NSW

Category archives for NSW

Frank Crary said: In an effort to clear up this statistical game, I’m posting a detailed comparison of Mr. Lambert’s and my models of the crime rate in New South Wales, between 1910 and 1930. The data, taken from the graph he posted on the 15th of this month, is: [Numbers deleted] (Please correct me…

Could the changes be caused by noise? This calls for a t test, to see if the average homicide rate changed. Andy Freeman said: There’s an interesting thing about averages. If you take the average of a declining series and compare it to the end point, you find that the average is, not surprisingly, higher.…

Frank Crary said (referring to changes in homicide rate in NSW and Qld): The sharp drop you claim to see, is (in my opinion) not significant compared to the background variations. While this may have been real effect of gun control laws, in is at least as likely that it is a coincidence. Could the…

Effects of gun control in Australia

In a previous posting I observed that the homicide rate in New South Wales fell dramatically following the introduction of gun controls in 1920. Here, again, is the graph showing the homicide rate in NSW from 1900-1977. (Vertical scale is homicide rate per 100 000 population) 3 * 2.8 2.6 * 2.4 * 2.2 *…

Andy Freeman said: Why doesn’t Lambert tell us about pre-control crime and murder rates and trends in Oz and compare them to post-control rates and trends? If gun control actually worked in Oz, the introduction of controls was associated with a good change in the rate trend. Could it be that there wasn’t a good…