September 2013 Open Thread

The thread, there is more.

Comments

  1. #1 Karen
    September 19, 2013

    “His new study (Zhang) shows that stronger westerly winds swirling around the South Pole can explain 80 percent of the increase in Antarctic sea ice volume in the past three decades.”

    lol……….. now this…

    “Antarctic weather patterns in August were unusual. Contrary to a 50-year trend towards stronger westerly wind flow—a pattern associated with both ozone loss and increased heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere—August 2013 saw a period of very low westerly wind speed across the continent.” http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    quick quick putz the goal post back over here, :)

    BBD you need tastier bait than the Sunspot meme…. lol

  2. #2 Nick
    September 19, 2013

    #1, Don’t be a nong,Kaz!
    Zhang looks at thirty years of winters data and how winds shape winter ice evolution…you pick one month, the height of winter, when most of the area has been achieved…LOL indeed.

  3. #3 Stu 2
    September 19, 2013

    Nick.
    I objected to your original comments as they were rather misleading. We now appear to be mostly in agreement.
    However:
    Factors improved because the drought had broken.
    They were definitely NOT improved by the behaviour of the managers at SHL , NOW etc.
    Think about what you written here. If their behaviour had NO INFLUENCE on the flooding how could this comment of yours be valid?
    ——————————————————————————
    In the end, some factors improved: storages gained water, the lower river wetlands got served…….?
    ————————————————————————-
    And despite your assertions otherwise; SHL et al did indeed have egg on their faces. Not because of the mud slinging by people like Marohasy but because they failed to heed the warnings about those anomalies in the operating licences.
    No one cares much about all the media speculation over whether SHL and NOW etc influenced the actual height of the crisis over the space of a few days. That was not the issue for most people who were trying to get those anomalies fixed.

  4. #4 Nick
    September 19, 2013

    #97,Stu2 ,further to 12/2010 flood on the Murrumbidgee, the contribution to base flow of the river from water used to generate power and honour the RAR DSIV payback sent down the Tumut system works out a 3 to 4 gigalitres/day. Assuming this is all transmitted through Blowering each day [i.e. not stored there], what does this mean at Wagga? At flood peak 6/12/2010 about 150GL passed W. that day. At most 4GL of that was SH inter-basin transferred… Not entirely unrealistically, because we do not know how long water takes to reach Wagga, and I don’t know whether SH even used the Tumut generating system on the relevant day, the minimum contribution on the flood peak day could have been zero….

  5. #5 Karen
    September 19, 2013

    How about this new ninja hot water that has evolved down at the Antarctic, it has awesome selective ice melting abilities. It can sneak right on past the sea ice and like a one billion thermal lances it attack’s the land based ice and reduces the the land ice mass, (that has not reduced yet) :)

    lol……..the crazy alarmist shite they try to spin….. :)

  6. #6 Stu 2
    September 19, 2013

    Nick.
    I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you posted # 4 before you read my comment @#3.
    I will check later today to see if that was perhaps the case?

  7. #7 Stu 2
    September 19, 2013

    Nick.
    I have decided I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you posted@ # 4 before you read my comment @#3.
    I will check later today to see if that was perhaps the case?

  8. #8 Stu 2
    September 19, 2013

    Sorry,
    That only needed to be said once.

  9. #9 Berendaneke
    September 19, 2013

    BREAKING NEWS ++++++++ BREAKING NEWS ++++++++ BREAKING NEWS ++++++++

    Arctic Sea Ice Minimum 2013 dramatically high:

    The Record Minimum 2013 was achieved on September 16.

    Scientific Results:

    The September 16 values (km2) of the last 7 years:

    2007: 4070114

    2008: 4516471

    2009: 5125931

    2010: 4684325

    2011: 4420667

    2012: 3177455

    2013: 4824927

    Scientific Discussion:
    The presented arctic sea ice extent data show a substantial increase of arctic sea ice extent during the last seven years. Only 2009 showed a higher arctic sea ice extent in the last seven years than the 2013 value. This trend if increasing arctic sea ice extent is in good agreement with the slightly decreasing global temperatures during the last 16 years. Humanity might therefore consider measures to counter a new cooling period.

    Political discussion:
    Why on Earth the fuck have idiotic mainstream journalists not alarmed the public of this new cooling trend in the arctic ocean. WHY THE FUCK?????

    :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

    :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

    :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

    BREAKING NEWS ++++++++ BREAKING NEWS ++++++++ BREAKING NEWS ++++++++

  10. #10 Berendaneke
    September 19, 2013

    Correction : Message improvement!!!

    ++++++++ BREAKING NEWS ++++++++ BREAKING NEWS ++++++++ BREAKING NEWS

    Arctic Sea Ice Minimum 2013 dramatically high:

    The Record Minimum 2013 was achieved on September 16.

    Scientific Results:

    The September 16 values (km2) of the last 7 years:

    2007: 4070114

    2008: 4516471

    2009: 5125931

    2010: 4684325

    2011: 4420667

    2012: 3177455

    2013: 4824927

    Scientific Discussion:
    The presented arctic sea ice extent data show a substantial increase of arctic sea ice extent during the last seven years. Only 2009 showed a higher arctic sea ice extent in the last seven years than the 2013 value. This trend of increasing arctic sea ice extent is in good agreement with the slightly decreasing global temperatures during the last 16 years. Humanity might therefore consider measures to counter a new cooling period.

