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brayton_headshot_wre_1443.jpg Ed Brayton is a journalist, commentator and speaker. He is the co-founder and president of Michigan Citizens for Science and co-founder of The Panda's Thumb. He has written for such publications as The Bard, Skeptic and Reports of the National Center for Science Education, spoken in front of many organizations and conferences, and appeared on nationally syndicated radio shows and on C-SPAN. Ed is also a Fellow with the Center for Independent Media and the host of Declaring Independence, a one hour weekly political talk show on WPRR in Grand Rapids, Michigan.(static)

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Another Crazy Poker Hand

Posted on: July 5, 2009 9:23 AM, by Ed Brayton

Here's a crazy hand I played on Friday night at the casino. It's a $1/$2 no limit hold em game and I'm in the big blind with As Kh (the ace of spades and the king of hearts). The player to my left raises to $15 preflop and only has about $75 in front of him. At that point I immediately plan to reraise him all in, but then the player on the button raises to $45. I think for a moment and decide that since I'm out of position I'm just going to call that bet and see what the flop brings. The player to my left calls as well.

The flop comes out A 10 5, all hearts. I've got top pair with the top kicker plus the nut flush draw. The player who reraised on the button has been playing pretty tight poker so I'm putting him on the following range of hands: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ. I don't figure he puts in a reraise with any hands other than those. So I decide to bet out right into him and find out where he's at. I bet $70, about half the pot.

The player to my left folds and the player on the button goes into the tank for a couple minutes. Finally he calls me, no raise. At that point I figure he's probably got AK like I have, or AQ with the queen of hearts. My reasoning: If he has AA he probably reraises there to see if I've really got the flush already. If he has KK, he probably folds. So I've narrowed his hands down a bit further.

The turn is an 8 of clubs, completely meaningless on this board. I bet $200 and he again goes into the tank. He's really pondering what to do here and he's clearly trying to get some information out of me so I decide to intentionally give him some. He asked how much I had left and I told him (it was $145). I also said, "And if you want to put me all in, I'm calling."

That seemed to shake him up a bit. "Really?" he asked? "Yes. I'm not laying down this hand, period." Even under the worst case scenario, if he's holding AA -- which I don't think he is -- I've still got the redraw on him to hit the flush. And I've already got $315 in what would be a $675 pot if he decided to put me in for my last $145.

More likely he has AK, in which case a split is the worst I can do and I've got the only chance to win the pot outright, or AQ, in which case I've got him dominated about 15-1. Either way, I'm not going away (which actually means I should probably have just gone all in after the turn). After a good two minutes of thinking, he says, "Okay, I'm gonna put you all in." Call.

I had him read perfectly. He had the AQ with the queen of hearts, so he is drawing to only three cards, the three remaining queens. Of course, I wouldn't be telling this story if he didn't spike the queen on the river to take down a pot worth nearly a thousand dollars. I had him nearly as dominated as you can get in poker and he still won.

I didn't play the hand perfectly. If I had just moved all in after the turn, does he still make that move? Or does he decide that I must already have the flush or the hand that I did have and fold rather than reraising? Quite possibly. And that's what I should have done. If you're going to be pot committed anyway, why not move it in anyway? But I had the hand read perfectly and I got my money in with a 15-1 advantage. You can't really put yourself in a better situation than that.

But that, as they say, is poker. I rebought and did manage to come back to only be down about $100 for the session, which after that beat felt like a victory.

Here's another crazy hand at the same table that I wasn't involved in but got to witness. A young girl, a good solid player, is up against Billy, an older guy who probably isn't known to her but is to me (Billy is a local legend, a serious gambler who has been known to wager thousands of dollars on a golf game despite being better than a 20 handicap). And this is how the hand goes down.

The flop is 3 5 6, all diamonds. Billy is in early position and he checks the flop. She bets $25, he raises to $75 and she goes all in for another $30 or so (she didn't have a big stack, he did). He calls instantly and says, "If I lose this pot, I'm leaving the table." He turns over A 2 of diamonds for the nut flush. She groans and turns over the J 7 of diamonds.

