Ed Brayton is a journalist, commentator and speaker. He is the co-founder and president of 
Politico is reporting that John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, sending staff to other more competitive states and canceling his appearances and advertising here, essentially conceding the state to Obama. This is huge news. The polls this week have been a disaster for McCain. In the most recent polls, Obama has now taken a lead in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.
4 straight polls in Florida put his lead between 4 and 8 points, outside the margin of error. In Virginia, the last three polls of likely voters put Obama's lead between 3 and 9 points. In both Ohio and North Carolina, the polls are more mixed but the average results has Obama in the lead in both. This is a seismic shift of huge proportions over the last two weeks.
And the polls show two reasons for it. First, more people trust Obama on the economic issues that have come to the front with the financial bailout. Second, Palin is absolutely killing the ticket. In state after state, the polls are showing that the initial positive reaction to Palin's nomination has become strongly negative. The other factor is that Obama's performance in the first debate seems to have settled any doubts that some undecided voters had on his readiness to be president.
This is a disaster for McCain. He absolutely must win Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina to have any chance of winning the election. If any of those states flip to Obama, he's done. Obama is going to win Iowa, New Mexico and Michigan. That puts him within 5 electoral votes of 270, which means if any other single state goes to Obama - New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada or any of the 4 mentioned above - he wins. And he now has leads in all 7 of those states while only needing to win one of them. Barring something that really shakes this race up, it may be over.
Comments
WHile I would like to breath a sigh of relief, there is a little more than 2 months of "anything can happen." Im hoping tonight's debate seals the deal on Palin.
Posted by: Lorax | October 2, 2008 4:05 PM
As a voter in MI, all I can say is, "Yay! I don't have to watch annoying McCain ad again!"
Of course, this could be the same as what he did the the first debate... trying to get the national media's attention off the major story of the hour/day/week/campaign.
Posted by: Umlud | October 2, 2008 4:13 PM
Correction, a little more than ONE month.
Posted by: Pither | October 2, 2008 4:13 PM
One month, Lorax. You've been reading those "election day reminders" from your friendly local GOP office, haven't you?
Posted by: fbeuks | October 2, 2008 4:15 PM
2 months? Elections are in just over 1 month. I keep finding myself waiting for the swiftboat-style blast coming from the conservative 527s....
Posted by: Lance | October 2, 2008 4:16 PM
Bummer, man.
Oh well, we'll always have: Palin 2012!
Posted by: heddle | October 2, 2008 4:21 PM
The whole toxic Palin thing is rather interesting, as Daily Kos keeps and keeps reminding people.
Early on, when Palin's record was being dissected by bloggers, concern trolls and "top notch strategists" kept arguing that focusing on Palin would not work, she was too well liked and popular, and besides her name is not at the top of the ticket. Palin was distracting them from the real battles that they needed to fight.
The bloggers have been proven correct, and the strategists incorrect.
Posted by: Reed A. Cartwright | October 2, 2008 4:21 PM
Now if only he'd do the same thing here in Colorado. My blood pressure would certainly appreciate a McCain-Ad-Free October!
Posted by: WScott | October 2, 2008 4:24 PM
This is great news for Obama supporters. I thought that Michigan would end up a blue state, but I'm surprised McCain gave up so easily.
It may all be over after tonight, maybe he'll just give up in Florida and Virginia too.
Posted by: JStein | October 2, 2008 4:26 PM
You've been reading my diary, haven't you? Please, PLEASE nominate Palin in 2012...and 2016, 2020, 2024. Hell, prop up her corpse in 3000 and run it; she'll be just as able a debater, and you won't have to worry about her giving bad answers in an interview.
Posted by: Shygetz | October 2, 2008 4:28 PM
Too many grants/papers/classes hanging over me I guess. Im still on Sept. time and early Sept. at that.....
Posted by: Lorax | October 2, 2008 4:37 PM
Colorado and Nevada are the primary battlegrounds in this election. If McCain manages to hold on to Ohio, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina, it all comes down to those two states and New Hampshire. At this point, McCain basically has to run the table of all these states while Obama only has to win one.
Posted by: Ed Brayton | October 2, 2008 4:45 PM
Fivethirtyeight has Colorado as solid Obama. On the other hand, Nate hasn't updated this week to show the change in NC and Fla to lean Obama. By my count, if Obama can hold his position in the states he leads he's coming in at about 360 electoral votes. McCain's only hope is for a terrorist attack or a serious outbreak of racism. Where is Willie Horton when you need him?
Posted by: kehrsam | October 2, 2008 5:01 PM
No, no...you're all wrong... As all true devotees to future history know, it'll be Nehemiah Scudder in 2012. (Shudder...)
Posted by: W. H. Heydt | October 2, 2008 5:08 PM
Watch for Bush to declare martial law and postpone elections indefinitely.
