August 2013 Open thread

More thread.

Comments

  1. #1 Al
    Brisbane
    August 1, 2013

    a propos of nothing at all… well, one of my favourite comic strips…

    http://doonesbury.slate.com/strip/archive/2012/2/6

  2. #2 Russell
    August 1, 2013

    It had to happen in one hemisphere or the other- Sharknado, the sequel.

  3. #3 el gordo
    August 1, 2013

    ‘ the best estimate of the Holocene variation in global average temperature is under 1C since the preceding glacial was exited (although with significant uncertainty bands attached).’

    Ah yes, ‘average’, but in northern Europe during the LIA temperatures fell 1.5 C degrees.

  4. #4 adelady
    August 1, 2013

    Let’s assume temperatures eventually pick up by a couple of degrees over the coming decade, any species which can’t survive that modest improvement in climate conditions deserves to go extinct.

    Ok, I know. I’m dragging last month’s garbage to sit at this month’s dinner table. Never mind.

    Is this yet another iteration of ye olde *warmer temperatures will be just like holidaying on a tropical island* brand of bullshit? Because a higher average global temperature is just like a warmer, longer summer’s day and we’d all like that, wouldn’t we, boys and girls.

    I thought that one had died and rotted away. Or perhaps it’s fertilised the growth of some not quite replica that I’ve not seen before.

  5. #5 el gordo
    August 1, 2013

    ‘How would our GDP like a 96% extinction of marine species, as has happened in the past?’

    As I said, life on this planet is precarious. You are clutching at straws Craig.

  6. #6 adelady
    August 1, 2013

    life on this planet is precarious

    So it’s okay to let your nine year old do his imitation tightrope walker routine along the roof capping or to leave your henhouse unlocked after you saw a fox nearby?

    It’s one thing to know that life is short. It’s another thing entirely to deliberately court disaster because you like to pretend you can’t tell the difference between ‘shit happens’ and avoidable consequences. Between inevitable harm, harm avoidance and harm reduction.

    I’m glad I never had you attending a health and safety lecture back when I did such things.

  7. #7 el gordo
    August 1, 2013

    ‘Is this yet another iteration of ye olde *warmer temperatures’

    I remember seeing a terrific moving graph at SS which showed the break points where there is a pause in temperatures for around 30 years.

    For example, 1945-75 paused and 1976 to 2000 was warm again. So I’m suggesting the next 20 years could show a similar pause, then temperatures will increase again.

    This will prove that our Modern Climate Optimum still has someway to run.

    Just sayin’

  8. #8 bill
    August 1, 2013

    Cynical. Bloated. Hack.

  9. #9 el gordo
    August 1, 2013

    ‘Between inevitable harm, harm avoidance and harm reduction.’

    That is Bob Carter’s Plan B… be prepared for any eventuality.

  10. #10 el gordo
    August 1, 2013

    ‘Cynical. Bloated. Hack.’

    Pragmatic. Slim. ex-Hack.

  11. #11 bill
    August 1, 2013

    Sunshine, if you can’t see what a disgrace you are, after your contemtibly ignorant outpourings on the other thread, that’s your problem.

    Certainly fits with being a hack. But it never goes away, does it?

  12. #12 el gordo
    August 1, 2013

    Here’s the escalator I mentioned earlier.

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47

  13. #13 el gordo
    August 1, 2013

    ‘Certainly fits with being a hack’

    Sports writer in the msm last century, but this science gig in the 5th Estate is much more fun.

  14. #14 el gordo
    August 1, 2013

    ‘Sunshine, if you can’t see what a disgrace you are’

    At least I’m not drunk like some of the larrikins around here.

  15. #15 Lionel A
    August 1, 2013

    Yes el gordo @ #11

    Did you study that long enough to notice that the graph morphed into another version? Now what was the red line telling you?

    Shakes head in disbelief!

  16. #16 el gordo
    August 1, 2013

    I fully comprehend that, Lionel, it was warm last century.

