NSW

Category archives for NSW

Homicides in NSW and gun control

Charles Scripter wrote: Here we fit the NSW “before” region to a slope + constant background, while the “after” region is fit only to a slope (chance resulted in this slope passing through, or very close to zero, eliminating the need for a constant, 4th parameter). The origin is located at year 1900. Data for…

Homicides in NSW and gun control

Charles Scripter wrote: [...regarding Tim Lambert's assertion of a significant decrease in homicide in New South Wales in 1920, coincident with the enactment of a gun control law in NSW in that same year...] The Lambert analysis method clearly shows that there was a significant decrease for any year one may choose, from 1910 to…

Charles Scripter writes: BTW, I notice that your web page still seems to purport that your analysis was correct, even though your friends over in sci.stat.edu pointed out that it was not correct; That’s an interesting interpretation of the discussion. Perhaps you’d like to correct this “oversight”. No problem, here’s something from one of my…

Your claim that I have not shown that the situations were stable is false. The homicide rate was roughly constant in the period before gun control and in the period after gun control. Andy Freeman said: The graphs have shown that it was roughly constant AFTER, but before…. there was a dip in the period…

What about demographic change in NSW?

Alan Watt said: However, what effect did WW-I have on the age-distribution of the population? I would expect the percentage of 18-25 year-olds in the general population to be reduced due to war casualties. In the U.S., this is the age group which accounts for most of the violent crime. Here are the percentages of…

What on earth do you mean by ‘the “nothing else happened” parameter”? Andy Freeman said: Lambert’s model is for a transition between two stable situations with some “noise”. He uses it to argue that gun control explains the transition. Yet, he doesn’t bother to show whether or not anything else happened at the relevant time,…

Australian homicide figures 1900-1940

robert i kesten said: Could you give the date(s) and an 11 year (5 before, first year of implementation, 5 after) table of homicide rates. If possible I’m interested in Australia as a whole, not just NSW or any other state. Here are the states for which I have data.

We’ve been around on this before, and all it does is impress me with the predilection of some pro-gun folks for self-delusion on this topic. (I’m sorry if that sounds harsh, but it seems to me that many people suspend their powers of reason on this issue.) Here are the NSW homicide rates from 1910-1920:…

Goodness of fit of abrupt change model

My model has two parameters (pre 1920 rate, post 1920 rate). Your model has four parameters (starting rate, first decrease, second decrease, year that rate of decrease changed). The more parameters that your model has, the easier it is to fit the data. Frank Crary said: However, no one is restricting the number of free…

I was able to find some statistics on homicides in South Australia (in “South Australian Historical Statistics” Vamplew, Richards,Jaensch and Hancock) Unfortunately, they only cover the period 1921-1979, but we can use them to see if gun control, introduced in SA in 1929, had any effect. We can use the adjacent state of NSW as…