Ed Brayton is a journalist, commentator and speaker. He is the co-founder and president of 
Articles like this one always make me laugh. Yet another fundie "scholar" has figured out the real date of the rapture and convinced lots and lots of credulous idiots of that.
Harold Camping lets out a hearty chuckle when he considers the people who believe the world will end in 2012."That date has not one stitch of biblical authority," Camping says from the Oakland office where he runs Family Radio, an evangelical station that reaches listeners around the world. "It's like a fairy tale."
The real date for the end of times, he says, is in 2011.
Yes, the notion of "Biblical authority" here should be read in the same sense that one read "Dr. Seussian authority."
Camping, 88, has scrutinized the Bible for almost 70 years and says he has developed a mathematical system to interpret prophecies hidden within the Good Book. One night a few years ago, Camping, a civil engineer by trade, crunched the numbers and was stunned at what he'd found: The world will end May 21, 2011.
This is his second attempt at pinpointing the date:
This is not the first time Camping has made a bold prediction about Judgment Day.On Sept. 6, 1994, dozens of Camping's believers gathered inside Alameda's Veterans Memorial Building to await the return of Christ, an event Camping had promised for two years. Followers dressed children in their Sunday best and held Bibles open-faced toward heaven.
But the world did not end. Camping allowed that he may have made a mathematical error. He spent the next decade running new calculations, as well as overseeing a media company that has grown significantly in size and reach.
"We are now translated into 48 languages and have been transmitting into China on an AM station without getting jammed once," Camping said. "How can that happen without God's mercy?"
Or maybe....God's trying to make you look like an asshole when you get this wrong for the second time because you were deluded to learn your lesson the first time.
I propose that on May 22, 2011, when nothing happened the day before at all, Camping and all of his followers should be forced to turn over all of their property to me. Let's see just how committed they are to their beliefs.
Politics
Comments
And no one could see that coming...
Posted by: Josh | January 4, 2010 9:06 AM
I sure hope this guy was a better at civil engineering than prophecy. The mind strains to imagine what it would mean for roads and sewers to fail on the same level as apocalyptic prophecy. Your toilet would have to not simply fail to flush, but actually render you constipated. Reliably. And have this become the standard in sewer design for thousands of years.
Posted by: DaveL | January 4, 2010 9:13 AM
I'm sure I once came across the story of a guy who took the idea of calculating the end of the world from the Bible seriously. He laboured for years checking and rechecking his calculations and eventually got an answer, which was several decades in the past.
Posted by: Matty | January 4, 2010 9:20 AM
I better tell my brother the new date. He'll be pretty pissed to die on his birthday.
Posted by: llDayo | January 4, 2010 9:31 AM
As I recall from Martin Gardner's excellent Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science, the Jehovah's Witnesses used the Great Pyramid to determine that the end of the world would occur in 1914. When that date passed, they announced that Jesus had established an invisible reign.
It's possible that they still believe this.
Posted by: Vincent Manis | January 4, 2010 9:43 AM
I've marked the date on my calendar and programmed it into my DVR, I'm looking forward to it. Do you think it's gonna be a big production Armageddon like ending or something more subtle? I'm hoping for fire and brimstone.
Posted by: Dogbert | January 4, 2010 9:47 AM
The 2012 end-date comes from (a glitch in) a Pagan calendar. I was wondering when the Christians would get around to seeing the stupidity of that.
Also, if the world is supposed to end in 2011, doesn't that mean the Rapture already happened about fove or six years ago?
"We are now translated into 48 languages and have been transmitting into China on an AM station without getting jammed once," Camping said. "How can that happen without God's mercy?"
Because those inscruitable Chinese are letting Camping do all their anti-Christian propaganda for them?
And what's with that bit about Camping's followers holding their Bibles open to the sky? Do they think they need to remind God what's in the book he allegedly wrote?