  17. #17 Lionel A
    August 1, 2013

    Oh! Boy! And this is not about Buddy Holly:

    I mentioned plague outbreaks in a warming world in last month s thread (el gordo check out conditions at the onset of The Black Death and other plague outbreaks e.g. high London Temp’s 1665-1666) and here is another example of biological dislocation: Food For Thought: Brain-Eating Parasites Thrive As Global Warming Heats Up U.S. Lakes.

    Now el gordo, imagine that you are a Thai fisherman reliant on trade with the locals and visiting tourists, how will you adapt to this?.

  18. #18 Lionel A
    August 1, 2013

    I fully comprehend that,…

    Clearly you don’t!

  19. #19 adelady
    August 1, 2013

    Gawd. The link is not to the bare graphic, but to the article. Of which the first sentence reads ……

    One of the most common misunderstandings amongst climate change “skeptics” is the difference between short-term noise and long-term signal.

    There’s more, but there’s no real need to read it. After all, the person who provided the link clearly didn’t read anything there.

    How on earth someone can overlook that is beyond me. Clearly I have some kind of block in my social skills. Being an adult in my seventh decade, I ought to have developed the routine skill of putting myself in others’ shoes (or mind or whatever) by now. But I feel totally discombobulated faced with this level of whatever-this-is. I presume it’s denial, but watching the process in action is seriously disconcerting.

  20. #20 el gordo
    August 1, 2013

    Sorting out the ‘signal’ from the ‘noise’ is going to be tricky. The Klimatariat could say this is a natural ‘break point’ which has temporarily overwhelmed the signal.

    They might then refer to the ‘sensitivity’ question, but I won’t hold my breath waiting for that miracle to occur.

    The heat in the ocean yarn is alright, we need more studies on the deep ocean … just to settle the argument.

  21. #21 Lionel A
    August 1, 2013

    I presume it’s denial, but watching the process in action is seriously disconcerting.

    Indeed. There is little point in continuing to debate with this level of willful ignorance. Probably best left to fall through the cracks as any sensible lurkers are by now no longer taken in by this numpty.

  22. #22 el gordo
    August 1, 2013

    “The only thing my theory is telling us is that the nature of the greenhouse effect is such, that under the conditions we have here on Earth, the atmosphere will maximize its cooling by keeping its infrared optical depth – or infrared absorption – at a preferred critical value.

    “With relatively simple computations using NOAA’s annual mean temperature, H20 and CO2 time series, I have shown that in the last 61 years, despite a 30 percent increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, the cumulative atmospheric absorption of all greenhouse gases has not been changed and has remained constant. There is no runaway greenhouse effect. The anthropogenic global warming theory is a lie, unless somebody proves otherwise.”

    Ferenic Miskolczi

  23. #23 Karen
    August 1, 2013

    hahahaha, I do enjoy watching the deltards get dragged kicking and screaming across the floor after being pummeled :) hahahaha

    ……LOL…….LOL…….LOL…….ROFLOL…….

    The psychoneurotic rantings are true comedy gold :)

    hehehehehe,

  24. #24 Lionel A
    August 1, 2013

    Karen you are nucking futs and here is your theme tune.

    Both you and el gordo need to join in with whatever your local version of this is for then you will begin to get a grasp of the ecological disasters playing out around us.

    Besides Karen, how are you going to adapt when a large oil spill or climate change invoked disaster happens? How will you survive in your padded cell?

  25. #25 adelady
    August 1, 2013

    Miskiolczi? We are going to relive the last 5 years over and over again are we.

    Before you get too carried away, I suggest you read Dr Roy Spencer’s not very favourable writing about his theories. It’s a fairly longish piece but it’s perfectly understandable. I only needs patience rather than a physics degree.
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/08/comments-on-miskolczi%E2%80%99s-2010-controversial-greenhouse-theory/

    If Miskolczi is correct that the amount of thermal radiation emitted by an object (or layer of the atmosphere) ALWAYS equals the amount absorbed, this necessarily implies something that no one else I know of believes: that INFRARED RADIATIVE FLOWS BETWEEN IR ABSORBERS AND EMITTERS CANNOT CHANGE THEIR TEMPERATURE.

