Ed Brayton is a journalist, commentator and speaker. He is the co-founder and president of 
Just finished poker session #4 and booked another win, $207. That was after I had lunch with a longtime reader, Richard, which was very cool. Meeting another one this evening and a third on Thursday night. This session of poker was really up and down for me. I got myself into a really bad situation on one hand when I had A 4 of hearts and the flop came with two hearts. Player 1 bets $12, player 2 raises to $50 and I stupidly called the $50.
Player 1 then went all in for another $35, player 2 folded and at that point I was pot committed, having to put in $35 to win almost $200. The flush didn't hit and his top two pair held up. A good example of how making one bad decision can lead to having to make another one. That dropped my buy-in of $300 in half.
It was a real roller coaster ride for the next couple hours. I built my stack back up to about even when I picked up K Q suited on the button. I raised to $12 and got one caller, the big blind. Flop came king high, he checks, I bet $30 and he went all in for $55 more. I called and he was slow playing pocket aces and I doubled him up.
That dropped me back to about $100 down and then I hit a big hand. I had A 10 on the button and got called by the small blind, an Australian woman. The flop came A A 5. She checked, I bet $35 and she called. Turn was a blank, she bet $50, I bumped it to $100 and she called. I put her all in on the river and she called, turning over A 8. That pumped me back up and I cruised from there, winning a few more small pots before deciding it was time for a nap. So here's the running total so far:
Poker: +802
Food: -226
After my nap, I'm going to meet another reader and then head back to the poker room for a long night session. If they get a 2/5 no limit game going I may jump into it. Last night they started a list for one but didn't have enough to start the game.
Comments
If that's Mr. richardthughes, send him back@! We nned a new Tardalogue, and we need it now!
Good luck Ed.
Posted by: J-Dog | January 13, 2009 9:41 PM
Keep up your posts, Ed, I'm having a vicarious Vegas trip through this. And I'm playing better poker than usual!
Posted by: itchy | January 13, 2009 10:42 PM
Nope, not Richard Hughes, though I did get to meet him in Chicago a year and a half ago. This is a different Richard.
Posted by: Ed Brayton | January 14, 2009 3:51 AM
Uh, I've never quite understood "pot-committed" in hold-em (being a 5 card draw and 7 card stud person myself). Can you explain why it is better to keep in a hand well beyond your statistical ability to actually win it, since you know they'll read you the same once the cards are shown?
Posted by: Joe Shelby | January 14, 2009 11:27 AM
So instead of calling after the flop, should you, ex ante, have folded or re-raised?
Posted by: CJColucci | January 14, 2009 11:53 AM
I'm not a serious poker player but "pot-committed" is a floating concept that varies with how tight a player may be. At the beginning of a hand, you consider bets based on having to bet $X to pick up $X for as many players as you can get to call. If you are not the favorite to win the hand, you don't want to keep pouring in money because your expected winnings will be less than what you bet.
Once the pot has a sizable amount of money compared to what you've been raised, your expected winnings has changed considerably. Say the pot has 9 * $X already in it, and to call would cost you $X. Even if you feel your chances of winning are around 15%, you will only need to hit 1 of 8 pots to come out ahead, making your expected winnings on that last $X (the only amount you have control over since your previous bets are committed to the pot already) greater than $0.
No one will force you to make that last bet of $X, but it would be foolish to lay it down if you've estimated your shot at winning correctly. Showing your cards at that point is probably no worse than folding since a fold would be either really dumb (if you would've won the hand) or simply confirm that they indeed outplayed you on that hand.
Posted by: Odie | January 14, 2009 11:58 AM
I'm the Richard that Ed had lunch with and as I sit here at a restaurant having lunch at the Wynn, I have one request for Ed. Please ask the seed overlords to make the web site mobile phone freindly.
Pretty please!
Oh, btw its 65 and sunny here.
Posted by: rmp | January 14, 2009 2:58 PM
A lot of people use the phrase "pot committed" to mean "I've already put in so much money that I can't fold now." Used in that sense, the phrase is a fallacy and a beginner's mistake. If the odds are against you at this point, then you should fold. The past is past.
I don't think that Ed meant it in that sense, because he made a (statistically) good call. His chances of winning exceeded the contribution he would have to make to the pot. There were 9 hearts left and 47 unknown card (19% or "9 to 38 odds") and he had to put in $35 to make the pot $235 (15% or "35 to 200 odds").
19% > 15%. Call.
Posted by: Chris Bell | January 14, 2009 6:19 PM