Ed Brayton is a journalist, commentator and speaker. He is the co-founder and president of 
This is absolutely hilarious. Markos provides a picture of Bill O'Reilly's electoral map (see the original here). Picture below the fold.
The blue states are ones he thinks are safely in Obama's favor, the red states in McCain's favor and the rest are "up for grabs." Here are the average polls in some of those "up for grabs" states on his map:
Pennsylvania: +11 for Obama
Iowa: +11.4 for Obama
Virginia: +7.6 for Obama
Wisconsin: +10.6 for Obama
Minnesota: +10.8 for Obama
Oregon: +15.2 for Obama
Colorado: +7.2 for Obama
New Mexico: +7.4 for Obama
New Hampshire: +12.6 for Obama
Michigan: +15.5 for Obama
And the average in some of those solidly red states:
Indiana: +1.4 for Obama
North Carolina: +1.3 for Obama
Montana: +3.4 for McCain
Georgia: +4.2 for McCain
So by O'Reilly's "reasoning" if Obama is leading by more than 7 points, those are toss up states. And if he's only leading by 1 or 2 points, those are clearly going to McCain. I love Bill O'Reilly. If you had to invent a character as ridiculous as him, you couldn't do it. No one would believe it. Welcome to the no brain zone.
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Comments
What I really get a kick out of his assigning Oregon to the up for grabs category. McCain is so far behind there that the incumbent Rethuglican senator, Gordon Smith, is all but claiming that he is really an Obama supporter!
Posted by: SLC | October 30, 2008 9:33 AM
Haven't Oregon's electoral votes gone to the Democratic candidate pretty much every election since the Bering Land Bridge closed up?
Posted by: Alex, FCD | October 30, 2008 9:43 AM
Having watched a lot of the various sites that track polling, I'd be surprised if North Carolina isn't called for Obama within an hour of the polls closing. It's almost as if he took a map of 4 years ago at this time and put new faces on it.
Posted by: Odie | October 30, 2008 9:44 AM
If you had to invent a character as ridiculous as him, you couldn't do it.
I don't know; Stanley Kubrick came pretty close with Jack D. Ripper and his precious bodily fluids...
Posted by: schism | October 30, 2008 9:50 AM
Re Alex, FCD
I lived in Eugene for 2 years a million years ago and at that time, Oregon preferred moderate Republicans like Tom McCall, Mark Hatfield, and Bob Packwood. Apparently what has happened is that there has been an influx of born agains into the state which has skewed the Rethuglican party far to the right, making things uncomfortable for folks like Gordon Smith who now have to try to cater to both the inhabitants of the Willamette Valley (e,.g. Portland to Eugene) who lean center and left and to the inhabitants of the rest of the state who lean right and far right.
Posted by: SLC | October 30, 2008 9:51 AM
They should call his show the O'Reilly Fudge Factor! Hey-o!
Posted by: Aaron Golas | October 30, 2008 9:52 AM
Now to be fair, Billo nearly got it right.
He just got bored halfway through (must be his short attention span). Just color IN & NC blue and the rest of the states, if not red, are blue. See he was really,really close.
You get a D- minus, Billo. You must concentrate harder! -DJ
Posted by: DingoJack | October 30, 2008 9:56 AM
He's banking on enough people getting spooked by the last week onslaught of ads and emails portraying Obama as a Negro Muslim that hates America, will ban the bible, will force children into homosexual indoctrination, and wants infidels to die in plane crashes, jumping from high buildings, or from a high dose of radiation.
Posted by: soboco | October 30, 2008 12:32 PM
As a somewhat recent transplant to Indiana, I would say that Billo's call regarding Indiana as "solid red" (using that term loosely) is probably correct.
Senator Obama's campaign has a great ground game here in Indiana which is probably going to make this state really close. I don't think that the networks will be too quick to call this state instantly after the polls close (remember, sports fans, that there are two sections in Indiana that are in the Central Time Zone) like has happened in past elections. But in the end, this bible-belt state of the north will probably remain red; TEH STOOPID is just too numerous here.
I really would have loved to see all the states north of the Ohio river turn blue.
Posted by: Engr Tony | October 30, 2008 12:34 PM
Haven't Oregon's electoral votes gone to the Democratic candidate pretty much every election since the Bering Land Bridge closed up?
Oregon voted almost exclusively Republican from its founding until 1984 with just a few exceptions. Since then it has voted Democratic, for president anyway. I live in the conservative, southern part of the state, far from Portland, and Obama is poised to do better in this area than any Democrat since FDR. There is zero chance that McCain will win Oregon. Why O'Reilly wants to look like an idiot is anybody's guess.
Posted by: tomh | October 30, 2008 12:47 PM
I've identified the formula used to call these states, and it has nothing to do with current polling:
States Kerry won by 6% + in 2004: Blue
States Bush won by 9% + in 2004: Red
Other states: Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight.com has an electoral history that makes this easy to do. At least O'Reilly shifted the center about a point and a half to the Democrats. He could have put Missouri and Virginia in McCain's column as well.
Posted by: Odie | October 30, 2008 12:51 PM
As one who has lived in the state for the majority of my life-I don't see us as solid red this time. Indiana was always a state the republicans could rely upon in the past-but those days appear to be over. I think it will be a very close race in Indiana for a change.
