September 2013 Open Thread

The thread, there is more.

Comments

  1. #1 el gordo
    September 8, 2013

    September has arrived, hooray.

  2. #2 el gordo
    September 8, 2013

    ‘But it’s good to see you admitting that he’s dishonest about it ‘

    Abbott is not being dishonest, he’s passionate about the idea, but ultimately he his pragmatic and when he realises CO2 doesn’t cause global warming ….. he will drop DAP off the end of a cliff and demob the green army.

  3. #3 Luke
    September 8, 2013

    El Gordo – you realise Nova, Spencer and Lindzen all think that CO2 causes some level of global warming. You’re in a very small club there.

  4. #4 BBD
    September 8, 2013

    That’s more like it, Luke!

    Please do keep critiquing the physics denial! Every little helps!

    :-)

  5. #5 el gordo
    September 8, 2013

    That is true Luke, the Denialati really are a disgrace.

  6. #6 el gordo
    September 8, 2013

    On the other page Luke put up a link on Antarctica, which showed a high accumulation of snow in the 1370s and later in the 1610s.

    The LIA does appear to be universal, unless someone wants to make the argument that a build up of snow in Antarctica is due to warming.

    Anyway, methinks its a quiet sun which makes the world a cooler place and has nought to do with AGW.

    http://www.co2science.org/articles/V6/N4/C3.php

  7. #7 Luke
    September 8, 2013

    I don’t have a problem with the LIA and MWP being universal. Of course the MWP had some pretty horrid climate in parts too – we could talk about those SW USA mega-droughts.

    http://water.columbia.edu/files/2011/11/Seager2009Megadroughts.pdf

  8. #8 BBD
    September 8, 2013

    The LIA does appear to be universal, unless someone wants to make the argument that a build up of snow in Antarctica is due to warming.

    Snow, especially in the Antarctic, which is largely thermally isolated by the Antarctic circumpolar current, is tricky.

    More water vapour in a warmer atmosphere could result in more snow in the Antarctic. And then there’s hemispheric antiphased temperature. Cold up North can mean warm down South. This because of the way the global thermohaline ocean circulation works.

    This is why quote-mining and hyperfocus on regions are the preferred tactics of fake sceptics who neither understand the science nor respect the norms of intellectual inquiry.

  9. #9 Luke
    September 8, 2013

    And to that end here’s what you should be most concerned about http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~jnorris/sio209.fa11/Johanson2009.pdf

    Observations show that the Hadley cell has widened by about 2–5 degrees since 1979. This widening and the
    concomitant poleward displacement of the subtropical dry zones may be accompanied by large-scale drying
    near 30N and 30S. Such drying poses a risk to inhabitants of these regions who are accustomed to established
    rainfall patterns.

  10. #10 Luke
    September 8, 2013

    And broadly yuh – increased snow in Antarctica due to a warming world – yep

  11. #11 BBD
    September 8, 2013

    I don’t have a problem with the LIA and MWP being universal.

    We must be careful what we say! “Universal” is potentially misleading. Lots of regional climate change over many centuries with a broad cooling trend spanning the last millennium, but no global and synchronous MWP or LIA. See PAGES-2k. Not Steve McIntyre. Science in journals, not misinformation by partisan bloggers.

  12. #12 BBD
    September 8, 2013

    #9 Yes, we’ve had this discussion already. I pointed out at the time that Zhou et al. (2011) supports Johanson & Fu.

    Drought bad. Food good.

    Agreed.

  13. #13 el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    Good links Luke and I have no dispute with either.

  14. #14 el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    ‘These results support findings of some of the previous studies that showed strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle and expansion of the Hadley cell that are potentially related to the recent global warming trends.’

    ‘Potentially’ is a big word and holds out the promise of further funding.

  15. #15 el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    ‘There is an excellent understanding now that the multi-year historical droughts in the West are frequently linked to cool La Nin ̃a-like sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific El Nin ̃o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region…

    Cook et al

  16. #16 Craig Thomas
    September 9, 2013

    Anyway, methinks its a quiet sun which makes the world a cooler place and has nought to do with AGW.

    http://www.co2science.org/articles/V6/N4/C3.php

    Good, let’s test that idea:
    – The Sun is quiet now.
    – Is it cool now?
    Answer: No. What you “methinks”, is thus shown to be wrong.

