Ed Brayton is a journalist, commentator and speaker. He is the co-founder and president of 
Nate Silver analyzes the polling data on Maine's gay marriage referendum (where a yes vote overturns the law allowing gay marriage and a no vote upholds that law):
A statistical analysis I conducted last month, which was based on the results from previous gay marriage referenda in other states, gave the Yes on 1 side just an 11 percent chance of prevailing, although the fraction rises to 32 percent after an ad-hoc adjustment for the fact that this is an off-year election. In spite of the PPP poll, I'm not especially persuaded to deviate substantially from those numbers: the polling average still favors the 'No' side, albeit narrowly; the 'No' side seems to have run the superior campaign, and the cellphone issue may be worth a point or two. The tight polling, certainly, should keep everybody on their toes, and gay marriage could quite easily be overturned. But I'd still put the Yes on 1 side as about a 5-to-2 underdog.
Let's hope he's right.
Politics
Comments
My fingers are crossed. Fairness in ME would go a long way to building momentum elsewhere and overturning the prop 8 fiasco in CA.
Posted by: MikeMa | November 3, 2009 10:54 AM
I hope so too.
Posted by: Imrryr | November 3, 2009 11:12 AM
As long as we're hoping, crossing fingers (or praying if that's your thing) lets add "yes" on Washington's Ref. 71 to the list. And if you live in Maine or Washington, you can do more than hope. You get to make a difference. So please vote... now... I mean it. The internet will still be here when you get back.
Posted by: Abby Normal | November 3, 2009 11:43 AM
Abby beat me to it!
Did anyone catch Colbert's piece on Ref 71 on Monday?
Posted by: JMax | November 3, 2009 12:32 PM
Abby Normal @ 3 - you bring up a good point advocating voting. I generally assume that the commentors in this forum vote. My first experience argues otherwise.
I came to be 18 in 1978, a year when MI had a proposal on the ballot raising the drinking age from 18 to 21. I figured that was enough motivation to get everyone in my age group with the exception of committed tee-totalers out to vote. Yet I discovered after the vote that my age-group was the least likely to vote. I therefore resigned myself to continuing to use a fake ID.
Posted by: Michael Heath | November 3, 2009 1:13 PM
Daily KOS has a list of races to watch. They include both Maine and Washington with the odd note that while both measures use almost identical language, they are asked in such a way as to make 'No' the correct answer in Maine and 'Yes' correct in Washington. To me, if I wanted to pander to the stupidity of hate, Maine's measure is worded better.
Posted by: MikeMa | November 3, 2009 1:13 PM
Voted Yes in Washington - dropped off the ballot a few days ago. I'm nervous about both ME and here is WA, but hoping for the best.
Posted by: Gonzo | November 3, 2009 1:32 PM
Voted yes on Ref 71 weeks ago (vote by mail is a little bit weird like that) and frankly, I hope the "No on 71" goes down in flames. Seriously, it's a carpetbagger, crazy fundies, and a wife-beater. That alone should tell anyone that the only possible answer is to vote yes.
Posted by: JustaTech | November 3, 2009 2:39 PM
I'll be doing my part by voting later, I'm just waiting for my mom to get off work so we can go together. My uncle (her brother) is gay and has been in a committed relationship for many years, we both feel pretty strongly about it.
Posted by: Noadi | November 3, 2009 3:40 PM
As of 8:30 pm Eastern Time, Talking Points Memo shows the pro-equality vote ahead 73-27.
Posted by: Pierce R. Butler | November 3, 2009 8:32 PM
Andrew Sullivan's promoting this Bangor Daily News webpage for up to the minute info. As of 8:59 EST, 54% to 45% for equality, 5% of precincts reporting. Nope, 51% to 49% with 17% reporting.
Posted by: Michael Heath | November 3, 2009 9:57 PM
Anti-gay 52.75%
Pro-gay 47.25%
87% of precincts reporting
Posted by: Michael Heath | November 4, 2009 6:25 AM
I'd say Silver is looking a little tarnished this morning...
Posted by: peter | November 4, 2009 8:15 AM
Sadness, I was really hoping for the Maine law to stay, especially after reading Bill in Portland Maine on DailyKos. On the upside though, here in Kalamazoo, MI our equality law passed despite all the fear mongering by people who said it would mean men would just be able to go into women's bathrooms if they were dressed as women. Yes, that is what they seriously said, I was so sad none of them came to my house to try and convince me! ;)
Posted by: Rob Monkey | November 4, 2009 8:15 AM
Posted by: James Hanley | November 4, 2009 8:42 AM
At least the Washington referendum won. So Washington and Maine both have domestic partnerships now. It definitely sucks that Maine was the 31st consecutive state to put SSM on the ballot and lose. But it's still a step up from just a few years ago.
Posted by: Brandon | November 4, 2009 8:55 AM
Personally I think it is the combination of the word "marriage" and older, more conservative voters that fuels these setbacks. We've seen in the same time period an increase in states with domestic partnerships/civil unions, we've also seen consistent polls amongst younger Americans that show massive support for both same sex marriage and civil unions.
In a parallel case study observation, I've been teaching a presidential election project for the last five years where students have to create their own platforms, establish stances on major issues, and then campaign for election based on those issues. In a very conservative area I have gone from perhaps a third of the campaigns supporting civil unions and maybe one supporting SSM to virtually all of the campaigns supporting at least civil unions, half supporting gay marriage, and even the more conservative campaigns arguing for civil unions for all and letting churches decide who gets "married."
I hope this is evidence for a positive future...
Posted by: dogmeatib | November 4, 2009 9:04 AM
In several states, the majority of voters favor equal rights for gays but have some immense emotional attachment to that sacred eight letter word. The gut instinct response is to say, "We will not settle for anything less than full equality!" But we could help the most people the most efficiently by pushing for civil unions and domestic partnerships in as many states as possible, instead of donating campaign contributions to SSM ballots which lose literally 100% of the time.
Posted by: Brandon | November 4, 2009 9:22 AM
Well fuck...
Posted by: Abby Normal | November 4, 2009 9:29 AM
@Rob Monkey
I was pleased with the Kazoo result too. I did get to 'converse' with one of the people opposing the bill - last week, outside Olde Peninsula. According to her, a great evil would fall on Kalamazoo if the bill were to pass. She was disappointed when I disagreed with her, to say the least.
I'll be looking overhead for roiling clouds to see if she was correct.
Posted by: dean | November 4, 2009 9:33 AM
GODDAMNIT! Though it's heartening to hear about Washington and Kalamazoo and even dogmeatib's election classes. We're getting there. I just wish it didn't take so damned long.
Posted by: peaches | November 4, 2009 9:53 AM
dogmeatib,
I think it is reason to hope for the future. National Election Study data show a distinct age-related trend in support for equal rights for homosexuals. In another decade, when today's current blue hairs, for whom the concept of gay marriage is as bewildering as space flight must have been to someone born in 1890 (prior to even airplanes), have passed away, the results should begin to shift.
Keep in mind it's not just about absolute numbers, but about who votes, and old people vote while young people don't.
Posted by: James Hanley | November 4, 2009 10:35 AM