    I strongly suggest a bit of quiet reading time.

  26. #26 adelady
    August 1, 2013

    My fingers are making offerings to the gods of typos again. But I think what got through is perfectly understandable regardless.

  27. #27 Lionel A
    August 1, 2013

    Some more suggested reading on Ferenc Miskolczi.

    Oh! Dear! Will e g never learn? Probably not.

  28. #28 bill
    August 1, 2013

    So, Gordy, SpamKan is now your peer, probably in the laying down sawdust sense. If you’ve won the admiration of the kind of mouth-breathing cretin who cannot bring herself to butt out of this discussion despite being unable to comprehend the distinction between Celsius and Fahrenheit you can scarcely hope to fall any lower.

  29. #29 Karen
    August 1, 2013

    National Geographic map, which shows that there is a lot more Arctic sea ice now than there was 42 years ago.

    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/07/31/arctic-ice-growth-since-1971/

  30. #30 adelady
    August 1, 2013

    Oh for pity’s sake. Arctic ice.

    I note no dates on the link in #28. Here we are with September 10,n end of summer – 1979 compared to 2012.
    http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=10&fy=1979&sm=09&sd=10&sy=2012

  31. #31 bill
    August 1, 2013

    It’s like a Festival of Stupid!

    The whole idea that anyone who’d swallow crud like that would have the temerity to claim to be a ‘skeptic’ is just; well, let’s just say we’ve reached a Twilight Zone beyond the reach of either rationality or satire…

  32. #32 adelady
    August 1, 2013

    Festival of Stupid?

    I feel it’s more like a super slo-mo replay of a whack-a-mole game with a novice toddler.

  33. #33 Lionel A
    August 1, 2013

    To see more engaged in that Festival of Stupid have a read down the comments here and sigh for the many ignorant comments . Since my last view at that Susan Anderson has dropped in some moments to counter that flood of stupid. Slapheads like K and e g should visit the links in the second one of Susan’s posts there.

  34. #34 adelady
    August 1, 2013

    Oh, the humanity.

    That North Pole thread is apparently a North Pole magnet for ice madness. That “submarine surfacing in open water at the North Pole in midwinter” myth is never gonna die apparently. At least wiki has the right picture for the event in March 1958. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:USS_Skate_(SSN-578)_surfaced_in_Arctic_-_1959.jpg

    That’s some very fancy super solid open water right there.

  35. #35 FrankD
    August 1, 2013

    Jesus, that’s a piss-poor effort even by “Steve Goddards” Olympian standards of piss-poverty.

    Karen’s sight must be as weak as her cognitive faculties if she failed to read that the ice margin on that map is labelled “Limit of Multi-Year Ice“.

    By definition, multi-year ice in 2013 is anything that survived 2012, in which case the 2012 minimum is the correct comparison. That’s the white area on the linked map.

    Every time I think Goddard can’t get stupider…he does! But not so stupid that Karen can’t show herself to be even stupider. I think she’s approaching some sort of singularity…

  36. #36 freemike
    usa
    August 1, 2013

    Can anyone comment on the latest from the climate depot article about the recent spate of low temperature records in the USA (1100 or so this week)?
    I know since the 2000’s record high temps have outpaced record lows by 2 to 1 (not that localized records mean that much to the AGW theory) but can anyone give me some more ammo to share on my little corner of the internet.

  37. #37 Lionel A
    August 1, 2013

    That’s some very fancy super solid open water right there.

    And note the dates – early August 1959.

    Never fancied serving in sub’s myself, jet aircraft fuel tanks and working up long jet-pipes was claustrophobic enough.

  38. #38 chek
    August 1, 2013

    Freemike, that’s pretty much all you can do.

    Dr Jennifer Francis gives a presentation here explaining how Arctic amplified warming interferes with the Jetstream, and Rossby waves allow polar air to be drawn south.