    Political discussion:
    Why on Earth the fuck have idiotic mainstream journalists not alarmed the public of this new cooling trend in the arctic ocean. WHY THE FUCK?????

    Look at these idiotic CAGW leper islanders and mainstream journalists:

    :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

    :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

    :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

    ++++++++ BREAKING NEWS ++++++++ BREAKING NEWS ++++++++ BREAKING NEWS

  11. #11 Nick
    September 19, 2013

    #3 The sound of goal posts shifting… you started off accusing SHL of dumping water for no benefit into an already flooded system. That’s rubbish, because the operational contribution of transferred water to the Murrumbidgee during flood is trivial. In dry times it is significant…not in wet. The benefits are more than just base flow, though: power and income.

    The benefits of continued operation were real, the downside imaginary. The three floods in the Tumut valley in 2010 were not exacerbated by SH/NOW…in fact for the durations of the first two, NOW completely halted discharge from Blowering, and in the third they minimised it. There was no HARM to the flooding system, only benefit in terms of infrastructure in the Tumut valley. Farmers lost a lot of fencing; it would have been worse with higher peaks. While they were preventing harm they were generating power, and thus income, for the stakeholders and their own operating costs, while reducing GHG production below what it would have been in absence of the scheme. Benefits everywhere! Flooding at Gundagai and downstream was a lower Tumut and whole of Murrumbidgee catchment problem that SH could not control.

    “It would have been far more useful if that water had stayed in Eucumbene where there was room to store it” you complained. I’m wondering if you realise how the scheme works. If Eucumbene had stopped sending water down the Tumut generating cascade, then that is power and income lost. SH has to fund its costs…how is this achieved if power production is halted? How long was SH supposed to just reduce their output, and store water ? All because of a perception problem?

    People got the wrong end of the stick,and are determined to hold on to it. People overestimated SH’s ability to influence a flood and they forgot about SH’s benefits in toto.

    SH was in discussions to amend the operating license from April 2010,the end of the water year… maybe progress was slow, who knows, but after the floods a more flexible arrangement was achieved.

  12. #12 Nick
    September 19, 2013

    #11 To put it more clearly: ‘People overestimated SH’s generating flow as a contribution to flood flow and etc…’

  13. #13 bill
    September 19, 2013

    Ah, little mike; mark ‘unread’.

  14. #14 rhwombat
    September 19, 2013

    Oh good. Lil’mike had another faeculent tanty. It’s sort of cute in a Fabulous Furry Freaks/Capt Goodvibe- like way. I’m still not sure whether he’s a wasted, ex-gunny-bait, aggie dropout, or a cornsyrup-stupified obeast in his Mom’s basement, working his way through the pile of old Reader’s Digest and vintage flesh mags – but The Pig of Steel, he’s not. Your turn, dropkick.

  15. #15 chek
    September 19, 2013

    “Fabulous Furry Freaks”
    Funnily enough rhw, quickly scanning li’ll mike’s latest expulsion, it crossed my mind I haven’t seen the phrase ‘agit-prop’ since about the mid ’70′s.
    Maybe you’re right and his basement is a time capsule.

  16. #16 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    #15 rhw

    In fine style!

  17. #17 adelady
    September 19, 2013

    Well wherever that basement is, it ain’t Australia.

    No Australian has referred to “Australian ranchers” in the history of ever.

  18. #18 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    Sunspot gets so much wrongness into this it’s almost artful:

    How about this new ninja hot water that has evolved down at the Antarctic, it has awesome selective ice melting abilities. It can sneak right on past the sea ice and like a one billion thermal lances it attack’s the land based ice and reduces the the land ice mass, (that has not reduced yet)

    How many times Sunny?

    Strengthening zonal windspeeds are increasing the rate of upwelling around the coast. Warm water is being drawn up from below the surface layer. This is what is increasing the rate of basal melt. It mainly happens during the summer when – gee! – the sea ice has gone. Oh, and despite your stupid lies, net ice mass loss from Antarctica/GIS is increasing and will continue to do so. Be sure to look at the pretty pictures in the link:

    The results of the IMBIE 2012 experiments showed that the agreement between mass balance estimates from radar and laser altimetry, gravimetry and the input-output method is good in all ice sheet regions.

    In combining the datasets we generated a 19 year time series of ice sheet mass balance from 1992 to 2011. Over this period, we found that the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets together lost mass that equated to a global rise in sea level of 11.1 +/- 3.8 millimetres.

    Examining the ice sheet regions individually we show that the Greenland, West Antarctic and Antarctic ice sheets have all lost mass over the past two decades, whilst the East Antarctic ice sheet has undergone a slight snowfall-driven growth. The Greenland ice sheet has lost the largest mass and accounts for about two-thirds of the combined ice sheet loss over the study period. In Antarctica, the largest mass losses have occurred in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, despite occupying just 4% of the total ice sheet area, the Antarctic Peninsula has accounted for around 25% of the Antarctic mass losses.