There really is no bottom to stupid, is there? Have any of his followers stood up to question his methods after his first end-date prediction turned out to be wrong?
Posted by: Raging Bee | January 4, 2010 9:48 AM
I propose that on May 22, 2011, we have a party to celebrate the departure of all those who got 'raptured'. Imagine what a nice world it would be without them!
But one question: will they give away their material wealth before going? I could use a new pair of shoes.
Posted by: Rodney | January 4, 2010 9:49 AM
Is it a glitch? the little I've read on the subject from archaeologists suggests that long count inscriptions can include cycles far longer than the 13 b'aktun that will end in 2012 without any problems.
Posted by: Matty | January 4, 2010 10:04 AM
Wow, just wow. These are my countrymen.
When I have children I think I'll have to tell them the good news is that they'll be smart, the bad news is that these people will be their neighbors.
Posted by: Nigel Patel | January 4, 2010 10:04 AM
The Simpsons parodied these nutters in the episode in which Homer calculates the date and time of the rapture. That episode should be required watching for anyone who's considering calculating the date of the end times.
Posted by: Mandrake | January 4, 2010 10:32 AM
It's not a glitch, it's just that they had only done their calculations so far in advance. They'd just started the calculations for the next cycle when they all got sick and died.
Posted by: MadGastronomer | January 4, 2010 10:33 AM
I second or third the idea that the world will be much more pleasant without these idiots. Farewell and don't let the door hit you on the way out. Party at my place on 21 May 2011.
Posted by: MikeMa | January 4, 2010 10:37 AM
MadGastronomer, I don't have a proper reference to hand but this suggests that while it was rare at least one Mayan inscription gave a date 400 million years in the future so at least some of the calculations were done.
I'm also curious where you got "got sick and died" the most popular hypothesis for the abandonment of the classic Maya cities is a combination of drought and deforestation.
Posted by: Matty | January 4, 2010 10:44 AM
Oh, c'mon, everybody knows the real reason:
www.gocomics.com/nonsequitur/2009/12/07/
fusilier,
James 2:24
Posted by: fusilier | January 4, 2010 10:58 AM
Matty:
Yeah, the "got sick and died" bit was me being glib rather than accurate. Sorry about that.
And yes, they had some calculations done much further ahead, but the relatively detailed stuff had yet to be done. A cycle of the calendar was scheduled to end in 2012, with more cycles to come after, and it was the calculations specifically regarding the astronomy of the next cycle that had not yet been done. Since their astronomical calendar was quite detailed for the time, and it just sort of stops there, that's where the notion that the calendar ends comes from.
Posted by: MadGastronomer | January 4, 2010 10:59 AM
Raging Bee:
I know more about this than I want since I listen to Campings "Open Forum" radio call in show regularly.
Camping interprets most biblical prophecies spiritually so that there will be *no* physical signs before the big day.
He is also a hyper-predestination Reform guy, so he is not pre-trib. We are *now* in the great tribulation, and the rapture happens on May 11, when all the Christians are called up to heaven, starting 150 days of judgement.
Posted by: KeithB | January 4, 2010 11:02 AM
Gads, these people have been predicting wrong for centuries. It just goes to show how shockingly stupid and/or delusional the human animal can be that they not only haven't learned that their beliefs are invalid, but that they will NEVER learn.
Posted by: gary l. day | January 4, 2010 11:31 AM
...nd the rapture happens on May 11, when all the Christians are called up to heaven, starting 150 days of judgement
What time zone?
Posted by: Uncle Glenny | January 4, 2010 11:38 AM
Obligatory:
I call dibs on their stuff.