    Of course when you’ve got those more numerous record highs being disputed by UHI Wattbots (but they’ll readily believe the record lows recorded on the very same apparatus), the recent cretinous dispute that Arctic melt is not so bad/is nothing new together with a fundamental cultivated failure to comprehend the difference between weather/climate, noise/signal, all allied with Morano’s army of professional liars it’s not easy.

    But as our regulars here know very well, some ignorami seem to prefer if not actually revel in their dumb ignorance.

  39. #39 el gordo
    August 1, 2013

    Thanx Adlady for that link, I’ll have a quiet read after work, but I don’t have much faith in some of Roy’s stuff… him being a luke warmer and intelligent design theorist.

  40. #40 chek
    August 1, 2013

    Lional, thanks for the pointer to Martin Rees’ book. It sounds familiar, but I’ll have to try the library as I either no longer have it, or I’d borrowed (and returned!) it in the first place.

  41. #41 adelady
    August 1, 2013

    freemike

    I’ve always found the Capital Climate blog great for noting US record events. It keeps track of exactly the sort of thing you’re talking about. The link here is
    http://capitalclimate.blogspot.com.au/

  42. #42 bill
    August 1, 2013

    Gordy, even you must understand that the ID stuff is what makes for a luke, not a warmer.

    So you’ve turned the credibility issue on it’s head. This is because think is clearly hard for you.

    What’s actually happened is even one of the few scientists who passes your lot’s immediate prejudice test – and holds beliefs you find comforting precisely because he thinks his God wouldn’t do AGW to us, as ridiculous a belief as a human has ever held, and a mirror to your own – believes your cited source is talking nonsense.

    Geddit?

    It’s not hard, but having to skirt around the not wanting to know things bit will always make think difficult…

  43. #43 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    ‘Geddit?’

    Not really.

    According to the gospel of Judas the fellow who was crucified had a sardonic wit and was from another system.

  44. #44 Craig Thomas
    August 2, 2013

    el gordo
    August 1, 2013

    I fully comprehend that, Lionel, it was warm last century.

    What you seem to be in denial of is the fact that the vast majority of last century was cooler than every year this century so far.

  45. #45 bill
    August 2, 2013

    Ah, so this is all ‘sardonic wit’?! Good thing you’ve told us…

  46. #46 Chris O'Neill
    August 2, 2013

    Just wanted to point out Roy Spencer spreading misinformation about the amount of warming in the Northern hemisphere last century (and hence claiming that it is no warmer than the MWP or RWP): http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/07/senate-epw-hearing-climate-change-its-happened-before/

    His cited chart claims less than 0.5℃ Northern hemisphere warming since 1900 when there was actually around 0.9℃ of warming.

    The man is absolutely shameless.

  47. #47 Chris O'Neill
    August 2, 2013

    For example, 1945-75 paused

    Here’s the escalator I mentioned earlier.

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47

    1945 did not appear on that graph. You’re hallucinating again.

  48. #48 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    ‘…cooler than every year this century so far.’

    Yep, its plateaued and if the pause continues there will undoubtedly be many more opportunities to say that.

  49. #49 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    ‘Ah, so this is all ‘sardonic wit’?’

    I’m being crucified but I’m not JC.

  50. #50 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    ‘1945 did not appear on that graph.’

    No.

  51. #51 Craig Thomas
    August 2, 2013

    el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    ‘…cooler than every year this century so far.’

    Yep, its plateaued and if the pause continues there will undoubtedly be many more opportunities to say that.

    So in fact your previous statement was incorrect: lat century was “cool”. This century is so far “warm”.

    Any ideas, anyone, as to why this century should be so much warmer than last century?

  52. #52 adelady
    August 2, 2013

    ::waves hands excitedly over head::

    Ooh, sir. I know, I know.

    Pick me. Pick meeeeh!

  53. #53 Lotharsson
    August 2, 2013

    …but in northern Europe during the LIA temperatures fell 1.5 C degrees.