Which part of the state do you live in, Engr Tony? There are parts of the state that the Klan still lives-and then there are the other areas of the state. I hope the "less-American" parts of Indiana vote in greater numbers;-)
BTW Barack will be in Highland, IN tomorrow night at 7 pm; which means I have to try to talk my kids into only trick-or-treating for just 45 minutes so we can get to the rally.
Posted by: Rev. AJB | October 30, 2008 2:41 PM
Why exactly would anyone take anything O'Reilly said that involved numbers seriously? Since when is Faux News concerned with data? Aren't data elitist?
Posted by: Josh | October 30, 2008 2:43 PM
Which part of the state do you live in, Engr Tony?
Rev. - I live in the Evansville area (hence my referral to the different time zone) and I know that the Obama campaign has an active office down here. I think that Senator Biden is due to make a stop down here in the waning days of the campaign.
As one of those "less American" voters, I voted early! I really do hope to see a solid block of blue states north of the Ohio River. But I'll still be very happy with a final Obama win, even if we cannot drag Indiana along.
Posted by: Engr Tony | October 30, 2008 3:09 PM
"Why O'Reilly wants to look like an idiot is anybody's guess."
One has to assume that's what they pay him to do, because otherwise there's no explanation for O'Reilly at all.
Posted by: Moopheus | October 30, 2008 3:26 PM
"So by O'Reilly's "reasoning" if Obama is leading by more than 7 points, those are toss up states."
I think it would be more accurate to say if Obama is in the lead by less than 16%, then it's a toss-up on this map.
Posted by: D-Notice | October 30, 2008 4:25 PM
Billo the Blowhard is probably setting up his post-election expose about how ACORN stole the election. Otherwise, how could his map have been so wrong?
But this is the guy who claims he's "poked holes in the Big Bang theory". I'm sure he has some math to back that up.Posted by: Taz | October 30, 2008 4:59 PM
But this is the guy who claims he's "poked holes in the Big Bang theory". I'm sure he has some math to back that up.
Oh, that's right. I forgot.
Posted by: Josh | October 30, 2008 5:25 PM
Looking at Billo's map now (6:30PM EDT), it's filled in except for 6 states. Looks like he stopped being bored and finished coloring in his map.
Posted by: Hanspeter | October 30, 2008 6:32 PM
I love how they're procuring these new "closer" polls by calling random cellphone numbers. So let me get this straight: People who A) have a cellphone, and B) have time to answer some stupid survey because they're NOT busy working 3 jobs to try to stay alive, and C) don't mind wasting the minutes to do so, are "closer" to 50% likely to vote for McCain? Does anybody but me smell landslide?
This is on a par with the (in)famous Atlantic telephone poll that predicted the 60/40 Landon victory over Roosevelt, and for the same reason. If it does anything to discredit these damned polls for an election or two, it can only be good!
Posted by: Lurkbot | October 30, 2008 7:00 PM
Seems like O'Reilly is really counting on the bradley effect.
Posted by: Kel | October 30, 2008 7:22 PM
Did O'Reilly not get the memo that McCain was giving up on Michigan as a lost cause? He certainly hasn't got any closer to Obama here since then
Posted by: G. Shelley | October 30, 2008 7:24 PM
I dunno Ed. I went to that link, and above McCain's head are buttons for Real Clear Politics and Politico. These aren't even alleged to be O'Reilly's picks, as far as I can tell.
Posted by: doctorgoo | October 30, 2008 8:05 PM
Posted by: James Hanley | October 30, 2008 8:35 PM
@ James Hanley:
I don't know what made me say that--election jitters maybe. Of course you're right.
Posted by: Lurkbot | October 30, 2008 9:59 PM
Engr Tony-I live at the other end of US 41; back in the central time zone-specifically Schererville. My wife is from E'ville, and now I understand the reason you feel the way you do about our state;-) The only thing they have over Kentucky is shoes-ha,ha! Make sure to get some Shyler's Bar-b-que for me-it's on Green River Road south of the Lloyd.
Seriously, we were down there at the beginning of the month for a family funeral, and I could not get over how backwards people were thinking about Obama. And both my wife's parents and her sister's family had McCain/Palin signs in their yards. Due to it being a funeral, we said nothing.
My brother has is worse than you-he's a doctor in Tell City-and one of maybe five Obama supporters in Perry County.
Posted by: Rev. AJB | October 30, 2008 11:39 PM
As of... way later than I thought it was, the map has Obama winning the College with six gray states (NC, FL, MO, NV, IN, and OH)
Posted by: nedlum | October 31, 2008 1:00 AM
Medium - maybe the headline should be changed:
"Bill O'Reilly wakes up, smells coffee. Film at 11." - ;) DJ
Posted by: DingoJack | October 31, 2008 1:33 AM
...now I understand the reason you feel the way you do about our state...
We relocated from the Chicago area. You have no IDEA as to what a culture shock this was. I couldn't believe that this state doesn't even allow for alcohol package sales on Sunday or allow its residents to purchase and have delivered wine from out-of-state wineries.
Senator Biden will be in our area this Saturday and I have friends active in the Obama campaign who are working their tails off to flip this state. It may likely be close and who knows...
Obama is going to need some great turnout numbers from Indianapolis, Lake County, and some of the counties that are home to Indiana's larger universities.
Posted by: Engr Tony | October 31, 2008 9:48 AM
Wow, Obama must really be flogging the pants of McCain, Bilbo's map now shows Obama winning the election, is the sky still blue? Will Bilbo still have a job at Fox after disclosing some "almost accurate" information?
Posted by: Doug Little | October 31, 2008 5:42 PM