Posted by: Katharine | January 4, 2010 11:46 AM
Although personally, when I think of the "Theology of Seuss" my mind tends to go in to the direction of some guy walking down the street in a Cat-In-The-Hat hat, an acolyte following behind him pulling a cart full of books, the stop, turn and announce, "Now for a reading from the Holy Works." Pick up one of the books, solemnly open it and begin intoning, "Left Foot, Left Foot, Right Foot Right . . . "
Of course, the End-Of-The-World predictions always remind me of Beyond The Fringe: http://www.epicure.demon.co.uk/endworld.html
Posted by: Dave | January 4, 2010 11:55 AM
I want to know what kind of offers they're accepting from us sinners on options for their properties, options exercisable after the end of the world. Think of all the "good work" they can do with those "contributions" from non-believers like me.
Posted by: D. C. Sessions | January 4, 2010 12:39 PM
Of course a civil engineer would have special insight into the mind of God. The designer of man must be a civil engineer himself. Who else would put a sewer system through a recreation area?
(The classics never die.)
Posted by: Abby Normal | January 4, 2010 12:48 PM
According to the "experts" on the History Channel's barely sufferrabled "Nostradmus Effect" the date of 2012 has a great deal of biblical support.
Posted by: History Punk | January 4, 2010 1:09 PM
The very Christian couple that live across the street from has a really nice older Mercedes. I'm calling dibs on it.
Posted by: Owen | January 4, 2010 1:09 PM
So Christ died on April Fool's Day. Not a surprise.
In addition to that:
Atonement + (Completeness x 2) + Heaven = 42
Clearly he's discovered the meaning of life, the universe, and everything.
Posted by: Wes | January 4, 2010 1:21 PM
The funny thing about this obsession with the Rapture is that there is no fundamental difference between seeing the advent of the End Times and dying -- and so far, death is winning about 100 billion to zero.
I guess it's mostly to do with being proven right -- not just to do with the End Times thing, but wanting the whole of their religion paraded in front of everyone else in a manner that makes it undeniable (though how you would be able to rule out an advanced alien species using religion to make mischief is anyone's guess).
Posted by: tacitus | January 4, 2010 1:34 PM
Uncle Glenny:
Camping is particularly coy about that saying that while he knows the day, he does not know the time - "That is God's Business."
Camping, while a YEC, does accept a round earth and time zones.
I just hope that Camping lives long enough to be wrong again. But then I flash on Clarke's "The Nine Billion Names of God"
Posted by: KeithB | January 4, 2010 2:07 PM
Posted by: llewelly | January 4, 2010 2:08 PM
@Wes
I can't help but notice that (Heaven*Heaven)^(Heaven-(Atonement + Completeness)) = 83521
What's interesting is that if you take the number of Bibles printed on Gutenberg's original printing press, 3436, and subtract it from that total you get 80085. Any 12 year-old-boy can tell you that 80085 is calculator for BOOBS. So when you take out atonement, completeness, and the Bible, boobs are a whole lot of heaven. Even more interesting, South Park foretold this revelation. I take that to mean there is no God but Woman and Trey Parker is her Prophet.
Posted by: TSFN | January 4, 2010 3:14 PM
TSFN,
Ah, but you missed the fact that (heaven*heaven) = 17^2 = 289, which in hexadecimal notation is 121, and 289^2 = 83521 which in hexadecimal is 14641. Both 121 and 14641 are numeric palindromes, beginning and ending with The One. If you add up all the digits of both, 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 4 + 6 + 4 + 1 = 19, and 1 + 9 = 10, so it just brings us right back to completeness. And completeness / (heaven - (atonement + completeness)) = atonement.
So, you see, it all comes back around to the need to murder a magical man in order to make up for all the bad stuff you did.
Posted by: Wes | January 4, 2010 4:27 PM
Clearly he's discovered the meaning of life, the universe, and everything.
Um, no, he's only discovered the answer to the ultimate question of life, the Universe, and everything. He still hasn't discovered the question, and without the question, the answer is meaningless.
Posted by: Raging Bee | January 4, 2010 4:54 PM
Yes, but has he discovered a better question for the universe than "What do you get when you multiply 6 by 9?" 'Cause that's why the universe is such a mess, you know.