    And in the far north of the planet, 4C of global warming will translate into much much more – likely 10C and above.

    You can’t cite local amplification in a region without it cutting both ways (including undermining your own argument) – at least not if you value your intellectual dignity.

    But given some of your recent postings, you clearly don’t.

  54. #54 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    ‘Any ideas, anyone, as to why this century should be so much warmer than last century?’

    Over short time spans of a decade its important to concentrate on trends and its been flat.

    With the jet stream heading in zig zag fashion, closer to the equator, we have to put it down to variable weather …its not in the IPCC bible.

    You may have noticed the UK is experiencing a month long heat wave, while in the US they are feeling a chill and records broken.

    Its not all that unusual.

  55. #55 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    ‘And in the far north of the planet, 4C of global warming will translate into much much more – likely 10C and above.’

    That’s highly alarmist and your figures are exaggerated.

  56. #56 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    Adelady I read through that Spencer paper and found it a little over my head…. being a ‘umble scribe.

    But the comments were interesting, at one point Spencer went head to head with Zagoni.

  57. #57 adelady
    August 2, 2013

    Over short time spans of a decade its important to concentrate on trends and its been flat.

    That’s not what I’ve been told. If I recall correctly from 10 interminable years of Australian drought, we were being told by denier-type people that it’s nothing to worry about. We’ve had droughts “like this” before. The rains will come.
    (Anyone who’s been reduced to keeping a few plants alive by getting up before dawn and staying out after dark with the mosquitoes, hand-watering to keep plants alive beside the already dead looking lawn, knows the meaning of interminable.)

    Now, el optimist supremo is telling us that there’s no problem. Can’t see any heat or any droughts coming. Pull the other one. Bells will ring.

    This so-called “hiatus” is only two or three years strong here. All we know is that we can expect sometime in the next 10 years an el Nino or two. Where I live the only thing we can hope for is that the Indian Ocean keeps its grubby fingers out of it when it comes. When the two systems act in concert, all those people now whining about paying for desal plants will be marching to a different drummer.

  58. #58 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    Wow

    ENSO works outside AGW and this inhospitable island receives drought or flood again and again. Nothing unusual is happening.

    Here’s some hot nooze to amuse yourself.

    http://news.stanford.edu/news/2013/august/climate-change-speed-080113.html

  59. #59 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    Direct from BoM

    Negative Indian Ocean Dipole; ENSO remains neutral
    Issued on Tuesday 30 July 2013.

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status remains neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña), though areas of cooler than normal water have persisted in the eastern tropical Pacific. However, these areas of cooler than normal water are weak and fragmented, and models surveyed by the

    Bureau do not expect these to strengthen into a La Niña event during the austral winter or spring. This means ENSO is likely to remain neutral over the coming months.
    In the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has remained below −0.4 °C since mid-May, indicating a negative IOD event is currently underway.

    The majority of climate models continue this negative IOD event through the austral winter and spring. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above-average rainfall over southern Australia, while over parts of northern Australia it increases the chance of higher humidity.

  60. #60 adelady
    August 2, 2013

    Amuse myself?

    As the great J McEnroe would say – you cannot be serious! I have children likely to still be living in the 2070s and their children long after that. 5 or 6 degrees by the end of the century is not joke material.

    You found the link, not me ….

    temperatures over the northern hemisphere will tip 5-6 degrees C warmer than today’s averages. In this case, the hottest summer of the last 20 years becomes the new annual norm.

    Talk about hell on earth.

  61. #61 Lotharsson
    August 2, 2013

    Over short time spans of a decade its important to concentrate on trends and its been flat.

    Er, no.

    What’s important is NOT to draw trend conclusions from time periods where noise overwhelms signal of interest – such as “a decade” with respect to “global average temperature”.

    If you really want to pay attention to global temperatures over periods as short as a decade, you need to remove some of the non-signal influences, as was done here. I’ve previously pointed you to that analysis, and you have ignored it.

    Why?