Sam, where can I get some of that armor-piercing underwear?
Posted by: Gingerbaker | October 2, 2008 5:09 PM
Giving the sweeping powers that Congress has granted Bush, don't be surprised if he declares Obama and Biden enemy combatants and has them sent to Gitmo.
Now where's my tinfoil hat...
Posted by: Reed A. Cartwright | October 2, 2008 5:18 PM
Am I tghe only guy who finds blogs to be well ahead of the traditional media outlets this time? In the case of McPa(l)in, the bloggers have been doing what they have, but the media in an effort to play catch up latched on to the story and went to town on it. The Dem campaign has been pretty quiet about it. And can we rest this phantom ability/skill - Leadership - to rest. It is an empty idea with very confused empirical history. I have heard some particularly stupid comments regarding leadership. Like one bozo from Florida (I heard it on hte radio so I don't know what he looks like) who said last year, "This is a time of crisis and change, and what we need is not simply experience, we need leadership, and that's why Rudy Giuliani strikes me as the right guy."
Posted by: rimpal | October 2, 2008 5:20 PM
It's possible that the race could be over, but in 2004, pollsters were predicting it would be an easy win for Kerry, to the point where Zogby was saying that "Not Bush" would win over Bush.
It all comes down to who actually goes to the polls to vote, not what the polls say.
Posted by: mathyoo | October 2, 2008 5:48 PM
I will only say this: Ignore the polls and VOTE.
Posted by: Paul Lundgren | October 2, 2008 5:51 PM
McCain has pulled out of Michigan because he has been told by his secret service on the ground that it is a done deal. All the proper fixes are in place, the machines have been rigged, the transmission circuits are manned by his people, the vote counters at certain significant precincts are his people, etc. Watch very carefully on election night to see where the announced vote differs significantly from the exit polls. I predict that they're going to make a major effort in PA this year.
Posted by: Karl | October 2, 2008 5:59 PM
The more I think about it, the more I believe Obama dodged a bullet when McCain selected Palin over Bobby Jindal as his sop for the Republican base. Think about it. Jindal's selection would have energized the religious right about as much as Palin (yes, he's a Catholic, but he's almost indistinguishable on the social issues from regular evangelicals), and he would have been greeted as a hero at the Republican Convention after doing, by all accounts, a competent job in preparing his state for Hurricane Gustav. And, of course, he would not have been a liability in front of the press.
Perhaps Jindal would have had the sense to say no anyway, given the way the tide was turning, but I for one am breathing a sigh of relief that he's not on the campaign trail right now.
Posted by: tacitus | October 2, 2008 6:19 PM
Reed A Cartwright wrote:
What are the bloggers saying about the VP debate tonight? Because I'm thinking it's going to be a complete train wreck. Or maybe a clown car wreck.
Posted by: Leni | October 2, 2008 6:47 PM
Leni, that depends on how much Palin can rely on canned answers. If you watch the Couric interviews, you'll note that Palin only really goes off the rails when Couric starts pressing her. The debate format seems designed to prevent that from happening, so it's entirely possible that absolutely nothing of note will occur (which will promptly be spun as a victory).
Posted by: schism | October 2, 2008 7:07 PM
As a Michigander, I'm relieved the poll numbers are so high for Obama: +3%, +10%, +13% in chronological order since 9/22. This state is full of Reagan Democrats, many of whom will not be able to pull the trigger for a black guy named Barack Hussein Obama, especially since they've always loved McCain and strongly identify with Palin give her small town charm and love of hunting. I don't a think poll lead less than 6% is safe.
Most of the people I associate with in my small town and the state in general are either Reagan Democrats or social conservatives and nearly all of them are convinced he's a Muslim and possibly a Muslim terrorist. They know I'm not a Christian and when I tell them that Obama is not only a Christian, but a Christian who claims to have had a conversion experience and believes in a historical Jesus that was resurrected, well they go ape-shit. Ape-shit that I actually believe him and the media rather than their viral emails and Fixed News.
I've been making my own electoral maps at Real Clear Politics and giving any swing state where an Obama lead of less than 4% goes instead to McCain. Two days ago Obama went over the hump at 272 for the first time since the conventions were over.
So I'd argue that since Obama is black, and given what we know the Republicans will do in terms of turning out the hate/wedge vote (this year in MI it's stem cell research) and denying people the chance to vote (long lines in Ohio in Dem precincts, none in GOP precincts, intimidation in Florida), Obama has a lot of work still left.
Just like Jackie Robinson, for him to succeed he can't be the average winning candidate, he has to be an exceptional candidate. I'm also betting the exit polls will look better for Obama than the actual vote count, just like what happened for Kerry, a first since exit polls became properly framed.
