Ed Brayton is a journalist, commentator and speaker. He is the co-founder and president of 
Jacob Weisberg has an excellent article at Slate about why the gay marriage amendment isn't going to help the Republicans this time. He points out that they've basically had the amendment behind a "break glass in case of flagging ratings" case, but it has far less traction this time than it did in 2004. The first reason is because it's patently obvious that it's nothing more than a political ploy. They knew it had no chance of passing and they haven't even mentioned it since just before the 2004 election. And even the religious right is coming around to the fact that they really don't care much about it:
After Bush's re-election, Republicans simply blew off the issue--to the great dismay of leaders on the religious right, a few of whom indicated that they felt taken advantage of. Bush said in an interview that he saw little prospect for advancing a constitutional amendment in the Senate unless courts threw out the Defense of Marriage Act, a 1996 law that says states don't have to recognize gay marriages solemnized in other states despite the "full faith and credit" clause. DOMA stands, the politics in the Senate haven't changed, and Bush was as good as his word about not lifting a finger. The way he has now returned to the issue, over the stated objections of both his wife and his vice president, is bluntly insulting to his evangelical backers, who are in effect being told: Come and get your election-year bone, before we kick you back into your doghouse on Nov. 8.
Another reason, perhaps even more important, is that attitudes have started changing just in the last 2 years. We're already seeing a significant change in public opinion polls as they get more used to the idea.
The third reason gay marriage will fail as an issue is that Bush is bucking the tide of history. The past two decades have seen a quiet revolution in attitudes toward homosexuality throughout the West. People in advanced democracies around the world are growing more accepting of gay unions by the year. Younger people, who have grown up in a more gay-tolerant environment, find the notion of same-sex marriage unshocking and are less susceptible to covert appeals to bigotry. Various polls show a shift of up to 12 percentage points on gay marriage in just the past few years. Culture war politics aren't exhausted and opposition to gay marriage remains a motivational issue in many places. But 2006 may be remembered as the year Republicans pressed the gay panic button and it failed.
And it will only get less and less effective for them. The tide has already turned on this one and they know it. Once it becomes clear that Massachusetts and Connecticut really haven't fallen apart and no one is marrying their pet goat, all of the ridiculous fear-mongering about the collapse of western civilization just loses its ability to scare people. They've already lost, they just don't know it yet.
Comments
I'm skeptical of the notion that evangelicals are capable of staying home and not pulling the lever for a Republican on election day. They are too obsessed with politics, too involved in the fight to write their religion into law; no amount of betrayal or abandonment by Republican politicians can undermine the evangelicals' intense hatred of the liberal society around them and the threat of victory by those they hate the most: the "Democrat" Party. They will vote in November, and for the same reason they always vote: they are simply too stupid to understand that they are being used. Weisberg assumes that the electorate is rational, but they aren't. I get frustrated every time I read optimistic predictions from people on Slate or at the Washington Monthly - when will these soothsayers realize that America is beholden to the Christian Right and will be for a very long time? My money is on the Democrats gaining a few seats in Congress, but the Republicans maintaining control of both houses.
Posted by: Chuck
| June 9, 2006 9:49 AM
I hope the tide has actually changed as many believe, but I really feel that there is going to be some serious backlash in many places before its over. I'm in Georgia now and these people are still struggling with integration; throwing gays and immigrants at them as well is certainly going to get them riled up (already has). I'm not sure many folk really understand how militant folks like these are about forcing their version of religious morals on others. They don't seem to care about corruption, political hakcery, lies, or any of it as long as their religious cows are spoken to. I'm not optimistic, hopeful, but not optimistic
Posted by: Scott Reese
| June 9, 2006 10:24 AM
http://www.yorkdispatch.com/pennsylvania/ci_3909278
This same thing is happening in my state (Pennsylvania) but unfortunately seems like it's going to pass.
It's already passed the House by a large margin and will probably pass the Senate as well. It's definitely an election year and with a lot of the powerful incumbents being ousted in the primaries (and probably more in the actual November elections) they're trying to grab as many voters as possible to keep their seats. It'll be interesting, to say the least.
Posted by: llDayo
| June 9, 2006 11:30 AM
Some of them do know it; Bill Bennett basically admitted so on the Daily Show earlier this week.
Posted by: Todd Larason
| June 9, 2006 4:45 PM