    Which is hardly surprising as you obtained that thought from a crank blog.

    You would do much better to get accurate information from places that make it available, namely,
    http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/
    http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate.aspx

  17. #17 Berendaneke
    September 9, 2013

    Craig Thomas troll

    Did you intend to introduce yourself as climate troll????

    :lol:
    :lol:
    :lol:
    :lol:

  18. #18 Berendaneke
    September 9, 2013

    BBD troll, what an credible bullshit again:

    We must be careful what we say! “Universal” is potentially misleading. Lots of regional climate change over many centuries with a broad cooling trend spanning the last millennium, but no global and synchronous MWP or LIA. See PAGES-2k. Not Steve McIntyre. Science in journals, not misinformation by partisan bloggers.

    :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
    :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:
    :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
    :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:

  19. #19 Berendaneke
    September 9, 2013

    I am happy that the Oz electorate has mandated my friend Tony Abbott to finish the climate war and abolish all CO2 insanities from public life in Australia.

    :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll:
    :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll:
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    :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll:
    :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll:
    :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll: :lol: :roll:

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  20. #20 el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    ‘Is it cool now?’

    Its cooler than it ought to be with CO2 forcing.

  21. #21 el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    Craig I accept that CO2 levels are high and growing at a phenomenal rate, also that Australia has been warm this year.

    There appears to be a simple correlation, but its unsound.

  22. #22 Jeff Harvey
    September 9, 2013

    “El Gordo – you realise Nova, Spencer and Lindzen all think that CO2 causes some level of global warming”

    How charitable of Luke. And including Nova as if she somehow has relevant expertise in anything??? Given Nova’s shoddy scientific credentials, the next thing he’ll be writing is to say that his grandma, a couple of local drunks and his next door neighbor also believe that C02 causes some level of global warming. After all, they have about as much to say as Nova, so why not dredge up anybody?

    You are a real hoot, Luke. Keep it up.

  23. #23 Craig Thomas
    September 9, 2013

    el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    ‘Is it cool now?’

    Its cooler than it ought to be with CO2 forcing.

    Last La Nina was the warmest La Nina ever.

    It isn’t cool, it is in fact warm.

    What it’s “ought to be” doesn’t exclude expected variability. What it *does* exclude is the kind of “coolness” wrongly predicted by McLean, Lindzen, etc… based on their faulty low-sensitivity models.
    The current warmth having proven their models wrong, is it too much to expect that we no longer hear from these people with their provenly wrong ideas any more?

  24. #24 Craig Thomas
    September 9, 2013

    Jeff Harvey
    September 9, 2013

    “El Gordo – you realise Nova, Spencer and Lindzen all think that CO2 causes some level of global warming”

    How charitable of Luke. And including Nova as if she somehow has relevant expertise in anything???

    I read what Luke wrote as meaning, “Even crank-loon Jo Nova doesn’t deny the Greenhouse Effect, El Gordo.”
    First time I’ve thought a Luke intervention was useful.

  25. #25 Berendaneke
    September 9, 2013

    Wonderful recovery of Arctc sea ice extent!! Have a look:

    September 8 values:
    2007: 4194521
    2008: 4503523
    2009: 5151359
    2010: 4769046
    2011: 4287925
    2012: 3300795
    2013: 4861800

    What a nice coincidence with current political down-turning of climate scoundrels and greenpissers.

    :lol: :cool: :lol: :cool: :lol: :cool: :lol: :cool: :lol: :cool:

  26. #26 Berendaneke
    September 9, 2013

    I confess here openly that I don’t like James Hansen and his GISS, as the climate delusionists there draw the excellent name and reputation of NASA into ugly dirt. There are many astronauts, among them the world famous moon astronauts who hate to be offended by green lefty eco fundamentalists in NASA GISS who have nothing to to with aeronautics. What a shame for NASA to host such mean pseudoscientists like Hansen, Schmidt, etc.

