Dan Perrin is a Republican strategist. In this post at RedState, he demonstrates why no Republican candidate who wants to win an election should even consider hiring him to do anything other than empty the trash cans at the office.
There are seven serious, historic, demographic and other wise culturally compelling reasons Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin will win the election on November 4, 2008 – a date of defeat that will sear itself into the Democratic Party’s collective consciousness.
You’re gonna love the first one:
The first and foremost reason McCain-Palin will win is the absolute arrogance, elitism, condescending, patronizing and in-your-face voter suppression campaign – don’t vote for McCain, he can not win — being conducted by the national media on Senator Obama’s behalf.
Riiiiiight. That infernal liberal media is actually reporting poll results. Damn those liars! It isn’t true, it isn’t true, it isn’t true. Just because poll after poll in state after state has shown things getting worse and worse for McCain over the last 5 weeks doesn’t have anything to do with public opinion. The evil media, you see, has hypnotized people into giving false answers to pollsters. Yeah, that’s the ticket.
But here’s the funniest part. Just a few paragraphs later, he says this media bias is going to suppress votes FOR Obama:
Obama’s youth vote will not post to the polls, they never do. The young think: the media says Obama will win, so why should I vote?
Brilliant. Here’s another reason:
The Gallup poll after Labor Day has historically been a predictor of the winner of the Presidential election. The person leading in that poll wins the Presidency. The Republican convention, pushed onto Labor Day by the Summer Olympics muddied the waters on this historic fact, but the Gallup poll a week later showed McCain ahead of Obama, predicting the McCain victory.
For those of you who inhabit the material universe where things like reality actually matter, let me translate for you: “I liked things a lot better 7 weeks ago when the polls were in favor of the guy I like. So I’m going to pretend that the last 7 weeks didn’t happen and nothing has changed *sticking fingers in ears* LA LA LA LA LA, I can’t hear you.”
Here’s another reason:
Elderly and some other Jewish voters were already uncomfortable about voting for Obama, but the recent comments by Farrakhan that when Obama speaks, the Messiah is speaking, or that Obama’s victory will do great things for the Nation of Islam, or the statement by Jesse Jackson that there will be “fundamental change” in America’s foreign policy, especially with regard to Israel – is causing a hemorrhaging of Jewish support.
Which explains why Obama’s support among Jews has grown steadily over the last few months and he now leads McCain 74-22 in that demographic. And don’t forget those PUMAs, who turned out to look a lot like unicorns:
Women who feel Senator Clinton was treated unfairly by the Democratic Party, by the media and by Senator Obama — who did not even vet Senator Clinton to be his running mate – will remember. This voting block, you will recall, lay in the weeds in the pre-New Hampshire primary polling. The win by Senator Clinton was a shock, undetected by the polling. And these were Democratic Party voters who were undetected – not the other voters Obama will face November 4th…But the 40 and 50 and 60 something women voters who voted for Senator Clinton have three alternative plans to make sure they get to the polls, regardless of a hiccup in their work or child care responsibilities. They will vote, and they will vote against Senator Obama.
Which explains why McCain is now at his historical lows in support among women (38%) and Obama is now at his historical highs (54%). And why Obama is currently getting more support from Republicans (10%) than McCain is getting from Democrats (9%).
But the best reason of all: an anonymous hairdresser told him she’s voting for McCain:
Today’s unstable world does not bode well for Senator Obama. The instability in the stock market and related job and mortgage fears do not equate with voting for the ING (Inexperienced New Guy.) In an affirmation of Mark Penn’s observation that the strong leader almost always wins the Presidential election, a mid-west hairdresser with no party affiliation told me the country has very serious problems, and that is why she is voting for the strongest leader.
And never mind that Obama’s poll numbers have climbed at precisely the time that the economic crisis hit its peak and that those same polls consistently show that more people trust Obama on the economy than McCain. Apparently, the problem is that none of the polling companies have nearly enough unnamed hair stylists in their samples. This article is so stupid that if I didn’t know better, I would think it was a parody.