply of essential naval materials (masts and rigging) when Napoleon Bonaparte instituted the Continental System of trade embargo aimed at Britain. There was also a ‘scuffle’ around Riga.

    As I may have mentioned, I am very into maritime history, being ex RN – FAA) and have sources describing the naval policy and shipbuilding from Elizabethan times. There is some revealing narrative in some of these that cover the 17th Century (1600s for the OPs of the world) on the effect of temperature swings during that period which some sources include in the LIA.

    The work of William Ruddiman adds perspective on this issue too, especially as this period contains the very dry and hot period leading up to the Great Fire of London and the plague that preceded it. Was that just an indication of the increased fluctuations of a system under stress.

    Now engineers should know a thing or too about such phenomenon too – ever tuned a carburettor and engine timing?

    I did spot your post at SkS and spotted the Tamino post on Rose late last night, I thought that he had not bothered to enter the fray on this one but his input is, as ever, most enlightening. So, I’ll toddle over there now and catch up.

    Potholer also has contributed one of his brilliant debunks.

    BTW Dana at SkS is promising another follow up on the David Rose BS repeat later this week.

  78. #81 Lionel A
    October 22, 2012

    Here is an article about another interesting line of research:

    Sweeping ‘Grand Canyon’ Discovered Beneath Antarctic Ice.

    Now, as indicated in the article, this feature could be the route for rapid glacier movement and also inlet of warmer oceanic waters which would both speed up considerably the loss of Antarctic ice mass. Tamino had one Oh Shit moment recently, could this be another?

    You can explore the contours of the planet, and much more, using this tool: GeoMapApp but it looks like some updating will be required before long.

  79. #82 Olaus Petri
    October 22, 2012

    Glad that you fancied the world saving ideas. 🙂

    A bone to feast on…

  80. #83 Lionel A
    October 22, 2012

    For those who would like to follow other Monckton Gibraltar manoeuvres raised by lord_sidcup and Mike H see here:

    Search results on Monckton at Gib’ Chronicle.

    Monckton throws gauntlet at Gore, ‘debate or get out of Gib’ says environmental sceptic


    Or what, suffer a Monckton Gish Gallop. Monckton is on such a high horse he has lost any perspective, probably the Rocking Horse effect.

  81. #84 David Duff
    October 22, 2012

    Well, I’m not surprised that ‘Chek’ was ‘disappeared’ for describing the ‘Her Majesty’s Met Office’ as ‘second-rate shit’, or words to that effect, but all I did was quote them and I got the blue-pencil treatment, too! I am not amused!

  82. #85 Wow
    October 22, 2012

    No, dai, YOU Are the second rate shit.

    Then again, your delusion is deep, isn’t it.

  83. #86 chek
    October 22, 2012

    Neither can El Duffer keep track of which thread he’s previously commented on. What a case, inept AND stupid.
    I expect he can’t reference his “quotes” as requested there either, hence the simultaneous self-assumed victimisation and bravado here.

  84. #87 Lionel A
    October 22, 2012

    Dana at SkS has a go at the continuing nonsense from David Rose & Judith Curry.

    And, get back in your box Duff until you can post something sensible.

  85. #88 chek
    October 22, 2012

    I’m quite disturbed by the idea of Duffo’s ‘historical talks’.
    If he (and there’s no reason to think otherwise) has the same disdain for primary sources in preparing them as he displays for climate science, who the hell informs his little soirées and their inevitable departures from reality?
    Stormfront, Kellog’s Cornflakes and David Icke?
    Actually, I woudn’t be that surprised.

  86. #89 David Duff
    October 22, 2012

    Ah, Chek, there you are, how nice to see you again. I meant to ask if you had seen any sun spots recently, only they’re in short supply and we need all we can get otherwise we’re going to freeze our wotsits off for the next 30 years. See, that 16 year levelling off might well be the precursor to something serious – and cold!

    Remember – the new ‘warming’ is, er, freezing!