    :evil: :twisted: :evil: :twisted: :evil: :twisted: :evil: :twisted:

  27. #27 Sou
    http://blog.hotwhopper.com/
    September 9, 2013

    Keep an eye on Indi (my electorate). Anti-science shadow Minister for Science Sophie Mirabella might just get the boot. Fingers crossed! Ugly Sophie was in a “safe” seat with a 9% margin. Independent Cathy McGowan ran a brilliant campaign and is currently slightly ahead. It will be close.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/indi/

  28. #28 el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    ‘Last La Nina was the warmest La Nina ever.’

    Link?

  29. #29 Karen
    September 9, 2013

    “(Reuters) – The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which forecasters had predicted would be more active than normal, has turned out to be something of a dud so far as an unusual calm hangs over the tropics.
    As the season heads into the historic peak for activity, it may even enter the record books as marking the quietest start to any Atlantic hurricane season in decades.’

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/07/us-weather-hurricanes-idUSBRE9860AY20130907

    The failed prediction list and the sea ice are steadily growing :)

  30. #30 el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    Sceptics and the Denialati disagree on this minor matter of CO2 but its no big deal, in a couple of years I may be forced to concede that this harmless trace gas might create a little warming.

    Waiting … waiting … for our cooling tipping point, which would prove beyond doubt that CO2 plays an insignificant part in climate change and is innocent of all charges laid against it.

  31. #31 Karen
    September 9, 2013

    “Waiting … waiting … for our cooling tipping point,”

    Hi el, you know that when it happens it will be blamed on co2, lol

  32. #32 el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    AGW is unfalsifiable, so I wouldn’t put it past them.

  33. #33 Luke
    September 9, 2013

    “What surprises me is to see “Luke” continuing to post as late as 8 September. I had assumed his/their commission was to expire on 7 September.”

    Mate when you’re independently wealthy with some quality coal industry shares – I can be here 24 x 7 if needed.

  34. #34 Luke
    September 9, 2013

    El Gordo – pretty well any serious contrarian (not some slayer fuckhead) would give you 1C for 2x CO2. This is seen to be unremarkable and well accepted.

  35. #35 BBD
    September 9, 2013

    #34

    1C/2xCO2 is already *falsified* by the 0.8C from ~280ppm -> 400ppm!

    “Serious” is not the word I would use to describe that claim! Not least since it doesn’t work even if you imagine the climate system to be in near equilibrium to ~400ppm!

    But it isn’t. Not even close.

    :-)

  36. #36 Lionel A
    September 9, 2013

    Mate when you’re independently wealthy with some quality coal industry shares – I can be here 24 x 7 if needed.

    So, Gina does tickle your fancy, now there is a surprise.

  37. #37 Lionel A
    September 9, 2013

    el gordolocks did evacuate in #28 above,

    ‘Last La Nina was the warmest La Nina ever.’

    Link?

    .

    Lookee here: 2012 Global Temps Rank in Top 10 Hottest On Record

  38. #38 Berendaneke
    September 9, 2013

    @BBD ridiculous

    1C/2xCO2 is already *falsified* by the 0.8C from ~280ppm -> 400ppm!

    What utter idiocy!!! You mentally ill person attribute a deceivingly calculated 0.8C increase entirely to a CO2 increase. You idiot should look at IPPC TAR to see what even the IPCC admitted as “low level of scientific understanding”! Read, you mental dwarf without knowledge and abstain from excrenenting further lies, LIAR!!!!!

  39. #39 Luke
    September 9, 2013

    BBD – pity the full 20th century temperature rise isn’t attributed to CO2 – try harder !

  40. #40 el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    From Lionel’s link.

    ‘However, 2012 wound up besting 2011 for the warmest La Niña year on record. In addition, global average ocean temperatures also set a record for the warmest La Niña year.’

  41. #41 Jeff Harvey
    September 9, 2013

    “I can be here 24 x 7 if needed”

    You’re not needed, except in your own mind,. So get lost.

  42. #42 Karen
    September 9, 2013

    CO2 Lunatics, profiteers and getting in bed with the devil.

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/09/06/2522511/clive-hamilton-anthropocene/

  43. #43 Jeff Harvey
    September 9, 2013

    From our resident psychopath:

    “Wonderful recovery of Arctic sea ice extent!”