Posted by: Michael Heath | October 2, 2008 7:34 PM
Yes, schism. That's probably true. I'm both relieved and a little saddened by that, though.
Not saddened because canned debates are sad, but because the train wreck was starting to sound like fun.
Posted by: Leni | October 2, 2008 7:46 PM
Michael, do you factor in the claims that RCP is arbitrarily omitting polls that are producing bad numbers for McCain? See http://fivethirtyeight.com for details.
I think there is room for optimism that the turn out figures will help offset any racism that isn't already showing up in the polls. In one state (Ohio, I think?) the black vote is already way ahead of the optimistic projections and I have growing confidence that the Obama turn out machine will, er, turn out to be more impressive that most people expect.
It doesn't hurt to be cautious this far out, but the signs are looking good so far.
Posted by: tacitus | October 2, 2008 7:59 PM
Probably not. In 5 weeks, after the GOP loses more seats in the house, more seats in the Senate, and the White House, I expect there to be a serious rethinking of the party. The Aggressive Bible Thumping Idiot approach will be in ruins. I expect the party will reflect on the 6 years of catastrophe of GOP rule, change direction, and move back in the direction of reality.
Posted by: charles johnson | October 2, 2008 8:18 PM
As I contemplate the GOP notions of global warming denial, creationism, supply-side economics, christianism, anti-environmentalism, absurd deficit spending, refusal of accountability, unnecessary war, political distortions of science, opposition to basic healthcare, etc, I am reminded of this scene which might as well be describing the problems of the GOP:
That about sums it up for the Repubs. Why are you being thrown out of the House, Senate, and White House? You went full retard. Never go full retard.
Posted by: charles johnson | October 2, 2008 8:24 PM
While I hope your prediction is right, I left the party the night of the Palin nomination convinced the party will do the opposite. I was a life-long member, 29 years. The response to Palin by social conservatives, and the business-centric Republicans favoring the bail-out while conservatives oppossed it (where the "no's" will play well politically for years) cause me to believe the party will swing ever further towards social conservatives. They'll have to pull the populists still left in the Democratic party over if they're going to have any power, but I believe this is the direction they will go even if they are unsuccessful with that approach.
What has been become increasingly clear to me is that there is virtually no intellectual capital left in the party and the smart ones that remain have little power within the party and no clear path to secure more.
If there were some smart guys left; the Palin nomination would have been squelched at the Convention. My vetting of her the day of her announcement caused me to conclude that evening that she was an insane pick, a conclusion where the evidence has only validated such a conclusion.
Another piece of evidence that caused me to conclude this was when I did a cursory view of the best candidates to serve as VP that featured great economic skills to complement McCain's weakness in this area, they were all pro-choice. I don't see the GOP giving up that plank anytime soon since it remains the primary reason they get voter turn-out.
Posted by: Michael Heath | October 2, 2008 8:39 PM
Tacticus - thanks for the story. I did not know that. Today using my algorithm puts McCain in the winner's circle (any state where Obama's lead is less than 4% using RCP's average goes to McCain).
I find 538's website impossible to use in terms of creating your own electoral analysis given multiple state polling results.
Posted by: Michael Heath | October 2, 2008 8:55 PM
I actually hope you're right, Michael. I hope they go in the opposite direction, even more christianist, anti-science, pro-torture, pro-war, etc etc. I hope they have a purity purge and kick all the "RINO"s out and become a totally hardcore fundy idiot party. I hope it happens because then the dems would have more time to try to fix the wreckage from the GOP Congress and Presidency. But I think if they do that it'll be brief, because they'll lose even harder, and parties out of power will generally try to make themselves more popular, not less.
Posted by: charles johnson | October 2, 2008 8:59 PM
Leni is a train wreck that keeps happening. But as usual, she was off in her predictions about this occasion being one. She clearly doesn't like vivacious young women - hoping against hope they will be dumb. Palin is ignorant, but a quick study. She will probably always have bad judgement, but hey, so will Leni.
Posted by: mothergross | October 3, 2008 12:09 AM
She may be a quick study of the McCain campaign talking points, but she still doesn't know very much else, that was obvious.
Posted by: tacitus | October 3, 2008 2:14 AM
Wow, I never thought my state (VA) would be considered a battleground. Obama is polling slightly ahead here, too. How very cool.
Posted by: Adrienne | October 3, 2008 9:02 AM
The poll stuff concerns me because people often don't tell the truth to pollsters. I am reminded of Doug Wilder's gubernatorial campaign in my home state of Virginia. He had big leads in all the polls and even the exit polls gave him a big win. However, the actual vote count was very close. Whether this is because many white folk cannot bring themselves to pull the lever for a black man, I don't know. But the Obama folks would be ill advised to celebrate yet.
Posted by: Joe T. | October 3, 2008 10:09 AM