So, you're saying the Rapture is nothing but a re-write of the "Devil's Due" episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation? (That's the one when a devil figure named "Ardra" returns to Ventax II to claim the planet as payment on a millenia-old debt). And yes, I realize that reference makes me a major, total, geek.
Posted by: CPT_Doom | January 4, 2010 4:58 PM
"God is NOT an alien. That's a liberal conspiracy theory."
ALL the old-time gods are aliens--don't you watch Star Trek??
Posted by: gary l. day | January 4, 2010 5:05 PM
Funnily enough, I am geek enough to have thought of that episode as I was typing my comment, though I am not so geeky as to have known the actual name of the episode. Thus I cannot aspire to your level of pure geekness.
Posted by: tacitus | January 4, 2010 6:03 PM
So what you're really saying is God lost earth in a poker game, and is raising the Prophet Brayton to be his champion for the rematch?
Posted by: Mu | January 4, 2010 6:35 PM
I think you're right--I've always suspected that the whole rapture business is really an elaborate revenge fantasy (against liberals, skeptics, rationalists, people of different religious traditions and cultures, i.e. anyone who sees the world differently than American evangelicals) more than anything else.
Posted by: Sadie Morrison | January 4, 2010 7:34 PM
Here's a plan for May 22, 2011: We find out where Camping's followers plan to gather and we all go to the same place. Rather than joining them, though, we surround them -- at a bit of a distance. Then, at an agreed upon time, we all "react" to the (imaginary) rapture that has suddenly made all of them disappear. Lots of opportunity for really hamming it up. And, of course, when they disperse, we will continue the game and act like they are all invisible.
Posted by: Gerry L | January 4, 2010 9:04 PM
Gerry L
Brilliant. I was trying to think of a suitable prank but nothing seemed workable. Yours is simple and more realistic than trying to arrange for some kind of light show in the sky.
Posted by: Michael Hoaglin | January 4, 2010 10:42 PM
most mock. but I'm listening. dude is humble and been hosting his radio talk show for 40+ years. I've only been listening for 2. Has a dozen books or so, still need to read them. he got a degree in engineering, became independently wealthy with a construction business, sold it, then dedicated his life to studying the bible w/out pocketing a dime from his ministry. none of this makes him correct... but i've seen the time line he's laid out from scripture alone, from creation to May 21, 2011, and it's no joke what's been put into it. if the Bible is a joke, then all this is a joke to you. if it's not, I encourage you to look into his work.
Posted by: imlistening | January 4, 2010 10:55 PM
I don't laugh at them because such death cults sometimes turn into suicide cults - we've had at least one per decade over the past 40 years. White, Applegrove, that Waco cult (I can't remember the chief whacko's name), and so on. Let's not forget the murder and suicide cult in Japan which prefered sarin gas (although that wasn't a jesus cult).
Posted by: MadScientist | January 4, 2010 11:32 PM
Oh, the Waco cult chief whacko was David Koresh (as an Australian group put it in a song: He didn't die in that fire - he's our friend, our buddy, our Messiah!"
@imlistening: Sir Isaac Newton predicted the end of the world on at least two occasions. Surely the genius who understood the motion of the heavenly bodies and how it was the same as the motion of objects on earth has a special view of the mind of god? Or we can take the sensible position that there is no god and that the biblical prophecies of the end of the world are a load of hooey, and so are any contemporary predictions of the imminent end of the world. We know with certainty that our star is slowly changing and that some time in the future the earth will be uninhabitable. If any great extinction should occur before then and destroy all life on the planet is anyone's guess. Camping pulls numbers out of his ass and we scientists can easily dismiss him as a delusional ignoramus; his engineering degree means nothing in this context.
Posted by: MadScientist | January 4, 2010 11:40 PM
@madscientist. i'm a PhD, but i'm humble. you can mock, but I will fear our God. by day i'll keep publishing the peer reviewed literature, but by night i'm fearing, reading, praying.