    What about ice thickness? Oh, let’s not go down there….

  44. #44 el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    ‘pretty well any serious contrarian’

    In 18 months time I expect to become a serious contrarian, until then I’ll hang with the Denialati.

  45. #45 Jeff Harvey
    September 9, 2013

    Karen, you have the wrong link. Try Exxon Secrets. There’s where the real profiteers come into play. And this corporate giant is far more of an appropriate metaphor for the devil. Too bad you’re too dumb to realize it.

  46. #46 BBD
    September 9, 2013

    BBD – pity the full 20th century temperature rise isn’t attributed to CO2 – try harder !

    Really? What else was it?

  47. #47 Lotharsson
    September 9, 2013

    AGW is unfalsifiable, so I wouldn’t put it past them.

    Mendacious troll ignores the several ways we’ve pointed out that it can be falsified several times in the past.

    News at 11.

  48. #48 BBD
    September 9, 2013

    Read, you mental dwarf without knowledge and abstain from excrenenting further lies, LIAR!!!!!

    Freddy, you cannot even understand a simple graph and repeated, clear explanations of your stupid errors.

    So away and fuck yourself!

    :-)

  49. #50 el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    ‘Last La Nina was the warmest La Nina ever.’

    That is extremely doubtful, ENSO has been around for simply ever and is unrelated to AGW, so if it was the warmest La Nina this century …..it had nothing to do with AGW.

    NOAA was trying it on.

  50. #51 BBD
    September 9, 2013

    so if it was the warmest La Nina this century …..it had nothing to do with AGW.

    A particularly stupid assertion, Gordy!

  51. #52 Karen
    September 9, 2013

    Lionel and JeFfErY, I take it that you both are quite happy about the planned geoengineering experiments.

  52. #53 Karen
    September 9, 2013

    Your exxon secrets rubbish is no big deal, everyone has to eat.

    How about you guys throw up a few links showing political donations from renewable energy companies, and what about the intimate links between climate science, green groups, the UN, ect.
    I suppose they don’t need to be paid because they only drink the gravy. lol

  53. #54 Luke
    September 9, 2013

    Jeff – I’m driven on by your encouragement and I look forward to your interminable off-topic rants.

  54. #55 Karen
    September 9, 2013

    Lionel and JeFfErY, I take it that you both are quite happy about the people, corporations and the military industrial complex being in the geoengineering.

  55. #56 Karen
    September 9, 2013

    Lionel and JeFfErY, I take it that you both are quite happy about being a pair of dysfunctional birth canals.

  56. #57 Karen
    September 9, 2013

    Lionel and JeFfErY, I assume that you think that is ok for arseholes to fuck with our atmosphere if it is written at thinkprogress,

  57. #58 Karen
    September 9, 2013

    wind generator kill birds and injures Foo fighter

    http://www.adguk-blog.com/2013/07/ufo-hits-wind-turbine-still-mystery.html

    lol

  58. #59 Dave R
    September 9, 2013

    Re the latest rosegate episode, has anyone asked Prof. Tsonis whether the quote attributed to him is genuine?

    Professor Anastasios Tsonis, of the University of Wisconsin, said: “We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/10294082/Global-warming-No-actually-were-cooling-claim-scientists.html

    The first assertion is obviously false and the second is ripe for a betting challenge.

    But given Rose’s form, I’d be surprised if it isn’t a fabrication, and if it is then a public statement from Tsonis would be useful for when people bring it up.

  59. #60 chek
    September 9, 2013

    Tsonis’ co-author Kyle Swanson – surprise – doesn’t see it the way Rose reports it.