    Because the trend is clearly not flat, and you flat-out reject evidence that your claims are wrong.

  62. #62 Lotharsson
    August 2, 2013

    That’s highly alarmist and your figures are exaggerated.

    Is this sardonic humour?

    Because if that were actually correct, how would you know? You show no signs of drawing valid conclusions from the full body of evidence, and many signs of working backwards from your position to some attempt, no matter how poor, to “justify” it by cherry-picking and misrepresenting the evidence…

  63. #63 Lotharsson
    August 2, 2013

    Over short time spans of a decade its important to concentrate on trends and its been flat.

    BTW, notice how el gordo implicitly rewrites the question here to avoid answering it. The question was not about the trend over a decade. It was about “this century” versus the last century.

    In other words, if we compare the 13 years or so of this century to (say) an equivalent time period at the end of the last, we’re talking 25+ years. What does that trend look like over 25 years? Anyone except el gordo and Karen surprised that it goes against el gordo’s position? Anyone?

  64. #64 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    ‘you need to remove some of the non-signal influences,’

    That’s classic, remove the noise to see the signal better.

  65. #65 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    Loth, with 97% of scientists agreeing that its been flat (Michael Mann for instance) who am I to doubt them.

    Should I have more faith in the alarmist cranks around here?

  66. #66 chameleon
    August 2, 2013

    Test?

  67. #67 Lionel A
    August 2, 2013

    chek

    Lional, thanks for the pointer to Martin Rees’ book. It sounds familiar

    Don’t bust a gut over finding a copy, I have been speed browsing mine and have yet to find anything of exactly the nature you described.

    That is not saying that the book is not worth reading for there are many pointers to other matters that such as el gordo would find revealing, but I fear that his mention of JC and Judas indicates that his mind is closed to rational debate.

  68. #68 Lionel A
    August 2, 2013

    From that revealing article of Stanford linked to by e g at #57

    Consider the 2.5 billion people who lack access to modern energy resources. This energy poverty means they lack fundamental benefits for illumination, cooking and transportation, and they’re more susceptible to extreme weather disasters. Increased energy access will improve their quality of life – and in some cases their chances of survival – but will increase global energy consumption and possibly hasten warming.

    You think that we would find this amusing, for similar reasons to adelady I find your flippancy here offensive in the extreme e g. Do you not realise the implications for millions of our fellow planetary travelers of where we are heading ?

    The quote above is probably revealing about why the PTB are encouraging the masses to sleepwalk, being drugged by the latest must have gizmos, celebrity gossip in those puerile weekly coloured rags, the hype that is the soccer norm etc, etc, sidetracked by whipped up political scandal and the long saga of the sociopathic banking sector. This all distracting from the dangers of the quietly (so they hoped) rolled out fracking expansion.

    e g is a fine example of the Morano-Limbaugh-Hannity-O’Reilly (and their UK and Australian counterparts) school of thought. If their really is a GOD then these types should start behaving better for it would be them going to hell in a hand cart.

  69. #69 chek
    August 2, 2013

    That’s classic, remove the noise to see the signal better.

    Actually it is ‘classic’ in the truest sense, in many science and engineering fields as is explained here. Hell, if you have kids interested in music systems even they’ll know what it is.

    But somehow I expect as a professed hack journo with likely zero technical expertise in anything, it’s more of your ignorance fuelled ‘sarcasm’.

  70. #70 chek
    August 2, 2013

    Loth, with 97% of scientists agreeing that its been flat

    Somehow I think that what you and Mike Mann understand the pronoun ‘it’ to mean are different things.

  71. #71 bill
    August 2, 2013

    Yep, this one really, really thinks he’s clever.

    Don’t reckon many other here do, though.

    But that’s alright, as it’s only what Gordy thinks that counts. Oh, and maybe some of the other cynical smartarses in the gallery…

    Ever wondered why journalists aren’t much-loved, Gordy?

  72. #72 Lotharsson
    August 2, 2013

    That’s classic, remove the noise to see the signal better.