    We created charts of mass change (see figure below) for each geographical region, and these confirm known signals of imbalance. Mass loss from the Greenland, West Antarctic and Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheets has increase over time. In Greenland, rates of mass loss were modest during the 1990’s but have sharply accelerated since then due to episodes of ice acceleration (Rignot and Kanagaratnam, 2006; Joughin et al.,2004) and decreased surface mass balance (van den Broeke et al.,2009; Ettema et al., 2009). The rate of mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet increased substantially over the study period, with losses occurring mainly due to glacier acceleration in the Amundsen Sea Sector. The Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet was close to balance in the 1990’s, but since then significant mass losses have occurred as a result of ice shelf collapse (Rott et al., 1996;De Angelis and Skvarca, 2003) and calving front retreat (Cook et al., 2005; Pritchard et al.,2009). Overall our time series of mass change show that the combined losses from Greenland and Antarctica have increased over time and the ice sheets are now losing almost three times as much ice as they were in the early 1990’s.

  19. #19 Stu 2
    September 19, 2013

    No Nick @#11 &@#12
    —————————————————————————-.
    “To put it more clearly: ‘People overestimated SH’s generating flow as a contribution to flood flow and etc…’
    —————————————————————————–
    The problem was NOT associated with SHL’s normal RAR and/or their normal power operations. We love the Snowy Scheme in this part of the world and most who live here would recommend more hydro schemes were developed.
    I would guess from reading posts from other people like Jeff Harvey that would not be a particularly popular recommendation here at deltoid even though you are correct and it does indeed reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.
    The problem was the extra water that was being released from Eucumbene on both sides of the system as PAYBACK for water that was held back from everything except critical supplies in the depth of the drought.
    It was a wasteful anomaly in the licence requirements that STILL EXISTS although some of it has been resolved since the 2010 flood but ONLY on the Murrumbidgee side of the system.
    To be very clear, the problem was the EXTRA water over and above the normal requirements of the system, including environmental requirements and SHL power production, and it was being released into an already OVERFUL system BEFORE and AFTER that very short period of time in December when a real crisis hit.
    Furthermore, Marohasy was NOT a major player in any of this. She did NOT create the problem. The flooding events merely allowed the media and Marohasy to dramatise the problem.
    I agree that in that short timeframe there was little that could have been done and that when it all got critical that everyone involved did everything they could.
    It doesn’t change the fact that over 2000GL of STORED water was wasted for no good reason and for no good outcomes.
    it doesn’t change the fact that they were repeatedly warned about this problem.
    Also, the maximum that the Tumut river can cope with without causing damage is approx 8GL/ per day. So that extra 3 to 4 that was coming through at that time is far more significant for that particular section of the system than you have indicated.
    There are no shifting goal posts Nick.
    As I said at the beginning, your original comment missed the point and gave undue recognition to Marohasy.
    That water should indeed have stayed in Eucumbene and it then could have been used when the downstream systems could have successfully managed it for triple bottom line outcomes AND when SHL could get maximum benefit from power production, which is why the system was built that way in the first place.

  20. #20 bill
    September 19, 2013

    Well, adelady, yes they have. ;-)

    Explaining Goodvibes to one of the spacier inhabitants of The Land That Irony Forgot… nup, not gonna happen.

    Yes indeed, RHW nails it. Of course mikey thinks he’s normal, because The Republicans, and we’re the outsider freaks, but in the golden words of The Pig himself ‘mutants are strange, but not half as strange as the ones who think they’re normal…’

  21. #21 bill
    September 19, 2013
  22. #22 Olaus Petri
    September 19, 2013

    The gravy train Down has problems. No steam. Is Australia’s war on science flannery over? ;-)

    I’ll bet it’s the coal-itions fault?

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/tim-flannery-sacked-climate-commission-dismantled-by-coalition/story-fni0xqrb-1226722779566

  23. #23 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    Mike

    Unpleasant lies about people’s private lives can only backfire horribly (see eg Luke). Best keep the vicious humour at the political/societal level. Then we can all play.

  24. #24 FrankD
    September 19, 2013

    Boris doesn’t seem to know the difference between extent, area and volume. Or statistical significance, for that matter.

    Surprising from a senior pubished scientist like him.

  25. #25 bill
    September 19, 2013

    Is mike still here?

  26. #26 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    #26

    Perhaps existential confusion over identity has interfered with the otherwise crystalline logical processes of his highly-trained scientific mind. But we shouldn’t speak of such things aloud.

    Naming calls.

  27. #27 Karen
    September 19, 2013

    “is it even remotely possible that “mom” keeps a sharp eye on you when you’re around the kids. ”

    I think he would be more of a ‘petsophile’ judging by his wombat fucking avitar…………….

  28. #28 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    #19

  29. #29 Karen
    September 19, 2013

    “On Tuesday, a group of 50 international scientists released a comprehensive new report on the science of climate change that concluded that evidence now leans against global warming resulting from human-related greenhouse gas emissions.”