  60. #61 Berendaneke
    September 9, 2013

    Breaking news: very cold South Pole: no sea level rise

    [quote]
    Current Weather Conditions:
    Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, Antarctica

    (NZSP) 90-00S 00-00E 2835M
    Conditions at

    2013.09.09 1150 UTC
    Wind from the NE (050 degrees) at 20 MPH (17 KT) gusting to 29 MPH (25 KT)
    Visibility less than 1 mile
    Sky conditions mostly cloudy
    Weather Blowing snow
    Freezing fog
    Temperature -65 F (-54 C)
    Windchill -106 F (-77 C)
    Pressure (altimeter) 28.05 in. Hg (949 hPa)

    [end quote]

    No ice melting on the South Pole, because too cold, therefore no sea level rise.

    hahaha, Doltoids, bite your toes in your anger, hahaha

    @Jeff: Biodiversity is not affected in Antarctica by ” Global Warming”, you moron

  61. #62 Dave R
    September 9, 2013

    Thanks chek. I do remember that, but this looks like it’s being presented as something he’s said recently. It seems to me that either way (real quote or not) it would be a good place to apply some heat. I haven’t really been keeping up lately so wasn’t sure if he’s already responded to it or been asked.

  62. #63 BBD
    September 9, 2013

    Freddy

    You are an ignorant fuck!

    The mechanism by which the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is destabilised isn’t surface melting!

    It is subsurface melting by advected warm water which causes embayed ice shelf collapse which in turn speeds the outflow rate of major glaciers draining the ice sheet. At the same time, seawater begins to penetrate further beneath the edge of the WAIS, which is a marine ice sheet grounded below sea level on a retrograde grounding slope. It is therefore highly unstable. This is why the WAIS has collapsed many times in the past (the last time around was the Eemian interglacial when it was the major contributor to at least 5m increase in mean sea level).

    You clearly know absolutely NOTHING about this topic!

    So why not take the hint and fuck off? You are just a ranting loon and we’ve all had enough of your stupid blether.

  63. #64 BBD
    September 9, 2013

    Dave R

    I find it hard to believe that Tsonis actually said “cooling trend”. I’m sure we’ve all read S&T and all know about the step-change climate shift hypothesis, but nowhere IIRC do the authors propose a cooling trend. So the most likely outcome is that Rose is lying. He did this recently to James Annan, who extracted an apology.

  64. #65 Lionel A
    September 9, 2013

    Karen

    #52
    #55
    #56
    and
    #57

    Your record is stuck. But even then that is the first time it has been quite so obvious.

  65. #66 Jeff Harvey
    September 9, 2013

    “@Jeff: Biodiversity is not affected in Antarctica by ” Global Warming”, you moron”

    Please supply some peer-reviewed articles showing this, Berendaneke. Of course you can’t. Like all the other garbage you spew out here, its off the top of your psycohpathic little head.

  66. #67 chek
    September 9, 2013

    As if it needs pointing out, ranting right wing loon and all-round knucklehead Freddyfred couldn’t be more wrong regarding biological impacts of AGW in the Antarctic. But then, we knew that.

    “The Scotia Sea/Antarctic Peninsula region has been experiencing alterations due to rapid climatic change
    that may exceed the natural abilities of many organisms to cope, especially without the food-back loops in
    place brought by a naturally structured foodweb. Particularly in the marine environment, which is predicted
    to go through profound changes as a result of climate change, adaptation strategies need to be adopted.
    In this region, the foodweb is dominated by euphausids, and in particular Antarctic krill (Euphausia
    superba), which support the energetic demands of most of the abundant predator populations still remaining
    (Croxall et al., 1988) and also a commercial fishery. The life history and demography of Antarctic krill are
    intimately tied to seasonal sea ice conditions, climate, and the physical forcing of ocean currents. Key
    spawning, recruitment and nursery areas of krill are located along the Western Antarctic Peninsula; these
    krill are then advected northward into the Scotia Sea (Constable et al., 2003). The climate in this area is
    warming rapidly (Ducklow 2007, Montes-Hugo et al. 2009), and as a result, the extent and duration of winter sea ice are being reduced (Parkinson 2002; Stammerjohn et al. 2009)”.

  67. #68 Craig Thomas
    September 9, 2013

    el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    ‘Last La Nina was the warmest La Nina ever.’

    That is extremely doubtful, ENSO has been around for simply ever and is unrelated to AGW, so if it was the warmest La Nina this century …..it had nothing to do with AGW.

    Come on El Gordo, do try to think:
    ENSO represents variability: El Nino=hot, La Nina=Cool.
    and yet,
    http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Jan-OctGlobalLandOceanTemperatureAnomalies1950to2012.jpg
    2012 was hotter than any previous La Nina year, AND hotter than any EL Nino year prior to 1998.

