Ed Brayton is a journalist, commentator and speaker. He is the co-founder and president of 
An AP survey of Democratic superdelegates reveals significant movement from Clinton to Obama.
As Obama has reeled off 11 straight primary victories, some of the superdelegates are having second -- or third -- thoughts about their public commitments.Clinton still leads among superdelegates -- 241 to 181, according to the AP survey. But her total is down two in the past two weeks, while Obama's is up 25. Since the primaries started, at least three Clinton superdelegates have switched to Obama, including Rep. David Scott of Georgia, who changed his endorsement after Obama won 80 percent of the primary vote in Scott's district. At least two other Clinton backers have switched to undecided.
It's looking more and more like this race is all but over.
Comments
For those who want to keep track of such things, this site is doing all the leg work of keeping track of superdelegate endorsements:
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html
Posted by: tacitus | February 24, 2008 11:22 AM
Well, I'd wait until after Texas and Ohio on March 4. Hillary has strong Latino backing (allegedly, at least), and could potentially have a big win in Texas. And Ohio has a lot of delegates up for grabs.
Posted by: James Hanley | February 24, 2008 3:51 PM
If the places were switched, and Hillary had won as many individual votes as he has, and she had won as many delegates as he has, and she had won as many primaries/caucases in a row as he has, people would have been asking why he's still in it at this point, and is he doing the party more harm than good by staying in.
We're not even asking those questions about her. Maybe we should be.
Posted by: biogeek | February 24, 2008 4:58 PM
The problem for Clinton in Texas is that 1/3 of the delegates are selected in a caucus the evening of the primary. Even if she gains a majority in the primary she has yet to prove she can significantly outperform Obama when it comes to caucuses.
It seems likely that Texas will end up being a tie, and that's not good for Clinton.
Posted by: tacitus | February 24, 2008 5:52 PM
I respectfully disagree. Obama has only a small numerical advantage in delegates, with no certainty (yet) of capturing a majority before the Convention. I'm no H. Clinton fan, but because she still has a legitimate shot, she's still legitimately in it.
I agree, but the question is whether that's "a caucus thing," or "a state thing." That is, is there really something about caucuses that cause her to perform badly, or is it just a function of the particular states that have had caucuses? I don't really know, so for my part I can't assume either at this point. And even if she picks up only 2/3 of the Texas delegates to Obama's 1/3, I think (without looking up the numbers), she'd regain the lead. Then the media might stop talking about Obama's momentum, and start focusing on Clinton's comeback.
But if she doesn't do well in Texas, then I'll jump on board with you all and declare her toast.
Posted by: James Hanley | February 24, 2008 10:28 PM
James: But Texas and Ohio are not winner take all.
She has to outperform him by something like a 30 point margin to close the gap.
Posted by: Michael Ralston | February 25, 2008 12:27 AM
> It's looking more and more like this race is all but over.
It's not over but everyone is *saying* is it which means it probably is... Go figure that paradox...
People, especially in the US, like to back a winner and will oftentimes vote for the person who appears to be ahead. I agree that Obama is on a roll (and I would vote for him myself if I was American) but this is purely down to momentum - not headcount.
In other news - Ed, I'd be very interested in your opinion of Larry Lessig's Change Congress movement.
Posted by: David Durant | February 25, 2008 9:51 AM
I don't here the fat lady.. yet. "It ain't over 'till it's over". -DJ
Posted by: DingoJack | February 25, 2008 10:30 AM
I agree with biogeek. Obama has won 11 primaries/caucuses in a row. That should be enough to knock anyone with any sense out of the race. And he's won them by an average of over 30% as the margin of victory. Since Super Tuesday she has been annihilated. Considering how much better a campaigner Obama is, if she even ties him in Texas it will be a miracle. Right now the Clinton people have to rely on (1) strong-arming superdelegates, most of whom would rather have Obama at the top of their ballot, (2) seating MI and FL, and (3) winning big on March 4th. None of these are likely to happen, never mind all 3.
She should drop out.
Posted by: calling all toasters | February 25, 2008 7:13 PM