  87. #90 chek
    October 22, 2012

    Dufferboy, the reason you make your nonsensical projections of the future is because you can’t explain the past (including this year’s record arctic melt which you – of course -idiotically ascribe to ‘flatlining temperatures’). The past remember, includes up to 30 second ago. Which doesn’t auger well for your understanding of history, given your weakness and preference for highly suspect sources.

  88. #91 Wow
    October 22, 2012

    Duff can’t explain the past because he’s not been told by Watts et al what to think of it yet.

    For example, Watts doesn’t do error bars. Hence Duffer doesn’t have error bars.

  89. #92 Eli Rabett
    October 23, 2012

    On the contrary, Eli found him there on the floor. Picked the poor fellow up and sent him home to the Misses. She was cross.

  90. #93 Wyvern
    October 23, 2012

    Here’s one for the computer literate on Deltoid….

    I’m trying to define in html an uppercase V with a dot over it. Does anyone know if there’s a predefined entity that provides this symbol this, or if there’s another way of obtaining it?

  91. #94 bill
    October 23, 2012

    One for Duffer – here’s one of your Peers, barking boy.

  92. #95 Lionel A
    October 23, 2012

    Don’t forget to watch out for this one:

    GreedyLyingBastards, World Premier 18-28 October 2012; Palo Alto, East Palo Alto, San Francisco, and Stanford University.

  93. #96 Karen
    October 24, 2012

    Here is a news bite for the climate change cult economist’s.

    Today the Australian Bureau of Statistics released its first inflation data after the introduction of the carbon tax.

    The ABS found that over the past three months:

    Gas prices rose by 14.2 per cent.

    Electricity prices rose by 15.3 per cent – the biggest increase on record.

    Geeeeez, whoooda thunk !!!!

  94. #97 Wow
    October 24, 2012

    “Gas prices rose by 14.2 per cent.

    Electricity prices rose by 15.3 per cent ”

    Yet despite all this, no disaster in the Australian Economy.

    I guess you didn’t think THAT would happen, did you spots?

  95. #98 Lotharsson
    October 24, 2012

    Yet despite all this, no disaster in the Australian Economy.

    And no claim nor evidence is presented regarding how much the carbon price was responsible for the price rise – nor any evidence or analysis of changes in power usage and emissions levels, let alone any understanding of what the carbon price is supposed to do to gas and electricity prices.

    But whodathunkallthat, given that it’s Karen posting at Deltoid…

  96. #99 lord_sidcup
    October 24, 2012

    Monckton seems to be generating a lot of headlines – in Gibraltar:


    Lord Monckton the renowned British politician, environmental sceptic and climate science expert – the IPCC selected him in that capacity for its assessment report for 2013

    Look kow many inaccuracies have been packed into just 25 words. Its almost as though Monckton wrote that himself.

    Nice to see they give Barry Bickmore space to have his say:


    Barry Bickmore, Associate Professor of Geological Sciences at Brigham Young University has issued a challenge to Lord Monckton over his remarks in Gibraltar. On his Blog Professor Bickmore states in a letter to Lord Monckton “I noticed a number of articles in The Gibraltar Chronicle about your most recent attempts to engage Al Gore in a debate about climate change, and I agree that you deserve an answer, although not necessarily from Gore.

    In response, I would like to renew my challenge to debate you about climate change in an online, written format, in which we have time to check our opponent’s sources. I was never given a satisfactory answer as to why you declined the first time, but I am always willing to give you another chance.”

    “Should you accept the challenge, I would be happy to host the debate on my blog, Climate Asylum (http://bbickmore.wordpress.com/ ), or on another site that we could mutually agree upon,” he says.

    “I will certainly understand if you consider me too unimportant a figure to debate. After all, I’m sure that’s what Al Gore thinks of you. But before you decide, consider how you stated your challenge to Al Gore back in 2009. ‘I want you to face me in a debate about global warming, and if you don’t dare, I want you to remain silent about that subject forever, from now on’,” says Professor Bickmore.

  97. #100 chek
    October 24, 2012

    Go Barry!

    And didn’t brave Sir Monckton run away from a previous debate with Peter Hadfield (potholer54) too? Perhaps the Gib Chronicle should be made aware of Sir Monckton’s previous brave retreats.

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