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/09/16/PLS-HOLD-FOR-TUESDAY-9-17-AFTER-11AM-ET-Climate-Study-Evidence-Leans-Against-Human-Caused-Global-Warming

  30. #30 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    The fucking Heartland-sponsored bollocks-fest that is the NIPCC! You stupid arse. Even by your standards, this is a joke link. A lying right-wing ideologue pushing energy industry sponsored pseudoscience… FFS!

    Get a clue, Sunny!

    * * *

    #19.

  31. #31 Nick
    September 19, 2013

    #20, Stu2 you need to get some facts straight:

    The problem, expressed in the local and state media,and furthered by Marohasy, was a perception that SH operations was exacerbating floods in December 2010.

    Regardless of your intention to broaden your complaint to ‘water releases were wasteful’ in the months leading up to the floods or not, that problem as I express above was what I was criticizing Marohasy over when I first mentioned her. OK?

    Marohasy of course broadened her line of attack to include the ‘wasteful’ meme, especially when her specific charge of culpability became unsupportable. A familiar tactic. She never gave a sourced figure.

    “2000 GL of water wasted” What is your source for this figure and how is it calculated? Are you talking about the whole water year 4/2010 to 4/2011? It is frankly ill-informed to suggest this figure. Let me show why.

    The basins were coming out of drought in 2010. At the end of May 2010, Blowering was 30% full,and Hume Dam 20%. So any RAR sent down the rivers from April 2010 [start water year] was filling dams,not being wasted. By start November 2010 both dams were full to everyone’s delight. That’s an extra 3500GL, only part of which was RAR. That’s not wasted water. The RAR component of that can be estimated at about 1200GL, about 600GL per catchment. This was obviously released to downstream storage without any foreknowledge of just how wet it was going to get,so it can hardly be described as wasteful at all. It was stored!

    Over the period May to December,all the SH mountain storages accumulated water Eucumbene,Jindabyne and Tantangara gained 700GL between them. And Burrinjuck filled,too. So a depleted system rapidly gained around 5000GL…then it kept raining. last six months of 2010 turned out to be the wettest on record for the catchment.

    I really don’t understand the ’2000GL’ wasted assertion at all. There is no basis for it. SH sent perhaps 200 GL down each river in the two wet months when the dams were full. Maybe 400-450GL in total. As I said before, it was not wasted because it generated power and needed revenue. It did not exacerbate flooding. Yes the irrigation dams were full by then. Sure, it wasn’t needed by irrigators. But 2000GL wasted is an exaggeration, and disregards the half year when there was no flood in sight.

  32. #32 rhwombat
    September 19, 2013

    #24.

    Disappointingly humourless, lil’mike. Your ex-Gunny would have been embarrassed by the lack of creativity and emotional involvement, as would your psychiatrist, Eng. Lit. TA and fantasy partner, though probably less colourfully.

    As the esteemed prophet Lotharsson says: it’s always projection – though I would add that, in lil’mike, the Freddiot, Spamspot, fLuke, the Scandinavian Troll Collective (Breivik Division) and the regrettably released denizens of the Deltoid dungeon (Fatso, Brangelina, Jonarse, et alia), this trait, is necessarily coupled with the self-awareness of a particularly recently shat cestode proglotid.

    I’m willing to persist with the blog-coaching if you are, lil’mike, but please try to keep the humourless jarhead in the closet, OK?

  33. #33 Karen
    September 19, 2013
  34. #34 Nick
    September 19, 2013

    #33 actually, ’2000GL was wasted’ is BULLSHIT, not merely exaggeration!….and ’2000GL of STORED’ water wasted is utter bullshit. Blowering and Hume gained 3500GL and SHL gained 700GL! Do the math.

  35. #35 chek
    September 19, 2013

    Heh – NIPCC lead authors are Fred Singer, Craig Idso and Bob Carter. Appropriately enough however, Heatland are based at One South Wacker Drive.
    You can’t say they didn’t warn you.

  36. #36 Nick
    September 19, 2013

    #23 You’re a know-nothing ,Petri…the gravy train is just starting now that the COALition has grabbed power. The Climate Commission cost peanuts.

    Political donors are lining up for favors. The FBT rort will be restored. The means testing of the private health rebate will be removed on the request of the health privateers. Oh and look Abbott has shaken a few lobbyists out of the tree. It’s token but very revealing.

  37. #37 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    #35

    rhwombat draws on his professional training in psychology

    You don’t know what FRACP stands for, nor are you paying attention. RHW is a chest specialist or similar, IIRC.

    Very interesting link though, mike. Not one I would have provided were I you, as it does not bolster your case.

    I think more humour and less viciousness would enhance your art. RHW is frequently very funny (hence #15); you sometimes allow your demons too much control. Struggle with them.

  38. #38 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    #35

    It’s shill bollocks, Sunny! Not real science! I keep telling you – reference the published literature, not shill bollocks and blog bollocks! It’s tedious and it doesn’t constitute a supporting reference!

    Get a clue, Sunny!

    ;-)

    * * *

    #19

  39. #39 Nick
    September 19, 2013

    #35 I downloaded the cryosphere section of the NIPCC. So far it’s cherry-picking all the way, the section on tropical glaciers excludes papers that ascribe recent retreat to the enhanced GH effect, and argues without data for precipitation decline, also pushing increased solar irradiance as sole factors. It’s elaborate and dishonest.