Posted by: imlistening | January 4, 2010 11:58 PM
@imlistening: Do you really expect to get published in the peer-reviewed literature with your sub-standard grammar? Or are you just thumbing your nose at the people who have to try and read what you wrote? In your comment @48, you lack consistency in verb tense. In your comment @40, you forgot to add the appropriate (or any) pronoun(s) in your 5th sentence, and your entire argument lacks a coherent logical structure. In addition to these critiques of your supposed ability to publish in the peer-reviewed literature, you aren't even consistent in your non-capitalization. Seriously: take a bit more time and invest some more pride in your work.
If you choose not to provide inherent evidence of your ability to actually write a dissertation and continue to publish in the peer-reviewed literature (i.e., provide coherent logical arguments, all presented with good grammar and clarity of thought), then most people here will take your rambling sets of sentences that supposedly amount to some type of logic the cyber-equivalent of the nonsensical scratchings of a mad scrivener.
Posted by: mercurianferret | January 5, 2010 1:29 AM
Re: "i'm a PhD, but i'm humble."
Humble and lovable?
Re: "i'll keep publishing the peer reviewed literature, ..."
Given what you believe, why bother? Sell all you have and give the money to the poor.
Or are you hedging your bets?
Posted by: hje | January 5, 2010 4:04 AM
@imlistening:
Out of curiosity, what field is your PhD in?
Posted by: DaveL | January 5, 2010 5:36 AM
mercurianferret wrote @44 - " In your comment @48, you lack consistency in verb tense."
Wow! Are you psychic or something? :D - Dingo
Posted by: DingoJack | January 5, 2010 7:21 AM
At least some of the Bible is demonstrably a joke if you're going to take it literally. For example, the Flood as described in Genesis? A joke.
Posted by: Josh | January 5, 2010 8:26 AM
Oh come on, it is demonstrably false but a joke? I guess I must have a defective sense of humour.
Posted by: Matty | January 5, 2010 8:43 AM
Well, I definitely think the event as described is absurd enough to be amusing. But I agree with you that "joke" probably isn't the best word; I was merely responding directly to imlistening's use of it in #40.
Posted by: Josh | January 5, 2010 8:55 AM
Haven't you ever heard Cosby's "Noah" routine?
Posted by: DaveL | January 5, 2010 9:14 AM
"I used to know what a cubit was..."
Posted by: Josh | January 5, 2010 9:19 AM
I'm curious, could you reference a journal article that points to the fact that there was no Noah's flood? I have access to most all science databases... so I'll be able to get my hands on it. In the mean time, I'd recommend Harold Camping's short publication "We Are Almost There" showing how he arrived at May 21, 2011 as Christs return from many vantage points with scripture alone.
Posted by: imlistening | January 5, 2010 11:13 PM
i'mlistening wrote:
If "Noah's flood" was a global flood, you can look at pretty much any geology journal for the last century. The geological evidence against a global flood is simply undeniable to any but the most deluded.
Posted by: Ed Brayton | January 5, 2010 11:23 PM
Goodle search: "National Geographic Noah's Flood". Here's link, not sure if this blog will allow link, but here it is: http://www.nationalgeographic.com/blacksea/ax/frame.html
They point to evidence that the Mediterranean sea swelled 7000 years ago. There's no evidence in the N.G. literature that they acknowledge that Harold Camping dated the flood to 4990 BC in his book "Adam When?" many years ago... 4990 BC is exactly 7000 years from 2011. Of course I would't expect them to reference him, I just want to emphasize that these were arrived at independently.
I don't consider these "earthly" expeditions proof of Noah's flood, only a compliment to the Bible which is the only infallible source of truth. Again, I remain humble. Fearing our Lord.