    There is a signal there, that is overriding the natural variation we see from the ENSO cycle: a strong warming signal.

    As we know that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and as we know there is an energy imbalance between solar radiation coming into the system, and radiation leaving the system for space, we know what is causing that signal: the increase in CO2 from 280ppm top 400ppm over the last 150 years.

    400ppm CO2 is entirely novel in the history of our species on this planet.

  68. #69 chek
    September 9, 2013

    Quite.

    C’mon Gordon. Put two and two together and stick it to the Carbon Barons who’ll destroy indiscriminately to live in a shiny house paid for by morons who think it’s the natural order.

  69. #70 Jeff Harvey
    September 9, 2013
  70. #71 el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    ‘Despite the original forecasts, major climate research centres now accept that there has been a “pause” in global warming since 1997.’

    Hate media.

  71. #72 el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    “About half of the events … reveal compelling evidence that human-caused change was a [contributing] factor,” said NOAA National Climatic Data Center Director Thomas Karl’

    Still clutching at straws, making shit up to fit the meme. Did I mention that CO2 is a harmless trace gas?

  72. #73 chek
    September 9, 2013

    Did I mention that CO2 is a harmless trace gas?

    Yes you did, Gordon.
    You’re nothing if not an brainless empty barrel with a few meaningless crank memes rattling around inside.

  73. #74 el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    ENSO is a major CC driver and with a cool IPO in place it stands to reason that there will be few El Nino over the next 15 years. This will keep temperatures cool.

  74. #75 chek
    September 9, 2013

    Let me correct #73:
    You’re nothing if not a brainless empty barrel with a few meaningless crank memes rattling around inside who learns nothing.

    You’ve been shown cycles neither add or subtract but it just won’t sink in will it? Desperately clinging to your unfounded notions and crank ideas is all you can do.

  75. #76 el gordo
    September 10, 2013

    ‘…who learns nothing.’

    We have much to learn about the complex processes involved.

  76. #77 el gordo
    September 10, 2013

    Contrarian Blogs

    ‘A network of 171 individual blogs is identified, with three blogs in particular found to be the most central: Climate Audit, JoNova and Watts Up With That.

    ‘These blogs predominantly focus on the scientific element of the climate debate, providing either a direct scientifically-based challenge to mainstream climate science, or a critique of the conduct of the climate science system, and appear to be less preoccupied with other types of scepticism that are prevalent in the wider public debate such as ideologically or values-motivated scepticism.

    ‘It is possible that these central blogs in particular are not only acting as translators between scientific research and lay audiences, but, in their reinterpretation of existing climate science knowledge claims, are filling a void by opening up climate science to those who may have been previously unengaged by the mainstream knowledge process and, importantly, acting themselves as public sites of alternative expertise for a climate sceptical audience.

    Amelia Sharmanab

  77. #78 Craig Thomas
    September 10, 2013

    el gordo
    September 9, 2013

    ENSO is a major CC driver and with a cool IPO in place it stands to reason that there will be few El Nino over the next 15 years. This will keep temperatures cool.

    No, El Gordo, ENSO doesn’t drive global climate change, ENSO is a cycle (or a nest of cycles, even) and that cycle does not explain the current warming trend.

  78. #79 Lotharsson
    September 10, 2013

    ENSO is a major CC driver…

    Says el gordo for the umpteenth time, after having been corrected umpteen – 1 times. The same applies to most of his other naked assertions. What’s the point of saying it again, el gordo, unless either (a) you think if you repeat it often enough it might suddenly become true, or (b) you like the intellectual humiliation of making public declaration of bollocks?

    Go back to your jail thread, el gordo. Anyone who wants to can reiterate why you are wrong … and wrong … and wrong … and wrong … and wrong … over there.

  79. #80 el gordo
    September 10, 2013

    So let me get this right… ENSO is insignificant and AGW is all, no doubt about it we are fkn doomed. Why didn’t someone warn me?

  80. #81 Berendaneke
    September 10, 2013

    Doltoid eco fundamentalists and CO2 addicts, there is one fundamental problem which post-normal ‘climatology’ cannot overcome:

    It is conceivable that the greenhouse gas-induced changes, if in effect they have occurred, are too small to be measured.