    The World Glacier Mass Balance data is ignored,and a lie about no consistency in global glacial behavior is offered. The claim that Antarctic sea ice trend balances Arctic sea ice trend is made,f**king amateurs! Even a kid with a calculator can establish this meaningless meme is mathematically wrong.

  40. #40 Karen
    September 19, 2013

    Amid ‘Uncertainty’, Scientists Blame Mankind for Global Warming

    http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/global-warming-uncertainty-blaming/2013/09/18/id/526349

  41. #41 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    Sunny, do you actually *read* the stuff you link to? Because there’s no comfort for deniers in your last.

  42. #42 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    One reason I ask is that you periodically shoot yourself in your supersize Clown shoes, as yesterday!

    Remember yesterday, goldfish-brained troll?

    Think! Try hard! Harder!! Got it yet?

    * * *

    It’s amusing – at least to me – that “Karen” waves Zhang (2013) at me in “her” confusion over the difference between sea ice and ice sheets (marine or otherwise) without joining the dots.

    As I have repeatedly tried to explain to “her”, it is the increase in zonal wind speeds that is driving the increased upwelling that is driving the increased basal melt that is driving the increased rate of mass loss. Zhang’s modelled study simply provides support for the observations.

    Poor, stupid, confused “Karen” is so lost in space that “she” doesn’t even realise what “she” has done.

    * * *

    Then this morning you are off again, repeating your rubbish. So you get stuffed *again*. Why do you do it? What is wrong with your mind?

  43. #43 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    Now, goldfish-brained troll, go back and read #19!!

    See what I mean? Your stupid, lying bollocks yesterday is still stupid lying bollocks today! Amazing! Wow!

  44. #44 Lotharsson
    September 19, 2013

    …f**king amateurs!

    I beg to differ. They are professionals who are paid for what they do – professionally mislead.

    Along similar lines, although maybe not with the professional angle:

    What is wrong with your mind?

    Remember, Karen’s purpose here is to disseminate lies (regardless of how stupid or gullible it makes her look).

  45. #45 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    Lotharsson

    Oh, I know. And my purpose here is to give Sunny a hard time about those porky pies!

    Hopefully while others are watching!

    ;-)

  46. #46 Karen
    September 19, 2013

    “LONDON: Predictions that 2013 would see an upsurge in solar activity and geomagnetic storms disrupting power grids and communications systems have proved to be a false alarm. Instead, the current peak in the solar cycle is the weakest for a century.

    Subdued solar activity has prompted controversial comparisons with the Maunder Minimum, which occurred between 1645 and 1715, when a prolonged absence of sunspots and other indicators of solar activity coincided with the coldest period in the last millennium.”

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/science/Solar-activity-drops-to-100-year-low-puzzling-scientists/articleshow/22719807.cms

  47. #47 Bernard J.
    September 19, 2013

    Back here Luke said:

    None of this has been laid to rest – layer upon layer of supposition, proxies, assumptions and models challenged each day as the paper boy brings more journals.

    ” Not remotely long enough to generate extinctions that would be officially recognized by IUCN. Certainly long enough to extrapolate deleterious effects on biodiversity”

    JEff – Not really – more alarmism. I wonder how (myopically speaking) Australian flora and fauna deal with massive interannual and decadal variability. And you want to bedwet over an uncertain trend with modelled plus or minus signs in overall rainfall. Pullease !

    This shows on Luke’s part a limited understanding of species’ bioclimatic responses, and of how these are compounded by interspecific interactions. For many ecophysiological/phenological responses what counts is not just the range of temperature to which a species is exposed, but the trajectory of the mean temperature over days, weeks, months and years.

    Luke asks why interannual and decadal variability are not more important than the overall change in mean global temperature. But why stop there? Why not ask why the diurnal variability in a species temperature exposure doesn’t overwhelm its seasonal or semiseasonal responses? Why doesn’t a particularly cloudy, dark and cool day in summer, after a warm and sunny one the previous day, send a bear into hibernation, when the train of gradually diminishing temperature and light in autumn does?

    And it’s not just about the direct ‘pulse’ vs ‘press’ temperature (ot whatever) effects on a species. As I mentioned above there are species intereactions to consider, and any particular species (especially faunal) is dependent on the ecologies of other, interacting species in its ecosystem – these interacting species are integrators of the bioclimatic milieu.

    And further still, it’s not just about the biotic arena either: those abiotic factors do play an essential part. Luke seems to disparage the “bedwet[ting] over an uncertain trend with modelled plus or minus signs in overall rainfall”, but for many species operating on a finey-tuned ecophysiological budget a very slight alteration in the amount or pattern of precipitation, or of ice cover, or of humidity, or of wind direction, and have profound life-history effects.

    Luke, unlike the KarenMackSunspots and the FreddyKaiBorisBerendanekes and the Scandinavian Troll Collective and sundry other idiots here, you are a reasonably smart person. Your blanket dismissal of significant ecolophysiological reponses to alterations in climatic regimes is unbecoming, and it diminishes your overall capacity to be taken seriously. Yes, ecology and evolution can be sublte and profoundly complex subjects to grasp, but cavalier ignorance is no way to make a case. Leave that to the knuckle-draggers here – you can do better than that.