    As opposed to leave the noise in, when you know how to remove it?

    You really are crap at this “thinking” business.

    Loth, with 97% of scientists agreeing that its been flat (Michael Mann for instance) who am I to doubt them.

    I doubt you’ll find any indication that it’s 97% of scientists, climate scientists or otherwise…so chalk that up as another in a long list of falsehoods.

    And I would pay good money to see you pitch your multitude of positions to Michael Mann – especially the implications you are trying to draw from your claim that “it’s flat”.

  73. #73 Lotharsson
    August 2, 2013

    (That’s assuming, of course, that Mann is feeling like providing a teaching moment rather than blowing you off immediately as a time-wasting crank…)

  74. #74 Wow
    August 2, 2013

    The trend proposed of 0.17C per decade is not disproved by the last 13, 15 or 17 years trend.

  75. #76 Turboblocke
    August 2, 2013

    Can anyone tell me when the warming stopped?
    http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130731.html

  76. #77 Turboblocke
    August 2, 2013

    E.G. at 54
    ‘And in the far north of the planet, 4C of global warming will translate into much much more – likely 10C and above.’

    That’s highly alarmist and your figures are exaggerated.
    Nope polar amplification is well known.
    Look at the Zonal mean for Antarctica in the bottom plot here: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=6&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=06&year1=2013&year2=2013&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg

    And for the Arctic in Winter here: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=6&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=01&year1=2013&year2=2013&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg

  77. #78 Turboblocke
    August 2, 2013
  78. #79 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    ‘Do you not realise the implications for millions of our fellow planetary travelers of where we are heading ?’

    The main thing to understand is that nothing unusual is happening with our climate and the warm weather of last century has been beneficial for the growth of humanity.

    Equally important in this discussion is the MWP, which was warmer than our Modern Climate Optimum and populations boomed, then during the LIA population growth stalled around the world, aided and abetted by hunger, disease and war.

    As I mentioned earlier, we are better equipped now with mass communication and transport to handle a few degrees of warming or cooling over the coming century.

  79. #80 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    ‘The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing.’ –James Hansen et al., 15 January 2013

  80. #81 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    ‘Can anyone tell me when the warming stopped?’

    End of last century, around 1998.

  81. #82 Rattus Norvegicus
    August 2, 2013

    Adelady,

    That’s not the correct picture. This is the correct photo for the first surfacing on March 17, 1959. Note that that is before sunrise in the arctic.

  82. #83 Turboblocke
    August 2, 2013

    End of last century, around 1998.
    Wrong: guess you didn’t look at the animation.

    I have to laugh: in #78 el gordo implies that the warming stopped in 2003 and in #79 he states 1998. Not often you see a flipflop that fast.

  83. #84 Turboblocke
    August 2, 2013

    BTW e.g at #78, here’s what Hansen also had to say on Jan 15: http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/719139main_2012_GISTEMP_summary.pdf
    Although it is
    too early to know whether the maximum of the present solar cycle has been reached, the recent prolonged
    solar minimum assures that there is a recent downward trend in decadal solar irradiance, which may be a
    decrease of the order of 0.1 W/m
    2
    .

    So much for it being the sun.

  84. #85 Turboblocke
    August 2, 2013

    And Hansen says more about the “standstill”: Indeed, the current stand-still of the 5-year running mean global temperature may be largely a
    consequence of the fact that the first half of the past 10 years had predominately El Nino conditions,
    while the second half had predominately La Nina conditions(Nino index in Fig. 1). Comparing the
    global temperature at the time of the most recent three La Ninas(1999-2000, 2008, and 2011-2012), it is
    apparent that global temperature has continued to rise between recent years of comparable tropical
    temperature, indeed, at a rate of warming similar to that of the previous three decades. We conclude that
    background global warming is continuing, consistent with the known planetary energy imbalance, even
    though it is likely that the slowdown in climate forcing growth rate contributed to the recent apparent
    standstill in global temperature.