Posted by: imlistening | January 5, 2010 11:33 PM
A quick perusal of Camping's "short" publication tells me that most fundamentalist/evangelical Protestants would judge Camping to be a heretic (not the least of which, by Left Behinders LaHaye and Jenkins--but many other dispensationalists all the way back to Darby). And Ken Ham will have a bone to pick with Camping about the date of creation as well.
But Camping makes the implicit claim to be the one *true* source of knowledge on the matter of the date of the end of the world--wow, now that's a novel claim.
What will these true believers do on the day after?
Posted by: hje | January 5, 2010 11:48 PM
i'mlistening-
That is talking about a local flood, not a global one. The Bible makes clear that Noah's flood was global. If it was local then the entire justification for it - wiping out all of mankind other than Noah's family - is nonsense. The story makes no sense at all if the flood was really local. You could argue that it was just a local flood but the Bible writers only knew of their local area so they thought it was global, but that undermines the whole idea of the Bible being inspired - God certainly knew that a local flood wouldn't wipe out anyone but the local people. If you want to talk about local floods, they've happened thousands of times throughout history. But that has nothing to do with the biblical story.
Posted by: Ed Brayton | January 5, 2010 11:51 PM
The flood stories that proliferated in the middle east probably came from a bad flood that happened on the Euphrates river. The similarities (we could call them "memetic homologies" :P) between the stories show that the vast majority were probably derived from oral tradition. And in a pre-scientific, bronze age society, people would be ignorant enough to think that one bad local flood was a flood of the whole world.
"Again, I remain humble. Fearing our Lord."
It must be miserable living in fear all the time.
Posted by: Tyler DiPietro | January 5, 2010 11:56 PM
Tyler DiPietro "It must be miserable living in fear all the time."
It could be worse. He could be living in Jersey.*
*Take that, place I've never been!
Posted by: Modusoperandi | January 6, 2010 12:26 AM
@56 so Christs return needs a collective agreement amongst scholars? Gods word does not agree with your conclusion:
2Peter v3:3 Knowing this first, that there shall come in the last days scoffers, walking after their own lusts.
Hoping for salvation...
Posted by: imlistening | January 6, 2010 12:55 AM
soyourlisteining:
So what are the chances you and Camping are right, and every other else is wrong? It could even happen! Think of it--every other Christian is sadly deluded, but you and Camping--you *really* know the truth--but alas, secretly, you're starting to have doubts about him too!
And just remember, all of the others are praying that you will see your error before it's too late.
And if you are into quote wars--Jesus has some fine ones for you too, buster. [The proof is left for the reader.]
Please do check back in with us, on May 22, 2011, or at your earliest convenience.
Posted by: hje | January 6, 2010 1:13 AM
Posted by: Modusoperandi | January 6, 2010 1:46 AM
Advice to il:
On May 22, 2011, don't drink the Koolaid or castrate yourself--no matter how convincing you find Camping's numerical evidence as to why it's your next best path to heaven (in light of his discovery of a second *doh!* mathematical error).
Posted by: hje | January 6, 2010 2:34 AM
Jehovah's Witnesses believe that we are living in the time of the end that the Bible speaks of and that Jesus himself spoke of in Matthew 24:3-44. 2 Timothy 3:1-5. They stopped using the cross in 1936, as well as celebrating Christmas around the same time, or a few years before. Also, the earlier ideas about the Egyptian Pyramid were long abandoned by Jehovah's Witnesses around or at least 80 years ago. They do believe that 1914 or there about marked the beginning of the last days of this system, and not the first World War, the Spanish influenza, what Jesus prophesied about earthquakes, the increasing of lawlessness, crime and violence, the Holocaust, the atom bombs, the destruction of the environment, the threat of a nuclear war, and such things as evidence that we are living in the last days. They don't try to pinpoint a date, but point to Jesus words to "Keep awake," that God's day will come as a "thief in the night." The Apostle Peter also stated that in the last days there would be ridiculers who would ridicule that any end would come at all, and he cited Noah's day, how the people ridiculed Noah, and that the end came upon those people suddenly, without warning, and they were swept away, "they took no note" going about their business. Matthew 24:36-39
So, yes Jehovahs' Witnesses have jumped the gun at times with regards to when the end would come, but also, they warn people that the end of this system will come, according to the words of Jesus Christ, and to prepare for that without trying to pinpoint any dates.
