Ed Brayton is a journalist, commentator and speaker. He is the co-founder and president of 
No, that's not the name of a new band. Over the last few days, the right wing blogosphere has gone positively apoplectic over Eric Pianka, an ecologist and biologist from the University of Texas, and his prediction that the Ebola virus will wipe out 90% of the human population due to overcrowding. Forrest Mims has been on what is essentially a publicity tour of the web, claiming that Pianka is actually encouraging people to create biological weapons to kill off all the people. Meanwhile, Dembski actually called the Department of Homeland Security to get the guy investigated as a potential terrorist. Yeah, we're talking about a full-fledged loony festival here.
Nick Matzke does a good job of taking down this silliness at the Panda's Thumb. Personally, I think Pianka is way off base. He claims that we'll be hunter gatherers again soon, without his lifetime, because the whole of human civilization is going to crash due to overcrowding. I'd like to make a bet with him on that. If it doesn't happen in the next 25 years (he's old enough to have grandkids now, so that's fair) then I get his pension. Let's see how confident he is in his prediction.
But his being off base in his predictions doesn't make him a terrorist, for crying out loud, and the vastly hyperbolic reaction of Mims, Dembski and the rest of the wingnuts has real consequences - not only Pianka but the Texas Academy of Sciences are now getting death threats as a result. And when Pianka calls Forrest Mims a "crazy kook", he may be understating the case. Wes Elsberry has two good posts on the subject as well.
Comments
I disagree with his predictions as well--especially that a 90% fatal disease will wipe out most of the planet, or that "it's only a matter of time before Ebola Zaire evolves to be airborne." But predicting something (or merely discussing it) doesn't make it so. Hell, I've given several lectures on bioterrorism--guess I should be reported as well.
Posted by: Tara
| April 4, 2006 11:15 AM
Isn't this one of those predictions that is made every 10 years or so?
Much like "In ten years Darwinism will be a relic of history."
Or, "In ten years there will be flat-screen TV's." Hey- that one came true!
However, _Guns, Germs and Steel_ made the case that measles and other chronic diseases need a certain population density to survive.
Maybe Pianka has a screenplay. 8^)
Posted by: KeithB
| April 4, 2006 12:26 PM
KeithB wrote:
Oh, more often than that. Anyone who has been in debate can tell you all about Lester Brown and the Worldwatch Institute, or Paul Ehrlich and his "keynote species". I can remember reading cards from them 25 years ago about the demise being imminent, always just around the corner. The bad thing about this is that it takes away from genuine environmental concerns. Obviously, natural resources won't last forever. Just as obviously, we need to reduce the impact of human activities on the environment (out of pure self-interest if nothing else). But these breathtaking predictions of imminent doom only serve to undermine the entire rationale for efforts to do so and make environmentalists sound like con men.
Posted by: Ed Brayton
| April 4, 2006 1:49 PM
Predictions of imminent doom do tend to have salutary results. People act, and things change. When Ehrlich wrote his book, Population Bomb, there were still very active lobbies opposing clean air and clean water legislation. The National Wilderness System was not so strong as now. Plans were to put SSTs in the air over all of America. Fuel standards for autos and trucks didn't exist. Recycling was rare.
Not enough progress, but progress.
Posted by: Ed
| April 5, 2006 12:03 AM