The turn is a blank but the river is the 4 of diamonds, giving them both straight flushes - him the low end, her the high end. But here's the sad part: This hand didn't qualify for the bad beat jackpot because she only used one of her cards for the straight flush and you have to use both your cards. It also didn't qualify for a bingo win (a straight flush to the 5 pays out the person who has it $150) because he couldn't use the highest hand on the board (a 6 high straight flush, not a 5 high straight flush).

If it had qualified for the bad beat jackpot, Billy would have won about $17,000, the girl would have won about $8500 and everyone else at the table would have won about $1000. Alas, she won the pot and that was all. And true to his word, Billy got up and left the table (he wasn't angry, he just figured it was time for a break).

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Comments

1

Poker players do occasionally speak English don't they?

Posted by: GaryB, FCD | July 5, 2009 1:19 PM

2

I can't criticize this play at all. You read him perfectly.

I wonder what he thought you had? His play is the play that appears supect. He should have put you on the same range of hands, and AQ would be on the low side. He should knwo he's probably behind, especially if he's a tight player.

Then, with an all heart flop you may have very well have a made flush. Absent the missing heart king, which is very likely to be in your hand, he made risky move. I don't think he would fold. His oepning $15 raise (20% 0f his stack) indicates he's going all in any way and you sure as heck can't fold with your hand.

Not only that, but you didn't want him to fold. You wanted all his money in the pot. If this hand was to be run again face up, there's no question you'd still want him to get all his chips in.

"Poker players do occasionally speak English don't they?"

"Bad beat" is a universal language;-)

Posted by: Joe McFaul | July 5, 2009 2:58 PM

3

I agree with Joe that you played the hand well. A big move on the turn would have potentially chased him out - you certainly wanted all his chips in the pot. However, I don't think a big move out of position would have phased him given his poor reading skills.

Speaking of bad beats, I watched my brother in law flop rolled up quad J's (A-J-J) at the final table of $20,000 tourney and lost to A-A river A. The winner didn't say a word the entire hand and no bad beat j'pots in tourneys. His poker hasn't been the same since.

Posted by: ixnu | July 5, 2009 11:35 PM

4

Apparently not.

Posted by: GaryB, FCD | July 6, 2009 12:08 PM

5

Bummer Ed. Kudos on nearly climbing back out of the hole after the rebuy.

I remember this one time. There was me, that is Abby, and my three droogs, that is Pete, George, and Dim. Dim being really dim, and we sat in the Korova Milkbar making up our rassoodocks what to do with the evening, a flip dark chill winter bastard though dry. You can imagine the rest.

[Looks at GaryB expectantly]

Posted by: Abby Normal | July 6, 2009 12:50 PM

6

You played hand #1 terribly. Shove all in pre-flop if your stack is under 150 big blinds (in this case $300), or if bigger, make a significant 3-bet, and if called shove any flop with an A or K in it.

"I think for a moment and decide that since I'm out of position I'm just going to call that bet and see what the flop brings." this is the exact wrong conclusion... you shove/re-raise BECAUSE you're out of position. 1. The shove nullifies your positional disadvantage, and 2. the odds of the raiser having AA or KK are cut in half by you having AK, so he's most likely got 77-QQ (which you have extremely positive expected value against).

2nd hand... yawn.

Feel free to post this on twoplustwo.com if you need to see a swarm of people agreeing with me on this...

Posted by: Ben | July 6, 2009 12:53 PM

7

Doyle and everybody else who knows anything about poker will tell you that playing the hand correctly is the thing, win or lose.

That never makes me feel better while reaching for the wallet to rebuy.

Posted by: BobbyEarle | July 7, 2009 12:48 AM

8

I agree with Ben. Being out of position with your stack size compared to the previous bets/pot size made this a very easy pre-flop shove.

However, once you were in your post-turn situation, I believe you did exactly the correct thing by enticing the other player to put more money in rather than possibly scare him out with a shove at that time.

Posted by: Ken Shipe | July 8, 2009 11:44 AM

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