Posted by: John Scott | January 7, 2010 6:54 AM
John Scott - We can not validate that Jesus or Peter said any of the things you unequivocably claim they stated. In fact we have no empirical evidence Jesus existed; to believe he or his followers if they did exist had magical powers is irrational bordering on delusion. In addition, so what if those claims were made? Armageddon fantasies were a popular fantasy of tribes during that period and prior who were under the thumb of a foreign force.
Lastly, you shoot yourself in the foot trying to reconcile what Peter supposedly said about end-times to the Noah flood story given we've validated that the primary roots of the flood story are simply not true, e.g., no global flood at that time that wiped out all but those humans on Noah's boat, no mass extinction event at that time. In fact the interglacial period humans have found themselves in during the Halocene period distinguishes itself from other periods of time for its stable sea levels, a primary factor in causing the radiation of humans.
This is a scienceblogs forum, you won't embarrass yourself if you keep your arguments in line with what we empirically understand and have independently validated to the point of reasonable certainty.
Posted by: Michael Heath | January 7, 2010 7:21 AM
John Scott,
Of course they and the chowderhead Camping must dance about one of those verses, Matt 24:34:
I tell you the truth, this generation will certainly not pass away until all these things have happened.
Most literalists are decidedly non-literal with respect to this simple verse (while bragging about their literality wrt the obscure imagery.)
Posted by: heddle | January 7, 2010 7:25 AM
Michael Heath,
That's a bit strong--that would mean that things like Strings, axions, dark energy, parallel universes, Higgs Bosons, etc. are off the table on scienceblogs, so to speak.
Posted by: heddle | January 7, 2010 8:03 AM
I think Michael Heath means that keeping to validated empirical claims is sufficient for John Scott to avoid embarasement not that it is necessary. It may be he could also avoid embarassment by writing knowledgeably on Higgs Bosons but Mr Heath hasn't considered that possibility.
Incidentally I think Michael Heath may be being optimistic. I think it is possible to be embarassed by empirical facts and wouldn't rule out John Scott being capable of it.
Posted by: Matty | January 7, 2010 8:24 AM
Michael H - "...during the Halocene..." means, presumably, after 19 June 2000 when Halo Evolved was released. :) - Dingo
-------------
I think you were reaching for Holocene (11,700 to the present), however Humans began radiating across the Earth around 60,000 years ago during the Tarantian Stage of the
Plasticine, sorry, Pleistocene (126,000 - 11,700 years ago).Posted by: DingoJack | January 7, 2010 8:26 AM
heddle @ 67,
My criticism was John Scott's use of absolute terms for items which we can't validate with reasonably certainty, e.g., "Jesus said", "they (humans during the period Noah is claimed to have lived) were swept away". If one starts with invalidated or falsified assertions, the end result argument can often lead to absurdity as we see here with Mr. Scott's comment post.
Certainly I don't advocate arguments be kept only within the limits of our validated empirical understanding; that's not even an argument so much as a reference. I did mean to imply, admittedly poorly in this case, that one should be modest and frame arguments that extend beyond our empirical understanding in a manner where we encounter an honest parsing of fact and opinion.
In John Scott's case he based his arguments on a premise as if it were absolutely true when in fact we've either falsified such premises (global flood during Noah's time, mass extinction event) or there is no rational reason to accept his assertion as true, Jesus as divine and able to accurately predict events thousands of years into the future.
Forgive my failed attempt at pithiness. I do work on developing my brevity desiring to be pithier, but such attempts occasionally bite me in the ass as we see here.