    Basta!

  81. #82 Nick
    September 10, 2013

    #77…. the assessment by Sharmanab that the three identified blogs are “less preoccupied [than other contrarian blogs] with…ideologically or values-motivated scepticism” is just nonsense,simply bullshit….thanks for the giggle.

  82. #83 Lotharsson
    September 10, 2013

    I haven’t seen anyone making the unqualified statement “ENSO is insignificant”.

    They say in the context of discussions about climate change that ENSO isn’t driving the long term warming trend. They also say that it is not driving any significant trend in the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (which is driving climate change, including producing that long term warming trend as very basic physics indicates that it must).

    This has been explained over and over in any number of good resources on the basics of climate science, and quite often directly to you on this site. Your repetition in the face of this knowledge looks to be pathological.

  83. #84 Nick
    September 10, 2013

    #81 ….says the clown who added 144 emoticons to one of his offerings back up the page…what a fool you are!

  84. #85 Lotharsson
    September 10, 2013

    …thanks for the giggle.

    The suggestion that they “…predominantly focus on the scientific element of the climate debate…” was worth a LOL here.

    And the final paragraph was simply ROFLworthy due to its cluelessness and internal inconsistency.

  85. #86 el gordo
    September 10, 2013

    Deltoid focusses more on the science than politics.

    Luke, if you’re there, could you give me a couple of paragraphs on the part ENSO, SAM and STR play in AGW?

  86. #87 Nick
    September 10, 2013

    #85, I followed a link using Sharmanab’s name, and find some really naive nonsense “Mapping the Climate Sceptical Blogosphere”,with abstract beginning:

    “While mainstream scientific knowledge production has been extensively examined in the academic literature, comparatively little is known about alternative networks of scientific knowledge production.”

    Hmm, does she really think that pseudo-sceptic blogs can reasonably be described as being involved in “scientific knowledge production” ?? Jesus wept!

  87. #88 Craig Thomas
    September 10, 2013

    el gordo
    September 10, 2013

    Deltoid focusses more on the science than politics.

    Luke, if you’re there, could you give me a couple of paragraphs on the part ENSO, SAM and STR play in AGW?

    El Gordo, ENSO is a cycle – it is a process which dows no of itself create energy or otherwise add energy to the system.
    The energy being added to the system is the energy coming from the Sun.

    I wonder if you have the potential to understand that a process that doesn’t create energy, but just moves energy about within the system, is thus by definition not a driver of global warming?

  88. #89 Luke
    September 10, 2013

    Whether AGW influences ENSO is a debate in itself. There has been a recent discussion on trend to a central Pacific form of ENSO called El Nino Modoki. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/nature08316.html http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/sbp/journal_articles/Power_Smith_GRL_2007.pdf
    But ….. http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/sbp/journal_articles/GW_the_SOI_Power_Kocuiba_CD_2010.pdf

    Betrand Timbal (BoM) in the SEACI project looking at southern MDB rainfall decline found an interaction with the strength (not location) of the sub-tropical ridge. STRi has increased in line with global mean temperature. And the behaviour only occurred in GCMs with increased greenhouse forcing. So STRi increase may be a symptom of AGW changing global circulation patterns. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3406/abstract

    http://www.cawcr.gov.au/publications/technicalreports/CTR_026.pdf

    Stratospheric ozone depletion and tropospheric greenhouse increases in models reproduce the positive phase of the southern annular mode (SAM) which again has rainfall implications for Australia. But again this is hypothesised to be a feature of the combined anthropogenic impacts.

    But for the kicker ! http://2risk.wordpress.com/2013/06/21/sam-enso-divorce/

  89. #90 Luke
    September 10, 2013

    In short ENSO, STRi and SAM all appear to be influenced by anthropogenic forcings – tropospheric greenhouse gases SAM also by stratospheric ozone depletion.

    The widening on the sub-tropics an additional concern.

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008JCLI2620.1

  90. #91 el gordo
    September 10, 2013

    ‘…is thus by definition not a driver of global warming?’

    No, but I’m convinced its a driver of climate change.

  91. #92 Nick
    September 10, 2013

    #90, yes, of course you would be…that is worth a LOL!