  85. #86 chek
    August 2, 2013

    I can’t recall exactly, but didn’t Denial Depot or someone just as illustrious suggest those US (Uncle Sam) Navy subs were specially armoured for the coming ice age?

    An ice age being just what those pre-dawn launchin’ winter offensive luvvin’ commies would just love, and NORAD still tracks that Santa character every Xmas Just to be on the safe side.

  86. #87 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    The evidence is mounting that the Younger Dryas was caused by a cosmic bombardment.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23536567

    Truly alarming.

  87. #88 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    ‘Not often you see a flipflop that fast.’

    The consensus is 16 years, with the 1998 ENSO spike obviously not effecting the trend.

  88. #89 chek
    August 2, 2013

    El Fattiosi @ #88

    You’ll haver to provide a link, as your brain damaged understandings make no sense.

    You just can’t get climate trends in that time period. It’s not possible, despite what despatches from crankland are telling you, so what ‘trend’ are you wittering on about?.

  89. #90 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    Obviously we have to wait 30 years to see a definite trend, but in the meantime it does appear to be flat.

    And for the benefit of alarmist ratbags, this is what the UNEP web page originally said about climate change refugees, which failed to materialise.

    ‘Fifty million climate refugees by 2010. Today we find a world of asymmetric development, unsustainable natural resource use, and continued rural and urban poverty. There is general agreement about the current global environmental and development crisis. It is also known that the consequences of these global changes have the most devastating impacts on the poorest, who historically have had limited entitlements and opportunities for growth.’

  90. #91 chek
    August 2, 2013

    El Fatsunami, what size tyres do you use for your goalposts?

  91. #92 el gordo
    August 2, 2013

    Don’t know where they get the 16 years from, its closer to 13 years.

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/global-land-ocean-mntp-anom/201101-201112.png

  92. #93 adelady
    August 3, 2013

    Obviously we have to wait 30 years to see a definite trend, but in the meantime it does appear to be flat.

    Why wait thirty years?

    We’ve already got a hundred and thirty years to go by.

  93. #94 adelady
    August 3, 2013

    You can all see the blockquote . Can’t you?

  94. #96 Lotharsson
    August 3, 2013

    The main thing to understand is that nothing unusual is happening with our climate…

    Clap harder and you might be able to convince yourself that’s true. But it doesn’t work on most other people, you know.

    As I mentioned earlier, we are better equipped now with mass communication and transport to handle a few degrees of warming or cooling over the coming century.

    You are truly and deliberately pig-ignorant, aren’t you? You can’t eat communications and transport.

  95. #97 Lotharsson
    August 3, 2013

    Why wait thirty years?

    We’ve already got a hundred and thirty years to go by.

    Because he doesn’t like what the 130 years of data tell him, and he’s hoping that it will change (or it won’t matter to him personally) 30 years hence?

  96. #98 el gordo
    August 3, 2013

    ‘You can’t eat communications and transport.’

    You may not be aware that the Chinese are setting up agricultural enterprises in Africa and Australia…. this is their Plan B for climate change.

    Fast transport will be an integral part of the plan to feed people in situ, to avoid 50 million climate change refugees landing on our shores.

    The Met Office graph takes us back further than 130 years, do try and keep up.

    Looking further down the track, with the help of the paleo team, we can see the MWP was slightly warmer than now.

    http://www.econ.ohio-state.edu/jhm/AGW/Loehle/Fig2color.gif

  97. #99 el gordo
    August 3, 2013

    Keep in mind the amazing strides humanity has made over the past 200 years in technological advancement. The tyranny of distance will soon be a thing of the past.

    Imagine the top end of Australia covered in agriculture and feeding a world disrupted by climate change. Large satellite towns running on renewables and connected to anywhere in the country ….. very, very fast.

    http://www.wired.com/autopia/2013/07/elon-musk-hyperloop/

  98. #100 el gordo
    August 3, 2013

    Sea ice back to average parameters.

    http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

    Didn’t fat Al say the Arctic would be ice free by now?

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