Posted by: Michael Heath | January 7, 2010 9:10 AM
I stated @ 65:
Dingojack stated @ 69:
Actually, what I was attempting to argue was that an increase in the rate of human technological advancements correlates to the stable sea levels during most of the Halocene epoch. My referring to radiation was both inadvertent (a brain fart) and incorrect; thanks for correcting my false assertion.
What I should have stated @ 65:
Posted by: Michael Heath | January 7, 2010 9:20 AM
Re Heddle
That's a bit strong--that would mean that things like Strings, axions, dark energy, parallel universes, Higgs Bosons, etc. are off the table on scienceblogs, so to speak.
I would agree that string theory, parallel universes, and the Higgs boson, are, at the present time, hypotheses. In fact, it is doubtful that the parallel universe hypothesis could even be verified. However, on the issue of dark energy, there is some empirical evidence for it in the form of the acceleration of the expansion rate of the universe.
Posted by: SLC | January 7, 2010 9:28 AM
Michael H - I'm not trying to be contrarian here, but how exactly did stable sea levels during the Holocene contribute to human technological advancement? - Dingo
Posted by: DingoJack | January 7, 2010 9:29 AM
DJ @ 73 - my citation is at my home library. It's a finding Dr. James Hansen leveraged in his new book, Storms of my Grandchildren. Dr. Hansen uses these findings to reveal the correlation between stable sea levels and a reduction in non-human-caused extinction events, allowing humans time to better exploit a more stable ecology (there's a correlation between sea level changes and extinctions). It's not his research, he's using these findings to note the risk sea level rising will have on our food supply. I'll have to get back to you several hours from now. Cheers.
Great book by the way, just finished it last night so I have yet to write an Amazon review.
Posted by: Michael Heath | January 7, 2010 10:50 AM
"earthquakes, the increasing of lawlessness, crime and violence, the Holocaust, the atom bombs, the destruction of the environment, the threat of a nuclear war, and such things as evidence that we are living in the last days."
Since you find the present so apocalyptically miserable, I invite you to time travel to the past--oh say about 33 AD, and see how wonderful that world was. No war, earthquakes, famines, or pestilence. No genocide or terrorism. Free men and women, boy and girl, living in peace and harmony with each other and nature. Liberty and justice for all. O brave old world! That had such people in't! And do be sure you demand your human rights from the powers that were.
Posted by: hje | January 7, 2010 12:00 PM
DJ,
Dr. Hansen's Storms of my Grandchildren claims the following (without footnotes for these claims except sea levels):
Pg. 39 - 40:
And
Page 84 - 85:
*Figure 3 is also on Dr. Hansen's website found here: http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Storms/
Posted by: Michael Heath | January 7, 2010 3:07 PM
If I may go off on a tangent, if dark energy is real and its influence is increasing, it should be possible to estimate the time remaining to the "Big Rip" when the cosmic repulsive force gets strong enough to rip even atomic nuclei apart.
Of course, a science fiction author (J. G. Ballard) beat me to it with the short story "The Voices of Time" -NOT recommended reading if you are prone to depression !
Posted by: Birger Johansson | January 11, 2010 6:52 AM
well, if you don't believe may 21 2011 is the end, at least you won't worry about being destroyed by Holy God until it actually happens. So sonce you don't agree, and you don't fear this date, you will not be losing any sleep until yo see it happen. "their faces shall be as flames" Isaiah
Posted by: dontregret | February 9, 2010 11:07 PM
And the award for the most pointless comment in blogging history goes to...
Posted by: Sadie Morrison | February 9, 2010 11:14 PM
I assume that Don T. Regret will become an atheist, deist or liberal Christian (or any other number of possibilities excluding whatever option Don's aligned with right now) after that date passes with no world ending, rather than handwave away the failure of the prediction as, say, forgetting to carry the 1 in Biblemath.
Posted by: Modusoperandi | February 9, 2010 11:36 PM