  92. #93 el gordo
    September 10, 2013

    ‘The rise in global average temperature over the last century has halted since roughly the year 2000, despite the fact that the release of CO2 into the atmosphere is still increasing.

    ‘It is suggested here that this interruption has been caused by the suspension of the near linear (+ 0.5 °C/100 years or 0.05 °C/10 years) temperature increase over the last two centuries, due to recovery from the Little Ice Age, by a superposed multi-decadal oscillation of a 0.2 °C amplitude and a 50~60 year period, which reached its positive peak in about the year 2000—a halting similar to those that occurred around 1880 and 1940.

    ‘Because both the near linear change and the multi-decadal oscillation are likely to be natural changes (the recovery from the Little Ice Age (LIA) and an oscillation related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), respectively), they must be carefully subtracted from temperature data before estimating the effects of CO2.’

    Syun-Ichi Akasofu

  93. #94 BBD
    September 10, 2013

    Gordy

    Did you know that the editor of the journal that published Akosofu’s latest rubbish resigned over it?

    Did you know that?

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/brierly-resignation-climate-akasofu.html“>Read his full statement here.

    Akasofu’s argument is unphysical and unsupported. In other words, he is flat-out wrong.

  94. #95 BBD
    September 10, 2013

    Climate is not a bouncing ball Gordy. There is no “recovery” from the LIA. Climate change is forced. C20th climate change is increasingly forced by the rising RF from CO2.

    “Recovery” from the LIA is magical thinking. Akasofu doesn’t know what he is talking about. He should stick to auroras.

  95. #96 adelady
    September 10, 2013

    No, but I’m convinced its a driver of climate change.

    Climate variations are usually related to cyclical phenomena like seasons, ENSO, IOD and similar events that cause local or widespread or global changes in temperatures and precipitation.

    Climate change, in this case AGW but it could just as easily be Milankovitch forcing, is driven by fairly simple physics changing the total energy content of the ocean-atmosphere system. Climate change does not mean that climate variations involving the redistribution of energy within the systems cease – it just changes the baselines around which the variations occur.

    Remember that anthropogenic climate change could just as easily have a cooling effect as a warming effect. If technology required us to dig huge holes or blow up mountains to expose, fracture and aerosolise CO2 absorbing minerals rather than to extract and to burn CO2 producing fossils, we would have accelerated the gradual cooling of our interrupted progress towards the next glaciation. As it happens, we’ve probably skipped that one unless we start digging-huge-holes-blowing-up-mountains of CO2 absorbing minerals on a large scale.

  96. #97 Bernard J.
    September 10, 2013

    Fatso.

    Do you know when the last time was that a statistically-significant amount of ‘global’ warming was detectable in a 13-year period?

    For bonus points, do you know how many times since 1970 there have been statistically-identifiable ‘global’ warming events that were detectable within a 13-year period?

  97. #98 el gordo
    September 10, 2013

    ‘Did you know that the editor of the journal that published Akosofu’s latest rubbish resigned over it?’

    Yes, Watts is running the story, but its hardly rubbish. That’s your value judgement.

  98. #99 BBD
    September 10, 2013

    That’s your value judgement.

    No, it isn’t. I outlined why above. If you actually bothered to read Chris Brierly’s statement, you would see that it’s not *his* value judgement either:

    For example:

    The paper also states that the upward trend is solely a recovery from the Little Ice Age, rather than having a strong anthropogenic component. This assertion was not tested in the paper and would have been falsified if it had been. A response shall be published in the same journal doing just that. The reason I resigned from the editorial board was not this false assertion, but rather the poor application of the scientific method in the paper (i.e. not testing the proposed hypotheses).

    My emphasis.

    Your intellectual laziness is tiresome, Gordy.

  99. #100 BBD
    September 10, 2013

    One must therefore conclude that this paper does not pass five of the criteria for a distinction at the MSc level, and is therefore logically not of sufficient quality to deserve publication. It appears that neither the three reviewers nor the handling editor of Climate reached the same conclusion. This has made me realize that the journal does not hold the standards that I feel should be strived for in science, leading to my resignation from the editorial board.

    That should be “Brierley” btw.

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