  48. #48 chek
    September 19, 2013

    a prolonged absence of sunspots

    We can only hope.

  49. #49 Jeff Harvey
    September 19, 2013

    Two bits of good news: first, this:

    http://news.psu.edu/story/287752/2013/09/16/bloomberg-markets-names-michael-mann-50-most-influential-list

    Second, we might not be seeing too many posts from three of the recent serial offenders for awhile. Call it inside information. That cheers me up no end! Now the blog can again get back to the nitty gritty.

  50. #50 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    #49

    Mann deserves all the recognition he gets. MBH98/99 were ground-breaking. His fortitude since nothing short of admirable. The squalid campaigns against his work, integrity and reputation also deserve wide recognition – for what they really are.

    As for the culling of the socks, and more, icing on the cake! Things had got a bit out of hand, really. There are limits, even in this free-fire zone.

  51. #51 Boris
    September 19, 2013

    Jeff Harvey

    which serial offenders did you mean?

  52. #52 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    You’ll have to wait and see, KaiFreddyBorisBerendaneke!

  53. #53 Lionel A
    September 19, 2013

    …which serial offenders did you mean?

    Why, the GMO crop growers and their monocultured, ecocidic, plants of course!

  54. #54 Boris
    September 19, 2013

    BBD asshole, you feel well in your German nazi Gestapo role? Fuck yourself you arselick, you son of a cheap bitch and pedophilic monster. The devil will cook you in hell and eat your viscera, fucking idiot! Your insanity will bring you into jail and psychiatric ward. You cannot win with your shit brain and rotten character

    YOU ARE A REAL ASSHOLE, A BIG ASSHOLE, AND SO UNINTELLIGENT, FUCK OFF, MOTHERFUCKER.

    I WILL NOW CALL MY LAWYERS TO FIND YOU IN YOUR HOLE AND GET YOU, ARSELICK!

  55. #55 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    But is is possible that abusive trolls using multiple socks (and possibly hiding their real IPs) might be for the chop.

    For example, if I had trolled this blog obsessively and abusively for well over a month using multiple socks, as you have, I might be worried, Kai*Freddy*Boris*Berendaneke!

    I imagine Sunspot “Karen” is worried too, especially as Sunspot “Karen” is explicitly forbidden to comment outside the Sunspot thread. Doubleplusungood!

  56. #56 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    Oh dear Kai*Freddy*Boris*Berendaneke! Did we hit a nerve!

    Keep it up while you can!

    :-)

  57. #57 Boris
    September 19, 2013

    You leper islanders are inborn losers, degusting crap. You always lose because you are too decadent and silly and so unintelligent that you don’t even catch this with your impaired brains.

  58. #58 chek
    September 19, 2013

    Then he obvious solution for you is not to click on this blog, isn’t it ‘Boris’?
    That seems simple enough to any rational person … oh wait..

  59. #59 Boris
    September 19, 2013

    Asshole BBD

    you are a true eco fundamentalist CAGW asshole!

  60. #60 Bob
    September 19, 2013

    The tears of a thwarted troll taste quite delicious.

  61. #61 Jeff Harvey
    September 19, 2013

    Oh No! Boris is Berandaneke! He was banned so he’s just using another sock puppet. I’ve said it before but Freddy/Berandaneke/Boris is a cyber pysychopath.

    Tim! Ban this person! Ensure they can’t get through the filter!

  62. #62 BBD
    September 19, 2013

    The problem these days is that it’s sooo easy to set up zillions of fake IPs and hang screen names off them. Even fuckwits like Kai can do it.

    Steps will have to be taken. Jeff is correct.

  63. #63 Bernard J.
    September 19, 2013

    ‘Boris’.

    You forgot to mention the colour of environmentalists’ urine.

  64. #64 chek
    September 19, 2013

    Without active moderation, it’ll have to be a case of going back into ignore mode.

    I’ve heard unsubstantiated gossip that Tim L’s health is not at its best which is a shame because when NI Westminster MP and all round fuckwit economist Sammy Wilson outed himself as an AGW denier back in 2007-ish or so, I found as a complete neophyte that Tim’s blog topics usually had the best answers and links somewhere in the comments for whatever was stirring the denier soup from week to week.

    But, “there is a tide in the affairs of men etc” which means at some point we have to continue on making the best of what we have learned. And if there’s one thing we’ve learned it’s that denialism is incapable of making a sound case.

    I wish Tim the very best, and hope he’ll be able to come out fighting in the face of Abbott’s attacks on reality in the name of neolib dogma, but if that’s not possible, I fervently hope the rational; community here (you know who you are) can carry on in Tim’s place until such time as none of this is required any longer.

    Bloody hell, that must have been a particularly good Cab. Sav. this evening. Apologies for any embarrassment caused, and cheers to Tim Lambert

  65. #65 Karen
    September 19, 2013

    The Maslowski Countdown

    Ice Free Arctic 2013 September 22nd, 2013

    3 days to go.

  66. #66 Karen
    September 19, 2013

    “Scientists working on the most authoritative study on climate change were urged to cover up the fact that the world’s temperature hasn’t risen for the last 15 years, it is claimed.

