Orlando

Category archives for Orlando

Sam A. Kersh writes: No, it up to you to show that an 88% reduction in rapes, 35% reduction in commercial robbery and an 84% reduction in residential burglaries is insignificant. Proof, not an inane assertion by Lambert as a citation. Sam, you seem to lack the most basic understanding of the way statistics is…

In article fkk@leland.stanford.edu writes: In a recent post Pim cites Tim Lambert as support for his position on the Florida data. I’m sorry but Lambert’s analysis is flawed at its core. No it isn’t. It appears that you don’t understand what statistical hypothesis testing is, or what it means. Let’s see what he says: First…

In article none+1 stratos@crl.com Janine K. Johnson wrote: Recently, several postings discussed the Orlando Florida phenomena of 1966/67, in which a drop in the rape rate was noted after a much publicized program co sponsored by the local police and the Orlando Sentinel, in which 6,000 women were trained in the use of firearms. Knox,…

Nate Lund said: Point Blank, by Gary Kleck, page 134: “From October 1966 to March 1967, the Orlando Police Department trained more that 2500 women to use guns. Organized in response to demands from citizens worried about a sharp increase in rape, this was an unusually large and highly publicized program. “An interrupted time series…

Bill Gray said: [talking about Orlando gun training] Anyway, during the period after the training when the rapes dropped so dramatically, none of the women ever fired their weapons. Moreover, none of them shot a husband or boyfriend, nor were any children harmed with these firearms. I personally called the Orlando PD to confirm as…

Crime rates go up and crime rates go down. Before seizing on some possibly coincidental factor such as gun training or gun control as the cause of the change, we need to establish if the change was unusual, i.e. statistically significant. The only attempt I have seen to establish this is in Kleck and Bordua’s…

Which does not explain why there was no change in the suburbs, where there was just as much publicity. Frank Crary said: Presumably, the publicity was about women in Orlando carrying guns, not women in the suburbs of Orlando carrying them. It seems likely that a significant number of women from the suburbs took the…

Kevin Langston said: It really doesn’t matter whether 0.2% or 20% of the women in a given area carry a .38 caliber protector. What matters is that 50% of the potential rapists/muggers/etc believe that a significant number of their potential victims can immediately fend off their attack, thus forcing them to consider the potential cost…

So why credit the reduction in rape and burglary to the program? Oh I see, you would claim this as an indirect effect, where rapists and burglars gave up because they were worried about armed victims. Well, what if some criminals instead armed themselves to help deal with this threat. With-gun robberies are three times…

Kleck also states that the percentage decrease was larger than in any other US city with a population of over 100,000. Kleck neglects to tell us what the population of Orlando was, but by looking at the granularity of the data you can deduce that the population of Orlando was less than 100,000 for the…