    A leaked copy of a United Nations report, compiled by hundreds of scientists, shows politicians in Belgium, Germany, Hungary and the United States raised concerns about the final draft.

    Published next week, it is expected to address the fact that 1998 was the hottest year on record and world temperatures have not yet exceeded it, which scientists have so far struggled to explain.”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2425775/Climate-scientists-told-cover-fact-Earths-temperature-risen-15-years.html#ixzz2fN17tbF8

    Fantastic times, eh guyz :)

  67. #67 chek
    September 19, 2013

    Yep, fantastic times for liars SpamKan. Until the 27th.

  68. #68 chek
    September 19, 2013

    Ice Free Arctic 2013 September 22nd, 2013

    Still unable to do basic arithmetic, eh SpamKan?
    What an asset you are to jackasses everywhere.

  69. #69 Karen
    September 19, 2013

    oh, and here is a goodie,,,,,,,,, :)

    ” the leaked report makes the extraordinary concession that over the past 15 years, recorded world temperatures have increased at only a quarter of the rate of IPCC claimed when it published its last assessment in 2007.

    Back then, it said observed warming over the 15 years from 1990-2005 had taken place at a rate of 0.2C per decade, and it predicted this would continue for the following 20 years, on the basis of forecasts made by computer climate models.

    But the new report says the observed warming over the more recent 15 years to 2012 was just 0.05C per decade – below almost all computer predictions.

    The 31-page ‘summary for policymakers’ is based on a more technical 2,000-page analysis which will be issued at the same time. It also surprisingly reveals: IPCC scientists accept their forecast computers may have exaggerated the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures – and not taken enough notice of natural variability.

    They recognise the global warming ‘pause’ first reported by The Mail on Sunday last year is real – and concede that their computer models did not predict it. But they cannot explain why world average temperatures have not shown any statistically significant increase since 1997.

    lThey admit large parts of the world were as warm as they are now for decades at a time between 950 and 1250 AD – centuries before the Industrial Revolution, and when the population and CO2 levels were both much lower.

    lThe IPCC admits that while computer models forecast a decline in Antarctic sea ice, it has actually grown to a new record high. Again, the IPCC cannot say why.”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2420783/Worlds-climate-scientists-confess-Global-warming-just-QUARTER-thought–computers-got-effects-greenhouse-gases-wrong.html

    The evidence of the co2 fail is spreading exponentially now shrekie, lol

  70. #70 Karen
    September 19, 2013

    oooooooooh, this is very exciting :)

    “IPCC scientists accept their forecast computers may have exaggerated the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures – and not taken enough notice of natural variability.”

    see guyz, lol, your syense & fizziks failed, or was it all just a lie?!?!?

  71. #71 bill
    September 19, 2013

    See, SpamKan?; you are, indeed, a Daily Mail Reader.

    It’s what we call a ‘Moron Magnet’.

  72. #72 Karen
    September 19, 2013

    Soooo, now that the climate scare is over, could we please start discussing more important issues?

    Okay, I’ll kick it off with this…………..

    “EXCLUSIVE: ‘She puts on a brave face – but she’s been trying for a baby for a year’: Jennifer Aniston’s secret bid to be a mom – as she denies she’s pregnant at 44″

    :)

  73. #73 chek
    September 19, 2013

    If you had any concept of what the phrase ‘loaded language’ means SpamKan you (like any other reader with more than one functioning braincell) would be on your guard against such crapola as you’ve been directed to spam.

    But as Lotharsson has helpfully pointed out, your mission here is solely to lie but never engage, as you aren’t able to defend the indefensible..

  74. #74 Karen
    September 19, 2013

    #73 chek,I have tried and tried honey, but I never know when someone is talking to me?

    I think the problem seems to be that the dumbtoid nuffies constantly get my name wrong?

  75. #75 chek
    September 19, 2013

    Soooo, now that the climate scare is over,

    The scary thing actually is that shit-fer-brains like you SpamKan actually start to believe your own shit.
    Your ’9th Army saviours’ are a figment of your imagination. It seems you really what a joke you are, SpamKan

  76. #76 Craig Thomas
    September 19, 2013

    Reliance on the Daily Mail for your stories, Karen?

    What a shame.

  77. #77 Karen
    September 19, 2013

    In 2007 Gore Says Arctic Ice Could Disappear By 2013, Earth Gains Record Amount Of Sea Ice In 2013

    http://nation.foxnews.com/2013/09/15/2007-gore-says-arctic-ice-could-disappear-2013-earth-gains-record-amount-sea-ice-2013

    I have been searching and searching, I have been desperately trying to find any predictions that haven’t failed !

    I did find my prediction from last week tho, and it came troo, yep ?

    Flannery got the arse………. lol

  78. #78 chek
    September 19, 2013

    I think the problem seems to be that the dumbtoid nuffies constantly get my name wrong?

    Blog names are transient, but identities are harder to hide, SpamKan. Particularly for those as stupid as you.

  79. #79 Nick
    September 19, 2013

    #77, you predicted that? The IPA demanded it months ago. Abbott signalled he’d do it weeks ago. Foregone conclusion.

  80. #80 Karen
    September 19, 2013

    Flannery will more than likely jump the fence now.

  81. #81 chek
    September 20, 2013

    You’re improvising away from your feed now SpamKan and talking shit from your own native stupidity. What does that – ‘jump the fence’ – even mean, you moron?

  82. #82 Karen
    September 20, 2013

    #81 shrekie……… the same thing that Timmie did….

  83. #83 chek
    September 20, 2013

    Stick to your given script SpamKan.
    You make no sense without it

  84. #84 Karen
    September 20, 2013

    psssst, change sides :)

  85. #85 chek
    September 20, 2013

    Your ‘side’ has nothing but idiocy to offer SpamKan.
    You’re testament to that.

  86. #86 bill
    September 20, 2013

    I hadn’t appreciated that Murdoch really is the real deal – a True Unbeliever every bit as pole-axingly dense as SpamKan!

    Here’s a recent tweet from the Dark Lord and Spammy’s Saviour -

    Al Gore. Pls explain record increase in Arctic ice. Other greenies crippling US growth in opposing safe tracking for natural gas

    A statistically-incompetent billionaire – so much for market theory!

    Hey, Stupids, here’s a prediction for you. Withing 5 years there’ll be another record sea-ice minimum, and the year after that all you utter plonkers will be claiming there’s another ‘record’ recovery!

  87. #87 Nick
    September 20, 2013

    #86, ..so Rupert reads his own papers! No wonder he’s such a stupid fuckwit! The propagandist captured by his own propaganda.

    ‘Pls explain’…who is he, Pauline Hanson? News Corp needs to retire the old coot.

    PS, was ‘tracking’ intended to be ‘fracking’?

  88. #88 bill
    September 20, 2013

    Also, I don’t believe SpamKan is a ‘liar’, as such.

    SpamKan has very little capacity to distinguish truth from fiction – hell, as we know, she hasn’t actually sorted the distinction between Celsius and Fahrenheit! As has been pointed out, she never engages because since childhood she’s known full-well that tricksy clever people always burns us, Precious.

    And, anyway, the truth/falsehood thing is not a distinction that’s important to her, because she knows what’s ‘true’ in the same way that Abbott does – via ‘the gut’. Sorting evidence is too hard, and it’s all way over her head anyway. More intelligent (but not that much) and cynical (- monstrously – ) people than her pump out the chum day after day; she ‘believes’ it, regurgitates it, and she’s – literally – happy with that.

    One could never attach the word ‘sincere’ to the beliefs of such a creature – look at the repulsive, Gollum-esque gloating, over what it has fantasized to be Tim’s ‘conversion’ – but it credits its claims as factual in the same way that Creationists, homeopaths and 911-truthers do, and, indeed, all the stupid people of history have.

    What is ‘sincere’ – at least in the sense of being a passionate conviction – is its sense that its winning, and, again, its simply too stupid to discern that it is not.

  89. #89 Lotharsson
    September 20, 2013

    The Maslowski Countdown

    Ice Free Arctic 2013 September 22nd, 2013

    3 days and 6 years to go.

    I corrected the lie. I didn’t bother correcting the corollary lie. Readers with half a brain can figure that out, as they can see that Karen’s purpose here is to disseminate lies.

  90. #90 Karen
    September 20, 2013
  91. #91 Nick
    September 20, 2013

    #90..an appeal to the authority of someone possibly more stupid than yourself. ‘Astute’, indeed.

  92. #92 Karen
    September 20, 2013

    “In the end, we don’t yet know how the ocean’s heat content has changed, but we know it has. We don’t know exactly how surface temperatures are being (lol) suppressed, but we know warming can’t have stopped (lol). We don’t know for sure what’s causing the ice to melt (lol) so fast, although we have a pretty good idea that temperature might have something to do with it.”….. lol

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/nrc-report-on-ocean-heat.html

    lol…… I love that website :)

  93. #93 bill
    September 20, 2013

    Regurgitating Idiot fails to read own link (yet again).

  94. #94 Nick
    September 20, 2013

    #92..”lol….I love that website” Ah, but do you understand it, Kaz?

  95. #95 bill
    September 20, 2013

    It’s never read it. It’s just regurgitating.

  96. #96 Karen
    September 20, 2013

    Communicating the cooling consensus is very important in terms of increasing public awareness of the CO2 climate change lies and support for the disbandment of the IPCC..

  97. #97 bill
    September 20, 2013

    But if there’s a consensus that means it’s wrong, remember?

  98. #98 Karen
    September 20, 2013

    Does this sound better Billie?

    Communicating the cooling of the climate change consensus is very important in terms of increasing public awareness of the CO2 climate change lies and support for the disbandment of the IPCC..

  99. #99 Boris
    September 20, 2013

    Jeff Harvey

    YOU ARE THE PSYCHOPATH

    and one thing IS clear:

    YOU DUMBTOIDS WILL LOSE THE CLIMATE WAR

  100. #100 Karen
    September 20, 2013

    For Jeff, :)

    Planet good for another 1.75 billion years, scientists say

    http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/09/19/how-much-longer-can-earth-support-life/